MOSt Quantitative

Outlook Weekly

Index

Nifty

Sensex

15th Dec 2017

CMP

10,333

33,462

Support

10150 / 10000

32500 / 32000

Resistance

10490 / 10650

33600 / 34000

NIFTY WEEKLY

Nifty formed a Hammer Candle on the Daily scale as it recovered sharply from the low of 10141

Index had a volatile week on the back of many economic data points

It has been moving in a broader range of 10094 to 10490 from last nine weeks

It also formed a Wedge pattern on the Daily scale where breakout could add momentum

In last two sessions bulls had a remarkable come back

Now index has to hold above 10330 zones to extent it move towards 10490 then 10650

On the downside, multiple supports are seen at 10150 then 10000 zones

SECTOR

NAME

Banks

Metals

Oil &Gas

Auto

OUTLOOK

FOR THE WEEK

Positive

Positive

Positive

Positive

POTENTIAL

MOVERS & SHAKERS

Hdfc Bank, Indusind Bank

Hindalco, Tata Steel

HPCL, IOC

TVS Motor, M&M

Chandan Taparia

Derivatives & Technical Analyst

1

MOSt Quantitative Outlook

Weekly

NIFTY DAILY

15th Dec 2017

Nifty index opened positive with a gap of around 100 points and headed towards 10373 levels. However it failed to hold its

half of the gains and corrected by around 50 points from higher levels. It formed a Spinning Top candle on the Daily chart and

closed near to its supply trend line by connecting recent swing highs of 10490 and 10409. It has been moving in a falling

wedge from last eight weeks and a decisive hold above 10330 could take it towards 10409 then life high of 10490 levels.

While on the downside now supports are shifting higher at 10250 then 10200 zones.

NIFTY OPTIONS OI VS PRICE

Nifty index had a volatile week as it fell to 10141 and recovered sharply to close with the gains of 0.66% at 10333. India VIX

moved up sharply by 9.29% at 14.94 and during the week volatility hit the 10 months high at 17.39. Higher volatility was

keeping the up and down swing in the market throughout the week. Now Volatility has to cool down below 13 zones to get

the smooth ride to start the next leg of rally towards new high territory. On the option front, maximum Put open interest is

at 10000 followed by 10200 strike while maximum Call OI is at 10500 followed by 10400 strike. We have seen significant Put

writing at 10300 and 10200 strike while Call writing is intact at 10450 and 10500 strikes. Put writing at higher strike suggests

shifting of the support while intact Call writing at 10450 and 10500 could restrict its upside momentum. Option band signifies

a broader trading band between 10000 to 10500 while immediate band is narrowing from 10200 to 10500 for next coming

sessions.

2

MOSt Quantitative Outlook

Weekly

NIFTY METAL INDEX

15th Dec 2017

Nifty Metal Index made a Double bottom pattern on the Daily chart with the support at 3520 zones. It formed two consecu-

tive Doji candles on weekly scales and negated its negative formation of lower top - lower bottom. Now a hold above 3700

zones could confirm its reversal with potential upcoming uptrend which could add momentum in the most of the Metal

counters. Selective longs can be taken in the stocks like Hindlaco, Tatasteel and Jswsteel.

HINDALCO

Hindalco is set to negate its negative price pattern of lower highs - lower lows on weekly scale. It formed reversal candle on

the weekly chart and also taking support at its horizontal trend line by connecting lows of 218 , 223 and 230 mark. It is turning

from major support after the correction of around 17% from higher levels, thus risk - reward ratio also favours for fresh long

position. We are recommending to buy with a stop below 235 for an upside target towards 257.

3

MOSt Quantitative Outlook

Weekly

OPTION STRATEGY

15th Dec 2017

NIFTY

BUY

BULL CALL SPREAD

3

3

It formed a Hammer Candle on the weekly scale

Fresh Put writing at higher strikes could provide it sup-

port

Intact Call writing at 10500 could restrict its momentum

Thus, a low risk Bull Call Spread is recommended

BUY 1 LOT OF NIFTY 10350 CALL

SELL 1 LOT OF NIFTY 10500 CALL

3

3

STOP LOSS SPREAD : 30 POINTS

TARGET SPREAD : 120 POINTS

4

MOSt Quantitative Outlook

Weekly

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