24 October 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Financials
HDFC Bank
Buy
BSE SENSEX
32,607
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,208
HDFCB IN
Robust PPoP growth; operating leverage will continue to aid earnings
2,562.5
HDFC Bank (HDFCB) reported strong 30% YoY growth in PPoP (~4% beat), led
4,779 / 73.5
by steady revenue growth and controlled opex. However, higher provisions
1877 / 1159
(HDFCB made contingent provisions toward one large account that
0/12/32
underwent 5:25 restructuring in Feb-16) resulted in 20% YoY growth in PAT.
2821
Loans grew 22% YoY/4% QoQ to INR6.05t. Incremental growth in the quarter
78.9
CMP: INR1,865 TP: INR2,150(+15%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
2018E 2019E
NII
407.0 481.0
OP
329.3 395.2
NP
176.1 217.0
NIM (%)
4.6
4.5
EPS (INR)
68.7
84.7
EPS Gr. (%)
21.0
23.2
BV/Sh. (INR)
381.4 449.8
ABV/Sh. (INR)
357.3 421.8
RoE (%)
18.8
20.4
RoA (%)
1.9
1.9
Valuations
P/E(X)
27.1
22.0
P/BV (X)
4.9
4.1
P/ABV (X)
5.2
4.4
Div. Yield (%)
0.8
0.9
2020E
580.0
485.2
270.1
4.5
105.4
24.5
537.2
503.7
21.4
2.0
17.7
3.5
3.7
1.0
was driven by retail loans (+29% YoY/7% QoQ), resulting in an increase in its
loan mix share to 55%. Business banking, personal loans and credit card
continue to report strong growth within the retail segment.
Fee income growth stood at 24% YoY, which coupled with strong FX income
and treasury gains of INR3.84b, resulted in 24% YoY growth in other income.
CASA deposits held flat on a sequential basis, while term deposits grew 4.7%
QoQ. CASA ratio thus moderated 110bp QoQ to 42.9% (48% in 4QFY17 –
after demonetization).
Asset quality remained largely stable; however, the bank made contingent
provisions of INR4b toward an account that underwent restructuring in Feb-
16 and remains standard in the books. Provisioning coverage ratio thus
improved 119bp QoQ to 66.3%.
Valuation and view:
HDFCB has been consistently gaining market share across
most products in the retail segment (personal loans, business banking, credit
cards and auto loans), and appears well poised to maintain this traction.
Operating expenses have been under control and resulted in a consistent decline
in the C/I ratio to ~42%. With Tier-1 capital of 13.3%, strong
sourcing/distribution capability and significant digitization initiatives, the bank is
well placed to benefit from the expected pick-up in the economic growth cycle.
We arrive at an SOTP based valuation of INR2,150 for the bank (4.4x Sept-19E
BV for the bank at INR2,050 compared to our earlier valuation of INR1.900 for
the standalone bank at 4x Jun-19E BV, and INR100 for subsidiaries) and
maintain Buy.
Research Analyst: Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
| Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540
| Anirvan Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.