8 December 2017
Market snapshot
Equities - India
Close
Chg .%
Sensex
32,949
1.1
Nifty-50
10,167
1.2
Nifty-M 100
19,831
1.4
Equities-Global
Close
Chg .%
S&P 500
2,637
0.3
Nasdaq
6,813
0.5
FTSE 100
7,321
-0.4
DAX
13,045
0.4
Hang Seng
11,151
-0.1
Nikkei 225
22,498
1.4
Commodities
Close
Chg .%
Brent (US$/Bbl)
62
1.6
Gold ($/OZ)
1,247
-1.3
Cu (US$/MT)
6,530
0.2
Almn (US$/MT)
1,992
-0.5
Currency
Close
Chg .%
USD/INR
64.6
0.1
USD/EUR
1.2
0.0
USD/JPY
112.8
0.5
YIELD (%)
Close
1MChg
10 Yrs G-Sec
7.1
0.02
10 Yrs AAA Corp
7.8
0.02
Flows (USD b)
7-Dec
MTD
FIIs
-0.2
-0.6
DIIs
0.1
0.8
Volumes (INRb)
7-Dec
MTD*
Cash
311
302
F&O
11,630
6,357
Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg
YTD.%
23.7
24.2
38.2
YTD.%
17.8
26.6
2.5
13.6
18.7
17.7
YTD.%
12.5
8.2
18.2
16.9
YTD.%
-4.9
12.2
-3.6
YTDchg
0.5
0.2
YTD
7.9
13.5
YTD*
307
5,690
Today’s top research idea
IOCL: Paradip refinery - Growing bigger and stronger
Running at full utilization
Our recent visit to IOC’s Paradip refinery has strengthened our confidence in
the company’s refining potential.
The refinery’s mother unit is operating at full utilization, while secondary units
are also running at optimum levels. The refinery has started taking heavy crude.
According to management, there is significant leeway to increase utilization of
the secondary units by buying intermediate feedstock. This would further
support the GRM.
The refinery is expected to produce 27% petrol, in addition to 42% diesel, 5%
ATF and 8.6% petcoke. Fuel & loss is ~10%, but will come down with offtake of
~7mmscmd of RLNG, once the Dhamra LNG terminal is operational.
The refinery is expected to commission its Polypropylene capacity by December
2018.
Research covered
Cos/Sector
Financials
IOCL
Colgate
Key Highlights
Insolvency and Bankruptcy resolution
Paradip refinery: Growing bigger and stronger
Stability gradually returning, play on rural growth
Piping hot news
Government may allow BS-IV vehicle registration beyond April 1, 2020
In what may come as a relief to the automotive industry, the government is
considering allowing registration of Bharat Stage-IV vehicles beyond April 1,
2020, which is the deadline to adopt the BS-VI standards on emission…
Chart of the Day: OMCs – Higher refining margins to sustain
Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

In the news today
Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link
1
Investor flow into equity
mutual funds at Rs 20,308 cr in
November
Equity mutual funds (MFs) saw net
investor inflow of Rs 20,308 crore
in November, despite weakness in
the stock market.This is the
second time after August that
equity schemes got monthly
inflow in excess of Rs 20,000
crore…
2
ArcelorMittal, SAIL are said to sign India joint venture deal soon
Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) has finalized terms for a Rs6,000 crore
($929 million) plant with ArcelorMittal to cater to the automobile sector, a
joint venture deal that’s been in the works for more than two years,
according to a person familiar with the development. The agreement for
the automotive grade steel plant is likely to be approved next week by
SAIL’s board, the person said, asking not to be identified as the matter
wasn’t public. The two steel producers are in talks with the state
governments of Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat to acquire land for the
project…
3
Jet Airways Q2 profit slumps
91% to Rs50 crore on higher
fuel expenses
Jet Airways (India) Ltd said its
standalone profit fell 91% to
Rs49.63 crore in Q2 from Rs549.02
crore a year earlier, because of
weak demand from the Middle
East, lower airfares and higher fuel
prices. Revenue fell 0.25% to
Rs5,758.18 crore in the quarter
from a year earlier…
4
SEBI may let mutual funds
enter commodity derivatives
sector
The Securities and Exchange Board
of India (Sebi) has proposed
allowing mutual funds and
portfolio management services
(PMS) firms to invest in
commodity derivatives. In a
discussion paper issued on
Thursday,…
5
A coal mine in Indonesia’s
Kalimantan Province run by a unit
of Mumbai-listed Mercator Ltd has
been shut since October 15 after
the mining company’s local
partners dragged the Indian firm
to court over a dispute on
shareholding. Mercator is facing
three court cases and three police
cases in Indonesia, a development
that could spoil its plans to sell the
mine, which has been a cash cow
for the group led by HK Mittal.
From a purely ship-owning
company, Mercator has diversified
into coal, oil and gas, commodity
transportation and dredging…
Mercator in rough waters as
Indonesian arm shuts
6
India to achieve ‘electricity for
all’ by early 2020s: IEA
Half a billion people have gained
access to electricity in India since
2000, almost doubling the
country’s electrification rate,
according to the World Energy
Access report released on
Wednesday by the International
Energy Agency (IEA). This
“remarkable” growth puts India
on course to achieving access to
electricity for all in the early
2020s, the report added…
8 December 2017
7
SpiceJet’s Ajay Singh pledges
more shares amid dispute with
Kalanithi Maran
Ajay Singh, the promoter of low-
fare airline SpiceJet Ltd, has
pledged more shares over the past
few months to help the airline’s
finances even as it awaits a key
verdict on a share transfer dispute
with former promoter Kalanithi
Maran…
2

Sector Update | 8 December 2017
Financials
Insolvency and Bankruptcy resolution – Speed set to accelerate
Sector-wise distribution of
combined list – by total
exposure
Although the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) was approved in May 2016, the
activity under this code has picked up significantly only from July 2017 after the Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) identified 12 large accounts forming 25% of the banking system’s
GNPAs for resolution under the IBC. With the resolution timeline on these cases coming
close, we met several bankers and relevant industry personnel to assess the progress and
understand the implications of this powerful law. While the recovery rate on the
announced resolution stands paltry (~90% haircut in some cases), the outlook for certain
metal and power assets is much more promising. The government and Insolvency and
Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) have amended the IBC and tightened the eligibility norms
in bidding for stressed assets. While these measures might lead to higher haircuts, we
believe that, over the longer term, it would prevent the re-entry of willful defaulters in the
system and promote transparency. According to our scenario analysis, resolution of NCLT
cases (RBI’s list 1 & 2) at 65% base case LGD should positively impact PSU banks’ FY19E
ABV by 6% to 26%, while private banks will see a modest ABV impact of 3% to 5%.
Auto Anc -- 6%
Textile -- 6%
Electronics --
12%
Metals --
43%
EPC -- 28%
Source: RBI, Company, MOSL
376 cases referred to NCLT; only one-third from financial creditors
A total of 376 cases have been referred to the NCLT over the first nine months of
CY17. A majority of these cases (i.e. 187) have been filed by the operational
creditors, 122 cases by the financial creditors and the remaining cases by the
corporate debtors. Resolution of these accounts is expected to be a major trigger
for corporate lenders. However, the beginning appears to be modest, with only 2
accounts taken up for resolution (at hefty haircuts), 7 accounts directed to undergo
liquidation, and another 14 witnessing further appeals.
More operational creditors
than financial creditors in the
cases referred
No. of Resolutions
Processes
Quarter
Total
Initiated by
*
**
#
FC OC
CD
Q4FY17 9
Q1FY18 31
7
59
21
35
37
125
RBI’s list 1 and 2 alone form ~45% of total GNPLs; of this, Metals, EPC and
Electronics account for ~82%
The RBI has directed banks to file 12 cases as part of its first list (of which 11 cases
were admitted), and has suggested for another 28 cases to be referred by end-
December if they are not resolved by other means. These are key accounts together
amounting to INR4t+ or ~45% of the total systemic GNPAs. We note that of this,
Metal, EPC and Electronics form nearly 43%, 28% and 12%, respectively, while
Textile and Power form 6% and 3%, respectively (refer exhibits 5 and 6 for details on
composition by major sectors).
Q2FY18 82 101
31
214
Till Date 122 167
87
376
Source: IBBI, Company, MOSL
* Financial Creditor
**
Operational Creditor
# Corporate Debtor
Many systemically important cases will get decided over next few months
While the resolution success through NCLT has been limited so far, the impending
decision on several steel assets – with many of them receiving active interest from
bidders – will make things interesting for corporate lenders. We expect resolution
process for these cases to get completed over the next few months, as the
resolution deadline draws close. Please refer exhibit 13 for admission dates.
8 December 2017
3

Metal and Power accounts have better recovery prospects; EPC & Service
sector accounts to remain a drag
We note that Metal and Power assets form bulk of the NCLT referred cases (~45% in
the two lists together). Healthy recovery in these sectors are thus critical to assess
the success of the NCLT route.
We are positive on recoveries in stressed steel assets (43% of the total list of
NCLT referred cases) due to – a) steel price cycle turning positive, leading to an
improvement in the debt-servicing ability, b) improvement in capacity utilization
across major industry players, and, c) higher interest among investors in
purchasing steel assets (Essar Steel and Bhushan Steel have already witnessed
healthy interest from bidders).
Our interaction with several corporate bankers suggests that the recovery rates
in power and manufacturing companies should also fare relatively well, as
power tariffs have firmed up recently, while it is the capitalizing of interest and
absence of PPAs that have made the underlying assets vulnerable. At adequate
haircuts and with proper PPAs in place, the power assets (thermal) are likely to
generate stable cash flows and can sustain as performing assets.
However, lenders are wary on a recovery trend in the EPC & Services sector
accounts, where the recovery rate is expected to be quite muted. This could
thus act as a drag on overall recovery rate arrived via NCLT route.
Tightening of bidding norms to cause near-term pain…
The government has recently passed an ordinance that prohibits willful defaulters
from bidding for assets. The following categories of promoters are also barred from
bidding – a) accounts that are classified as NPA for more than one year and are
unable to settle their overdue amount before submission of the resolution plan, b)
accounts that have executed an enforceable guarantee in favor of an insolvent
company being resolved under NCLT, and, c) related
entities/promoters/management. While the law is clearly aimed to prevent re-entry
of willful defaulters and thoroughly cleanse the system, it can potentially prevent
genuine promoters and/or related investors (such as global distressed asset
investors) from bidding for these assets. This can lower the number of eligible
bidders, and thus, result in higher LGDs for lenders. However, interpretation of the
clauses is subjective at this stage, and we await further clarity here. Our interaction
with bankers suggests that it would be even more difficult to find a buyer for smaller
assets, and thus, the loss rate on such accounts is likely to increase.
…but change in regulations will aid resolution for operating companies
One of the many challenges faced in resolution of accounts under IBC was the RBI’s
norm of classifying interim debt as NPA, which prevented lenders from offering
further funds to troubled borrowers. However, RBI has recently relaxed norms and
allowed interim debt to be classified as standard, which will encourage bankers to
go for interim lending in case of operating companies witnessing cash crunch, and
thus, help them turnaround.
8 December 2017
4

Our scenario analysis of 55-75% LGDs implies 3% to 39% impact on ABV for
PSUs; Private banks to witness modest impact of 1% to 8%
Our scenario analysis of 55-75% LGDs for the sector shows that PSU banks will
witness a positive impact of 3% to 39% on FY19E ABV from the resolution of the
NCLT cases. Among PSUs, the FY19E ABV impact is expected to be minimum for
Indian Bank (3% for 75% haircut, and 8% for 55% haircut) and the maximum for
Union Bank of India (14% for 75% haircut, and 39% for 75% haircut). Among private
banks, ICICIBC and AXSB will see modest 1% to 8% positive impact on ABV under the
scenarios that we have analyzed. We maintain our preference for SBIN, ICICIBC and
AXSB amongst corporate lenders.
Sensitivity analysis of FY19E ABV to haircut taken on NCLT lists for PSU banks | Private banks
INRb
PSU Banks
Bank of Baroda
Bank of India
Canara Bank
Indian Bank
Punjab National Bank
State Bank of India
Union Bank of India
PRIVATE BANKS
New Private Banks
Axis
ICICI
IndusInd Bank
Kotak Bank
YES
Old Private Banks
Federal
J&K Bank
Karur Vysya Bank
South Indian Bank
Total
provisioning
required
66.9
64.2
83.1
19.8
96.3
455.7
68.5
Net NPL of
these 12
accounts
54.8
58.8
68. 0
15.3
78.8
264.3
56.1
Total
NNPL
195.8
235.7
251.7
47.5
357.2
1,077.6
207.9
As % of total
Net NPL
28%
25%
27%
32%
22%
17%
27%
FY19E ABV
Impact on FY19E ABV at LGD of -
55%
12%
24%
26%
8%
22%
14%
39%
65%
8%
16%
18%
6%
15%
10%
26%
75%
4%
8%
10%
3%
8%
6%
14%
143
135
301
282
117
205
140
42.2
103.1
2.7
1.3
2.5
0.3
13.2
5.9
4.9
28.2
84.4
1.7
1.1
2.0
0.3
10.8
4,9
4.0
140.5
241.3
5.4
19.2
15.4
10.7
24.4
14.1
12.6
20%
35%
32%
6%
13%
3%
44%
35%
32%
241
122
436
223
124
63
85
95
25
4%
8%
1%
0%
0%
0%
16%
6%
6%
3%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
11%
4%
4%
2%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
6%
2%
2%
Source: MOSL, Company, RBI
8 December 2017
5

7 December 2017
Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
IOC
Buy
BSE SENSEX
32,597
S&P CNX
10,044
CMP: INR389
TP: INR541(+39%)
Paradip refinery: Growing bigger and stronger
Running at full utilization
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val ( INR m)
Free float (%)
IOCL IN
4,856
463/291
-3/-12/8
1,886.8
29.2
2063
42.7
We visited IOC’s INR345b, 15mmtpa Paradip refinery – one of the most complex
refineries in India with a Nelson Complexity Index of 12.2. The refinery boasts of the
highest petrol yield of 27% in the country, as well as the indigenously developed,
patented and implemented Indmax technology for LPG maximization. From our visit, we
infer that Paradip complex, with its upcoming projects, would be a key earnings driver for
IOC, going forward. Key highlights of our visit:
Running at full utilization
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2017 2018E
Sales
3,553 4,187
EBITDA
340.1 295.2
Adj. PAT
198.5 171.6
Adj. EPS (INR)
41.9
36.2
EPS Gr. (%)
101.4 (13.5)
BV/Sh.(INR)
215.4 242.1
RoE (%)
20.7
15.8
RoCE (%)
15.0
12.0
P/E (x)
9.3
10.8
P/BV (x)
1.8
1.6
2019E
4,798
370.1
201.8
42.6
17.6
270.0
16.6
12.9
9.2
1.4
The mother unit was running at 100%+ utilization; secondary units too were
running at optimum levels.
The refinery has commenced taking heavy crude. According to management,
there is significant leeway to increase utilization of the secondary units by
buying intermediate feedstock. This would further support the GRM.
The refinery is expected to produce 27% petrol, in addition to 42% diesel, 5%
ATF and 8.6% petcoke. Fuel & loss is ~10%, but will come down with offtake of
~7mmscmd of RLNG, once the Dhamra LNG terminal is operational.
Over April-November 2017, coastal movement accounted for 39% of product
dispatch, while pipeline and tank/trucks accounted for 26% and 12%,
respectively. Rest was sold off to the other OMCs.
Paradip-Raipur-Ranchi pipeline is fully functional. Paradip-Haldia LPG pipeline is
ready up to Balasore, and should be completed in a few months.
Rail loading facility for petcoke evacuation would be ready by March 2018.
Polypropylene with 2x340ktpa capacity is expected to be commissioned by
December 2018 at a cost of INR35b. This would be even more profitable than
the conventional projects due to the Indmax technology.
Paradip is also spending INR40b on BS-VI upgradation (Sep’19), INR40b on the
ethylene glycol project, and INR77b on the PX/PTA project which would come
up by March 2022.
The company is also studying the feasibility of the plan to increase processing
capacity from 15mmtpa to 21mmtpa, in addition to a possible petcoke gasifier.
Among the OMCs, IOCL has the most diversified EBITDA profile, with one-third
coming from refining and marketing each, and the rest divided between
petrochem and pipeline. As we do not see much capex over the next 2-3 years,
we expect free cash flow generation of INR91/share over FY18-20.
We value refining at 6x average FY19-20 EV/EBITDA, petrochem at 5x, and
pipeline and marketing at 7.5x to arrive at a valuation of INR541. Maintain
Buy.
Evacuation channels well in place
Shareholding pattern (%)
Sep-17 Jun-17 Sep-16
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
57.3
10.6
6.8
25.3
57.3
10.9
6.5
25.3
58.3
11.2
5.4
25.1
Upcoming projects
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
IOCL
Sensex - Rebased
475
400
325
250
Valuation and view
8 December 2017
6

7 December 2017
Update
| Sector:
Consumer
Colgate
Buy
BSE SENSEX
32,949
S&P CNX
10,167
CMP: INR1,046
TP: INR1,355 (+30%)
Stability gradually returning, play on rural growth
But pace of initial recovery appears to be slower than peers
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
CLGT IN
272.0
1176 / 862
3/-8/-12
282.4
4.4
384
49.0
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2017 2018E 2019E
Sales
39.8
42.0
47.8
EBITDA
9.4
10.6
12.3
Adj. PAT
5.8
6.4
7.6
Adj. EPS (INR)
21.2
23.4
28.1
EPS Gr. (%)
-5.7
10.3
19.8
BV/Sh.(INR)
46.8
49.2
52.4
RoE (%)
50.1
48.8
55.2
RoCE (%)
49.3
47.8
54.1
P/E (x)
49.3
44.3
37.0
P/BV (x)
22.3
21.1
19.8
Shareholding pattern (%)
Sep-17 Jun-17 Sep-16
As On
51.0
51.0
51.0
Promoter
11.4
10.3
8.5
DII
14.6
16.0
16.2
FII
23.0
22.8
24.3
Others
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Colgate-Palm.
Sensex - Rebased
1,230
1,130
1,030
930
830
We recently met management of Colgate Palmolive (India). The insights provided by the
company have fortified our optimism about its longer-term prospects. CLGT appears
attractively positioned to grow over the next few years due to the following reasons:
Both the exit market share and sequential market share trends indicate a gradual
stabilization in the market share. With the launch of Colgate Swarna Ved Shakti (the
second brand under the Colgate Ved Shakti umbrella), along with a bevy of products
likely to be rolled out over the next few years under this brand, CLGT can emerge as a
strong play in the herbal/natural/ayurvedic sub-segment, which is 25% of India’s
overall toothpaste market.
CLGT dominates the remaining 75% of the toothpaste market, particularly in the
family segment. Also, it is gaining share year after year in the freshness segment, and
is close to the market leader in the multi-benefit category.
Notably, the company has been upping the ante on innovation, advertising and
premiumization.
With its rural dominance, CLGT is an attractive play on a rural recovery. Government
schemes are falling in place and monsoon has been near normal, which is likely to
lead to a sharp revival in earnings growth off a low base FY19 onward.
We continue admiring the tremendous business franchise that CLGT has in India, with
barriers to entry in the form of a strong distribution reach, brand strength, a single-
minded category focus, and category development efforts.
We roll forward to Dec’19E numbers and maintain our target multiple at 42x (3-year
average multiple), which begets a target price of INR1,355 (INR1,325 earlier),
implying a 30% upside. CLGT has best-of-breed RoEs, strong earnings growth
prospects, and among the best-in-class dividend yield, which is likely to rise rapidly
now that a major part of its capex is behind.
Rural recovery not as strong yet in oral care
Along with HUL, Dabur and Emami, CLGT has the highest exposure among
FMCG peers to rural sales, but it is the only one among the mentioned four
companies to not call out rural volume growth matching or exceeding urban
volume growth. CLGT’s management stated that it will take a few quarters for
this to come through.
Rural recovery even more crucial for CLGT given its high rural market share
Not only does CLGT have high exposure to rural India, its rural toothpaste
market share of ~58% is significantly higher than its urban toothpaste market
share of ~52%. HUL and Patanjali have weaker rural presence in rural India, and
Dabur is not as strong in this segment in western and southern India.
CLGT had reported six years of double-digit or close to double-digit volume
growth (before slowdown in FMCG over FY14-17 due to poor monsoon and
then demonetization), primarily led by double-digit rural volume growth. Thus,
a rural recovery would not only support its return to strong volume growth, but
also lead to market share gains.
8 December 2017
7

As we highlighted in our rural reports1 and rural reports 2, a host of factors
could potentially lead to a strong rural demand recovery. These include:
a)
Near-normal monsoon at 95% of LPA, including normal monsoon at 104%
and 102% of LPA in the key sowing months of June and July, respectively.
b)
Significant increase in Direct Benefits Transfer.
c)
Six-year-high increase in MSPs.
d)
Increase in rural wages after a long time.
With the General Elections likely to be held in 2019, there is a strong possibility
of the government coming up with more schemes to support rural demand in
2018. A rural recovery could thus significantly brighten CLGT’s growth prospects.
Distribution expansion, wholesale channel impact
CLGT’s direct reach of 1.8m outlets …
…has increased 2x over past five years (now among the highest in peer
group)...
…and is expected to expand by another 15-20% over the next 2-3 years.
The company’s toothpaste is already the second largest distributed FMCG
product in India. The expected distribution reach expansion will enhance this
moat further.
Wholesale channel is 75-80% back to normal for CLGT, but the company expects
that the return to normalcy is possible only by 4QFY18. Trade inventory is close
to normalcy. Surprisingly, unlike what was witnessed during demonetization
and unlike what was stated by peers in case of GST, the southern region has
taken longer to recover. CLGT has higher exposure to south compared to peers.
Along with an increase in modern wholesale (cash and carry) and modern retail,
direct reach expansion will enable the company to offset the impact of lower
proportion of wholesale.
‘Brushing twice a day’ campaign could be a big long-term game changer
This campaign in south India in FY17 has received a good response, and will be
rolled out nationally over the next few years. Less than 20% of Indians brush
twice a day, and thus, such campaigns provide huge support to long-term
volume growth.
Based on its global experience, the company believes that more than per capita
consumption, it is the change in habits that plays a bigger role in increasing the
practice of brushing twice a day.
A decade ago brushing twice a day in urban India was half of the current
proportion. Thus, an improvement is taking place at a gradual pace. Activation
efforts by the company will spur higher consumption.
Gradually getting act together in herbal/natural/ayurvedic segment
With the launch of Colgate Swarna Ved Shakti, CLGT appears to be getting its act
together, albeit gradually, in the herbal/ natural/ayurvedic segment. Ved Shakti
will be the umbrella brand for its herbal portfolio expansion.
With Colgate Swarna Ved Shakti, which is priced at a 20% premium to Colgate
Dental Cream, the company has marked its foray in west and south India, and
also modern trade. Colgate Cibaca Ved Shakti, which was launched in FY17, is
8 December 2017
8

focused on north and east market; it is priced at a 20% premium to Colgate
Cibaca, its rural brand. Branding and strategy has been formulated after
considering the price sensitivity and low oral care penetration in north and east.
There is also no cannibalization involved, given the positioning and the region-
specific nature of these two products.
While it is still early days on Colgate Swarna Ved Shakti (launched in October in
South India and Modern Trade), Colgate Cibaca Ved Shakti has attained a
market share of 2-3% in north and east. The latter brand has now been rolled
out across a majority of outlets in those regions.
Changing toothpaste portfolio, but CLGT retains strong footing
With the Colgate Active Salt range of products, Colgate Herbal, Colgate Pain Out
and the newer Colgate Ved Shakti range of products, the company has ~35%
market share in India’s herbal/natural/ayurvedic segment, which forms ~25% of
the country’s overall toothpaste sales. Although the company’s market share in
this sub-segment is low (compared to its overall 54% market share), we believe
this is still reasonable and can be expanded further with the rollout of new
products.
While 25% of India’s toothpaste market is herbal, family (Colgate Dental Cream
being the dominant brand) is ~30%, freshness (Close up and Colgate Max Fresh)
is ~15-20%, and multi-benefit premium segment is ~10%. CLGT has a dominant
presence in the family segment, is consistently gaining share year after year in
freshness (close to Close Up in terms of national share now and the market
leader in Maharashtra – the largest gel market), and is close to market leader
Glaxo in the multi-benefit segment. Incidentally, the multi-benefit category is
declining over the last few quarters, barring brands like Sensodyne and Colgate
Sensitive.
Management expects the herbal segment to be 30% of the category by end-
FY18. The company is planning to launch new products under Ved Shakti – a
major positive. Thus, if it also does well in the other segments and manages to
be competitive in rural, it can report healthy growth.
Exit market share in the recent months is not too different from the January-
August share of 54% (as reported in 2QFY18 press release).
Competition
Under Lever Ayush range, HUL is apparently doing better in shampoos and
soaps compared to oral care.
Close up Diamond Attraction did not create much of a splash, and thus, did not
affect Colgate Visible White.
Patanjali seems to have issues scaling up further. Its market share has been
flattish over the past 2-3 months.
Capex will be far lower going forward, boosting already high RoCEs
With a large part of expansion now complete, capex from FY19 will be half of
that seen in the preceding 4-5 years.
Production of all toothpaste brands is done in India. Toothbrushes were either
contract manufactured or imported. Currently, 60% of toothbrushes are
8 December 2017
9

manufactured by the company, 20% is contract manufactured and 20% is
imported.
Benign material cost outlook
Material cost outlook is benign until 4QFY18.
Sorbitol (20% of materials) supply is good because of a good maize crop.
Packaging costs are likely to rise owing to increase in crude.
Barriers to entry remain strong
In our view, CLGT has been able to scale up rapidly in its relatively weak
segments and also dominate the overall market, primarily led by (i) barriers to
entry that it enjoys in terms of distribution (CLGT toothpaste is the second best
distributed FMCG brand in India after HUL’s Lifebuoy soap), a reach of over 5.8m
outlets, (ii) brand strength (rated among the top 3 brands for 20 years, including
being rated as the top FMCG brand over the past six years), (iii) category focus
(which leads to highest ad spend in any single category, as well as access to huge
operating cash flows of over INR6b every year, which peers cannot match as oral
care for all of them is less than 15% of sales, compared to 97% for CLGT) and (iv)
unparalleled category development efforts (which gives it an enviable edge in
attracting incremental customers).
8 December 2017
10

In conversation
1. Godrej Prop : Entering noida mkt a big step; next 2 decades
good for real estate; Pirojsha Godrej, Executive Chairman
NCR market going through challenging times. Many players in the NCR region
overextended themselves during good years, sold huge amounts of inventory
but were lacking on the delivery front. That tainted the sector and the minds of
customers but it also created an opportunity.
Very happy with experience in NCR. First were primarily in the Gurugram market
and did very well there. Entered Noida in the last year. Recently launched a
second project in Noida and that is doing very well so far. Entry into the Noida
market was a big step.
Sales for H1FY18 were encouraging and think that these numbers are
sustainable in H2FY18.
Expect next couple of decades to be very strong for the real estate sector and
there is a big opportunity to consolidate market share.
With the introduction of real estate regulatory authority (RERA) and other steps
there is a huge opportunity to also benefit from consolidation that is underway
in this sector.
2. TATA Communications: To invest $50 million in cyber security
services in 3yrs; Srinivasan CR, Senior Vice President, Global
Product Management & Data Centre Services
Company’s security services portfolio delivers security for the cloud and from
the cloud to global enterprises helping them effectively manage business risk.
Have a team of over 100 cybersecurity experts – out of which 80 percent are in
India. Have had upwards of 50 percent year-on-year growth in security services
and expect that to continue.
Company will hire 400 people and invest USD 50 million in cyber security
services business in the next three years, as companies look to combat the rise
in cybercrime and data theft in India and globally.
Looking to add cyber response centres across the APAC region (Singapore),
Middle East, USA and the UK. Main focus in India is on the BFSI sector which has
the most crucial data and, as a result, the maximum budget allocated for
security services. Also focused on the telecom sector.
In addition, working to develop cybersecurity as a skill. Partnering with select
universities in India and Singapore to introduce additions to curriculum focused
on cybersecurity.
Almost 80 percent of breaches are from some known source. Data protection
will be a major challenge in the future for all enterprises. In terms of threat, data
is the new currency. Compliance to global standards and requirements will be a
big challenge. This will in turn lift the standards of data security worldwide.
Looking to expand technologies and intelligence across the world. Focusing on
identity and access management, and cloud security, which are some chief areas
that require more attention in the near future. In today's times, data security
and protection one of the fastest-growing businesses company has.
Following the WannaCry attack, found that only about 10-15 percent of
businesses worldwide were well prepared with the right security and latest
patches and updates.
8 December 2017
11

3. Greenply Industries: Plywood margin can move to 11.5-12%
going ahead; V Venkatramani, CFO
Present capacity in Medium-density Fibreboard (MDF) is 1.80 lakh cubic meters.
Adding another 3.60 lakh cubic meters so in that sense tripling capacity from
1.80 lakh cubic meters to 5.40 lakh cubic meters.
Also doubling capacity in decorative veneers with a new plant in Gujarat.
Have lost some market share in plywood but have improved margins there.
Plywood margins can move from 10.5 percent to 11.5-12 percent.
4. Prime Focus: Will use proceeds from issue of warrants to pay
off debt; Namit Malhotra, Founder, Executive Chairman & Global
CEO
Company will raise Rs 330 crore via issue of equity warrants at a 6 percent
premium to market price. This will take the promoter's stake to 40 percent post
conversion and the proceeds will be used towards debt reduction.
Net debt position was in Rs 1,300 crore range as on September 30.
Goal is to use these proceeds from issue of warrants to pare down the debt.
There will be an immediate debt reduction to the tune of about Rs 75-100 crore
and the balance will happen over the period of next 12-18 months.
5. Bank of India: Planning to go to market for Rs 3,000 crore of
QIP; Dinabandhu Mohapatra, MD & CEO
Government has made it very clear that recapitalisation will be mixed with
reform and it will depend on the performance and potential of the bank. Bank is
doing extremely well for the last two quarters in non-performing assets (NPA)
management and in profitability.
Some of the big accounts under National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) are
provided at 100 percent.
In next two quarters banking industry will see a lot of upswing.
Planning to go to market for Rs 3000 crore of qualified institutional placement
(QIP).
Bank has reduced its corporate exposure from 52 percent to 48 percent.
Expect loan growth to be at 6-7 percent over the next 2 quarters.
8 December 2017
12

From the think tank
1. Unintended consequences of autonomous transportation
We are on the threshold of a revolution in urban mobility. Three distinct streams
of innovation are converging on a future that is significantly different from what
any of us would have imagined possible even five years ago. On-demand transport
solutions are insinuating themselves into our lives so rapidly that car ownership is
no longer the aspirational choice of the upwardly mobile urban professional.
There is no longer a need to own a car when other, more convenient transport
options are easily available. At the same time, the internal combustion engine,
which has served us well for decades, is on its way to being permanently replaced
by the electric engine. Governments in India and around the world have begun to
set deadlines by when they intend to clear their roads of vehicles powered by
fossil fuels and every significant automobile manufacturer is pouring substantial
investments into R&D in the EV space.
2. RBI delivers as expected, status quo in the near future
The monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting contained no spinners,
maintaining status quo with a neutral stance as expected. Notably, the Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) revised up the inflation range (albeit marginally), by 10 bps to
4.3-4.7%, even as they tried to downplay the upside risks (high commodity
prices, firm core inflation and fiscal slippage) to the trajectory by mitigating
factors like seasonal fall in vegetable prices, and goods and services tax (GST)
rates. The tone of the policy statement in itself seems to suggest a prolonged
pause (probably through FY19) even as inflation and growth follow an upward
path. However, going into FY2019, we expect the inflation trajectory to be
clouded with adverse base effect and seasonally high food prices, along with
pickup in core inflation on the back of higher demand.
3. New India formula? — On the 15th finance commission
The Centre has moved swiftly to notify the presidential order setting up the
Fifteenth Finance Commission, within five days of the Cabinet’s approval. The
constitutional body is tasked with recommending a fiscal road map and a sharing of
resources between the Centre and the States. On Monday, former Revenue
Secretary N.K. Singh, who has been appointed chairman of the Commission, held
preliminary discussions on its “wide-ranging” terms of reference and decided to
hold expeditious consultations with stakeholders at all administrative levels as well
as with political parties. Think tanks and academics will be consulted. The
Commission has less than two years to complete its deliberations and submit its
report by October 2019, giving the government a little over a quarter to consider
and implement its recommendations for the period from April 2020 to March
2025.
8 December 2017
13

4. Bank recapitalisation and banking reforms finally go hand in
hand
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the finance ministry have been jointly working
on the Rs2.1 trillion recapitalisation package for public sector banks. This piece of
information released at the RBI governor’s press conference after the monetary
policy committee meeting on Wednesday is definitely more important than RBI’s
monetary policy review. Historically, the government (read: the finance ministry),
the majority owner of the PSU banks, decides on which bank gets how much
capital. In the past, each time the government announced bank recapitalisation,
there was extensive paper work and data gathering and extracting promises on
performance from the banks but ultimately it all depended on the whims and
fancies of the officials of the finance ministry and lobbying of the respective banks.
There was no art or science behind the distribution of money.
International
5. Understanding the north Korea threat
North Korea recently tested its Hwasong-15 ballistic missile, reaching an altitude
of 2,780 miles (4,475 kilometers) during its 53-minute flight. Using a flatter
trajectory could provide Kim Jong-un’s regime with the capability of hitting the
east coast of the United States. Although it has not yet demonstrated a re-entry
vehicle capable of surviving atmospheric friction, North Korea announced that it
has mastered nuclear strike capability and become a full-fledged nuclear state.
Like previous US presidents, Donald Trump has said that this state of affairs is
intolerable. So now what? Before turning to policy, it is important to dispose of
several myths that interfere with clear analysis. First, Kim may be a vicious
dictator, but he is not crazy or suicidal. Thus far, he has outplayed the US in this
high-stakes game, but he understands that a nuclear exchange with the US
means the end of the regime he is trying to preserve.
8 December 2017
14

Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
CMP
(INR)
768
117
3,196
703
19,739
1,723
28,857
1,232
665
202
3,555
1,381
242
8,881
402
749
TP
% Upside
EPS (INR)
(INR) Downside FY17 FY18E FY19E
856
134
4,197
844
19,965
2,116
34,722
1,334
688
254
3,819
1,658
-
9,866
575
764
12
15
31
20
1
23
20
8
3
26
7
20
11
43
2
28.0
4.6
141.1
13.1
473.1
93.3
612.7
23.5
20.0
8.1
169.1
54.3
5.4
248.6
19.8
11.7
28.3
34.2
4.5
6.2
155.4 187.9
19.1
26.0
457.8 603.0
82.5 116.9
814.7 1,062.7
27.6
36.7
35.8
45.9
7.9
9.7
183.1 193.9
75.0
85.7
9.9
11.8
288.1 381.0
24.6
64.8
14.9
25.8
Valuation snapshot
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
ROE (%)
FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY19E
27.4
25.7
22.7
53.8
41.7
18.5
47.1
52.5
33.3
24.9
21.0
25.4
45.2
35.7
20.3
63.7
28.9
34.8
26.6
28.0
22.8
31.9
20.0
17.9
34.4
NM
37.3
42.9
12.6
21.3
29.7
28.1
NM
19.5
38.8
13.1
NM
27.9
1,064.3
19.5
115.3
NA
52.1
47.1
28.1
27.9
20.3
61.6
35.4
86.9
17.4
27.1
26.1
20.6
36.8
43.1
20.9
35.4
44.7
18.6
25.6
19.4
18.4
24.5
30.8
16.3
50.2
24.5
29.1
21.9
81.5
19.8
26.3
22.5
19.3
27.1
18.0
31.2
31.2
16.9
17.4
25.0
9.4
58.7
22.7
9.2
10.5
7.2
20.4
21.7
NM
20.2
51.0
36.5
32.7
21.1
21.6
16.0
50.8
32.1
82.4
14.3
5.1
5.6
5.4
8.0
6.8
2.9
14.7
10.0
3.4
3.5
7.0
3.2
2.8
7.4
2.4
14.8
5.0
2.4
2.7
2.1
2.2
5.4
2.3
1.2
4.8
0.7
4.8
4.5
1.2
3.3
3.4
1.1
0.8
0.8
0.5
1.3
0.3
1.0
1.5
0.5
1.0
NA
10.0
5.6
3.0
4.6
2.4
18.5
6.5
NA
4.2
4.4
5.1
4.9
6.9
6.3
2.6
11.1
8.4
2.9
3.2
6.1
2.9
2.5
6.4
2.1
12.1
4.4
2.0
2.2
2.1
1.7
4.7
2.4
1.2
4.3
0.7
4.3
3.2
1.2
2.8
3.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.5
1.2
0.3
0.9
1.4
0.6
0.9
4.9
5.9
4.5
2.6
3.9
2.1
15.1
5.9
NA
3.7
20.3
23.1
26.9
16.2
15.8
16.9
37.1
20.8
10.6
13.9
35.7
14.2
6.4
20.3
9.8
25.6
17.2
6.9
10.8
9.5
9.9
18.3
10.9
7.2
15.3
-27.0
13.8
12.3
9.0
18.9
11.5
4.0
-6.7
4.2
1.4
10.1
-8.4
3.6
-0.2
2.7
0.9
0.0
21.6
15.1
12.0
18.0
14.4
32.5
18.9
25.5
25.5
17.3
20.4
25.0
20.1
15.2
13.0
35.7
20.5
16.8
12.5
33.7
14.5
10.8
20.5
13.4
26.5
17.9
7.3
11.5
2.6
9.6
18.8
8.8
6.3
16.9
4.0
14.8
12.4
6.7
17.3
11.9
6.4
1.5
3.4
5.8
11.6
4.6
4.7
7.0
-4.7
4.6
12.5
20.2
15.3
13.2
19.6
14.1
32.8
19.3
22.7
27.6
18.1
25.2
26.8
23.2
18.1
16.2
35.0
22.8
18.4
13.7
31.1
14.6
11.5
23.0
28.3
35.6
22.8
10.8
11.8
8.2
10.0
20.4
10.5
6.9
19.0
8.0
16.5
13.7
12.6
19.5
13.9
9.4
4.3
6.1
7.3
12.7
5.4
7.1
11.4
2.1
7.7
12.3
20.4
19.3
15.4
19.6
15.3
32.8
18.6
22.2
30.7
Company
Automobiles
Amara Raja
Ashok Ley.
Bajaj Auto
Bharat Forge
Bosch
CEAT
Eicher Mot.
Endurance Tech.
Escorts
Exide Ind
Hero Moto
M&M
Mahindra CIE
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
TVS Motor
Aggregate
Banks - Private
Axis Bank
DCB Bank
Equitas Hold.
Federal Bank
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
IDFC Bank
IndusInd
J&K Bank
Kotak Mah. Bk
RBL Bank
South Indian
Yes Bank
Aggregate
Banks - PSU
BOB
BOI
Canara
IDBI Bk
Indian Bk
OBC
PNB
SBI
Union Bk
Aggregate
NBFCs
Aditya Birla Cap
Bajaj Fin.
Bharat Fin.
Capital First
Cholaman.Inv.&Fn
Dewan Hsg.
GRUH Fin.
HDFC
HDFC Stand. Life
Indiabulls Hsg
Reco
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Not Rated
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
534
186
141
110
1,809
306
54
1,652
75
1,001
510
31
311
680
197
209
146
2,150
355
56
2,000
100
1,179
665
36
382
27
6
48
33
19
16
4
21
34
18
30
15
23
15.4
7.0
5.0
4.8
56.8
15.3
3.0
48.1
-31.3
26.8
11.9
2.5
14.6
18.4
8.5
1.7
5.5
68.7
13.6
2.8
60.9
4.1
32.1
16.4
1.9
17.8
30.8
10.5
5.7
6.6
84.7
17.0
3.2
78.6
8.7
41.6
23.0
3.8
23.3
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
168
186
367
59
384
123
174
317
158
201
201
386
49
438
150
250
415
175
20
8
5
-17
14
22
44
31
11
6.0
-14.8
18.8
1.5
29.3
-31.6
6.2
0.3
8.1
17.9
3.2
16.1
6.4
36.7
17.1
8.5
14.6
-13.5
22.6
9.2
30.3
8.6
44.0
21.4
13.5
26.8
6.0
Buy
Buy
Under Review
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
189
1,667
989
692
1,281
602
502
1,656
388
1,195
231
2,300
-
925
1,500
690
500
2,000
370
1,550
22
38
34
17
15
0
21
-5
30
0.0
32.0
21.0
24.6
46.0
29.6
8.1
46.8
4.5
68.6
3.7
45.7
30.3
32.8
59.2
37.6
9.9
51.6
4.7
83.6
5.4
63.7
47.2
43.7
70.4
46.0
12.0
57.1
5.4
105.1
8 December 2017
15

Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
CMP
(INR)
172
562
102
456
435
1,341
617
2,082
1,348
TP
% Upside
(INR) Downside
240
39
680
21
-
500
10
550
26
1,750
31
800
30
2,650
27
1,500
11
EPS (INR)
FY18E FY19E
6.9
10.4
41.0
46.5
9.2
9.7
14.2
19.1
42.6
42.0
52.5
66.5
36.0
41.9
115.6 145.3
15.5
11.8
Valuation snapshot
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
ROE (%)
FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY19E
32.9
24.8 3.9
3.4
12.4 14.9 18.9
14.7
13.7 2.6
2.2
19.1 17.4 17.2
11.8
11.1 2.6
2.4
24.0 22.3 21.4
64.4
32.2 4.0
3.7
6.4
11.9 14.8
14.7
10.2 2.7
2.2
19.4 23.8 19.9
42.4
25.5 4.1
3.6
13.8 15.0 16.7
21.2
17.2 3.4
2.8
17.4 18.0 17.6
24.7
18.0 2.7
2.4
11.7 14.3 15.9
60.7
87.1 2.7
2.4
11.7 15.1 17.4
32.6
26.1 5.2
4.5
16.1 17.2 17.9
69.6
29.0
68.5
61.0
57.7
20.5
32.8
71.6
55.0
29.0
28.8
65.1
55.3
36.2
20.2
40.0
36.5
54.4
47.2
40.1
79.0
16.5
29.7
29.6
59.0
25.3
NM
416.3
NM
45.0
42.5
36.7
54.4
66.7
49.3
47.6
47.7
52.6
39.4
65.8
30.1
32.0
67.7
25.8
31.3
47.7
52.0
58.5
34.3
43.6
45.7
24.1
24.9
58.7
43.4
37.3
17.6
35.3
31.3
38.3
32.6
35.6
50.4
13.6
28.6
20.9
33.8
25.4
26.3
41.4
35.6
35.6
40.0
29.4
53.0
58.2
44.7
44.6
47.6
47.0
38.2
56.6
27.8
39.2
8.9
6.0
1.0
9.9
31.4
1.3
6.4
10.2
10.0
5.6
3.4
6.1
10.1
4.9
3.3
6.2
3.8
2.8
3.7
2.7
5.5
1.7
1.0
4.0
3.5
4.4
3.4
6.0
2.2
7.8
4.7
3.4
14.4
21.9
22.3
12.5
16.4
12.8
8.3
43.1
6.8
6.0
7.8
4.6
1.0
9.3
23.0
1.2
6.0
8.9
8.9
4.7
3.1
5.4
8.5
4.5
2.9
5.5
3.4
2.6
3.5
2.5
5.0
1.5
1.0
3.4
3.2
3.8
3.1
5.4
2.1
6.5
4.2
3.1
14.1
18.1
21.3
10.8
14.0
10.0
8.1
42.9
6.7
6.1
12.7
20.6
1.5
18.0
76.4
6.2
21.2
12.4
18.2
19.2
12.5
9.3
19.8
14.3
16.9
18.0
10.3
5.1
7.9
7.1
7.2
10.8
3.4
14.4
6.1
19.0
-3.2
1.4
-0.6
18.4
11.6
9.3
28.5
36.9
50.4
28.4
35.8
24.6
22.2
66.5
23.5
21.1
11.6
17.9
3.3
20.2
51.0
2.1
18.1
21.8
19.5
19.5
13.1
9.1
21.4
12.6
17.5
16.5
11.0
7.0
11.1
7.3
10.3
11.5
3.5
17.5
9.9
16.0
12.3
13.7
6.1
20.0
11.1
10.6
26.9
34.0
48.7
26.0
31.7
23.8
21.4
75.9
24.4
15.5
14.6
18.1
3.3
27.8
49.8
3.3
22.2
22.6
21.2
20.2
14.0
13.1
21.5
13.2
16.4
16.3
12.1
8.0
14.2
12.0
12.7
14.5
6.0
19.2
13.9
17.9
15.6
21.3
11.3
17.4
14.2
12.9
29.4
35.2
56.2
27.3
34.0
22.9
22.6
88.0
25.6
18.3
Company
L&T Fin Holdings
LIC Hsg Fin
Manappuram
M&M Fin.
Muthoot Fin
PNB Housing
Repco Home
Shriram City Union
STF
Aggregate
Capital Goods
ABB
Bharat Elec.
BHEL
Blue Star
CG Cons. Elec.
CG Power & Indu.
Cummins
GE T&D
Havells
K E C Intl
L&T
Siemens
Solar Ind
Thermax
Va Tech Wab.
Voltas
Aggregate
Cement
Ambuja Cem.
ACC
Birla Corp.
Dalmia Bharat
Grasim Inds.
India Cem
J K Cements
JK Lakshmi Ce
Ramco Cem
Orient Cem
Prism Cem
Sagar Cements
Shree Cem
Ultratech
Aggregate
Consumer
Asian Paints
Britannia
Colgate
Dabur
Emami
Godrej Cons.
GSK Cons.
HUL
ITC
Jyothy Lab
Reco
Buy
Neutral
Not Rated
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
FY17
5.2
38.2
8.6
7.1
29.5
31.6
29.1
84.3
22.2
Sell
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
1,372
183
92
786
270
84
869
411
526
344
1,219
1,160
1,139
1,115
606
618
1,230
210
78
685
260
90
1,150
440
590
350
1,450
1,313
1,120
930
745
580
-10
15
-15
-13
-4
7
32
7
12
2
19
13
-2
-17
23
-6
19.7
6.3
1.3
12.9
4.7
4.1
26.5
5.7
9.6
11.9
42.3
17.8
20.6
30.8
29.9
15.5
20.2
7.1
2.9
16.5
5.2
1.4
25.3
9.4
11.5
14.3
49.0
19.8
26.2
29.9
34.5
17.5
28.7
8.0
3.0
24.4
6.5
2.3
35.0
11.2
14.3
17.6
57.5
31.0
31.3
34.4
37.2
19.6
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Not Rated
Buy
Buy
266
1,704
1,144
3,061
1,117
167
998
410
691
165
114
832
17,306
4,086
314
1,797
1,435
3,517
1,302
188
1,324
512
853
205
130
-
21,852
4,906
18
5
25
15
17
12
33
25
24
24
14
26
20
4.9
6.9
36.1 52.2
28.5 32.2
38.8 60.8
67.8 81.9
5.6
5.8
33.7 47.8
7.0
12.1
27.3 27.1
-1.6
6.3
0.3
2.7
-1.9 23.4
384.4 486.2
96.1 102.2
8.4
70.9
56.7
83.7
116.8
10.5
61.8
19.1
35.1
9.1
5.0
47.4
499.3
147.1
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
1,143
4,917
1,046
345
1,266
994
6,145
1,292
253
360
1,280
5,845
1,325
410
1,435
1,015
5,400
1,500
280
365
12
19
27
19
13
2
-12
16
11
1
21.0 21.6
73.7 84.5
21.2 23.4
7.2
7.7
26.5 26.6
18.9 21.2
156.1 160.8
19.6 22.8
8.4
9.1
11.2
9.2
25.8
106.9
28.6
9.3
33.2
24.5
182.3
27.6
10.0
10.9
8 December 2017
16

Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
CMP
(INR)
310
7,824
22,452
248
847
9,598
171
1,036
3,364
TP
% Upside
(INR) Downside
340
10
7,750
-1
25,580
14
275
11
975
15
9,267
-3
-
1,320
27
2,970
-12
EPS (INR)
FY18E FY19E
6.5
7.9
128.4 149.0
296.6 413.1
8.9
12.4
17.2
20.8
151.5 176.7
3.5
6.4
14.7
18.0
34.9
53.7
Valuation snapshot
P/E (x)
FY17 FY18E
49.3
47.6
63.3
60.9
94.0
75.7
68.7
27.7
50.6
49.2
72.2
63.3
48.3
49.1
119.4 70.7
125.8 96.3
47.9
43.6
23.9
29.1
23.1
17.1
51.2
29.4
37.3
25.4
30.2
14.1
13.6
17.4
71.3
33.4
18.7
14.5
33.5
44.0
24.7
19.5
41.7
24.0
23.6
NM
10.1
23.5
33.7
20.9
23.8
31.9
25.1
15.1
85.6
23.9
28.1
31.3
36.2
77.6
14.0
18.4
55.4
29.0
15.6
21.8
31.2
34.1
19.1
35.5
33.6
26.5
27.6
138.1
9.0
21.1
25.8
17.4
16.4
31.9
30.5
27.3
8.3
13.9
25.5
P/B (x)
ROE (%)
FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY19E
17.2 15.0 36.7 33.6 37.1
25.0 22.7 40.9 39.0 40.9
37.6 30.1 40.0 39.8 44.4
3.2
2.8
6.0
10.8 13.3
13.1 10.8 28.2 24.1 23.9
45.2 37.5 39.3 64.8 62.9
2.4
2.4
5.2
4.9
8.5
11.7 10.3 10.2 15.5 16.5
25.2 17.5 21.3 18.2 20.9
13.2 12.3 27.6 28.2 29.5
5.1
5.8
7.5
4.2
6.5
6.1
3.8
5.0
3.0
1.3
3.3
3.2
10.3
2.8
3.1
2.7
5.7
5.4
2.6
3.4
8.4
5.2
3.9
2.8
1.3
4.4
3.8
2.3
2.4
17.9
3.6
2.6
2.2
2.7
3.8
4.4
5.1
6.0
3.3
6.1
5.1
3.4
5.2
2.9
1.2
2.8
2.3
12.2
2.6
2.6
2.5
5.3
4.7
2.3
3.2
6.9
4.6
3.6
2.5
1.2
3.7
3.4
2.0
2.2
13.7
3.4
2.5
1.9
2.3
3.5
15.9
3.4
2.5
3.9
23.0
21.9
36.7
27.6
12.3
23.0
10.2
22.0
9.7
10.0
24.7
21.1
14.5
8.6
18.0
20.9
17.1
14.4
10.8
18.1
22.2
23.8
16.8
-0.6
14.0
20.7
12.0
11.0
13.7
50.5
10.8
7.3
12.4
16.7
12.3
25.1
24.6
-19.1
6.7
19.9
17.0
26.4
24.6
7.2
23.4
12.1
16.3
8.2
1.6
19.6
14.2
22.0
9.2
18.4
12.0
17.1
14.7
12.9
9.2
22.5
18.3
12.9
1.9
14.1
19.1
13.8
11.8
14.1
48.6
11.5
9.2
19.4
17.8
13.6
12.5
22.8
-6.4
6.3
19.8
19.4
25.7
22.3
11.0
26.1
13.6
21.2
14.1
3.9
18.4
15.5
31.4
12.0
19.2
12.5
17.6
20.5
18.3
13.7
20.7
19.9
15.4
7.0
12.9
17.0
12.5
11.6
15.4
46.8
14.1
11.7
25.4
18.6
16.1
34.9
22.2
0.2
10.1
Company
Marico
Nestle
Page Inds
Parag Milk
Pidilite Ind.
P&G Hygiene
Prabhat Dairy
United Brew
United Spirits
Aggregate
Healthcare
Alembic Phar
Alkem Lab
Ajanta Pharma
Aurobindo
Biocon
Cadila
Cipla
Divis Lab
Dr Reddy’s
Fortis Health
Glenmark
Granules
GSK Pharma
IPCA Labs
Jubilant Life
Lupin
Sanofi India
Shilpa Medicare
Strides Shasun
Sun Pharma
Syngene Intl
Torrent Pharma
Aggregate
Infrastructure
Ashoka Buildcon
IRB Infra
KNR Constructions
Sadbhav
Engineering
Aggregate
Logistics
Allcargo Logistics
Blue Dart
Concor
Gateway
Distriparks
Gati
Transport Corp.
Aggregate
Media
Dish TV
D B Corp
Den Net.
Ent.Network
Reco
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Not Rated
Buy
Neutral
FY17
6.3
123.7
238.7
3.6
16.7
132.9
3.5
8.7
26.7
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Not Rated
Neutral
516
2,168
1,323
672
522
417
593
1,013
2,196
146
533
126
2,450
537
690
819
4,330
617
797
510
543
1,324
540
2,500
1,606
900
485
555
600
1,100
2,575
185
650
200
2,500
550
861
1,000
5,000
797
1,214
610
-
1,400
5
15
21
34
-7
33
1
9
17
27
22
59
2
2
25
22
15
29
52
20
6
21.6 21.6
74.6 68.0
57.3 52.7
39.3 44.6
10.2
6.1
14.2 17.5
15.9 21.1
39.9 32.4
72.6 60.6
10.3
1.9
39.3 37.9
7.2
6.9
34.4 44.2
16.1 18.6
36.9 44.2
56.6 37.6
129.1 139.0
14.0 18.1
32.3 41.8
26.1 14.4
13.0 16.1
55.2 50.0
24.9
89.5
64.1
50.3
10.1
23.7
27.0
43.7
115.2
4.9
42.8
9.1
54.9
26.5
55.0
42.7
156.2
29.9
69.2
22.9
18.0
61.4
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
250
205
282
369
260
240
295
435
4
17
5
18
-0.5
20.3
12.0
11.0
1.8
22.9
13.3
14.3
7.1
23.2
14.1
14.5
Buy
Not Rated
Neutral
Buy
Not Rated
Not Rated
178
4,146
1,305
240
132
293
215
-
1,496
282
-
-
21
15
18
9.8
10.9
102.5 129.9
38.0 42.7
6.8
8.4
16.9
8.8
15.9
21.0
13.3
163.2
55.2
11.6
23.9
25.9
18.1
40.4
34.3
35.3
15.8
17.3
30.5
81.0
17.7
NM
64.3
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
83
354
110
735
106
430
90
910
28
22
-19
24
1.0
20.0
-9.3
11.4
0.6
21.7
-2.9
11.6
2.2
25.4
0.1
20.1
134.9 18.0
16.3 4.1
NM
2.3
63.6 4.1
8 December 2017
17

Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
CMP
(INR)
244
99
164
396
1,287
103
26
858
572
TP
% Upside
(INR) Downside
302
24
113
14
225
37
469
19
1,640
27
130
26
27
4
1,005
17
630
10
EPS (INR)
FY18E FY19E
25.6
30.2
10.4
11.9
11.3
13.4
8.7
14.1
27.1
43.0
3.1
6.1
-0.8
0.1
28.1
35.7
10.5
16.0
Valuation snapshot
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
ROE (%)
FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY19E
9.5
9.5
1.5
1.3
18.2 15.0 15.3
13.4
9.5
1.0
0.9
7.9
10.2 10.6
15.4
14.5 2.5
2.5
18.5 17.3 19.3
61.6
45.7 4.1
3.8
11.2
8.6
12.6
62.7
47.5 6.2
5.6
10.4 12.4 17.0
84.6
33.6 5.6
4.8
7.6
15.3 24.8
NM
NM
4.2
4.9 -29.4 -14.2
2.4
34.5
30.5 8.4
7.8
26.0 26.4 30.7
47.2
54.7 6.4
5.9
17.0 12.8 16.8
42.1
36.5 5.3
4.9
12.6 13.4 17.2
27.7
14.6
NM
16.9
20.8
13.0
NM
39.3
18.9
18.1
24.2
10.3
21.8
52.6
23.8
10.1
9.3
37.8
26.0
8.3
18.0
10.8
22.6
19.3
14.0
165.0
38.1
88.6
74.4
19.3
14.4
24.2
15.9
14.0
17.4
22.4
18.3
16.6
17.2
33.1
19.6
12.6
12.7
NM
12.3
16.6
9.8
NM
14.8
11.2
11.6
14.3
11.6
17.5
36.9
17.2
11.3
9.9
33.1
21.0
13.3
11.7
9.3
17.1
16.4
13.0
77.0
27.0
64.0
51.9
16.4
13.6
20.3
15.7
14.1
15.7
19.5
17.0
14.4
15.0
27.5
19.9
1.8
3.9
0.5
2.7
1.5
1.8
0.8
4.2
1.8
2.1
1.7
3.2
2.2
7.1
2.6
3.1
1.8
7.9
6.1
2.1
1.0
1.0
4.8
2.0
1.8
13.5
4.8
16.7
11.4
3.1
3.6
5.9
3.3
2.1
6.4
3.6
2.4
2.2
2.7
10.4
5.8
1.6
4.2
0.5
2.2
1.4
1.7
0.9
3.4
1.6
1.9
1.6
2.7
2.0
6.1
2.3
2.6
1.6
6.7
5.5
1.9
0.9
1.0
4.0
1.8
1.7
12.7
4.2
13.5
9.6
2.9
3.4
5.0
3.6
1.9
4.9
3.5
2.8
2.2
2.6
8.4
6.3
7.4
24.4
-7.9
17.3
7.2
12.8
-9.9
10.9
9.7
15.7
7.0
32.4
9.6
14.0
11.6
32.4
20.7
21.0
24.5
31.4
5.7
10.1
23.2
11.6
13.1
8.2
14.6
20.6
15.3
16.2
27.5
26.5
22.0
14.3
41.6
16.8
13.2
13.7
17.0
37.1
32.6
13.6
32.3
-4.7
19.8
8.6
15.6
-6.9
25.2
15.1
17.1
11.4
25.2
12.0
17.8
14.4
25.1
17.2
22.0
27.3
15.1
8.0
10.8
25.2
12.1
12.9
16.5
16.5
23.4
18.5
17.4
25.9
26.4
21.8
14.1
35.2
17.3
14.6
15.1
17.9
33.6
30.6
16.5
42.5
0.1
20.2
10.1
16.2
-4.9
29.7
23.8
16.6
15.3
25.8
12.6
22.1
14.0
25.0
16.9
21.0
24.4
16.7
10.4
12.5
23.7
12.0
13.5
20.9
17.5
25.5
20.9
18.3
25.6
23.4
22.5
14.5
29.6
21.2
17.3
16.4
20.8
32.4
33.5
Company
Hind. Media
HT Media
Jagran Prak.
Music Broadcast
PVR
Prime Focus
Siti Net.
Sun TV
Zee Ent.
Aggregate
Metals
Hindalco
Hind. Zinc
JSPL
JSW Steel
Nalco
NMDC
SAIL
Rain Industries
Vedanta
Tata Steel
Aggregate
Oil & Gas
BPCL
GAIL
Gujarat Gas
Gujarat St. Pet.
HPCL
IOC
IGL
Mahanagar Gas
MRPL
Oil India
ONGC
PLNG
Reliance Ind.
Aggregate
Retail
Jubilant Food
PC Jeweller
Titan Co.
Aggregate
Technology
Cyient
HCL Tech.
Hexaware
Infosys
KPIT Tech
L&T Infotech
Mindtree
Mphasis
NIIT Tech
Persistent Sys
Tata Elxsi
TCS
Reco
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
FY17
25.8
7.4
10.7
6.4
20.5
1.2
-1.9
24.9
12.1
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Neutral
237
288
163
250
77
130
79
379
286
688
326
322
209
297
87
187
43
492
394
672
37
12
28
19
13
44
-45
30
38
-2
8.6
19.7
-20.9
14.8
3.7
10.0
-10.1
9.6
15.1
37.9
18.8
22.7
-15.1
20.3
4.7
13.2
-6.4
25.5
25.5
59.4
26.4
33.5
0.5
24.9
5.8
12.7
-4.3
38.9
44.4
65.2
Buy
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
498
493
844
209
413
391
332
1,144
123
348
177
257
931
643
378
1,011
184
579
554
404
1,219
110
418
231
312
1,077
29
-23
20
-12
40
42
22
7
-10
20
30
22
16
48.3
22.6
16.1
8.8
40.7
41.9
8.8
44.0
14.8
19.3
16.4
11.4
48.3
43.1
28.1
22.9
12.1
36.4
39.5
10.0
54.4
9.2
29.8
19.0
15.0
56.7
52.1
31.9
33.6
13.2
42.8
43.6
11.3
53.8
11.5
40.5
22.8
16.7
62.1
Sell
Buy
Buy
1,651
406
800
1,270
490
850
-23
21
6
10.0
10.7
9.0
21.4
15.1
12.5
27.4
18.4
15.9
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
591
859
331
1,000
167
967
556
714
630
649
932
2,618
600
970
270
1,100
160
950
600
670
600
780
1,004
2,450
1
13
-18
10
-4
-2
8
-6
-5
20
8
-6
30.6 36.0
59.8 63.2
13.7 16.3
62.8 63.8
11.9 11.9
55.5 61.6
24.9 28.5
38.9 42.0
38.0 43.7
37.7 43.3
28.1 33.8
133.4 131.8
41.9
68.2
17.0
67.8
14.1
66.0
35.1
46.0
50.3
52.4
40.2
151.4
8 December 2017
18

Click excel icon
for detailed
valuation guide
CMP
(INR)
497
281
848
TP
% Upside
(INR) Downside
560
13
280
0
1,020
20
EPS (INR)
FY18E FY19E
35.8
37.7
19.1
20.1
52.8
72.7
Valuation snapshot
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
ROE (%)
FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY17 FY18E FY19E
16.1
13.9 2.6
2.5
18.4 18.9 18.2
16.6
14.7 2.7
2.6
16.9 17.0 16.7
16.3
16.1 2.6
2.3
17.2 15.3 18.4
17.6
17.3 4.0
4.2
22.9 24.4 23.2
45.3
25.7
NM
68.6
44.1
17.6
19.1
21.2
15.0
14.5
12.2
15.8
34.6
149.0
54.2
22.5
28.9
31.0
83.3
34.1
26.0
8.7
78.6
26.8
61.6
38.3
28.6
21.9
95.2
28.1
37.9
21.0
35.9
54.0
13.2
53.2
65.1
136.7 3.0
22.7 4.6
NM
1.4
125.9 12.2
-303.3 2.9
15.0
11.1
20.2
13.4
11.6
12.5
13.4
40.7
95.4
46.0
20.3
31.1
21.3
44.9
30.7
17.8
14.0
52.1
15.0
39.4
35.9
23.5
18.9
30.6
31.4
26.3
23.6
39.4
48.7
10.5
51.0
52.0
6.7
1.2
1.3
1.5
2.1
2.1
2.3
3.1
18.6
7.1
1.9
32.8
5.2
6.4
11.0
11.4
2.6
7.6
3.5
3.9
3.6
8.0
5.4
12.9
7.9
3.2
3.3
4.6
9.4
1.6
9.6
15.5
3.0
4.6
1.9
13.3
3.0
6.4
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.9
1.9
2.1
3.0
16.3
6.4
1.9
29.7
4.5
4.3
8.9
6.6
2.2
6.8
3.7
3.6
3.6
7.3
4.6
5.2
6.6
3.0
3.0
4.3
7.9
1.4
8.7
12.7
6.8
16.2
-1.6
48.4
6.6
37.8
6.5
6.3
10.5
15.6
17.1
14.4
10.3
17.9
2.2
20.2
-26.6
10.1
-1.0
42.4
10.7
6.3
11.0
17.0
16.0
15.7
7.4
18.2
3.7
22.8
-41.4
30.0
0.2
47.7
11.1
5.0
11.9
17.4
14.6
16.8
10.9
22.9
15.7
8.0
96.1
23.4
12.9
31.5
43.0
18.5
13.7
27.4
13.5
14.4
34.5
27.9
16.4
22.9
15.3
16.3
15.1
22.2
16.1
20.7
28.8
Company
Reco
Tech Mah
Buy
Wipro
Neutral
Zensar Tech
Buy
Aggregate
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Buy
Bharti Infratel
Neutral
Idea Cellular
Buy
Tata Comm
Buy
Aggregate
Utiltites
Coal India
Buy
CESC
Buy
JSW Energy
Sell
NTPC
Buy
Power Grid
Buy
Tata Power
Sell
Aggregate
Others
Arvind
Neutral
Avenue
Sell
Supermarts
Bata India
Sell
BSE
Neutral
Castrol India
Buy
Coromandel Intl Buy
Delta Corp
Buy
Eveready Inds.
Buy
Interglobe
Neutral
Indo Count
Neutral
Info Edge
Buy
Kaveri Seed
Buy
Manpasand
Buy
MCX
Buy
Monsanto
Buy
Navneet Education Buy
Quess Corp
Buy
PI Inds.
Buy
Piramal Enterp.
Buy
SRF
Buy
S H Kelkar
Buy
Team Lease Serv. Buy
Trident
Buy
TTK Prestige
Neutral
V-Guard
Neutral
FY17
30.9
16.9
52.1
513
382
98
684
680
440
110
780
32
15
13
14
11.3
14.9
-1.1
10.0
3.8
16.8
-16.1
5.4
6.5
19.2
-18.0
18.2
263
992
82
180
202
91
335
1,360
49
211
261
72
27
37
-40
17
29
-21
14.9
51.9
3.8
12.0
14.0
7.4
17.5
89.1
4.0
13.4
17.4
7.3
20.7
102.1
3.3
15.7
20.4
7.5
429
1,143
733
922
393
515
254
439
1,125
113
1,232
512
391
950
2,464
160
951
940
2,753
1,806
261
2,095
87
7,030
233
425
873
578
1,100
467
523
257
400
1,291
128
1,300
738
492
1,300
3,293
209
1,170
890
3,266
1,992
301
2,300
114
5,281
167
-1
-24
-21
19
19
2
1
-9
15
14
6
44
26
37
34
31
23
-5
19
10
16
10
31
-25
-28
12.4
7.7
10.5
12.0
16.5
17.5
19.3
46.1
13.3
29.0
8.0
17.4
75.4
10.7
26.2
41.0
15.4
39.2
126.6
10.4
32.7
35.6
149.7
104.9
9.7
66.4
10.4
176.1
6.0
13.5 15.9
41.0 45.3
13.6 12.6
16.6 24.1
3.1
5.7
12.9 14.3
43.2 63.2
13.0
8.0
15.7 23.6
19.1 34.1
6.3
9.9
24.8 26.5
86.2 105.0
7.3
8.4
10.0 31.1
33.4 29.9
72.6 104.6
85.9 76.7
7.2
6.6
38.8 43.0
6.6
8.3
132.1 137.8
3.6
4.5
13.9 14.6
8.3
9.3
115.0 100.3
17.5 22.5
8.1
12.1
37.7 32.1
51.0 46.8
34.8 17.0
10.2 13.7
13.6 23.3
7.3
8.4
10.2 10.0
31.5 32.5
26.7 26.3
19.0 24.2
32.8 23.0
9.0
11.7
16.6 13.2
13.7 11.3
19.2 17.6
13.0 14.5
19.5 18.0
27.4 26.9
8 December 2017
19

MOSL Universe stock performance
Company
Automobiles
Amara Raja
Ashok Ley.
Bajaj Auto
Bharat Forge
Bosch
CEAT
Eicher Mot.
Endurance Tech.
Escorts
Exide Ind
Hero Moto
M&M
Mahindra CIE
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
TVS Motor
Banks - Private
Axis Bank
DCB Bank
Equitas Hold.
Federal Bank
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
IDFC Bank
IndusInd
J&K Bank
Kotak Mah. Bk
RBL Bank
South Indian
Yes Bank
Banks - PSU
BOB
BOI
Canara
IDBI Bk
Indian Bk
OBC
PNB
SBI
Union Bk
NBFCs
Aditya Birla Cap
Bajaj Fin.
Bharat Fin.
Capital First
Cholaman.Inv.&Fn
Dewan Hsg.
GRUH Fin.
HDFC
HDFC Stand. Life
Indiabulls Hsg
L&T Fin.Holdings
LIC Hsg Fin
Manappuram
M&M Fin.
1 Day (%)
0.5
2.1
2.8
1.0
2.7
0.8
2.3
0.6
2.5
-0.2
1.6
0.8
2.6
3.3
1.3
2.0
0.8
1.6
1.9
1.8
0.4
2.2
0.7
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.8
1.4
1.2
2.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.3
-0.5
0.5
1.5
0.3
2.7
-0.5
0.4
5.5
1.9
2.6
1.2
1.8
2.7
1M (%)
12.7
-4.2
1.0
-1.7
-5.1
0.2
-7.4
4.0
-5.7
0.5
-3.4
2.0
-1.3
7.8
-11.0
5.8
1.3
1.9
0.9
-3.6
-0.8
-2.0
-5.0
0.1
-5.6
-1.1
-1.0
2.5
-0.3
1.8
-4.5
-6.2
-5.3
6.0
-9.6
-8.9
-0.2
-5.0
-6.5
-7.5
0.4
-2.4
1.3
-4.8
1.8
-6.1
0.1
-10.4
-6.6
2.9
7.5
12M (%)
-16.5
52.3
18.3
53.5
-2.7
37.1
23.8
108.0
107.9
15.2
10.2
16.6
27.8
73.5
-9.7
108.1
19.3
75.4
-11.3
58.6
53.2
30.2
-17.6
53.6
24.6
36.6
47.8
63.4
30.5
6.4
62.8
22.3
-12.1
59.5
4.6
31.9
24.0
11.7
Company
Muthoot Fin
PNB Housing
PFC
Repco Home
REC
STF
Shriram City Union
Capital Goods
ABB
Bharat Elec.
BHEL
Blue Star
CG Cons. Elec.
CG Power & Inds Sol.
Cummins
GE T&D
Havells
K E C Intl
L&T
Pennar Eng.
Siemens
Solar Ind
Suzlon Energy
Thermax
Va Tech Wab.
Voltas
Cement
Ambuja Cem.
ACC
Birla Corp.
Dalmia Bharat
Grasim Inds.
India Cem
J K Cements
JK Lakshmi Ce
Ramco Cem
Orient Cem
Prism Cem
Sagar Cements
Shree Cem
Ultratech
Consumer
Asian Paints
Britannia
Colgate
Dabur
Emami
Godrej Cons.
GSK Cons.
HUL
ITC
Jyothy Lab
Marico
Nestle
Page Inds
Parag Milk
1 Day (%)
0.6
1.6
0.6
1.2
0.5
0.4
-0.1
2.1
2.1
1.5
3.5
-1.3
2.4
0.9
1.6
3.1
9.8
2.4
3.9
2.7
0.7
1.0
3.2
1.6
2.8
1.7
0.9
1.7
0.8
1.9
1.8
0.0
-0.4
0.8
0.5
0.8
1.7
1.8
1.3
3.6
3.4
0.7
1.1
-0.6
-0.8
0.7
1.4
0.6
-2.3
1.0
1.9
1.4
1.1
1M (%)
-7.3
-4.3
-12.6
5.0
-8.7
5.3
-3.6
2.8
1.5
-1.6
16.4
17.7
-4.0
-2.1
0.7
5.1
10.9
0.7
-5.5
-6.3
7.4
-11.4
15.6
3.5
12.5
-3.8
-4.5
-5.5
1.4
-10.9
-4.2
-2.4
-5.9
-3.2
-4.8
2.7
-1.1
-8.0
-6.3
0.1
5.7
1.1
1.6
1.7
1.5
12.4
4.7
-4.8
7.1
-0.1
1.7
9.0
-3.5
12M (%)
45.5
55.9
-7.6
9.7
16.3
50.0
12.4
30.8
37.7
7.8
68.7
81.4
28.2
13.5
31.3
58.9
144.9
35.1
-40.2
5.6
73.5
-5.2
34.4
24.4
99.1
26.9
26.2
75.4
95.5
52.8
49.4
35.7
8.7
23.3
26.0
27.3
23.1
14.1
14.6
22.6
63.9
13.6
23.3
24.7
37.3
22.6
54.8
11.2
-2.7
21.1
24.3
72.6
-7.5
86.8
40.3
27.5
46.4
143.4
60.7
30.9
66.3
101.4
1.4
39.2
63.7
8 December 2017
20

MOSL Universe stock performance
Company
Pidilite Ind.
P&G Hygiene
Prabhat Dairy
United Brew
United Spirits
Healthcare
Alembic Phar
Alkem Lab
Ajanta Pharma
Aurobindo
Biocon
Cadila
Cipla
Divis Lab
Dr Reddy’s
Fortis Health
Glenmark
Granules
GSK Pharma
IPCA Labs
Jubilant Life
Lupin
Sanofi India
Shilpa Medicare
Strides Shasun
Sun Pharma
Syngene Intl
Torrent Pharma
Infrastructure
Ashoka Buildcon
IRB Infra.Devl.
KNR Construct.
Sadbhav Engg.
Logistics
Allcargo Logistics
Blue Dart
Concor
Gateway Distriparks
Gati
Transport Corp.
Media
Dish TV
D B Corp
Den Net.
Ent.Network
Hind. Media
HT Media
Jagran Prak.
Music Broadcast
PVR
Prime Focus
Siti Net.
Sun TV
Zee Ent.
Metals
Hindalco
1 Day (%)
1.4
-0.8
2.7
1.5
0.4
0.4
3.5
3.4
2.8
0.9
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
0.0
0.8
-0.7
2.1
0.1
1.4
0.7
1.3
-0.4
1.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.6
1.7
3.4
-2.3
1.5
0.2
0.9
1.1
0.3
-0.6
1.0
0.2
1.5
-0.7
4.3
0.5
1.0
-0.1
0.0
2.3
1.3
2.7
1.0
2.0
0.6
2.3
1M (%)
11.7
8.7
16.7
-9.7
9.9
0.6
11.9
10.9
-13.9
30.3
-16.1
-2.6
-0.2
-7.6
4.2
-11.7
-6.8
-7.1
-1.8
6.4
-4.8
-3.1
-6.2
1.4
-3.3
9.0
4.4
5.1
-14.3
8.0
19.5
2.7
1.6
-1.9
-5.4
9.5
2.3
9.3
-1.1
23.8
-8.2
1.3
-1.6
-5.7
3.9
-4.3
4.0
4.2
-1.9
6.4
-11.3
12M (%)
32.0
40.3
73.7
22.6
73.9
-18.7
29.4
-29.5
-7.1
70.9
6.6
3.9
-12.9
-31.1
-14.0
-38.9
13.3
-10.0
-3.9
3.8
-45.7
2.5
-2.9
-26.0
-23.2
-5.9
-1.4
66.4
10.6
83.7
34.7
6.7
-9.6
46.3
4.8
13.1
72.2
-3.5
0.7
76.4
4.0
-6.0
35.5
-3.3
18.7
49.9
-25.6
82.7
29.6
35.6
Company
Hind. Zinc
JSPL
JSW Steel
Nalco
NMDC
Rain Industries
SAIL
Vedanta
Tata Steel
Oil & Gas
BPCL
GAIL
Gujarat Gas
Gujarat St. Pet.
HPCL
IOC
IGL
Mahanagar Gas
MRPL
Oil India
ONGC
PLNG
Reliance Ind.
Retail
Jubilant Food
PC Jeweller
Titan Co.
Technology
Cyient
HCL Tech.
Hexaware
Infosys
KPIT Tech
L&T Infotech
Mindtree
Mphasis
NIIT Tech
Persistent Sys
Tata Elxsi
TCS
Tech Mah
Wipro
Zensar Tech
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Bharti Infratel
Idea Cellular
Tata Comm
Utiltites
Coal India
CESC
JSW Energy
NTPC
Power Grid
Tata Power
1 Day (%)
0.6
2.8
3.2
1.5
1.2
7.9
3.7
1.5
3.0
1.4
8.0
-1.3
3.1
1.8
0.7
2.6
3.6
1.4
0.1
0.7
5.1
0.3
-3.4
1.5
3.3
1.3
0.3
-1.2
1.0
3.8
-0.6
3.2
-1.5
-0.9
0.1
2.4
-0.5
5.3
-0.3
1.2
6.1
3.3
4.7
2.8
-0.6
1.4
3.6
2.6
1.0
3.8
1M (%)
-9.5
1.8
-5.2
-15.3
-0.2
17.8
-0.6
-14.8
-0.7
-4.5
6.3
-7.5
-0.3
-7.1
-2.2
7.5
-8.8
-6.6
-6.8
-8.6
-2.5
2.6
3.2
15.7
6.2
12.5
-1.9
-1.5
4.6
6.1
18.2
14.8
0.2
-1.7
0.0
7.3
-3.3
5.4
-6.9
0.3
-0.2
-10.6
0.4
1.8
-7.5
0.9
2.6
0.8
-2.7
9.5
12M (%)
3.4
128.4
51.9
11.5
5.2
589.7
51.5
23.8
66.8
18.2
53.7
57.8
40.5
38.4
28.9
98.0
53.4
26.1
6.2
-10.6
33.3
86.2
94.6
128.1
147.0
18.1
9.5
64.2
3.5
29.0
50.7
21.4
39.7
48.2
8.6
35.2
21.3
9.1
24.2
-14.4
56.1
0.8
29.5
7.5
-13.9
68.6
41.7
10.2
10.9
22.0
8 December 2017
21

MOSL Universe stock performance
Company
Others
Arvind
Avenue Super.
Bata India
BSE
Castrol India
Century Ply.
Coromandel Intl
Delta Corp
Dynamatic Tech
Eveready Inds.
Interglobe
Indo Count
Info Edge
Inox Leisure
Jain Irrigation
Just Dial
Kaveri Seed
Kitex Garm.
Manpasand
MCX
Monsanto
Navneet Educat.
PI Inds.
Piramal Enterp.
Quess Corp
SRF
S H Kelkar
Symphony
Team Lease Serv.
Trident
TTK Prestige
V-Guard
Wonderla
1 Day (%)
0.1
1.9
0.0
0.9
0.3
2.8
2.5
4.2
1.2
0.6
-1.0
0.0
-1.3
2.6
0.6
0.8
-1.2
1.7
1.7
5.0
0.3
-0.2
-2.7
0.9
1.4
1.1
0.5
1.4
0.7
0.4
2.8
0.2
2.3
1M (%)
-5.7
3.8
-6.4
-6.6
-4.7
7.4
1.1
-9.4
-5.6
25.0
-6.9
1.3
0.2
8.9
12.2
17.1
-7.2
-12.5
-8.7
-4.4
-0.1
-5.7
16.1
1.7
17.5
8.2
-1.7
5.2
25.5
-3.5
8.0
5.8
-5.8
12M (%)
26.1
76.3
-1.4
92.1
99.1
130.0
-30.3
102.7
32.7
-29.1
42.8
28.7
35.8
34.5
22.5
2.4
27.6
-25.1
8.9
47.8
12.6
62.0
48.5
19.1
-12.7
37.7
137.3
57.7
36.3
91.0
12.6
8 December 2017
22

THEMATIC/STRATEGY RESEARCH GALLERY

REPORT GALLERY
RECENT INITIATING COVERAGE REPORTS
Rs

DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT GALLERY

Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock
broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOSL is a subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. (MOFSL). MOFSL is a listed
public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock
Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Metropolitan Stock Exchange Of India Ltd. (MSE) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited
(CDSL) & National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products. Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are
available on the website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf
Pending Regulatory Enquiries against Motilal Oswal Securities Limited by SEBI:
SEBI pursuant to a complaint from client Shri C.R. Mohanraj alleging unauthorized trading, issued a letter dated 29th April 2014 to MOSL notifying appointment of an Adjudicating Officer as per SEBI regulations to hold
inquiry and adjudge violation of SEBI Regulations; MOSL requested SEBI to provide all documents, records, investigation report relied upon by SEBI which were referred in Show Cause Notice and also sought personal
hearing. The matter is currently pending.
MOSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relative may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in
the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
MOSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from
time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn
brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential
conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the
recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research
report.
Research Analyst may have served as director/officer, etc. in the subject company in the last 12 month period. MOSL and/or its associates may have received any compensation from the subject company in the past
12 months.
In the last 12 months period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report, MOSL or any of its associates may have:
managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,
received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,
received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.
Subject Company may have been a client of MOSL or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
MOSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. To enhance transparency, MOSL has incorporated a Disclosure
of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research
Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to,
copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered
true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not
been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice.
The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though
disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of the stock
Companies where there is interest
No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical Research. Proprietary
trading desk of MOSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to
subject company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,
regulation or which would subject MOSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC)
pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with
Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Hong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any
investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities,
products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research
Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOSL is
not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States.
Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S.
persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional
investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional
investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and
interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S.
registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and
therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial Advisors Regulations and is a
subsidiary of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited in India. This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore to accredited investors, as defined in
the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time. In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following
representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person
or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of
offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or
appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations
as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to
determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative
products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of
the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the
views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time
without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities
mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities
functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already
available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is
being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not
directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would
be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to
certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or
representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
The
person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or
employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this
information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring
Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com,
Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836; CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100.
Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.:
INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd.
offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
13 December 2016
24