Avenue Supermarts
BSE SENSEX
34,865
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
10,513
DMART IN
624
832 / 11.3
1682 / 1063
-5/-13/1
1205
18.8
15 October 2018
2QFY19 Results Update | Sector: Retail
CMP: INR1,333
TP: INR1,124 (-16%)
Sell
Margin cap to restrict pace of earnings growth
Competitive pricing by peers led to shrinking gross margin
EBIDTA and PAT growth lags revenue growth on shrinking gross margin:
Avenue Supermarts (DMart) revenue increased 39% YoY to INR48.7b (estimated
INR44.6b) in 2QFY19. EBITDA/PAT; however, grew 23%/18% YoY to
INR3.9b/INR2.3b (estimated INR4.4b/INR2.6b) lagging much below revenue
growth. This is primarily due to 180bp decline in gross margin to 14.3%. In the
recent analyst meet, management had highlighted that the high EBITDA margin
may not be sustainable as the company plans to prioritize price competitiveness
v/s margin improvements.
Added three new stores in 2QFY19; looking to add 25-30 stores annually:
In the
recent analyst meet, the company reiterated its strategy to accelerate store
addition; it also plans to explore the leasing model. Although, the company does
not have a set target, it plans to add 25-30 stores annually. In 2QFY19, DMart
added three new stores (five stores in 1HFY19), taking its total store count to
160. The company had added 24 stores in FY18, of which 14 were in 4Q. Total
store count rose from 131 in FY17 to 155 in FY18, and at a 16% CAGR over FY13-
18. In order to reach 25 stores, DMart needs to add 20 stores in 2HFY19 against
the five stores in 1HFY19.
Valuations and view:
DMart has consistently outperformed its peers, with
strong 14% same store sales growth (SSSG) and 9% EBITDA margin (as at FY18).
We expect the strong momentum to continue, with a robust revenue/EBITDA
CAGR (FY18-21) of 27%/29%, driven by 19% SSSG and healthy store additions
(~25) annually. However, risk of competitive pricing by peers has led to gross
margin shrinking, and has contained EBITDA margin. We have yet broadly
maintained EBITDA/PAT estimates for FY19/20E as revision in revenue growth is
offset by lower EBITDA margin. We maintain our 50x P/E on FY20E (on the back
of strong competitive moat) to arrive at a TP of INR1,124 (prior: INR1,117). At
CMP, the stock is expensively valued at 63x/48x FY20/21E P/E. At such rich
valuations, we believe there is limited room for re-rating. Maintain
Sell.
FY18
FY19E
FY18 FY19E
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3QE
4QE
35,083 40,939 38,100 45,594 48,725 53,220 49,600 150,332 197,139
26.3
22.6
22.5
26.7
38.9
30.0
30.2
26.4
31.1
31,904 36,721 35,155 41,367 44,829 48,271 45,028 136,804 179,495
3,179 4,217 2,945 4,227 3,896 4,950 4,571 13,528 17,644
9.1
10.3
7.7
9.3
8.0
9.3
9.2
9.0
9.0
351
393
465
403
444
480
526 1,590 1,853
109
110
132
100
101
50
2
594
253
212
137
149
143
139
140
146
726
567
2,930 3,851 2,497 3,866 3,491 4,560 4,189 12,070 16,105
1,020 1,334
826 1,360 1,233 1,596 1,335 4,158 5,524
34.8
34.6
33.1
35.2
35.3
35.0
31.9
34.4
34.3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-185
0
1,910 2,518 1,671 2,506 2,257 2,964 2,853 8,097 10,581
1,910 2,518 1,671 2,506 2,257 2,964 2,853 8,097 10,581
65.2
65.8
72.9
43.4
18.2
17.7
70.8
69.1
30.7
5.4
6.1
4.4
5.5
4.6
5.6
5.8
5.4
5.4
(INR Million)
FY19E
Var
2QE
(%)
44,555
9
27.0
40,189
12
4,366
-11
9.8
-180
440
1
50
102
140
-1
4,016
-13
1,406
-12
35.0
33
0
2,611
-14
2,611
-14
36.7
5.9
-123
Financials & Valuations(INR b)
2018 2019E
Y/E March
Sales
150.3
197.1
EBITDA
13.5
17.6
NP
8.1
10.6
EPS (Rs)
12.9
17.0
EPS Growth (%)
68.4
31.2
BV/Share (INR)
74.8
91.8
P/E (x)
103.2
78.6
P/BV (x)
17.8
14.5
RoE (%)
18.9
20.4
RoCE (%)
16.1
19.7
2020E
248.2
22.8
14.0
22.5
32.6
114.3
59.3
11.7
21.8
21.0
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Standalone - Quarterly
Y/E March
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Minority Interest & P/L of Asso. Cos.
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
Margins (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
35,981
35.7
32,949
3,032
8.4
337
243
228
2,680
932
34.8
0
1,748
1,748
47.6
4.9
Aliasgar Shakir – Research analyst
(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1565
Hafeez Patel – Research analyst
(Hafeez.Patel@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1568
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.