27 October 2017
2QFY18 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
ITC
BSE SENSEX
33,157
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,323
ITC IN
12,147.4
3,617.6 / 56.1
353/222
-2/-14/-8
3546.0
100.0
CMP: INR269
TP: INR280 (+3%)
Neutral
Cigarette volume decline higher than expected; outlook muted
ITC’s 2QFY18 net revenue grew 1.1% YoY
(est. of +2.5%) to INR97.6b. EBITDA
margin expanded 90bp YoY (est. of +160bp). EBITDA thus grew 3.6% YoY to
INR37.6b (est. of +6.6%). Adj. PAT grew 5.6% YoY (est. of +9.5%) to INR26.4b.
Cigarette volume is likely to have declined ~6% YoY,
higher than our
expectation of a 2% fall. We reckon the proportion of sub-65mm cigarette
sales to have increased further. For cigarette, revenue declined 2.3% YoY, while
EBIT grew 2.3% YoY (320bp expansion of EBIT margin on gross sales). Cigarette
EBIT growth was the second weakest in 10 quarters, following a 1.7% increase
in 3QFY17. Outlook appears tough for the near term.
‘FMCG – Others’ sales were up 5.3% YoY to INR28b
(est. of +4%), with EBIT
profit of INR205m compared to INR33m loss in 2QFY17. The accompanying
result press release stated that a) comparable sales growth for ‘FMCG - Others’
was ~10% and b) it gained market share in major FMCG categories, particularly
in atta, potato chips, premium cream biscuits and deodorants.
Hotels, Agri and Paper revenues grew 1.0%, 4.6% and 4.7% YoY, respectively.
Margin in the paper business expanded 240bp YoY to 20.9%, the highest in 13
quarters. Hotel business reported a 120bp margin improvement, while agri
business witnessed a 280bp EBIT margin contraction.
Valuation view:
Results were below our estimates, leading to a 2-3% cut in our
FY18/FY19 EPS. Cigarette volumes are likely to be under pressure following the
12% price increase between February and July. Valuations of 26.8x FY19E EPS
are fair for a business facing earnings risks from higher GST rates. While
eventual diversification away from cigarette (86% of total EBIT in FY17) to
other businesses is possible, as of now, the fate of the business is contingent
on regulations governing the cigarette business
.
We maintain
Neutral
with a
TP of INR280 (26x September FY19E EPS, 10% discount to three-year average).
(INR Million)
FY18
2Q
3QE
-6.0
-3.0
97,639 96,183
1.1
4.0
60,024 58,339
37,615 37,844
3.6
6.7
38.5
39.3
2,824
3,065
290
136
4,942
7,567
39,443 42,210
13,045 13,929
33.1
33.0
26,398 28,281
5.6
6.9
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
396.4 410.7 456.2
EBITDA
145.8 155.6 171.7
NP
102.0 110.6 121.9
EPS (INR)
8.4
9.1
10.0
EPS Gr. (%)
9.4
8.5
10.2
BV/Sh. (INR)
37.2
37.5
40.9
RoE (%)
23.5
24.4
25.6
RoCE (%)
22.6
23.5
24.7
P/E (x)
32.0
29.5
26.8
P/BV (x)
7.2
7.2
6.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
21.0
19.6
17.6
Div. Yield
2.1
2.4
2.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Cigarette Vol Gr (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
Total Exp
EBITDA
Growth (%)
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interes t
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
3.0
100,540
9.8
65,278
35,262
8.4
35.1
2,613
101
4,205
36,754
12,907
35.1
23,847
10.1
FY17
2Q
3Q
4.0
-1.0
96,607 92,484
9.8
4.3
60,307 57,020
36,300 35,464
7.3
2.1
37.6
38.3
2,684
2,665
107
136
4,754
6,879
38,262 39,542
13,262 13,075
34.7
33.1
25,000 26,467
10.5
5.7
FY17
4QE
3.0
122,253
9.9
79,584
42,669
10.1
34.9
3,135
159
4,645
44,020
13,675
31.1
30,345
13.7
1.5
400,887
9.6
255,106
145,780
6.3
36.4
10,380
230
19,859
155,030
53,021
34.2
102,009
9.5
FY18E
-1.3
415,622
3.7
260,030
155,592
6.7
37.4
11,707
689
21,923
165,119
54,489
33.0
110,630
8.5
4Q
0.0
111,255
14.0
72,502
38,754
7.5
34.8
2,418
-115
4,021
40,471
13,777
34.0
26,695
12.1
1Q
1.0
99,547
-1.0
62,083
37,464
6.2
37.6
2,682
104
4,768
39,446
13,841
35.1
25,605
7.4
FY18
2QE
-2.0
99,022
2.5
60,329
38,693
6.6
39.1
2,953
107
5,229
40,862
13,484
33.0
27,378
9.5
Var.
-1.4%
-2.8%
-3.5%
-3.6%
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
– Research Analyst
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1545
Vishal Punmiya
– Research Analyst
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1547