United Breweries
BSE SENSEX
34,757
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg. Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,667
UBBL IN
264.4
313.1/4.8
1243 / 716
1/35/21
318.0
26.7
5 February 2018
Q3FY18 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
CMP: INR1,184 TP: INR1,380(+16%)
Buy
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
FY18E FY19E FY20E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
55.2
63.5
73.0
EBITDA
8.7
10.5
13.0
NP
3.7
4.6
6.0
EPS (INR)
14.1
17.4
22.9
EPS Growth (%)
62.0
23.9
31.2
BV/Sh. (INR)
100.3 115.4 135.2
RoE (%)
14.9
16.2
18.3
RoCE (%)
13.1
14.5
16.3
P/E (x)
84.2
67.9
51.8
P/BV (x)
11.8
10.3
8.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
36.5
30.5
24.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Volume, market share growth remains strong, margins below expectations
UBBL’s sales increased 17.1% YoY to INR12b
(est. of INR11.9b) in 3QFY18.
Volumes grew 12% YoY v/s 6% growth for the industry. Growth was achieved
despite the lack of supply for a large part of 3QFY18 in the state of
Maharashtra due to pricing issue (was resolved subsequently) and the route-
to-market change in West Bengal.
Gross margin shrunk 140bp YoY to 52.4%
(due to impact of higher commodity
costs and GST). Staff costs fell by 30bp YoY and other expenses by 140bp YoY,
possibly due to operating leverage led by healthy sales growth. EBITDA was up
by a healthy 19.3% YoY to INR1.5b, but missed our estimate of INR1.8b due to
lower-than-expected margins growth. Due to a higher-than-expected tax rate,
PAT fell 2.3% YoY to INR474m (est. of INR674m), despite healthy EBITDA
growth.
9MFY18 performance:
Net sales were up 14.5% YoY to INR41.5b. EBITDA rose
28.3% YoY to INR 6.9b, with the margin expanding 180bp YoY to 16.7%. PAT
increased 36.2% YoY to INR3b.
Management call takeaways:
(1) Market share increased 200bp YoY. (2)
Route-to-market change impact already witnessed in West Bengal, and will
come through in 4QFY18 for Punjab and Haryana (1-2% of sales). (3) The
recently introduced corporation model in UP could have positive implications
for leading brands; would also help reduce receivables risk. (4) Management
highlighted an improving business environment.
Valuation view:
Long-term volume and earnings growth opportunity (FY17 PAT
at USD 36m) is immense for India’s largest beer player, with strong barriers to
entry in the form of distribution, brewery reach, scale and brands. Operating
environment appears to be improving at a healthy pace, indicating strong pace
of earnings growth going forward. Valuing the company at 30x Dec’19E
EV/EBITDA (10% premium to peer average), we derive a TP of INR1,380.
Maintain
Buy
.
4Q
11,127
-8.4
10,116
1,011
-21.3
9.1
833
144
43
76
0
76
9
11.7
0
67
-87.1
0.6
1Q
16,742
7.0
13,559
3,184
9.4
19.0
649
142
63
2,456
0
2,456
837
34.1
0
1,619
10.1
9.7
FY18
2Q
3Q
12,764 11,971
23.1
17.1
10,545 10,445
2,219
1,526
83.1
19.3
17.4
12.7
650
650
127
93
12
8
1,454
791
0
0
1,454
791
515
317
35.4
40.1
0
0
938
474
246.9
-2.3
7.4
4.0
4QE
13,742
23.5
11,945
1,796
77.6
13.1
769
146
62
943
0
943
249
26.5
0
693
930.3
5.0
FY17
47,359
-2.1
40,947
6,412
-7.3
13.5
2,870
587
516
3,472
0
3,472
1,178
33.9
0
2,293
-23.0
4.8
FY18E
55,219
16.6
46,494
8,725
36.1
15.8
2,718
508
144
5,643
0
5,643
1,918
34.0
4
3,721
62.2
6.7
FY18
3QE
11,890
16.0
10,068
1,822
39
15.3
690
180
50
1,002
0
1,002
328
33
0.0
674
31.4
5.7
Variance
0.7%
-16.2%
Standalone - Quarterly Earning Model
Y/E March
Net Sales
YoY Cha nge (%)
Tota l Expendi ture
EBITDA
YoY Cha nge (%)
Ma rgi ns (%)
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
Extra -Ord expens e
PBT
Ta x
Ra te (%)
MI & P/L of As s o. Cos .
Adj PAT
YoY Cha nge (%)
Ma rgi ns (%)
E: MOSL Es ti ma tes
1Q
15,642
7.5
12,733
2,909
17.1
18.6
637
148
136
2,260
0
2,260
790
34.9
0
1,471
20.4
9.4
FY17
2Q
3Q
10,368 10,222
-3.3
-6.8
9,156
8,942
1,212
1,280
-10.3
-28.9
11.7
12.5
702
698
141
153
8
330
376
759
0
0
376
759
106
274
28.1
36.1
0
0
271
485
-31.9
-48.1
2.6
4.7
-21.0%
-29.7%
Krishnan Sambamoorthy – Research analyst
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya – Research analyst
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.