17 October 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Financials
Axis Bank
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
32,609
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,234
AXSB IN
2,382.8
1,153.3 / 18.9
547 / 425
-2/-8/-20
4364
71.3
CMP: INR513
TP: INR470 (-8%)
Weak operating performance; asset quality woes deepen
AXSB reported weak numbers, with net profit plummeting to INR4.32b (-67%
QoQ), dragged by higher provisions and weak revenue growth.
NII came in flat on a YoY basis (~4% miss), impacted by moderation in yields
(33bp) and interest reversals on slipped accounts (~6bp). NIM thus shrunk to
3.45% from 3.63% in 1QFY18. Other income also remained tepid, resulting in
1% YoY growth in total revenues.
Fresh slippages spiked to INR89.36b (9% annualized), driven by NPL divergence
of INR48.67b (nine accounts – 1 steel, 3 power, 1 IT/ITES and 4 miscellaneous;
total systemic exposure INR400b), according to the RBI, which AXSB
downgraded this quarter. Corporate slippages stood at INR81.1b, accounting
for ~90% of total slippages. However, corporate slippages within the core
business also stood elevated at ~INR22b, while retail and SME slippages were
fairly controlled. Exposure to IBC cases stood at INR70.41b, on which AXSB
provided another INR5.05b, taking total provisions to INR38.86b (55%
coverage).
The funded watch-list declined to INR60.52b – 64% in power (INR79.41b in
1QFY18), while other stressed assets fell to INR40.35b. AXSB increased its
credit cost guidance to 220-260bp (from 175-225bp earlier).
Other highlights: a) Total system exposure of divergence-related accounts is
INR400b. b) Average CASA ratio stood at 46%
Valuation and view:
We cut our FY18/19E earnings by 17%/21%, and believe that
earnings normalization for AXSB has now been pushed back. We revise our
slippage/credit cost estimates (now building in 2.7% for FY18E/1.9% for FY19E) and
also fine-tune our opex/yield estimates. We thus expect PPoP to stay flat in FY18
and grow at 13% over FY19. Continued pressure on asset quality and protracted
earnings recovery will remain a drag on the stock performance. We expect RoAs of
~0.97% and RoEs of ~11.6% in FY19E. We revise our PT to INR470, based on 2.0x
September 2019E ABV and 13.8x September 2019E EPS. Maintain
Neutral.
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E March
NII
OP
NP
NIM (%)
EPS (INR)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoA (%)
P/E(X)
P/BV (X)
2018E 2019E 2020E
186.4 210.7 246.4
176.2 198.5 234.0
43.4
71.7
91.8
3.2
3.1
3.1
18.1
29.9
38.3
245.6 271.6 305.3
7.6
11.6
13.3
0.7
1.0
1.1
28.3
17.1
13.4
2.1
1.9
1.7
Research Analyst: Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
| Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540
| Anirvan Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.