TeamLease Services
BSE SENSEX
33,837
S&P CNX
10,463
19 December 2017
Update | Sector: Others
CMP: INR2,014
TP: INR2,500(+24%)
More ups than downs
Valuation support vectors surmount risks; reiterate Buy
Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
TEAM IN
17
2336 / 850
9/44/97
34.4
0.5
30
56.8
In the backdrop of a limited listed history, lack of comparables to take cues from and
the yet-developing understanding of underlying business dynamics, we add context
and perspective to existing valuation metrics.
The exercise leads us to believe that an extension of the time horizon coupled with a
natural evolution of the business make a case for significant valuation triggers from
current levels – in line with the benefits of a long-term growth story unfolding.
Sustained superiority of financial performance because of industry trends, business
model and operational excellence continue strengthening our positive long-term
view on the stock.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2017 2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
30.4
37.5
45.9
Net Sales
0.4
0.6
0.8
EBITDA
0.7
0.7
1.1
PAT
38.8
43.2
64.2
EPS (INR)
167.6
11.4
48.4
Gr. (%)
222.9 266.1 330.3
BV/Sh (INR)
19.2
17.7
21.5
RoE (%)
19.0
17.9
21.5
RoCE (%)
51.9
46.5
31.4
P/E (x)
9.0
7.6
6.1
P/BV (x)
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-17 Jun-17 Sep-16
Promoter
43.2
43.5
45.6
DII
14.8
17.1
13.8
FII
21.6
18.9
19.2
Others
20.4
20.5
21.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Team Lease Serv.
Sensex - Rebased
2,200
1,850
1,500
1,150
800
PEGging to growth:
TEAM is currently trading at 31x FY19E and 23x FY20E
earnings, which when observed contextually does not appear steep. At 40%
earnings CAGR over FY18-20, a PEG of 0.7x is lower than that observed globally
across cycles. A PEG of 1x may be deemed par-for-the-course given the multi-year-
high-growth opportunity, and that translates to a 40% upside.
A short-lived discord:
While the stock seems undervalued on P/E, the fact that it is
trading at an EV of 37x FY19E and 27x FY20E EBITDA gives the impression of it
being rightly-priced, adjusted for growth (33% CAGR). However, when the time
horizon is extended longer, and we consider the possibility of cash deployment
(through acquisitions or dividends) and a gradual increase of tax rates five years
hence, this disconnect will disappear, as EBITDA growth will exceed PAT growth.
A different take on margins:
Sub-2% EBITDA margin can deceive into belief of
TEAM walking on thin ice. However, that remains a function of the high pass-
through component in the business (salary for staffed associates). If TEAM’s
commissions are considered as revenue (that is, taking the pass-through
component out of P&L), we land up with >85% gross margin and >45% EBITDA
margin as of FY17. Valuation metrics remain unmoved, as absolute profitability
remains unchanged from this angle; and this should allay any concerns around the
business hitting the red on margins.
Add to that the cash flow characteristics…:
Steady working capital needs and
minimal capital expenditure makes staffing a high cash generation (and conversion)
business. While 1.1/1.2% FCF margin on FY19/20E doesn’t reflect this métier,
ignore the pass-through and you’re looking at margins of 24/25%.
…combined with capital allocation comfort:
The options for the cash are
acquisitions and dividends. Even if the payout ratio is increased gradually as the
absolute amount of FCF moves higher (along with the cumulative cash balance),
the business has the potential to throw back 30-80% of PAT back at investors. A
dividend yield would act as additional support to valuations and also improve
return ratios once the cash starts bloating the denominator.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Sagar Lele – Research Analyst
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531
Ashish Chopra – Research Analyst
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530