Tata Motors
BSE SENSEX
34,101
S&P CNX
10,459
12 April 2018
Update
| Sector:
Automobiles
CMP: INR358
TP: INR528(+47%)
Buy
JLR’s Mar-2018 wholesales in line at 76.2k units
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
Land Rover volumes increase 7.9% YoY; Jaguar volumes up 2.7% YoY
TTMT IN
3,395.9
487 / 325
2/-21/-39
1613.2
25.0
3529.0
63.6
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2018E 2019E 2020E
Net Sales
2,925 3,336 3,586
EBITDA
367.1 524.1 556.4
NP
86.7 192.3 199.4
Adj. EPS (INR)
25.5
56.6
58.7
EPS Gr. (%)
28.8 121.8
3.7
BV/Sh. (INR)
206.6 264.5 324.5
RoE (%)
13.5
24.0
19.9
RoCE (%)
7.8
12.8
11.1
P/E (x)
13.9
6.3
6.1
P/BV (x)
1.7
1.3
1.1
Shareholding pattern (%)
Dec-17 Sep-17 Dec-16
As On
Promoter
36.4
36.4
34.7
DII
17.1
15.3
14.8
FII
21.4
22.6
24.2
Others
25.1
25.8
26.2
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Tata Motors
Sensex - Rebased
580
510
440
370
300
JLR’s wholesale volumes grew 6.4% YoY (+33.9% MoM) to 76.2k units
(including China JV’s 7,126 units) in March 2018. Jaguar volumes increased
2.7% YoY to 21.04k units (est. of 21.2k units), while Land Rover (LR) volumes
rose 7.9% YoY to 55.2k units (est. of 55.9k units).
For FY18, JLR wholesales grew 5.4% YoY to 633.5k units, as LR sales rose 8.3%
to 457.3k units, while Jaguar sales declined 1.4% to 176.2k units.
JLR’s retail volumes declined 7.8% YoY (-109.8% MoM) to 83.7k units in March
2018. LR sales fell 5.7% YoY to 59.4k units, while Jaguar sales were down by
12.7% YoY to 24.3k units.
XF, F-Pace and XE volumes fell 29.6%, 19.4% and 45.9% YoY, respectively.
Retails of E-Pace came in at 5.1k units (1.9k units in Feb-18).
LR’s retail volumes declined by 5.7% YoY in the month, as RR Sport and RR
Evoque volumes fell 10% and 31.7%, respectively, while Discovery volumes
rose 3.5% YoY. RR Velar clocked in volumes of 8.9k units.
Region-wise, China volumes grew 10.9% YoY to 13.6k units in March. Growth in
China is reflecting the introduction of the long wheelbase Jaguar XFL and XE.
Retails in the UK and Europe markets declined 26% and 16%, respectively.
Mr Felix Brautigam, Jaguar Land Rover Chief Commercial Officer said, “Weaker
market conditions in the UK and Europe, driven by lack of consumer
confidence and lower demand for diesels, are impacting our growth. But
even against this backdrop it’s good to see that we have closed our financial
year with record retail sales.”
The stock trades at 6.3x/6.1x FY19E/20E consolidated EPS. Maintain
Buy
with a
target price of INR528 (Mar-20 SOTP-based).
Jinesh Gandhi - Research analyst
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Research analyst: Deep Shah
(Deep.S@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 61291533/
Suneeta Kamath
(Suneeta.Kamath@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 61291534
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Tata Motors
TATA MOTORS: JLR [Wholesales]
YoY
Company Sales
JLR
Jaguar
Land rover
Mar-18
76,221
21,048
55,173
Mar-17
71,609
20,492
51,117
YoY (%)
chg
6.4
2.7
7.9
MoM
MoM (%)
Feb-18
chg
56,905
33.9
16,245
29.6
40,660
35.7
FY18
633,510
176,246
457,264
FY17
600,731
178,676
422,055
(%) chg
5.5
-1.4
8.3
FY18
Gr. (%)
estimate
633,510
5.6
176,246
-1.3
457,264
8.5
FY18 Monthly
Run rate
52,793
14,687
38,105
TATA MOTORS : JLR [Retails]
YoY
Company Sales
JLR
Jaguar
Land rover
Region-wise Retail Sales
Region
UK
US
Europe
China
RoW
Total JLR
Brand-wise Retail Sales
Brands
XF
XJ
F-Pace
E-Pace
XE
Others (incl. F-type)
Total Jaguar
Defender
Discovery
Freelander/Dis. Sport
Range Rover (incl. new)
RR Evoque
RR Sport (incl. new model)
RR Velar
Total Land Rover
Mar-18
83,732
24,300
59,432
Mar-17
90,838
27,820
63,018
YoY (%)
chg
-7.8
-12.7
-5.7
MoM
MoM (%)
Feb-18
chg
39,911
109.8
11,565
110.1
28,346
109.7
FY18
614,309
174,560
439,749
FY17
6,04,017
1,72,857
4,31,160
(%) chg
1.7
1.0
2.0
Mar-18
23,503
19,474
17,234
13,596
12,925
86,732
Mar-17
31,778
15,033
20,516
12,261
11,250
90,838
YoY %
-26.0
29.5
-16.0
10.9
14.9
-4.5
Feb-18
2,307
9,942
11,113
8,798
7,751
39,911
MoM %
918.8
95.9
55.1
54.5
66.8
117.3
FY18
1,08,759
1,29,319
1,33,592
1,50,116
92,523
6,14,309
FY17
1,24,755
1,23,536
1,41,043
1,25,207
89,477
6,04,018
YoY %
-12.8
4.7
-5.3
19.9
3.4
1.7
Mar-18
4,423
788
8,693
5,117
4,076
1,203
24,300
0
5,423
14,671
7,010
12,259
11,106
8,963
59,432
Mar-17
6,282
1,437
10,779
0
7,533
1,789
27,820
92
5,240
19,161
8,231
17,959
12,335
0
63,018
YoY %
-29.6
-45.2
-19.4
-45.9
-32.8
-12.7
Feb-18
2,474
520
4,192
1,922
1,912
545
11,565
3
2,855
6,589
3,839
5,174
4,607
5,279
28,346
MoM %
78.8
51.5
107.4
113.2
120.7
110.1
0.0
89.9
122.7
82.6
136.9
141.1
69.8
109.7
FY18
40,907
9,136
72,719
9,091
32,825
9,882
1,74,560
5
46,472
1,19,105
53,509
98,501
76,121
46,036
4,39,749
FY17
37,157
11,489
67,964
1
45,469
10,777
1,72,857
1,380
42,023
1,26,158
57,480
1,14,373
89,746
0
4,31,160
YoY %
10.1
-20.5
7.0
-27.8
-8.3
1.0
-99.6
10.6
-5.6
-6.9
-13.9
-15.2
2.0
3.5
-23.4
-14.8
-31.7
-10.0
-5.7
12 April 2018
2

Tata Motors
Financials and valuations
Income Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Total Income
Change (%)
Expenditure
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
EBIT
Product Dev. Exp.
Interest
Other Income
EO Exp/(Inc)
Forex Gain/ (Loss)
PBT
Tax
Effective Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
% of Net Sales
Minority Interest
Share of profit of associate
Net Profit
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
2013
1,888,176
14.0
1,622,487
265,689
14.1
75,693
189,996
20,216
35,533
8,115
876
-5,151
136,335
37,710
27.7
98,625
-27.3
5.2
-837
1,138
98,926
99,560
-16.3
2014
2,328,337
23.3
1,954,308
374,029
16.1
110,782
263,248
25,652
47,338
8,286
2,777
-7,077
188,690
47,648
25.3
141,042
43.0
6.1
-595
-537
139,910
141,986
42.6
2015
2,631,590
13.0
2,210,452
421,138
16.0
133,886
287,252
28,752
48,615
8,987
930
-917
217,026
76,429
35.2
140,597
-0.3
5.3
-868
134
139,863
140,465
-1.1
2016
2,730,456
3.8
2,312,693
417,763
15.3
167,108
250,655
34,688
48,891
8,854
18,504
-16,169
141,258
30,251
21.4
111,007
-21.0
4.1
-989
5,775
115,793
130,334
-7.2
2017
2,696,925
-1.2
2,327,802
369,124
13.7
179,050
190,074
34,136
42,380
7,545
-11,146
-39,101
93,148
32,512
34.9
60,636
-45.4
2.2
-1,022
14,930
74,544
67,288
-48.4
2018E
2,925,410
8.5
2,558,349
367,061
12.5
213,042
154,019
34,452
47,532
7,053
-44,449
22,597
146,135
47,295
32.4
98,840
63.0
3.4
-1,087
19,006
116,760
86,696
28.8
2019E
3,336,346
14.0
2,812,215
524,131
15.7
249,207
274,924
33,768
48,210
7,553
0
-22,249
178,250
54,147
30.4
124,103
25.6
3.7
-1,208
24,931
147,825
192,323
121.8
2020E
3,585,729
7.5
3,029,370
556,359
15.5
293,408
262,951
33,230
49,131
7,987
0
-22,694
165,882
49,541
29.9
116,342
-6.3
3.2
-1,326
39,001
154,017
199,404
3.7
(INR m)
Balance Sheet (Cons.)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
2013
6,381
369,992
376,373
557,223
-24,094
913,206
1,205,654
570,818
634,836
60,000
41,024
90,577
829,538
209,690
109,427
211,127
280,739
742,769
447,801
134,250
86,769
913,206
2014
6,438
649,597
656,035
549,545
-7,748
1,202,038
1,329,282
688,154
641,128
332,626
49,788
106,867
1,046,103
272,709
105,742
297,118
273,241
974,474
573,157
199,707
71,629
1,202,038
2015
6,438
556,181
562,619
692,115
-13,900
1,245,167
1,582,066
744,241
837,825
286,401
46,970
153,367
1,034,685
292,723
125,792
321,158
256,948
1,114,081
574,073
328,305
-79,396
1,245,167
2016
6,792
782,732
789,524
619,612
44,748
1,458,212
1,976,068
911,348
1,064,720
259,189
7,598
237,670
1,102,234
326,557
135,709
304,604
254,033
1,213,200
615,618
460,226
-110,965
1,458,212
2017
6,792
573,827
580,619
744,891
11,740
1,341,781
2,043,106
1,090,398
952,708
336,988
6,733
203,379
1,237,735
350,853
140,756
360,779
291,474
1,395,762
625,326
622,314
-158,027
1,341,782
2018E
6,792
694,826
701,618
726,807
11,740
1,445,784
2,479,797
1,303,440
1,176,357
250,000
6,733
222,385
1,188,895
380,704
160,296
237,547
306,474
1,398,586
657,215
581,075
-209,691
1,445,784
2019E
6,792
891,390
898,181
708,724
11,740
1,625,471
2,864,742
1,552,646
1,312,095
250,000
6,733
247,316
1,271,835
434,182
182,813
219,492
321,474
1,462,508
731,254
548,440
-190,673
1,625,471
2020E
6,792
1,095,033
1,101,825
690,640
11,740
1,812,358
3,258,764
1,846,055
1,412,709
250,000
6,733
286,317
1,379,305
466,636
196,478
255,843
336,474
1,522,707
785,913
540,315
-143,402
1,812,358
(INR m)
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Investments
Curr.Assets
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash & Bank Bal.
Loans & Advances
Current Liab. & Prov.
Sundry Creditors
Other Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
12 April 2018
3

Tata Motors
Financials and valuations
Ratios (Con.)
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
EPS Fully Diluted
Normalized EPS ^
EPS Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value (Rs/Share)
DPS
Payout (Incl. Div. Tax) %
Valuation (x)
Consolidated P/E
Normalized P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2013
31.2
31.2
11.4
-16.8
54.9
118.0
2.0
6.5
2014
44.1
44.1
17.8
41.3
78.5
203.8
2.0
4.6
2015
43.6
43.6
14.4
-1.1
85.2
174.8
0.0
0.0
2016
38.4
38.4
7.2
-12.0
87.6
232.5
0.0
0.0
9.3
49.6
3.1
0.5
1.5
0.0
28.3
17.0
30.6
21
41
87
2.1
1.5
27.5
19.2
38.7
17
43
90
1.9
0.8
23.1
15.7
39.2
17
41
80
2.1
1.2
19.3
15.1
34.5
18
44
82
1.9
0.8
2017
19.8
19.8
-10.6
-48.4
72.5
171.0
0.0
0.0
17.9
-33.5
3.8
0.5
2.1
0.0
9.8
9.2
22.6
19
47
85
2.0
1.3
2018E
25.5
25.5
-8.6
28.8
88.3
206.6
0.3
1.3
13.9
-41.5
4.0
0.5
1.7
0.1
13.5
7.8
17.7
20
48
82
2.0
1.0
2019E
56.6
56.6
17.2
121.8
130.0
264.5
0.3
0.6
6.3
20.7
2.8
0.4
1.3
0.1
24.0
12.8
23.3
20
48
80
2.1
0.8
2020E
58.7
58.7
9.7
3.7
145.1
324.5
0.3
0.6
6.1
36.5
2.4
0.4
1.1
0.1
19.9
11.1
19.1
20
48
80
2.0
0.6
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Int/Div. Received
Depreciation
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
Other Items
CF from Op Activity
Extra-ordinary Items
CF after EO Items
(Inc)/Dec in FA+CWIP
(Pur)/Sale of Invest.
CF from Inv Activity
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
CF from Fin Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Beginning Bal.
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
2013
98,926
8,062
75,648
-22,231
-680
64,617
224,343
4,342
228,684
-187,203
-54,984
-242,188
7
45,082
-46,560
-15,087
-16,558
-30,061
153,550
123,488
2014
139,910
6,933
110,736
-43,083
57,744
88,983
361,223
7,221
368,444
-269,252
-36,611
-305,863
1
30,092
-61,706
-7,220
-38,832
23,749
142,531
166,280
2015
139,863
7,777
133,864
-41,940
-36,718
136,570
339,415
20,191
359,606
-315,396
-37,570
-352,966
0
122,288
-63,070
-7,204
52,014
58,655
152,629
211,283
2016
110,238
8,258
170,142
-19,939
25,515
96,855
391,069
8,857
399,925
-326,232
-68,134
-394,366
74,332
-47,483
-57,039
-1,739
-31,930
-26,371
219,875
193,505
2017
74,544
7,545
179,050
-65,520
103,236
1,068
299,923
11,146
311,069
-144,837
34,291
-110,546
-283,449
125,280
-42,380
0
-200,550
-27
360,779
360,752
2018E
116,760
7,053
213,042
-47,295
-71,567
1,087
219,079
44,449
263,528
-349,703
-19,006
-368,709
5,344
-18,084
-47,532
-1,104
-61,375
-166,556
237,547
70,991
2019E
192,323
7,553
249,207
-54,147
-37,074
1,208
359,069
0
359,069
-384,945
-24,931
-409,875
5,344
-18,084
-48,210
-1,104
-62,053
-112,860
219,492
106,632
2020E
199,404
7,987
293,408
-49,541
-10,920
1,326
441,665
0
441,665
-394,022
-39,001
-433,024
5,344
-18,084
-49,131
-1,104
-62,975
-54,333
255,843
201,510
12 April 2018
4

Tata Motors
NOTES
12 April 2018
5

Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
Tata Motors
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures:
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the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
MOSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act
as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial
instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.;
however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even though there
might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
Research Analyst may have served as director/officer, etc. in the subject company in the last 12 month period. MOSL and/or its associates may have
received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.
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Analyst ownership of the stock
Tata Motors
No
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