28 February 2018

Market snapshot

Equities - India

Close

Chg .%

Sensex

34,346

-0.3

Nifty-50

10,554

-0.3

Nifty-M 100

19,682

-0.9

Equities-Global

Close

Chg .%

S&P 500

2,744

-1.3

Nasdaq

7,330

-1.2

FTSE 100

7,282

-0.1

DAX

12,491

-0.3

Hang Seng

12,647

-1.5

Nikkei 225

22,390

1.1

Commodities

Close

Chg .%

Brent (US$/Bbl)

66

-1.4

Gold ($/OZ)

1,318

-1.1

Cu (US$/MT)

6,986

-1.3

Almn (US$/MT)

2,172

0.3

Currency

Close

Chg .%

USD/INR

64.9

0.1

USD/EUR

1.2

-0.7

USD/JPY

107.3

0.4

YIELD (%)

Close

1MChg

10 Yrs G-Sec

7.7

-0.02

10 Yrs AAA Corp

8.2

-0.02

Flows (USD b)

27-Feb

MTD

FIIs

-0.1

-1.7

DIIs

0.2

2.7

Volumes (INRb)

27-Feb

MTD*

Cash

314

379

F&O

5,555

8,471

Note: YTD is calendar year, *Avg

YTD.%

0.9

0.2

-6.9

YTD.%

2.6

6.2

-5.3

-3.3

8.0

-1.6

YTD.%

-0.7

1.2

-3.1

-3.7

YTD.%

1.6

1.9

-4.8

YTDchg

0.3

0.3

YTD

0.5

2.6

YTD*

405

7,814

Today’s top research idea

UPL (Initiating Coverage): Reaping growth

Generic pesticides, backward integration to drive profitability



A multitude of products going off-patent would unleash a generics opportunity

of ~USD3b over CY17-20. With strong R&D and integrated manufacturing

facilities, UPL is in a sweet spot to grab the impending opportunity in the

generics market.



The company is also set to benefit from the increasing phenomenon of pest

resistance across crops with its broad array of products, which enables it to

launch new combinations to tackle resistance.



Pest resistance to major agrochemical ‘glyphosate’ (market size of ~USD5b)

could provide UPL with its next key growth driver – its variant, ‘gluphosinate’.



We expect UPL to clock ~12% revenue CAGR and ~14% PAT CAGR over FY18-20

and value the company at 17x FY20E EPS of INR55.6, arriving at a TP of INR945.

Initiate coverage with Buy.

Research covered

Cos/Sector

Key Highlights

UPL (Initiating Coverage) Reaping growth

Auto Sales Estimate

Overloading ban to continue driving CV wholesales

Piping hot news

Nirav Modi's Firestar Diamond files for bankruptcy as PNB fraud hits $2 b



The international jewelry business that's part of the empire controlled by Nirav

Modi, a billionaire accused of masterminding India’s biggest bank fraud, has

filed for bankruptcy in the US just as the Indian lender at the heart …

Chart of the Day: UPL (Initiating Coverage): Reaping growth

EBITDA margin to expand 80bp over FY18-20

PAT to post CAGR of ~14% over FY18-20

Source: Company, MOSL

Source: Company, MOSL

Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

In the news today

Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link

1

Dalmia Bharat pips UltraTech to

win bid for Binani Cement

Dalmia Bharat Cement Ltd on

Tuesday emerged the winner for

troubled Binani Cement Ltd,

beating India’s largest cement

maker UltraTech Cement Ltd

which had put in a nearly identical

bid. The creditors’ panel

supervising the insolvency

proceedings of Binani Cement …

2

Record foodgrain production signals a recovery in agriculture

Indian farmers, battling adversities on farms and off them, have brought

glad tidings for the rest of the nation. Foodgrain production is set to rise to

a record 277.5 million tonnes in 2017-18, according to the agriculture

ministry. At this level, food production is about 0.9% higher than the 275.1

million tonnes produced in 2016-17, also a record crop year, the second

advance estimates of crop production released by the ministry showed on

Tuesday. The crop year is from July to June.

3

GST revenue slips in January to

₹86,318

cr., from December

The Centre collected ₹86,318

crore in revenue from the Goods

and Services Tax in January,

according to official data released

on Tuesday. “The last date for

filing of GSTR 3B return for the

month of January 2018 was

February 20, 2018,” the

government said in a release. “The

total revenue received under GST

for January …

4

Firms line up IPOs worth

Rs12,000 crore in March

After a dull start to the year,

activity in the initial public offering

(IPO) market in India is expected

to pick up pace with companies

expected to raise more than

Rs12,000 crore in the month of

March. The first two months of

this year witnessed a total IPO

fund-raising of Rs3,559 crore from

six offerings, with February

accounting for just two, data …

5

Probe NPAs of over Rs 50

crore; make plans to combat

risks: Finmin to PSBs

Stung by the fraud at Punjab

National Bank and more such

cases being unearthed at other

lenders, the government has

ordered all state-run banks to

examine non-performing loans of

more than Rs 50 crore for any

sign of similar wrongdoing. They

have been given 15 days to

prepare a “pre-emptive” …

6

Banks’ NPA from gem and

jewellery sector rises to 30%

he act of ‘loot and scoot’, unleased

by diamond merchant Nirav Modi

and Gitanjali Gems promoter-

Mehul Choksi, would increase

banks’ non-performing assets from

the gem and jewellery sector to 30

per cent from 12 per cent. Punjab

National Bank had extended

guarantees to jeweller Nirav Modi

and his associates to raise ₹11,400

crore abroad without taking …

28 February 2018

7

BPCL may sell up to 24% in

Bina Refinery in Madhya

Pradesh

National oil companies of Oman,

Kuwait and Abu Dhabi are in

talks to buy up to 24% stake in

Madhya Pradesh’s Bina refinery,

two people aware of the

development said. Bharat Oman

Refineries Ltd (BORL), which

operates the refinery, is an equal

joint venture between Bharat

Petroleum Corp. Ltd (BPCL) of

India and Oman Oil Co. …

2

Initiating Coverage | Sector: Agrochemicals

UPL

Buy

BSE Sensex

34,346

S&P CNX

10,554

CMP: INR721

TP: INR945(+31%)

Stock Info

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

52-Week Range (INR)

M.Cap. (INR b)

M.Cap. (USD b)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

Avg Val, (INR m)

Free float (%)

UPLL IN

505

902 / 675

364.1

5.6

-1/-23/-18

1220.0

72.2

UPL is the second largest post-patent global player in crop protection. It has evolved

from a crop protection chemicals company into a complete agro solutions provider,

offering seeds, crop protection chemicals, biologicals, soil nutrients and post-harvest

solutions. It is well diversified across geographies, with revenue contribution of 32%

from Latin America, 20% from India, 17% from North America, 13% from Europe, and

18% from Rest of the World.

Reaping growth

Generic pesticides, backward integration to drive profitability



Financial Snapshot (INR b)

Y/E Mar

2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales

175.8 196.1 222.3

EBITDA

35.8

40.7

47.0

NP

21.7

23.8

28.1

EPS (INR)

43.0

47.2

55.6

EPS Gr. (%)

8.9

9.7

17.9

BV/Sh. (INR)

180.7 218.2 262.4

P/E (x)

16.8

15.3

13.0

P/BV (x)

4.0

3.3

2.7

RoE (%)

26.3

23.6

23.1

RoCE (%)

19.3

18.9

19.3

Shareholding pattern (%)

As On

Dec-17 Sep-17 Dec-16

Promoter

DII

FII

Others

27.8

11.5

39.6

21.1

27.9

10.9

40.8

20.5

27.8

9.7

51.9

10.6







A multitude of products going off-patent would unleash a generics opportunity of

~USD3b over CY17-20. With strong R&D and integrated manufacturing facilities,

UPL is in a sweet spot to grab the impending opportunity in the generics market.

The company is also set to benefit from the increasing phenomenon of pest

resistance across crops with its broad array of products, which enables it to

launch new combinations to tackle resistance.

Pest resistance to major agrochemical ‘glyphosate’ (market size of ~USD5b) could

provide UPL with its next key growth driver – its variant, ‘gluphosinate’.

We expect UPL to clock ~12% revenue CAGR and ~14% PAT CAGR over FY18-20

and value the company at 17x FY20E EPS of INR55.6, arriving at a TP of INR945.

Initiate coverage with Buy.

Strong R&D, backward integration to help grab fungicide opportunity

UPL possesses in-house manufacturing expertise, reducing its dependence on

third-party partners. Backward integration enables 70-75% of its manufacturing

to take place in-house (50-55% in India and 20% overseas). It imports 10-15%

from China and Europe (France and UK). Its gross margin was at 53% in FY17

against domestic player average of 43.6% (FY17) and global player average of

35.6% (CY16). The size of the global fungicides market is USD15b (CY17) and its

share in the global agrochemicals market has increased from ~20% in CY00 to

27% in CY17. Given the high growth expected in fungicides, UPL too has aligned

itself with the industry – the contribution of fungicides to its revenue has

increased from 5% in FY03 to 29% in FY17. With just ~4.5% share in the global

fungicides market, UPL has immense growth opportunity in the segment.

UPL

Reaping Growth

Products worth USD3b going off-patent – opportunity unleashed for UPL

Products worth USD3.7b have already gone off-patent over CY15-17. This has

led to a shift from the use of high value patented products to generic

agrochemicals, enabling 16% CAGR for UPL over FY15-17. The multitude of

products going off-patent is expected to create ~USD3b opportunity for the

generics industry over CY17-20. UPL is adept at identifying and registering

products attracting robust demand even after going off-patent and is therefore

expected to leverage the impending opportunity well. The generics opportunity

has been supported by subdued farm income, which should continue, as higher

closing stocks would keep prices of agricultural commodities in check.

3

Sumant Kumar

+

91 22 3078 4702

Sumant.Kumar@motilaloswal.com

28 February 2018

‘Gluphosinate’ herbicide likely to be a boon for UPL

In CY14, UPL launched two brands of the herbicide, gluphosinate in the USA for

soybean and corn to fill gaps in its portfolio both from a crop and regional

perspective. One brand,

Lifeline

is targeted at regions outside the Midwest. The

other brand,

Interline

is solely for the Midwest, given the quantum of area under

soybean and corn cultivation in the region. The company has gradually established

presence of gluphosinate in markets across geographies and now competes directly

with glyphosate, the size of which is estimated at ~USD5b. Additionally, glyphosate

has been facing headwinds, as the targeted herbs have gradually developed

resistance against it and the active ingredient is also under evaluation by WHO for

being carcinogenic in nature. Given the headwinds surrounding glyphosate,

gluphosinate could be the next key growth driver for the company.

New launches and branded products to drive growth

UPL has been continuously investing in brand building and innovation, and this has

paid rich dividends. Its EBITDA margin has improved from 15-16% over FY09-10 to

19-20% over FY16-17. Branded and innovative products command higher margins

than commoditized products. The revenue share of branded products has gradually

increased from 75% in FY14 to 86% in FY17. The company has launched over 240

products and filed 195 patents over FY15-17. Its global product registrations have

increased from 4,692 in FY15 to 5,934 in FY17. The revenue contribution from

innovative products launched in the past three years has grown from 5% in FY15 to

15% in FY17. Revenue from innovative products is likely to improve further, aided by

products launched in the last 2-3 years and by planned product launches across the

globe in the next 2-3 years. Rising contribution of new products is likely to improve

the revenue mix; higher share of value-added products will aid revenue growth.

Valuation and view

We believe UPL is one of the best bets on the global agrochemicals industry, as it

offers (a) a robust product pipeline, (b) an integrated business model (backward

integration of 70-75%), (c) a broad product portfolio covering various crops across

seasons, (d) geographical diversification, and (e) scope to gain further market share

(from the current ~4%). The stock has re-rated from a one-year forward P/E of 7x

(FY14) to a one-year forward P/E of 16x (FY18E). We expect the re-rating to continue

on improving fundamentals coupled with healthy earnings growth. At the current

market price, average free cash flow yield works out to 4.3% over FY18-20 against

the last three years’ average of 4%. We estimate ~12% CAGR in sales and ~14%

CAGR in PAT over FY18-20, with EBITDA margin expanding 80bp to 21.2%. We value

UPL at 17x FY20E EPS of INR55.6, arriving at a TP of INR945. We initiate coverage

with

Buy.

28 February 2018

4

Sector Update | 27 February 2018

Automobiles

Feb-18 Sales Estimates

Overloading ban to continue driving CV wholesales

2W/PV retail sales in key markets impacted by Holashtak

Our interaction with leading channel partners indicates continued demand momentum

across segments. However, retails in the month are impacted by inauspicious days of

Holashtak in key markets like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh (UP).

PV retails are healthy, driven by strong rural sales and healthy demand for newly launched

products. Momentum in CV wholesales is expected to remain healthy, driven by strict

overloading vigilance. However, supply has remained constrained due to limited

availability of key components. Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) and TVSL are witnessing better

retails than Bajaj Auto (BJAUT). Royal Enfield (RE) demand remains weak in key rural

markets.

Key highlights:



CV wholesales momentum is expected to remain strong. Strict vigilance of overloading

ban in key northern markets has ensured healthy retails.



We expect Ashok Leyland’s (AL) wholesales to increase 27% YoY to 17.9k units, with

HCV and LCV expected to grow at 19.2% YoY and 60.7%, respectively. Tata Motors

(TTMT) and VE Commercial’s (VECV) CV sales are expected to grow by 28% each.



In the PV segment, Maruti Suzuki’s (MSIL) dispatches are expected to grow 18% YoY to

153.8k units. Compact and UV segments continue to grow robustly at 41.2% and

17.6%, respectively.



TTMT’s PV segment is expected to grow 54.8% YoY, led by its new SUV

Nexon,

as well

as other new models like Tiago, Tigor and Hexa.



M&M’s volumes are expected to increase 14.8% YoY to 66.3k units, as tractor and UV

sales are expected to grow 19.9% and 10.5%, respectively.



In the 2W segment, BJAUT’s dispatches are expected increase 25.8% YoY to 344k units,

led by growth of 24.8% in domestic sales and 27.2% in exports.



HMCL’s wholesales are expected to grow 14.8% YoY (-6.1% MoM) to 602.5k units.



TVSL is expected to grow at 28.6% YoY, as motorcycle, scooter, moped and 3W are

expected to grow by 61%, 26.1%, 3.5% and 72.3%, respectively. Exports are expected

to improve by 17.8% YoY to 45k units.



RE volumes are expected to grow by 26.6% YoY to 74k units.



We prefer 4Ws over 2Ws and CVs due to stronger volume growth and a stable

competitive environment. While we expect 2W volumes to benefit from a rural

recovery in the near term, competitive intensity remains high in the segment due to

changing customer preferences.



Our top picks in autos are Maruti Suzuki and Motherson Sumi among large caps, and

Ashok Leyland and Amara Raja among midcaps. We also consider M&M as the best

bet on a rural market recovery.

28 February 2018

5

In conversation

1. GODREJ PROPERTIES : See a lot of new investment & project

opportunities in NCR market; Pirojsha Godrej, Executive Chairman



















NCR market has been a key part of company’s growth strategy. Want to focus

on business development activities in the top-four markets in the country which

are Mumbai, NCR, Bangalore and Pune. These contribute to the vast majority of

the rally of real estate sold.

Very happy with the response received in the NCR market.

in the process of launching a new project in Sohna, NCR and that project has

received a very strong response. So the NCR market will continue to be one

which will see a lot of new investment and lot of new project opportunities in.

Quite positive with the momentum both in business development and sales so

that should lead to a pretty healthy pipeline for the next year.

The next financial year should be best ever year for new launches.

Prices have been flattish for the most parts of the country. On an average many

places in NCR are seeing a 20-30 percent price reduction.

The downturn of the real estate sector has continued for 4th-5th year now.

Situation wills turnaround quite significantly over the next year or two.

See prices start picking up over the next year or two.

Process of consolidation in the industry was already underway much before

RERA but it is fair to say that RERA has added a lot of impetus to that process.

2. PARAG MILK FOODS : Margin can exceed 10% mark in Q4;

Devendra Shah, Chairman











Procuring price for milk has decreased 7-8 percent compared to last year.

High growth seen in value added products.

Gross margins expected to remain at 30-32 percent mark.

Current milk procurement price is at Rs 23.50 per litre.

Margins can exceed 10 percent mark in Q4.

3. PVR : Will close FY18 with footfalls of around 75-80m, expect

100m footfalls in FY19; Ajay Bijli, CMD











Have already opened about 49 screens this year and there is another 10-11

more that company can open in March. Hopefully should be closing at about 62-

63 screens this year.

Next year have a very good ramp up of almost 100 screens. It is a mix of screens

in different parts of the country and in different catchments.

Probably will end-up closing at about Rs 280-290 crore of ad revenues. Company

grows at about 18 percent roughly every year so that trajectory will continue to

remain.

Revenues will close this year at about Rs 2,350 crore and looking at about 20

percent increase next year.

On footfalls, this year probably will be closing at about 75-80 million. Next year

with the addition of another 100 screens, company could touch a figure of at

least about 100 million people visiting cinemas.

28 February 2018

6

4. HINDALCO : Getting a clear policy for mining other minerals is

most critical; Satish Pai, MD







Hope that import duties being considered by the US on aluminium and steel

sectors don’t impact Indian trade.

Getting an exploration going and getting a clear policy so that mines can be

opened.

The eternal compromise between getting a balance between forest and the

mining sector is probably the most critical thing to solve. So getting a

sustainable development framework clear is very critical.

5. MERCATOR : DGH approved field development plan for jyoti-1

& jyoti-2 oil discoveries; Shalabh Mittal, MD & CEO











Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) has approved field development

plan for what could be 23 million barrels of recoverable oil in a field.

This is an exciting development for the company. Have invested last few years

on developing this oil well.

Trial production targeted to begin in March 2018.

Oil field is much larger. Talking about only two wells here, Jyoti-1 and Jyoti-2.

There is a revenue sharing as per the production plan and government gets

about 70 percent of what it is sold at.

28 February 2018

7

From the think tank

1. Incremental policy progress, one fraud at a time



Science is said to progress one death at a time. Public policy makes progress, one

fraud at a time. Yes, amid all the anger and hand-wringing over the scam involving

Punjab National Bank (PNB), it is important to recognize that frauds help systemic

improvements. In a country of 1.3 billion people, with systems and incentives rife

with exploitation, fraud is inevitable. When it is exposed, one more loophole is

plugged even as several others remain open for exploitation. In a recent speech,

Y.V. Reddy said the problem of non-performing assets (NPA) was not a banking

crisis. He said there was no run on the banks and, second, with the owner and

capital provider being the state, bank solvency was not in doubt either. Hence, he

said, NPA was a problem but not a crisis. Fair enough. But the PNB scandal might

make him rethink. Even if the fraud and the amount involved are not of crisis

proportions, public anger suggests that it be deemed a national crisis.

2. Uttar Pradesh, India’s biggest state, is still its biggest problem



Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state, is also its greatest challenge. It has about as

many people as Brazil but, according to Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself,

suffers from development indicators more similar to sub-Saharan Africa than

anywhere else in Asia. Anyone who wants India to live up to its potential has to

figure out how to fix UP. And that isn’t going to be easy. You’d need somehow

to turn investors positive on a state burdened by overstretched infrastructure,

an unqualified workforce, endemic corruption, hours-long power cuts and

widespread lawlessness. Last week, the state’s chief minister, a controversial

monk-turned-politician who calls himself “Yogi” Adityanath, held a giant

“investor summit” in UP’s capital, Lucknow. Modi’s choice of Adityanath to lead

the state last year shocked many; the pugnacious Hindu nationalist is better

known for his history of startling anti-Muslim rhetoric than for his

pronouncements on policy or governance.

3. India Canada relations remain frozen in time



In November 2012, then Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper made an official

six-day visit to India, accompanied by his wife. He was welcomed at the airport by

former Indian minister of state for human resource development Shashi Tharoor.

Harper’s itinerary included Agra, Bengaluru, Chandigarh and New Delhi with stops

at symbolic sites like the Taj Mahal, Keshgarh Sahib Gurudwara in Anandpur and

Someshwara Temple in Bengaluru where Harper and his wife garlanded each other

with Mysuru jasmine buds, observing thereafter “we have married again”.

Between meetings with business and government leaders where the former

Canadian prime minister pushed for greater bilateral trade and investment, Harper

was admonished by the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government over

alleged support from Canadian Sikhs for the establishment of Khalistan. Harper

voiced his unequivocal support of “a united India” alongside his contingent that

had several ministers of Sikh origin.

28 February 2018

8

4. 15th finance commission: mandate sans mission



Over the last 70 years, the form and functioning of federalism has constantly

evolved. Yet, fiscal federal policymaking has stagnated. It has kept pace neither

with the changing politics nor with the economics of the federal set-up. The

mandate given to the 15th Finance Commission is yet another example of this

policy stagnation. Even though the institutional landscape of Indian federalism has

been changed for good—Planning Commission, the extra-constitutional intruder,

wound up and the first genuinely federal institution, the goods and services tax

(GST) Council created—the terms of reference (TOR) of the 15th Finance

Commission are disappointingly routine and ritualistic. Indeed, the TOR are also

dangerously regressive and inimical to federalism. A serious inadequacy in the TOR

is in not recognizing the way in which the GST regime has, and will, change the face

of fiscal federalism in India. The fundamental change in tax regime has neither

appropriately informed the TOR of the 15th Finance Commission nor adequately

taken cognizance of its implication on the role of the 15th Finance Commission.

International

5. Crypto hawks and doves



A few days ago, President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela announced that his

government had launched a new state-sponsored cryptocurrency called the

petro. He claimed that $735 million worth of the new currency had already been

sold, though observers are skeptical, unless state entities have been obliged to

buy them. Even they will find it hard to do so, however, as the technology

platform on which the petro will be traded has not yet been confirmed.

International demand for the petro will not be helped by recent

pronouncements from Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, the “sages of

Omaha” who still control Berkshire Hathaway. Speaking of cryptocurrencies in

general, Buffett was scathing. “I can say almost with certainty that they will

come to a bad end,” he declared in January, while noting for good measure that

he would be glad to buy put options on every one of them. Munger is, if

anything, even more hostile, characterizing Bitcoin in particular as “totally

asinine” and a “noxious poison.” Not much room for doubt there.

28 February 2018

9

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

(INR)

816

138

3034

773

19050

1574

27142

1358

871

209

3588

739

238

8892

327

373

676

Valuation snapshot

Company

Automobiles

Amara Raja

Ashok Ley.

Bajaj Auto

Bharat Forge

Bosch

CEAT

Eicher Mot.

Endurance Tech.

Escorts

Exide Ind

Hero Moto

M&M

Mahindra CIE

Maruti Suzuki

Motherson Sumi

Tata Motors

TVS Motor

Aggregate

Banks - Private

AU Small Finance

Axis Bank

DCB Bank

Equitas Hold.

Federal Bank

HDFC Bank

ICICI Bank

IDFC Bank

IndusInd

J&K Bank

Kotak Mah. Bk

RBL Bank

South Indian

Yes Bank

Aggregate

Banks - PSU

BOB

BOI

Canara

Indian Bk

PNB

SBI

Union Bk

Aggregate

NBFCs

Aditya Birla Cap

Bajaj Fin.

Capital First

Cholaman.Inv.&F

n

Dewan Hsg.

GRUH Fin.

HDFC

HDFC Stand. Life

Indiabulls Hsg

Reco

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Sell

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

TP % Upside

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

(INR) Downside FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E

1035

158

4031

880

21951

1899

34764

1540

714

268

3986

889

303

10972

437

515

741

27

15

33

14

15

21

28

13

-18

28

11

20

27

23

34

38

10

28.3 34.7 41.4

4.9

6.2

7.7

150.3 174.1 201.6

20.2 26.8 35.2

459.1 595.2 731.7

63.1 84.7 111.7

829.4 1,053.0 1,335.0

28.2 38.5 51.3

36.6 45.6 54.9

8.0 10.2 11.6

185.0 200.1 212.6

37.7 43.9 48.4

9.6 12.2 15.1

275.6 369.9 471.3

8.1 12.5 17.5

28.0 57.9 58.5

13.9 25.1 33.9

0.9

22.7 19.4

7.8

26.7 24.0

6.5

15.8 15.8

54.2 32.7 31.5

-3.0 29.6 22.9

-32.3 34.1 31.9

34.5 27.0 26.8

20.1 36.7 33.2

90.4 24.3 20.6

-1.3 27.5 13.6

9.4

8.2

6.2

37.8 16.4 10.1

107.8 27.2 23.9

10.8 34.2 27.4

5.0

54.7 39.6

41.1 107.1 1.1

18.5 80.5 34.9

19.9 45.2 15.1

-42.8 43.9 41.1

-4.4 111.4 43.7

5.3

22.2 21.4

-81.6 616.0 53.4

13.3 19.1 26.1

18.0 20.3 25.2

-18.3 32.0 27.6

0.4

7.0

21.9

27.0 29.2 28.5

LP

41.6 37.7

22.0 26.9 30.5

33.0 43.7 33.2

-22.6 97.1 30.4

24.8 31.2 28.8

15.6 35.1 29.8

28.9

28.1

20.2

38.3

41.5

24.9

32.7

48.2

23.8

26.1

19.4

19.6

24.8

32.3

40.4

13.3

48.5

25.0

55.3

36.6

22.4

161.0

17.5

28.4

25.6

17.3

27.6

7.9

33.4

31.1

14.0

18.0

27.4

23.5

22.1

17.4

28.9

32.0

18.6

25.8

35.2

19.1

20.5

17.9

16.8

19.5

24.0

26.1

6.4

26.9

17.2

38.4

17.3

18.4

22.5

14.7

23.6

19.4

16.1

21.3

5.6

26.3

21.6

7.1

13.7

20.3

4.7

5.9

4.7

7.5

6.0

2.4

10.4

9.3

3.6

3.3

6.2

3.1

2.4

6.5

7.3

1.8

11.1

4.5

7.3

2.0

2.0

2.2

1.5

4.2

2.4

1.1

4.4

0.7

4.4

3.2

1.0

3.0

3.0

0.9

0.7

0.6

1.0

0.6

1.2

0.5

0.9

4.4

5.8

2.5

4.4

2.0

16.8

5.0

3.1

4.0

4.0

5.1

4.2

6.2

5.4

2.2

7.8

7.7

3.1

2.9

5.4

2.8

2.2

5.6

6.1

1.4

8.3

3.7

6.1

1.8

1.8

2.0

1.4

3.7

2.2

1.1

3.7

0.6

3.8

2.8

0.9

2.5

2.7

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.9

0.5

1.1

0.4

0.8

3.4

4.9

2.2

3.7

1.8

13.8

4.3

2.6

3.5

17.3

22.1

24.2

21.0

15.2

10.1

36.2

21.0

17.2

12.6

34.0

14.4

10.4

19.8

19.2

14.7

24.9

17.9

14.1

5.9

10.1

1.4

9.4

16.7

8.1

6.8

17.0

8.9

13.2

12.2

6.9

17.6

11.0

2.0

-6.5

2.3

10.8

2.9

1.6

-16.7

0.3

12.6

20.1

13.7

20.4

14.0

32.9

17.6

21.7

29.9

18.3

24.7

25.3

23.5

17.9

12.3

34.6

23.9

17.3

14.4

32.0

14.4

11.7

22.8

25.4

24.3

35.3

21.7

17.2

11.1

10.4

9.5

9.8

16.6

10.1

6.9

19.1

11.9

14.3

13.8

12.7

19.9

13.3

5.5

0.6

6.8

11.9

4.3

8.4

2.7

5.7

12.4

19.8

15.6

20.2

15.8

32.2

16.5

21.1

30.4

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

587

538

165

149

96

1904

320

52

1685

68

1093

491

27

327

705

710

188

205

149

2350

405

65

2076

100

1220

680

38

410

20

32

14

37

55

23

27

25

23

47

12

39

41

25

10.6

14.7

7.4

0.9

5.5

67.0

12.5

3.0

61.1

8.6

32.7

15.8

1.9

18.2

15.3

31.0

9.0

6.6

6.5

80.6

16.5

3.2

78.9

12.2

41.5

22.7

3.8

23.9

21.6

44.6

10.9

10.2

8.2

100.9

21.0

3.9

101.4

16.8

54.2

30.3

4.9

30.8

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

141

118

296

312

98

268

103

185

150

415

430

215

375

145

31

27

40

38

119

40

41

9.8

-15.6

12.6

34.1

5.7

3.2

-40.5

16.7

1.1

37.3

40.6

8.5

18.0

5.9

23.7

3.7

70.6

46.5

15.7

29.7

15.3

182.1 70.7 42.0 14.5

8.5

Loss

LP 222.3 NM 103.9

-33.0 196.8 89.1 23.5

7.9

16.4 19.3 14.5

9.2

7.7

-8.8 49.5 84.7 17.3 11.6

978.7 459.4 65.3 83.5 14.9

PL

LP 158.0 NM 17.4

-72.8 2,102 71.3 313.8 14.3

NA

42.3

38.9

34.5

26.5

22.1

8.0

5.4

32.8

45.2

35.4

30.2

18.7

26.8

18.8

14.0

13.9

15.4

42.4

34.2

27.5

21.5

26.1

23.4

16.3

25.2

22.1

45.3

36.4

19.6

23.7

15.1

56.1

42.5

99.8

14.1

31.2

26.9

15.1

19.9

11.9

47.2

37.3

87.6

12.2

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

167

1657

671

1462

564

557

1827

470

1281

225

2330

960

1520

720

540

2260

485

1630

35

41

43

4

28

-3

24

3

27

3.7

45.6

34.2

61.8

5.3

61.7

44.6

73.3

7.6

82.8

56.8

89.1

37.4 47.5 59.9

9.9 11.8 14.6

43.0 49.0 57.0

4.7

5.4

6.7

91.1 105.1 128.3

28 February 2018

10

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

(INR)

165

510

600

440

390

1219

554

1937

1348

TP % Upside

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

(INR) Downside FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E

240

45

7.4 11.0 13.5 42.2 47.1 23.2

608

19

38.5 44.3 52.6

0.6

15.2 18.7

750

25

18.6 24.2 30.0 24.0 29.6 24.1

575

31

13.9 19.2 23.0 95.8 38.7 19.4

475

22

43.8 44.8 49.3 48.1

2.3

10.2

1750

44

51.4 69.0 92.3 62.4 34.4 33.7

740

34

33.4 39.0 46.0 14.6 16.8 18.1

2500

1750

29

30

114.2 140.0 166.8

78.7 104.8 125.9

35.4

42.1

28.2

12.1

12.6

123.6

36.0

9.8

-72.2

-12.4

84.1

19.4

35.5

15.7

10.9

18.4

-7.4

76.0

16.4

17.2

22.6

33.1

22.8

52.0

12.0

-2.6

48.2

26.1

63.3

34.6

9.6

21.6

16.6

18.8

53.8

21.5

21.4

4.9

12.4

19.9

19.2

20.2

22.6

16.2

6.3

37.5

26.9

18.4

58.8

18.6

13.9

24.1

28.5

19.2

13.8

23.7

12.5

10.3

13.8

18.8

30.4

23.6

19.5

39.0

21.4

37.7

36.0

35.2

27.2

88.7

33.4

39.7

34.6

66.2

31.1

31.2

20.2

25.1

19.7

16.2

19.1

14.2

17.4

Valuation snapshot

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E

22.2 15.1

3.2

2.7

13.3 11.5

2.0

1.8

32.2 24.8

4.5

4.0

31.7 22.8

3.0

2.7

8.9

8.7

2.0

1.7

23.7 17.7

3.3

2.9

16.6 14.2

2.6

2.2

17.0

17.1

29.1

77.2

21.5

30.5

44.2

45.2

72.5

34.8

39.1

44.9

25.7

27.3

58.9

42.4

41.0

16.8

33.7

32.8

41.8

34.4

103.9

49.0

32.9

42.2

23.1

46.4

30.8

48.5

55.2

39.0

20.3

39.9

46.9

42.7

51.4

58.8

43.9

43.4

45.4

52.1

41.9

13.8

12.9

23.7

50.8

19.2

31.3

29.8

35.8

44.4

25.9

35.7

36.9

22.0

23.0

38.3

34.9

33.8

16.0

30.0

27.4

30.2

26.3

21.7

34.6

9.8

20.9

18.2

23.5

24.6

29.1

25.9

19.4

13.2

38.7

30.7

24.5

43.3

47.1

37.2

36.4

34.8

45.3

36.7

2.3

2.4

4.4

9.0

3.9

1.0

8.8

19.8

1.2

5.6

8.7

8.7

5.5

3.4

5.4

7.8

4.8

2.7

5.4

3.6

2.5

3.4

2.2

4.4

1.7

0.9

3.5

3.5

4.2

3.1

5.9

2.5

2.1

6.5

4.4

3.4

13.7

18.2

21.3

10.3

12.4

11.0

8.3

2.0

2.1

3.7

7.8

3.4

1.0

8.1

16.2

1.2

5.2

7.6

7.7

4.6

3.1

4.9

6.6

4.3

2.4

4.7

3.3

2.4

3.2

2.0

3.9

1.4

0.9

3.0

3.0

3.7

2.9

4.9

2.2

1.8

5.7

3.9

3.1

12.1

15.7

20.0

9.2

10.8

9.6

7.6

ROE (%)

FY18E FY19E

15.9 19.7

16.4 16.5

20.2 17.0

10.9 12.5

24.3 21.0

14.7 17.4

16.9 16.9

14.1

14.9

15.0

11.6

17.9

3.4

20.4

50.6

1.7

16.7

24.1

19.4

21.6

13.0

9.1

20.0

12.1

17.1

16.9

11.0

6.1

10.1

2.1

9.4

5.2

2.2

16.4

7.7

14.4

6.6

11.2

6.5

10.8

17.6

9.7

8.0

26.9

33.9

49.9

25.4

29.0

23.6

20.7

15.2

17.5

15.8

15.4

18.0

3.3

28.3

49.8

2.7

20.8

22.7

20.8

21.0

14.1

12.9

20.6

13.4

15.8

16.8

12.2

8.0

12.6

9.6

12.0

15.7

4.4

17.8

13.8

15.9

10.3

20.9

12.0

14.6

15.7

13.5

12.5

29.6

35.8

55.5

26.7

33.2

22.6

21.6

Company

Reco

L&T Fin Holdings Buy

LIC Hsg Fin

Neutral

MAS Financial

Buy

M&M Fin.

Buy

Muthoot Fin

Neutral

PNB Housing

Buy

Repco Home

Buy

Shriram

City

Buy

Union

Shriram Trans. Buy

Aggregate

Capital Goods

ABB

Sell

Bharat Elec.

Buy

BHEL

Sell

Blue Star

Neutral

CG Cons. Elec.

Buy

CG Power & Indu. Neutral

Cummins

Buy

GE T&D

Neutral

Havells

Buy

K E C Intl

Neutral

L&T

Buy

Siemens

Neutral

Solar Ind

Neutral

Thermax

Neutral

Va Tech Wab.

Buy

Voltas

Neutral

Aggregate

Cement

Ambuja Cem.

Neutral

ACC

Neutral

Birla Corp.

Buy

Dalmia Bharat

Buy

Grasim Inds.

Neutral

India Cem

Neutral

J K Cements

Buy

JK Lakshmi Ce

Buy

Ramco Cem

Buy

Orient Cem

Buy

Prism Cem

Buy

Not

Sagar Cements

Rated

Sanghi Inds.

Buy

Shree Cem

Buy

Ultratech

Buy

Aggregate

Consumer

Asian Paints

Neutral

Britannia

Buy

Colgate

Buy

Dabur

Buy

Emami

Buy

Godrej Cons.

Neutral

GSK Cons.

Neutral

1530

153

91

733

232

83

809

413

512

412

1338

1164

1034

1172

558

607

1240

210

80

780

305

90

1040

435

640

385

1650

1285

1100

1250

700

630

-19

38

-12

6

31

9

29

5

25

-7

23

10

6

7

25

4

19.8

7.1

3.0

16.6

5.1

1.1

23.2

10.6

11.4

16.1

49.0

19.8

24.4

28.6

33.2

18.0

30.1

7.9

2.9

24.6

6.5

1.9

31.3

11.6

13.9

18.7

58.1

30.4

29.6

34.7

34.8

20.2

35.0

8.4

4.0

31.2

7.7

3.0

37.1

13.2

17.2

24.1

69.3

34.6

36.7

39.0

38.4

23.0

252

1633

920

2680

1170

158

1027

435

750

159

123

981

290

1781

1234

3328

1242

148

1343

470

847

179

159

-

15

9

34

24

6

-6

31

8

13

12

30

6.0

8.3

10.9 29.5 38.4

47.4 62.2 76.9 31.3 31.1

8.9 42.4 50.6 -69.0 378.7

54.7 77.4 107.6 41.2 41.5

35.6 119.4 145.0 -47.5 235.5

3.7

7.6

10.4 -33.4 101.9

44.4 56.5 76.9 31.8 27.3

9.4 18.5 25.0 34.7 97.2

24.3 30.5 38.8 -10.8 25.3

3.3

5.5

10.3

LP

66.8

2.2

4.7

6.3 713.3 113.1

25.2

50.6

70.6

LP

101.0

53.5

3.0

53.0

74.3

18.8

24.8

17.9

19.2

30.5

15.1

14.1

118

157

16861 22424

4173 5131

33

33

23

5.8

8.9

12.0 102.0

423.0 435.8 724.2 10.0

89.0 136.2 178.4 -7.4

-7.7

21.6

84.2

24.0

7.6

24.0

20.9

161.0

25.6 30.8

105.1 131.5

28.3 33.8

9.0

10.5

31.3 37.3

24.1 27.5

183.8 215.7

2.7

14.3

12.9

4.5

-9.6

10.6

3.1

1110

4954

1052

329

1090

1090

6744

1270

5995

1365

415

1505

1065

6350

14

21

30

26

38

-2

-6

28 February 2018

11

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

(INR)

1343

266

344

312

7761

22336

285

886

9341

173

1066

3278

TP % Upside

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

(INR) Downside FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E

1585

18

23.1 27.9 32.9 17.6 20.7 18.1

278

4

9.0 10.2 11.4

6.6

13.7 12.4

380

10

8.1 10.7 13.3 -27.7 32.0 24.2

345

11

6.4

7.6

9.0

1.2

19.2 18.4

7882

2

140.0 159.1 192.3 13.2 13.6 20.8

27490

23

297.1 415.7 549.8 24.5 39.9 32.2

314

10

8.9 12.4 16.8 147.7 38.7 35.6

1050

18

17.7 20.8 24.1

5.7

17.8 15.5

9303

0

142.1 171.3 200.8 6.9

20.5 17.3

-

1380

3515

30

7

3.5

14.1

32.9

6.4

17.4

57.0

9.7

22.9

78.7

-2.0

62.0

22.9

9.0

83.8

23.9

73.4

18.5

52.1

31.2

38.1

17.3

Valuation snapshot

P/E (x)

FY18E FY19E

58.2 48.2

29.7 26.2

42.4 32.1

49.0 41.1

55.4 48.8

75.2 53.7

32.0 23.0

50.1 42.5

65.7 54.5

49.9

75.7

99.8

45.2

23.5

33.5

26.0

13.8

81.7

24.2

26.2

31.5

30.0

82.7

17.7

18.5

48.8

31.4

18.6

28.0

25.6

34.9

33.0

49.9

40.2

28.1

29.4

42.2

9.2

18.3

28.7

15.9

27.2

61.1

57.5

38.1

22.1

25.1

21.3

12.6

57.1

19.3

21.7

23.5

19.7

31.7

16.4

14.8

43.6

23.0

14.2

18.3

20.6

30.6

16.6

17.3

24.9

22.0

22.1

23.5

9.5

22.1

25.0

15.4

14.0

25.9

19.8

23.2

P/B (x)

FY18E FY19E

44.2 44.0

6.5

6.0

6.0

5.8

15.2 14.4

23.3 21.8

30.0 24.0

3.3

2.9

11.7 10.0

36.9 30.9

2.4

10.6

17.2

12.2

4.7

5.3

6.3

3.0

7.2

5.1

3.4

5.3

2.9

1.2

2.9

2.1

11.7

3.2

3.4

3.7

2.6

5.6

3.5

2.2

3.5

4.7

3.7

2.2

1.3

3.9

3.7

2.1

2.3

3.4

2.2

3.1

2.2

9.2

12.9

11.0

4.1

4.5

5.0

2.5

6.6

4.2

2.9

4.7

2.6

1.2

2.5

2.0

13.3

2.8

2.8

3.1

2.4

5.1

2.9

2.0

3.2

4.1

3.3

2.0

1.2

3.3

3.2

1.9

2.0

3.2

2.1

2.9

ROE (%)

FY18E FY19E

76.5 91.4

22.8 23.8

13.8 18.3

33.0 36.0

43.4 46.2

39.9 44.6

10.8 13.3

25.2 25.4

61.2 61.8

4.9

14.9

17.3

26.9

21.8

16.7

27.0

24.6

8.9

22.7

12.8

16.6

10.0

1.6

16.4

13.2

23.9

10.5

19.7

14.1

10.4

16.1

11.0

4.6

8.8

17.6

12.7

5.5

15.5

23.6

13.5

13.3

11.7

11.2

6.5

10.6

8.5

16.2

22.3

28.9

19.7

19.3

26.2

21.6

11.6

23.7

13.6

21.2

13.7

3.9

15.3

13.9

30.5

13.0

21.4

18.3

12.0

16.8

19.0

12.1

13.3

19.9

14.9

8.9

13.4

16.2

13.7

12.3

15.3

12.9

10.7

12.6

33.2

20.9

0.2

Company

HUL

ITC

Jyothy Lab

Marico

Nestle

Page Inds

Parag Milk

Pidilite Ind.

P&G Hygiene

Prabhat Dairy

United Brew

United Spirits

Aggregate

Healthcare

Alembic Phar

Alkem Lab

Ajanta Pharma

Aurobindo

Biocon

Cadila

Cipla

Divis Lab

Dr Reddy’s

Fortis Health

Glenmark

Granules

GSK Pharma

IPCA Labs

Jubilant Life

Laurus Labs

Lupin

Sanofi India

Shilpa Medicare

Strides Shasun

Sun Pharma

Torrent Pharma

Aggregate

Infrastructure

Ashoka Buildcon

IRB Infra

KNR

Constructions

Sadbhav

Engineering

Aggregate

Logistics

Allcargo Logistics

Concor

Gateway

Distriparks

Aggregate

Media

Dish TV

D B Corp

Den Net.

Reco

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Not

Rated

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

561

2235

1403

614

623

407

586

1035

2234

156

541

117

2395

672

890

532

826

4952

440

705

545

1348

555

2500

1840

820

600

500

600

1100

2575

185

550

175

2500

750

1110

631

940

5600

749

989

675

1400

-1

12

31

33

-4

23

2

6

15

19

2

49

4

12

25

19

14

13

70

40

24

4

23.9

66.8

54.0

44.5

7.6

16.8

22.4

32.9

74.4

1.9

30.6

6.3

49.1

21.4

47.8

19.0

32.3

141.7

13.3

14.1

13.6

48.0

25.3 30.1 10.8

5.9

19.0

88.9 109.9 -10.5 33.2 23.5

65.8 81.4 -5.8 21.9 23.6

48.7 53.6 13.2

9.4

10.1

10.9 19.8 -25.3 43.1 81.5

21.0 24.4 18.5 25.0 15.8

27.0 33.0 40.9 20.6 22.0

44.0 52.7 -17.7 33.9 19.7

113.2 145.0 2.4

52.2 28.0

4.9

8.4 -81.8 160.8 71.9

32.9 41.1 -22.2 7.7

24.7

7.9

11.0 -12.4 25.2 38.7

54.9 61.1 42.9 11.9 11.2

29.2 37.3 33.2 36.6 27.7

62.6 72.5 29.5 30.9 15.8

29.1 35.7

7.0

52.7 22.8

40.2 54.1 -43.0 24.6 34.6

161.8 186.9 9.8

14.2 15.5

26.5 33.4 -5.0 99.2 26.1

40.8 55.7 -56.2 188.8 36.7

21.9 27.9 -48.1 61.4 27.7

61.3 78.5 -12.9 27.6 28.0

-16.9 32.7 24.9

9.5

24.6

14.0

16.0

19.1

21.3

18.2

17.4

LP

24.8

41.2

27.1

79.9

-3.0

-17.3

14.9

101.0

-13.6

30.2

8.6

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

223

234

308

400

290

250

375

460

30

7

22

15

5.3

25.4

16.9

13.9

Buy

Neutral

Buy

180

1328

210

223

1469

237

24

11

13

8.9

41.9

6.2

12.9

51.2

10.6

14.9

58.2

13.1

-9.3

10.3

-9.0

5.3

44.2

22.3

71.3

28.5

LP

22.0

LP

15.8

13.5

23.4

14.6

109.9

20.1

5,545

20.2

31.7

33.9

29.8

Buy

Buy

Neutral

73

328

102

101

420

90

38

28

-12

-0.5

18.8

-2.9

1.6

23.0

0.1

3.4

27.6

4.0

PL

-7.6

Loss

NM 45.5 18.1

17.4 14.3

3.3

NM 1,437.2 2.3

13.0 -11.9

2.8 20.1

2.3

-6.3

28 February 2018

12

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

(INR)

720

38

238

92

169

383

1335

101

19

951

576

TP % Upside

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

(INR) Downside FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E

820

14

8.3 16.4 28.7 -27.7 98.0 75.7

47

25

-0.2 0.8

2.0

Loss

LP 161.9

305

28

25.9 28.8 32.4

0.2

11.3 12.6

117

27

11.8 12.1 12.7 59.3

2.6

4.9

215

27

9.9 12.5 15.2 -6.9 26.4 21.5

469

23

8.2 13.5 17.8 27.8 64.9 31.4

1760

32

22.1 37.3 51.5

7.8

68.7 37.9

130

29

2.5

5.8

7.9 100.6 137.5 36.4

27

43

-0.9 0.1

0.6

Loss

LP 411.6

1225

29

27.7 35.8 42.5 11.6 29.1 18.7

705

22

13.7 17.6 21.0

2.1

28.7 19.3

12.1 43.8 28.1

344

342

361

339

79

215

71

492

416

778

41

4

37

7

16

64

-16

23

22

16

19.5

21.6

-11.5

20.7

-0.5

13.7

-0.9

25.5

23.8

57.7

27.0

33.3

7.3

24.0

5.1

14.0

4.3

38.9

41.7

69.4

27.9

32.1

11.9

23.7

5.3

14.7

6.5

43.0

43.4

61.5

127.9

9.6

Loss

39.8

PL

37.6

Loss

165.2

57.4

51.9

66.7

-22.0

17.4

28.2

40.1

-14.7

-7.7

7.4

27.0

-15.0

-22.6

7.1

24.3

19.6

3.4

186.2

44.4

38.8

48.6

18.1

3.1

21.2

2.6

0.8

18.5

31.5

12.9

17.4

14.4

38.6

54.6

LP

15.9

LP

2.2

LP

52.3

74.8

20.4

55.3

9.2

22.0

59.6

4.1

-9.4

-9.4

17.2

-3.6

-7.7

56.7

32.5

13.4

10.3

11.8

29.6

26.6

27.0

27.2

12.1

3.8

10.9

9.7

10.5

13.7

24.6

14.8

16.9

22.8

3.0

-3.8

63.4

-1.0

2.6

4.7

50.2

10.7

4.2

-11.5

1.7

11.3

4.6

28.7

8.3

15.8

21.1

13.2

1.2

5.0

3.3

4.1

17.9

11.6

10.6

31.3

27.6

24.1

26.0

13.2

7.5

13.4

11.2

29.1

15.2

17.2

8.3

16.2

14.3

Valuation snapshot

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E

87.1 44.0

3.8

3.6

NM 49.3

2.7

2.5

9.2

8.3

1.3

1.1

7.9

7.6

0.9

0.8

17.0 13.5

2.7

2.3

46.6 28.3

3.7

3.2

60.3 35.8

5.9

5.1

41.1 17.3

4.2

2.7

NM 149.2 3.6

3.5

34.3 26.5

8.6

7.8

42.1 32.8

7.1

6.1

38.5 26.8

5.4

4.7

12.5

15.3

NM

15.4

NM

9.6

NM

15.6

14.3

11.6

15.6

11.3

17.3

43.2

16.6

11.3

9.8

32.4

18.7

9.7

13.4

10.7

17.6

15.7

13.1

67.2

21.9

65.5

51.6

17.4

15.4

20.9

17.8

17.8

21.6

24.5

19.9

18.7

19.7

9.1

9.9

36.4

13.3

13.3

9.4

19.5

10.3

8.2

9.7

10.1

10.4

14.2

27.0

15.9

12.4

10.8

27.6

19.4

10.5

8.6

8.1

15.6

14.3

11.7

51.8

17.3

51.6

40.6

15.5

14.8

18.8

16.2

16.1

19.0

19.7

17.4

16.0

16.0

1.7

6.7

0.8

2.8

1.4

1.7

1.0

3.5

2.2

1.7

1.9

2.4

1.9

6.5

2.3

2.7

1.6

6.2

5.0

1.8

0.9

1.1

3.9

1.9

1.7

15.1

3.5

13.9

9.9

3.0

3.7

5.2

4.1

2.4

6.2

5.1

3.4

3.0

3.3

1.4

4.7

0.8

2.4

1.3

1.5

0.9

2.7

1.9

1.5

1.7

2.1

1.7

5.5

2.1

2.4

1.5

5.3

4.5

1.6

0.9

1.0

3.3

1.7

1.5

15.4

3.0

12.9

9.0

2.8

3.4

4.6

3.6

2.1

5.0

4.4

3.1

2.7

3.2

ROE (%)

FY18E FY19E

4.5

8.4

-1.2

5.2

15.1 14.6

11.5 10.6

15.3 18.4

8.2 12.2

10.2 15.3

11.6 18.9

-15.8 2.4

26.1 30.9

18.2 20.0

14.0 17.4

14.0

35.3

-3.6

20.2

-0.9

18.4

-1.0

25.2

15.1

15.9

12.3

22.7

11.3

16.1

14.6

24.9

17.3

20.8

28.0

20.2

7.1

10.0

23.9

12.8

12.9

22.5

16.9

23.4

19.2

17.4

25.1

26.9

24.3

14.3

32.1

19.9

15.3

16.1

17.8

16.8

55.7

2.3

19.5

9.8

17.3

4.8

29.7

25.4

16.3

16.8

21.8

12.8

22.0

13.6

20.2

14.4

20.8

24.4

16.2

10.5

12.8

22.9

12.7

13.2

29.8

18.4

25.9

22.2

17.8

23.9

25.8

23.1

13.8

29.0

24.0

18.7

17.6

21.0

Company

Ent.Network

Hathway Cable

Hind. Media

HT Media

Jagran Prak.

Music Broadcast

PVR

Prime Focus

Siti Net.

Sun TV

Zee Ent.

Aggregate

Metals

Hindalco

Hind. Zinc

JSPL

JSW Steel

Nalco

NMDC

SAIL

Rain Industries

Vedanta

Tata Steel

Aggregate

Oil & Gas

BPCL

GAIL

Gujarat Gas

Gujarat St. Pet.

HPCL

IOC

IGL

Mahanagar Gas

MRPL

Oil India

ONGC

PLNG

Reliance Ind.

Aggregate

Retail

Jubilant Food

PC Jeweller

Titan Co.

Aggregate

Technology

Cyient

HCL Tech.

Hexaware

Infosys

KPIT Tech

L&T Infotech

Mindtree

Mphasis

NIIT Tech

Persistent Sys

Reco

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Sell

Buy

Buy

Neutral

245

329

264

318

68

131

84

399

340

672

Buy

Sell

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

426

458

889

204

392

378

305

1047

122

350

188

249

950

549

388

1014

188

530

513

416

1228

114

425

230

318

1111

29

-15

14

-8

35

36

36

17

-7

21

22

28

17

37.7

26.5

20.6

12.3

34.7

38.7

9.4

55.9

12.6

26.1

17.6

14.1

60.4

41.2

32.3

32.9

12.8

31.5

35.0

11.1

53.9

11.6

40.9

23.3

16.0

66.6

45.8

33.8

42.3

13.9

36.4

42.4

12.5

54.6

12.2

42.2

24.3

18.9

74.3

Neutral

Buy

Buy

2038

338

822

2185

685

990

7

103

21

30.3

15.4

12.5

39.3

19.5

15.9

51.6

24.9

19.8

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

630

951

346

1148

214

1418

802

876

833

849

675

950

340

1250

219

1400

725

800

800

900

7

0

-2

9

3

-1

-10

-9

-4

6

36.2

61.7

16.6

64.4

12.0

65.7

32.7

43.9

44.6

43.1

40.6

64.1

18.4

70.7

13.3

74.7

40.8

50.4

52.2

53.0

45.9

68.9

20.9

78.6

17.2

86.1

47.8

54.6

60.6

60.5

28 February 2018

13

Click excel icon

for detailed

valuation guide

CMP

(INR)

1040

3043

611

292

883

TP % Upside

EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. YoY (%)

(INR) Downside FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E

1236

19

36.8 43.6 51.5 30.8 18.4 18.2

2700

-11

130.6 147.3 161.0 -2.1 12.8

9.3

700

15

39.2 40.9 47.7 26.8

4.5

16.6

300

3

17.9 18.5 21.2

6.0

3.2

14.7

1100

25

54.2 64.1 85.2

4.0

18.3 33.1

4.2

5.1

11.1

680

380

110

750

58

10

30

16

3.5

3.9

14.0 16.2

-10.7 -11.6

2.4 11.6

7.2

17.8

-9.7

23.6

Valuation snapshot

P/E (x)

P/B (x)

FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E

28.3 23.9

9.1

7.3

23.3 20.7

7.3

6.3

15.6 14.9

3.1

2.7

16.3 15.8

2.9

2.4

16.3 13.8

2.4

2.1

19.3 18.4

4.8

4.2

2.5

4.3

1.4

13.2

2.5

7.5

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.3

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.9

19.2

6.3

1.6

19.5

4.7

6.0

8.2

7.6

2.0

7.1

3.6

3.5

3.0

7.4

4.1

2.9

5.6

6.3

2.4

3.1

4.5

7.8

1.2

8.7

12.6

ROE (%)

FY18E FY19E

36.0 33.8

30.4 32.9

20.6 19.5

17.2 16.7

15.7 16.4

25.0 23.1

Company

Tata Elxsi

TCS

Tech Mah

Wipro

Zensar Tech

Aggregate

Telecom

Bharti Airtel

Bharti Infratel

Idea Cellular

Tata Comm

Aggregate

Utiltites

Coal India

CESC

JSW Energy

NHPC

NTPC

Power Grid

Tata Power

Aggregate

Others

Arvind

Avenue

Supermarts

Bata India

BSE

Castrol India

Coromandel Intl

Delta Corp

Eveready Inds.

Interglobe

Indo Count

Info Edge

Kaveri Seed

Manpasand

MCX

Monsanto

Navneet

Education

Oberoi Realty

Quess Corp

PI Inds.

Piramal Enterp.

SRF

S H Kelkar

Team Lease Serv.

Trident

TTK Prestige

V-Guard

Reco

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Buy

Buy

431

345

84

648

-68.7 12.2 84.4 123.8 110.4

-6.1 16.5

9.7

24.7 21.2

Loss Loss Loss NM

NM

-75.8 383.2 102.9 269.7 55.8

-

PL

Loss

LP -453.1

1,606.5

16.2

8.4

10.7

3.1

9.5

4.6

8.6

10.3

34.1

33.4

16.6

8.6

4.3

4.5

34.0

24.1

44.4

17.7

27.1

17.0

35.6

18.5

18.4

17.6

-3.5

27.3

16.4

27.1

32.1

17.7

47.9

25.8

15.4

12.1

16.8

11.4

19.0

11.4

12.9

11.7

17.6

13.8

36.6

107.9

45.4

19.2

28.8

22.5

60.3

32.8

20.8

13.4

53.8

14.8

41.8

36.7

24.1

18.2

38.7

45.1

30.1

31.5

23.0

35.3

47.9

10.1

50.7

51.8

11.6

10.6

22.5

8.9

11.2

9.7

11.8

10.9

29.6

78.5

37.5

17.7

30.6

18.7

42.8

23.0

17.5

10.2

47.8

12.5

28.4

26.0

20.0

14.1

10.9

30.5

25.0

22.5

18.5

26.8

34.9

7.8

39.7

39.0

2.5

2.1

2.3

4.4 17.0 20.4

1.7 -18.1 -20.9

10.7 4.6 21.2

2.6

7.1

1.1

1.2

0.9

1.2

1.6

1.6

1.9

2.7

16.4

5.5

1.3

18.4

4.1

5.4

6.7

7.1

1.6

6.4

3.2

3.2

2.8

6.4

3.5

2.4

4.5

5.2

2.1

2.8

4.1

6.4

1.1

7.8

10.1

-0.6

44.7

10.6

6.7

8.5

10.5

16.5

10.8

14.8

8.0

19.0

14.6

8.5

69.1

22.5

12.6

27.1

46.8

16.0

13.7

23.4

7.4

7.9

32.5

23.9

7.8

21.7

22.6

8.9

14.1

13.4

17.7

12.6

18.0

26.9

-0.2

60.8

10.4

5.5

10.8

11.3

17.5

14.5

17.3

9.4

22.6

15.7

7.4

61.8

23.4

13.2

32.0

42.1

17.4

14.0

27.1

11.8

11.0

34.5

26.9

24.2

21.0

22.9

10.2

15.9

16.0

20.1

14.5

20.7

28.8

Buy

Buy

Sell

Buy

Buy

Buy

Sell

311

1008

81

28

166

198

86

401

1408

61

37

210

282

74

29

40

-25

34

27

42

-14

18.5

88.8

4.3

2.4

12.9

16.9

4.9

26.8

95.2

3.6

3.1

14.8

20.4

7.3

31.1 23.8 44.9

103.2 71.1

7.3

4.0

11.4 -15.4

3.2 -18.1 28.5

16.2

7.5

15.1

21.3 20.7 20.9

7.9

-5.8 49.0

14.5 26.3

18.8

23.0

-8.4

63.6

23.8

37.4

21.0

8.7

-5.9

20.4

40.7

42.5

19.3

32.0

12.5

18.5

47.2

41.1

20.6

28.4

Neutral

Sell

Sell

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

416

1354

722

803

201

543

357

385

1334

101

1256

506

376

765

2529

138

527

997

883

2616

1905

279

2076

72

6994

232

402

920

578

950

242

523

382

458

1307

117

1550

664

467

1100

3293

194

608

1300

988

3500

2040

343

2700

114

5281

167

-3

-32

-20

18

20

-4

7

19

-2

16

23

31

24

44

30

41

15

30

12

34

7

23

30

58

-24

-28

11.3

12.6

15.9

41.8

7.0

24.1

5.9

11.7

64.0

7.5

23.4

34.2

9.0

20.8

105.0

7.6

13.6

22.1

29.3

83.1

82.9

7.9

43.3

7.2

137.8

4.5

14.1

17.2

19.3 22.4 17.8

45.5 49.4

2.0

6.6

6.9

2.9

29.0 30.3 45.1

8.3

11.2 93.7

16.7 20.8 -8.7

76.4 110.4 48.2

9.9

11.7 -42.2

26.3 33.4 49.0

40.6 47.4 79.5

13.2 17.9 41.6

29.4 34.9 -16.0

126.6 149.9 21.9

9.7

11.4

3.6

48.2 46.5 22.3 253.5

32.7 41.6 124.2 47.7

35.4 41.2 -12.2 20.6

116.4 147.9 14.5 40.0

103.0 136.0 -3.5 24.2

10.4 12.2

9.1

31.6

59.6 88.1 11.6 37.5

9.2

11.6

8.4

28.1

176.1 203.2 4.4

27.8

6.0

6.7

25.3 32.9

28 February 2018

14