18 January 2019
Update
| Sector:
Metals
NMDC
Buy
BSE SENSEX
36,387
S&P CNX
10,907
CMP: INR91
TP: INR111(+22%)
Iron ore dispatches to grow even without Donimalai
17mtpa capacity already renewed; Maintain Buy
We met the management of NMDC for a business update. Key highlights:
Karnataka mining complex:
Donimalai and Kumarswamy are NMDC’s two
mining leases (ML) in Karnataka with permitted annual production of 7mtpa
each. Donimalai operations are temporarily shut pending a hearing in the
High Court regarding unreasonable demand of 80% share in revenue as a
condition for renewing the ML. Management is very confident of winning the
case because (1) this judgment will have unprecedented impact on all Public
Sector Undertakings (PSUs), (2) the mining act doesn’t provide for it, and (3)
it will stifle merchant mining. The next court hearing is on 22 January 2019.
Chhattisgarh mining complex:
Two MLs with total capacity of 17mtpa have
already been renewed, which is half of current production. ML of 7mtpa
deposit 11B is valid up to September 2037 (20 years) and 10mtpa deposit 13
is valid up to 2067 (50 years). Renewal of other leases is in process. NMDC is
currently shipping about 23mtpa iron ore from this complex. In the worst
case if outcome in the Donimalai judgment is not favorable, NMDC will still
have 17mtpa profitable capacity. Further, NMDC is confident that the
Chhattisgarh government will not be as demanding as the Karnataka
government. The Chhattisgarh government is aware that MLs will not fetch
much price from private miners in auction because of the Naxal problem in
the area.
Targeting 30-31mt dispatches in FY19 even without Donimalai:
NMDC has
already dispatched 22.1mt in nine months and is targeting another 9mt
dispatches in 4Q. A slightly better volume can be achieved in FY20 aided by
higher exports.
Strengthening evacuation infra:
NMDC is creating a storage yard near
Jagdalpur, which will debottleneck dispatches from Chhattisgarh by 4-5mt
(to 28mt). This will help dispatches of 35mt even without Donimalai. KK line
is being doubled in phases. The project will be fully completed during FY21.
3mtpa steel plant at Nagarnar
will be commissioned during FY20. About
1000 people have been recruited at various levels (mostly retirees from SAIL,
RINL, NINL), O&M has been outsourced.
Maintain Buy:
We believe that NMDC will eventually get its MLs renewed
without sharing any revenues as per the Mining Act Amendment 2015, but
are not sure how long the legal battle will drag. The steel plant may have
some teething troubles in the initial years, but it is likely to be a valuable
asset. It will enjoy low cost iron ore, economy of scale, high productivity from
state-of-art technology, and it doesn’t have legacy issues like SAIL. We value
the stock at INR111/share based on 3xEV/EBITDA for book value and for
CWIP at end-FY20. Maintain
Buy.
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
NMDC IN
3,164
287 / 4
152 / 86
-5/-5/-40
434
27.6
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2019E 2020E 2021E
Sales
108.1
96.2 141.3
EBITDA
62.3
48.8 60.6
Adj. PAT
39.9
31.8 37.7
Adj. EPS (INR)
12.6
10.1 11.9
EPS Gr(%)
-3.6 -20.4 18.6
BV/Sh. (INR)
82.0
84.9 89.6
RoE (%)
15.9
12.0 13.7
RoCE (%)
15.2
11.5 13.1
P/E (x)
7.2
9.1
7.6
P/BV
1.1
1.1
1.0
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-18 Sep-18 Dec-17
Promoter
72.4
72.4
74.9
DII
19.0
19.4
17.4
FII
3.9
3.7
3.6
Others
4.7
4.5
4.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
160
140
120
100
80
NMDC
Sensex - Rebased
Sanjay Jain – Research Analyst
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523
Dhruv Muchhal – Research Analyst
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.