9 November 2017
Q2FY18 Results Update | Sector: Automobiles
Tata Motors
Buy
BSE SENSEX
33,251
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,309
TTMT IN
Above est; Strong performance at both JLR & India business
3396.6
Consol
EBITDA increased 20% YoY (+80% QoQ) to INR89.4b (est INR72.5b),
1,495.5 / 23.0
translating into EBITDA margin expansion of 90bp YoY (+4100bp QoQ) at
553/358
12.6% (est 10.5%). Adj PAT increased 65% YoY to INR24.4b (est INR12.1b).
-1/-8/-40
JLR – Lower fx hedge loss, lower other expenses & Op. leverage drives
3557
EBITDA:
Net sales at GBP6.3b (in-line) grew 11.5% YoY (+12.9% QoQ) led
63.6
CMP: INR440 TP: INR575(+31%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2018E
2019E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
2,959
3,622
EBITDA
371.8
577.3
PAT
83.6
220.0
EPS (INR)
24.6
64.8
Gr. (%)
24.2
163.2
BV/Sh (INR)
195.6
261.6
RoE (%)
13.4
28.3
RoCE (%)
7.0
16.6
P/E (x)
17.9
6.8
P/BV (x)
2.3
1.7
2020E
3,923
610.1
228.1
67.2
3.7
330.0
22.7
14.3
6.6
1.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
by volume growth of 6.2% YoY and realization growth of 5% YoY. EBITDA
margins expanded 90bp YoY (+390bp QoQ) to 11.8% (v/s est 10.7%) driven
by lower fx hedge loss, lower other expenses and operating leverage.
Further higher share of China JV PAT, fx gains and lower depreciation
boosted adj. PAT growth to 26% to GBP308m (est GBP169m).
S/A – Better mix and cost reduction propels EBITDA margins:
Revenues
grew 35% YoY (+53% QoQ) to INR138.9b (est INR130.9b) led by volume
and realisation growth of 14% YoY and 18% respectively. EBITDA margin
came in at 7% (est. 4.5%), expanded 370bp YoY (+700bp QoQ), driven by
better mix, cost reduction initiatives and op. leverage. As a result, net loss
was lower at INR2.9b (est INR4.7b), as against loss of INR5.8b in 2QFY17.
Earnings call highlights:
a) Maintains 10% retail growth guidance for FY18
(implied residual growth of 17%), despite weak outlook in key developed
markets. b) EBIT margin target of 8-10% in medium term factors in for
lower margins of EVs & higher variable marketing spend. c) Though
competitive intensity remains high, especially in sedan segment, JLR is
averse to chasing volume at any price. d) Fx hedge losses to reduce from
4QFY18 onwards, as reflected in sharp reduction in unrealized current Fx
hedge losses to GBP793m as of Sep-17 (v/s GBP1.1b as of Jun-17). e) India
business PAT breakeven in FY18, led by cost reduction & volume growth.
Valuation & view:
We have upgraded consol EPS by 23%/6% for FY18/19,
as we build in margin expansion at JLR and S/A business. The stock trades
at 6.8x FY19E EPS & 2.9x EV/EBITDA. Maintain
Buy
with TP of INR575.
FY18
FY17
FY18E
1Q
2Q
3QE
4QE
2QE Var (%)
138,476 153,210 163,000 200,035 600,806 654,722 153,210
0.0
47,483 48,137 48,377 49,451 45,515
48,474 47,768
0.8
7.9
11.8
12.4
16.1
12.1
12.5
10.7
110bp
109,692 153,321 148,268 169,407 542,322 580,688 153,321
0.0
829,080 905,798 869,566 917,244 818,038 885,394 853,952
6.1
0.0
7.0
6.3
7.8
3.8
5.8
4.5
250bp
-4,671 -2,953 -3,526
426 -21,341 -10,723 -4,714
584,934 706,907 710,803 956,107 2,696,925 2,958,750 688,159
2.7
-10.0
11.3
11.2
23.8
-1.2
9.7
4.42
49,648 89,383 92,053 119,972 295,887 351,056 72,494
23.3
8.5
12.6
13.0
12.5
11.0
11.9
10.5
210bp
-5,145 30,099 28,603 58,339 82,002 111,896 12,994
131.6
-42,515
-715
0
0 27,955
0
0
37,370 30,814 28,603 58,339 54,047 111,896 12,994
137.1
32.3
35.4
32.0
25.5
60.2
42.0
32.0
3,045 24,366 24,750 48,996 46,581
87,167 12,092
101.5
(89.5)
64.8 (1,205)
13.3
-64.3
87.1
-46.4
Quarterly performance (INR m)
Y/E March
(Consolidated)
JLR vols. (incl JV)
JLR Realizations (GBP/unit)
JLR EBITDA (%)
S/A vol. (units)
S/A Realizations (INR/unit)
S/A EBITDA (%)
S/A PAT (INR m)
Net Op Income
Growth (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margins (%)
PBT before EO Exp
EO Exp/(Inc)
PBT after EO Exp
Tax rate (%)
Adj PAT
Growth (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
FY17
1Q
2Q
3Q
134,334 139,227 152,245
44,338 45,642 46,200
12.5
10.9
10.1
126,839 134,397 132,553
811,243 765,059 769,912
6.5
3.3
1.4
258 -5,793 -10,452
650,047 635,376 639,330
7.6
3.3
-9.4
90,275 74,298 62,403
13.9
11.7
9.8
34,718 21,304 13,071
9,204 11,311 7,085
25,514 9,993 5,986
28.2
42.5 144.8
28,970 14,788 -2,239
(39.0)
61.1 (107.2)
4Q
175,000
45,746
14.5
148,533
914,725
4.1
-5,369
772,172
-2.9
108,012
14.0
52,011
356
51,655
24.0
43,229
(25.0)
Jinesh Gandhi – Research Analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Deep Shah – Research Analyst
(Deep.Shah@MotilalOswal.com) |
Suneeta Kamath – Research Analyst
(Suneeta.Kamath@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.