9 January 2018
Update
| Sector:
Consumer
Emami
Buy
BSE SENSEX
34,353
S&P CNX
10,624
CMP: INR1,340
TP: INR1,655(+23%)
Rural recovery just the beginning of growth revival
Valuations attractive; maintain Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2017
HMN IN
227
1,350/985
3/19/1
304.1
4.8
200
27.3
We maintain our BUY rating on Emami, as:
It is a great play on rural demand growth and wholesale recovery.
Before the slowdown caused by extraordinary factors like demonetization, Emami
had the best track record among peers on consistency of earnings growth, which we
expect will make a comeback.
Emami has a formidable portfolio of dominant brands, with best-in-class R&D and
advertisement to support existing brands and new launches.
Despite likely resumption of better-than-peers’ earnings growth of 20% CAGR over
FY18-21, the stock trades in line with peer multiples.
Our target price of INR1655 implies a one-year upside of 23% and a two-year upside
of 39%. Our bull case upside is 33% for one year and 53% for two years.
2018E
2019E
Net Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
24.9
7.6
5.9
26.5
4.5
77.3
35.8
31.0
50.5
17.3
26.6
8.0
6.0
26.6
0.2
90.4
31.7
32.1
50.4
14.8
31.5
9.6
7.5
33.2
25.0
104.7
34.0
37.7
40.3
12.8
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Sep-17 Jun-17 Sep-16
Promoter
72.7
72.7
72.7
DII
4.2
3.5
2.3
FII
14.4
14.9
16.7
Others
8.6
8.9
8.2
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Emami
Sensex - Rebased
1,350
1,250
1,150
1,050
950
Prime play on rural demand growth and wholesale recovery
With the highest proportion of sales from rural and the highest proportion of sales
from wholesale, Emami is a great play on recovery in both channels. Rural demand
has already perked up from 2QFY18 and we believe will only pick up momentum
because of a confluence of positives like near-normal monsoon, benefits of
extension of DBT, rural wage increases, another year of healthy increase in
minimum support prices (MSPs) and farm loan waivers granted in the past few
months. In addition, the upcoming budget on February 1, 2018, the last full budget
before national elections in 2019, is likely to have schemes to benefit the rural
voter. The wholesale channel is likely to recover by 4QFY18. Emami will be the
biggest beneficiary of the resurgence in both these channels.
High quality play on rural recovery
Until as recently as the quarter just before demonetization, Emami had continued
its consistently best-of-breed earnings growth. Domestic EBITDA growth in 1HFY17
was 29% YoY; following 26% overall EBITDA CAGR over the preceding three years
(FY13-16) at a time when peer earnings had started slowing down. Emami also has
a concentrated portfolio of strong brands, with 80% of sales coming from
categories that are problem solving in nature and thus less prone to slowdown
compared to peers. In many key categories, penetration and distribution reach has
a long runway of growth, which Emami is looking to speed up with its Project
Dhanush (targeting to double rural reach in two years) and Project Race (working
with AC Nielsen on urban expansion).
Pace of innovation among the best of breed; R&D and advertising spend highest
among peers
Emami has launched 12 new products in the past 18 months at a time when there
has been a scarcity of launches by peers. Its best-of-breed R&D spends (1% of sales)
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy – Research Analyst
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1545
Vishal Punmiya – Research Analyst
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1547