Zee Entertainment
BSE SENSEX
31,814
S&P CNX
9,980
9 October 2017
Company Update | Sector: Media
CMP: INR523
TP: INR630 (+20%)
Buy
Acquires 9X Media, expands music portfolio
Additional channels to contribute 5% of domestic ad revenue
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Zee announced the acquisition of 9X Media’s six music channels for INR1.6b, which
will be paid in cash. These six channels across four languages – 9XM (Latest
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Bollywood), 9X Jalwa (Evergreen Hindi), 9X Jhakaas (Marathi), 9X Tashan (Punjabi),
Y/E MARCH
2017 2018E 2019E
9XO (English), and 9X Bajao (Hindi Classics) – will allow Zee to expand its portfolio
Net Sales
64.3
64.6
75.9
from the current 33 channels to 39 channels.
EBITDA
Adj. NP
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Share (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Div. Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div. Yield (%)
19.3
14.5
13.9
80.7
89.2
19.3
20.7
13.0
37.4
5.8
24.5
0.5
20.3
13.1
12.2
-12.4
95.4
14.7
15.7
22.7
42.6
5.4
22.8
0.5
26.9
18.2
17.8
46.4
106.8
18.7
19.5
19.0
29.1
4.9
16.9
0.6
Z IN
960.5
497.9 / 7.8
575/429
0/-12/-19
1087.0
56.9
Zee has acquired 9X Media’s six music channels for INR1.6b (1x FY17 sales).
9X Media holds ~26% share in the music ad market.
The acquisition allows Zee to widen its TV portfolio and also provides channels to
market its own music/movie production.
We maintain our Buy recommendation for Zee, with a TP of INR630.
Has acquired 9X Media’s six music channels for INR1.6b in cash
Acquired portfolio to contribute 5% of domestic ad revenue
9X Media’s FY17 revenue at INR1.6b is equivalent to 5% of Zee’s domestic ad
revenue and 2% of its consolidated revenue. At the EBITDA level, 9X Media had a
loss of INR51m in FY17. EBITDA margin was 7% in FY16, which turned negative to -
3% in FY17. Over the next 2-3 years, revenue growth coupled with cost synergies
should drive margin accretion.
Benefits for Zee
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Jun-17 Mar-17 Jun-16
Promoter
43.1
43.1
43.1
DII
5.7
4.5
3.8
FII
44.7
46.4
48.1
Others
6.6
6.1
5.0
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Zee Entertainmen
Sensex - Rebased
700
625
550
475
400
1. Deeper inroads to music genre:
Music is 3% of the total TV market, with about
INR6b industry size. 9X Media holds a sizeable ~26% revenue market share. Zee
already has presence in the music genre through Zetc channel, but 9X Media
should allow it to expand reach significantly with a dual brand strategy. It
should also allow it to widen its target market through regional music, with
foray into the Punjabi market.
2. Wider marketing channel for own music/movie production:
These channels
will complement Zee’s music label and movie production business. Currently,
the music production business may be a miniscule 2-3% of total revenue. 9X
Media’s strong distribution will support Zee’s own music and movie production
reach, supporting management guidance of healthy revenue contribution from
movie/music business over the next 3-5 years.
Expect healthy growth; remain positive with TP of INR630
The low revenue/EBITDA contribution does not change our earnings estimates. We
maintain our adjusted EPS estimates of INR12/18 for FY18/19, with CAGR of 13%
over FY17-19. We believe Zee’s efforts to (a) widen TV genre/language presence,
and (b) increased focus on movie/music production and events business should
allow it to sustain healthy earnings growth over the next 3-5 years. RoE of ~20% by
FY19-20 should support healthy valuations.
Buy
with a TP of INR630.
Aliasgar Shakir
(Aliasgar.Shakir@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1565
Hafeez Patel
(Hafeez.Patel@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1568
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.