Power Grid
BSE SENSEX
33,597
S&P CNX
10,325
5 April 2018
Update | Sector: Utilities
CMP: INR197
TP: INR287(+45%)
Buy
Expect strong double-digit IRRs in TBCB projects
A strong business and attractive valuations keep us optimistic
Analysis suggests strong double-digit IRRs in TBCB projects
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val ( INRm)
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2018E 2019E 2020E
298.2
262.7
88.6
16.9
21.3
108.5
16.6
8.2
11.4
1.8
350.3 388.5
310.6 344.6
108.2 114.7
20.7
22.1
17.7
8.8
9.4
1.6
21.9
6.0
16.5
8.8
8.9
1.4
PWGR IN
5,232
226 / 189
0/-10/-11
1,014.9
15.3
1285.0
43.1
We analyzed the tariff-based competitive bidding (TBCB) projects from the annual
reports of Power Grid’s (PWGR) subsidiaries. In our view, PWGR will generate more
than 14% equity IRR (debt/equity ratio of 80/20) on its TBCB projects. The equity
IRR on the three projects that are fully commissioned is ~24-38%. PWGR enjoys a
competitive edge due to its (a) low cost of borrowed funds, (b) dominant position
with suppliers and (c) vast geographical spread, which should continue driving
healthy returns.
International experience: Even developed countries need to keep investing
Transmission order inflows are expected to be low over the next few years, but the
long-term growth potential is huge. Experience from China and the US suggests
that the transmission infrastructure continues increasing in tandem with
generation (demand) growth. Renewable generation capacities, flexibility and
redundancy requirements also aid transmission investment, as seen in the US/UK
over the past few years. India, with just one third of the world’s per capita
electricity consumption, has huge growth potential. Separation of carriage and
content, as proposed in the draft Electricity Act, will provide another growth
stream to PWGR, in our view.
124.8 141.7
Intra-state to aid growth; Consultancy and Telecom to grow strongly
Intra-state transmission opportunity is ~1.5-2x the size of inter-state transmission
in India. However, states have been reluctant to offer intra-state projects on TBCB
due to healthy regulated returns. Unlike their DISCOMs, state TRANSCOs are not
cash starved. PWGR expects a pick-up in TBCB activity from states like Jharkhand,
UP, Telangana and Tamil Nadu. Its JV proposal with UP is also in the final stages.
Consultancy and Telecom businesses are expected to grow at a healthy 15-20%
over the next few years. Success in the telecom towers business (pilot running
successfully over the past year) will support growth in Telecom.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Dec-17 Sep-17 Dec-16
56.9
12.0
24.4
6.7
57.9
9.7
25.7
6.6
57.9
8.3
26.8
7.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Power Grid Corpn
Sensex - Rebased
245
230
215
200
185
Strong business and attractive valuations; Re-iterate Buy
PWGR has ~INR1t of orders pending execution, providing strong visibility of EPS
CAGR of ~12% over FY18-22. The earnings estimate factors in a 150bp cut in the
regulated RoE (to 14%) in the next tariff regulations. However, with bond yield
rising over the last few months, the extent of such cut could be lower, in our view.
At CMP, the stock is trading attractively at 1.4x FY20E P/BV for an RoE of ~16% and
a CoE of ~10-11%, not appreciating any future growth potential. If we were to
assume no growth after FY20, which means PAT is available for dividend
distribution, the stock is trading at an attractive dividend yield of ~11% for an
assured return model and revenues backed by state-guarantees (g-sec yield is ~7 to
8%). We re-iterate our
Buy
rating with a DCF-based target price of INR287/share.
Sanjay Jain – Research analyst
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523
Dhruv Muchhal – Research analyst
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.