ICICI Bank
BSE SENSEX
33,793
S&P CNX
10,443
3 January 2018
Update
| Sector:
Financials
CMP: INR315
TP: INR370 (+17%)
Buy
Capex recovery still sometime away; retail growth holding well
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2018E 2019E
Y/E Mar
NII
OP
NP
NIM (%)
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr (%)
BV/Sh (INR)*
RoE (%)
RoA (%)
AP/E (x)
AP/BV (x)
237.6
228.4
87.2
3.3
13.6
-11.1
129.6
8.8
1.1
17.0
1.6
262.1
253.3
109.2
3.2
17.0
25.2
139.7
10.5
1.2
12.7
1.4
ICICIBC IN
6,408
2,018.9/31.8
332 / 227
0/0/9
5197
100.0
2020E
302.5
295.7
139.8
3.2
21.8
28.0
158.9
12.4
1.4
8.8
1.3
We met ICICI Bank recently. Following are our key takeaways from the meeting:
Capex demand remains muted; maintains 18-20% growth guidance for retail
segment:
Credit demand from corporates remains muted and the management is
not seeing any signs of capex revival. Resolution of NCLT referred cases would give
more clarity on capex pickup and asset quality outlook. ICICIBC is aiming for ~15%
growth in domestic corporate portfolio (excluding restructured loans and loans to
companies included in the drilldown list) even as the overall corporate loan growth
remains a muted 4% YoY. Retail loan growth, however, is holding up well and the
bank maintained its retail loan growth guidance of 18-20% for FY18, led by
continued traction across product lines. Unsecured retail loans have increased to
9.6% of total retail loans and largely pertain to the bank’s existing customers.
Margins likely to moderate in 2HFY18:
ICICIBC has reported 12bp YoY expansion in
margins over 1HFY18 to 3.27%, aided by interest on income tax refund, strong CASA
growth and continued traction in retail loans. However, the absence of such one-off
gains, accelerated repricing of advances portfolio and migration of base rate loans
to MCLR will weigh heavy on margins in 2HFY18. On CASA, the bank is reaching out
to government clients to provide customized solutions, dashboard and MIS, which
will provide it a sticky business opportunity.
Monetization of subsidiaries on track; pace of decline in overseas loan portfolio to
moderate:
ICICIBC is open to evaluating opportunities to unlock value in its
subsidiaries. It has recently filed DRHP towards the public issue of its securities
business. ICICIBC currently holds 54.9%/55.9% stake in its life/general insurance
subsidiaries and will eventually look to retain majority stake in these subsidiaries. It
is not looking to reduce stake in AMC business, where it holds 51%. There are no
plans to sell stake in housing finance subsidiary as well. On overseas business,
ICICIBC indicated that the pace of decline in loan book will moderate (22% YoY
decline currently) and there exists some scope of capital repatriation from its
Canada subsidiary.
Provisioning expenses to stay elevated; requires INR20b of provisioning towards
second NCLT list:
ICICIBC expects credit cost to stay elevated in the near term, as it
needs to provide INR20b by March 2018 towards the second list of stressed
accounts given by the RBI. The bank has not given any guidance on haircuts
expected in NCLT cases. ICICIBC will be sharing its asset quality divergence details
along with 3QFY18 results, however mentioned that outside stressed asset pool the
maximum ticket size to any BB and below rated borrower is INR6b, which gives
comfort.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-17 Jun-17 Sep-16
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
0.0
32.0
59.4
8.7
0.0
30.4
60.0
9.6
0.0
27.6
63.3
9.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
ICICI Bank
Sensex - Rebased
350
300
250
200
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5540
| Anirvan Sarkar
(Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415 |
Piran Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.