Idea Cellular
BSE SENSEX
33,970
S&P CNX
10,505
4 January 2018
Update
| Sector:
Telecom
CMP: INR105
TP: INR120 (+15%)
Buy
Board approves raising INR32.5b via preferential issue
To provide much-needed liquidity amid high competitive intensity
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
IDEA IN
3,607
124 / 67
9/17/13
310.9
4.8
1944
57.6
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017 2018E 2019E
Net Sales
355.8 289.6 296.6
EBITDA
102.8
57.5
63.2
NP
-4.0
-47.6 -46.5
EPS (INR)
-1.1
-12.1 -11.8
EPS Gr. (%)
-116.2 992.6
-2.3
BV/Sh. (INR)
68.6
59.1
47.2
RoE (%)
-1.7
-19.9 -22.3
RoCE (%)
1.6
-2.3
-2.2
P/E (x)
-94.3
-8.6
-8.8
P/BV (x)
1.5
1.8
2.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.4
15.3
14.3
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-17 Jun-17 Sep-16
Promoter
42.4
42.4
42.2
DII
8.5
8.8
6.6
FII
26.5
25.9
25.1
Others
22.6
22.9
26.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Idea Cellular
Sensex - Rebased
130
110
90
70
50
Idea Cellular (IDEA) announced that the board has approved raising INR32.5b
via issuance of preferential shares to the Aditya Birla Group (ABG) at
INR99.5/share, implying 9% equity dilution. The board is also considering
raising additional INR35b, implying further 9% dilution.
In our view, equity dilution will take away potential gains from existing
shareholders, as the telecom market is likely to bottom out in the near term.
At the same time, we believe that fund-raising should provide IDEA with
much-needed liquidity to ramp-up network and protect market share against
its deep-pocketed peers, providing an edge in the current hyper-competitive
market.
IDEA’s FY18 net debt-to-EBITDA is estimated at a steep 9.3x. However, the
combined net debt post the merger with Vodafone could drop by INR225b to
INR871b, with net debt-to-EBITDA declining to 4.2x in FY20 and ~3x by FY21.
The stock is valued at 8.1x EV/EBITDA on FY20E combined EBITDA, factoring
in debt reduction and EBITDA synergies (720bp lower than Bharti). We have
revised our target price to INR120, with 8.7x EV/EBITDA for the combined
entity. We reiterate our Buy rating.
Issuance of preferential shares to dilute equity by 9%...
IDEA’s board approved to raise INR32.5b via preferential allotment of 326.6m
shares at INR99.5/share to promoter group companies (excluding the two listed
entities – Grasim and Hindalco). Additionally, it is also considering raising INR35b
via options such as preferential issue, QIP or rights issue. We note that the 326.6m
share issue will dilute its current equity base of 3.6b shares by 9%. If IDEA raises
additional equity of INR35b at a similar price (i.e. ~INR100), it would lead to overall
equity dilution of 19%. The company’s (ex-merger) EPS for FY19E stands at -INR13.
However, we note that combined EBITDA for Vodafone-Idea should potentially
grow at a CAGR of 28% over FY18-20E to INR210b, with a 10pp margin jump to
30%, led by steep synergy gains. This could pose upside risk to our current net loss
estimates.
…but provide wherewithal/war chest in a highly competitive market
Equity dilution of 9% will take away potential gains from existing investors, as we
expect the sector to bottom out over the next two quarters. However, in the
current hyper-competitive market – where deep-pocketed peers would see
Vodafone-Idea’s vulnerable leverage position as an opportunity to squeeze
liquidity and grab market share – we see fund-raising as a strong proactive action
from management. Equity funding will allow IDEA to a) support accelerated
network investment, b) protect its revenue/subscriber market share and c) create
war chest and also perception in the marketplace that Vodafone-Idea combined
stand in a strong cash liquidity position (even as the Vodafone-Idea merger moves
in a difficult phase). This could possibly settle the dust, as three large players –
Bharti, Vodafone-Idea and RJio – with similar market shares and steady FCF may
drive ARPU accretion instead of undercutting each other.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Aliasgar
Shakir
– Research Analyst
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com); +91 022 6129 1565
Hafeez Patel
– Research Analyst
(Hafeez.Patel@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3010 2611