16 October 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Financials
Bajaj Finance
Buy
BSE SENSEX
32,634
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,231
BAF IN
Strong growth continues; RoE of 20%+ despite large capital raise
546.9
Bajaj Finance’s (BAF) 2QFY18 PAT increased 37% YoY to INR5.57b (2%
843.8/13.1
miss). Performance across parameters was largely in line with the trend.
1578 / 762
AUM continued its robust growth trajectory (+38% YoY, +5% QoQ) to
7/50/63
reach INR721b, led by impressive growth in consumer finance (+42% YoY)
1518
and commercial business (+57% YoY).
42.1
CMP: INR1,889
TP: INR2,300(+22%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March
2017 2018E
NII
54.7
77.4
PPP
36.4
51.7
PAT
18.4
26.2
EPS (INR)
32.0
45.7
EPS Gr. (%)
43.6
42.8
BV/Sh. (INR)
167
285
RoA on AUM (%)
3.3
3.5
RoE (%)
21.6
20.2
Payout (%)
14.0
12.5
Valuations
P/E (x)
59.0
41.3
P/BV (x)
11.3
6.6
Div. Yield (%)
0.2
0.3
2019E
104.8
73.1
36.5
63.7
39.3
339
3.6
20.4
12.5
29.7
5.6
0.4
Cross-sell personal loans grew 54% YoY to INR76b (11
th
consecutive
quarter of 50%+ AUM growth).
The size of this book is now within
sniffing distance of the CD financing book (INR80b).
This validates the
cross-sell expertise of BAF’s business model – on-board the customer
through CD loans, and then cross-sell personal and other loans.
Our
estimate is that BAF has tapped just ~15% of its CD financing customer
base for personal loans, implying huge opportunity ahead.
Asset quality and margins were stable QoQ. Management remains
cautious on LAP and SME growth ahead, due to hyper competition and
the lagged impact of demon and GST.
Valuation and view:
BAF, a dominant player in the consumer durables
financing segment, continues to reap the benefits of healthy consumer
demand, increasing its market share in consumer and also other
businesses. Within the consumer financing business, it has demonstrated
its ability to cross-sell, as evident from strong growth in the personal
loans portfolio over the past three years. Its focus on the SME and
commercial lending segments may depress margins and RoE, but will
keep growth strong. At the same time, it is proactive in detecting early
warning signals with regard to asset quality. We maintain our estimates
for FY18/20 and reiterate
Buy
with a target price of INR2,300 (30x
September 2019 EPS, implied 6x PBV).
Research Analyst: Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
| Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540
| Anirvan Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.