E
CO
S
COPE
Fathoming the ‘Depths of Debt’
Debt size is a crucial determinant of financial stability in any economy. Unfortunately,
though, in India, there has been no measure to learn about the country’s total debt owing
Distribution of India’s total debt
by sectors (% of GDP)
General government (GG)
Non-financial corporates (NFCs)
Households
22 February 2019
The Economy Observer
to the unavailability of the official estimate of non-government non-financial (NGNF) debt.
In this note, we thus attempt to bridge this gap and use data from various official sources
to project India’s total debt.
PRESENTING ESTIMATES OF INDIA’S NGNF, AND THUS, TOTAL DEBT
Our estimates suggest that India’s total debt stood at 149.8% of GDP (or USD3.9t) in
FY18 – the highest-ever level. While government debt remained elevated at ~68% of
GDP, NGNF sector debt was also at an all-time high of 81.4% of GDP in FY18. Within
the NGNF sector, while the corporate sector deleveraged – debt down from the peak
of 51% of GDP in FY14 to 48.3% in FY18, household debt touched a new peak of 33.1%
of GDP in FY18.
66.6
68.6
68.1
68.4
49.7
29.0
FY15
49.9
30.2
FY16
49.1
30.9
FY17
48.3
33.1
FY18
COMPARISON OF INDIA’S DEBT VIS-À-VIS 19 OTHER MAJOR NATIONS
A comparison of the debt statistics for 10 emerging markets (EMs) and 10 advanced
economies (AEs) suggests that, although India’s government debt is the second-
highest in the EM pack, its NGNF debt is on the lower side. Consequently, India’s total
debt is at the middle of the debt range of major EMs.
India’s total debt is ~150% of
GDP and there is no slowdown
in credit growth in 3QFY19
QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF NGNF DEBT SUGGEST NO MAJOR SLOWDOWN
Apart from estimating India’s debt on an annual basis, we also project India’s NGNF
debt on a quarterly basis. Quarterly debt statistics for the government sector,
however, are not available. Notwithstanding the IL&FS default in late September
2018, NGNF debt in India continued growing unabated in 3QFY19, beating all the fears
related to the adverse impact on India’s financial system. Although credit growth of
~18% YoY for NBFCs (including HFCs) was at a five-quarter low (albeit still strong) in
3QFY19, it was at a nine-quarter high (~12% YoY) for banks. Consequently, NGNF
NGNF debt to GDP ratio is close
to an all-time high in 3QFY19
NGNF debt-to-GDP ratio (%)
credit grew 13.3% YoY in 3QFY19, only marginally slower than 14% in 2QFY19 and
much higher than sub-12% in FY17 and FY18.
INDIA’S DEBT INTENSITY OF GDP GROWTH IS NOT WORRISOME
Finally, India’s total debt has increased modestly by 4.5 percentage points (pp) of GDP
over the past three years (FY15-18), which is better than the serious deleveraging in
Russia and the massive increase of 22pp in China. Finally, a comparison of India’s
nominal GDP growth with total debt growth reveals that India’s debt intensity of GDP
growth (defined
as the growth in debt needed to produce an additional percentage
point of nominal GDP growth)
has not changed significantly over the past 15 years and
ranged between the best of 0.8x in FY11 and FY15, and the worst of 1.4x in FY09. Debt
intensity stood at 1.1x in FY18 – exactly the average of the highest and lowest levels
over the past 15 years.
Nikhil Gupta
– Research analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5405
Rahul Agrawal
– Research analyst
(Rahul.Agrawal@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5445
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
METHODOLOGY USED FOR ESTIMATING TOTAL DEBT IN THE COUNTRY
Scheduled
commercial
banks (SCBs)
HOUSEHOLDS (HH)
Non-banking
financial
companies
(NBFCs)
Non-government non-
financial (NGNF) sector
Housing
finance
companies
(HFCs)
NON-FINANCIAL
CORPORATE SECTOR
Corporate
bonds
TOTAL
NON-
FINANCIAL
DEBT
Commercial
papers (CPs)
Includes private as well
as public companies
External
sector
GENERAL
GOVERNMENT
(CENTER + STATES)
Others*(RBI,
corporate
sector, etc.)
22 February 2019
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Estimating India’s total debt-to-GDP ratio
Although India is the fastest
growing major economy in
the world, it is nothing less
than ironical that there is
no measure to learn about
the economy’s debt
Although India is the fastest growing major economy in the world, it is nothing less
than ironical that there is no measure to learn about the economy’s debt. While
debt is one of the most important sources of financing, it is also a critical
determinant of financial stability in an economy and could potentially lead to a
slowdown (or total collapse), if left unchecked. We attempt to bridge this vacuum by
providing estimates of total debt in India over the past 15 years and also the main
sources (by institutions)/users (by sectors) of this debt. To our knowledge, this is
one-of-its-kind study – a beginning of improving on India’s statistical database,
which has a long way to go. We also compare India’s debt vis-à-vis other major
emerging markets (EMs) and major advanced economies (AEs).
India’s total debt-to-GDP ratio at all-time high in FY18:
Our estimates of India’s
debt suggest that total debt increased from USD1.6t (INR80.3t) a decade ago to
USD3.9t (or INR251t) in FY18. This 2.4x rise in the country’s total debt (and 3.1x in
INR terms) was similar to nominal GDP growth. Thus, India’s debt-to-GDP ratio was
149.8% in FY18, not significantly different from 147.2% in FY09 but higher than
143.4% in FY12
(Exhibit 1-2).
In fact, India’s total debt-to-GDP ratio in FY18 was at its
all-time high.
Exhibit 2:
…as national debt has grown faster than nominal
GDP in most years
25
20
15
10
5
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
Nominal GDP
(% YoY)
Total debt
India’s total debt-to-GDP
ratio was 149.8% (USD3.9t)
in FY18, not significantly
different from 147.2% in
FY09 but higher than
143.4% in FY12
Exhibit 1:
India’s total debt-to-GDP ratio has risen steadily
to all-time high of ~150%…
Total debt-to-GDP
Please read our methodology to estimate India’s total debt in
Appendix#1
at the end of the report
Source: Central Statistics office (CSO), Reserve Bank of India (RBI),
Ministry of Finance (MoF), National Housing Bank (NHB), CEIC, MoSL
22 February 2019
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Break-up of India’s total debt by creditors
Our estimates suggest that
India’s NGNF debt was
81.4% of GDP (or USD2.1t)
in FY18, marking the
highest-ever level
As mentioned above, India’s total debt stood at USD3.9t in FY18, amounting to
149.8% of GDP. Although there is a long historical series available on government
debt in India, we, in this note, attempt to estimate NGNF sector debt. Our estimates
of NGNF debt are arrived from the creditors’ loan book to the end-user, and thus,
we begin by commenting on the creditors to India’s NGNF sector. There are
primarily six major sources of institutional lenders in the country available for the
corporate and household sectors – SCBs, NBFCs, HFCs, corporate bonds (CBs), CPs
and ECBs. As explained in
Appendix#1
at the end of the report, various adjustments
have been made to avoid double counting in the estimates of NGNF debt in the
country. Our estimates suggest that India’s NGNF debt was 81.4% of GDP (or
USD2.1t) in FY18, marking the highest-ever level and much higher than 72.7% in
FY09
(Exhibit 3).
Exhibit 4:
…supported by higher growth in HFCs and NBFCs
40
30
20
10
0
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
Banks
CBs
(% YoY)
NBFCs
NGNF debt
HFCs
Exhibit 3:
India’s NGNF debt was at all-time high in FY18…
Non-government non-financial (NGNF) debt
(% of GDP)
Please read our methodology to estimate India’s total debt in
Appendix#1
at the end of the report
CPs and ECBs excluded because of high volatility
Source: CSO, RBI, MoF, NHB, CEIC, MoSL
Although banks remain the
dominant creditor in the
economy, their share in
end-user credit has fallen
from 73% in FY05 to sub-
60% in FY18
A look at various creditors reveals that while bank credit growth has averaged ~9%
over the past five years, it averaged ~22% for HFCs, 18% for CBs and 15.7% for
NBFCs
(Exhibit 4).
Consequently, although banks remain the dominant creditor in
the economy, their share in end-user credit has fallen consistently from 73% in FY05
to 66.5% in FY12 and further to first-time sub-60% in FY18
(Exhibit 5).
The share of
HFCs, corporate bonds and NBFCs has increased.
Exhibit 5:
Evolving share of various creditors to India’s NGNF debt
(% of NGNF debt)
10.5
0.3
5.8
10.3
8.9
1.0
5.4
10.5
9.6
4.6
4.3
9.8
10.4
5.5
4.6
10.2
Banks
11.1
7.0
4.4
9.6
NBFCs
8.8
9.5
4.4
9.1
67.3
HFCs
8.5
9.8
4.4
9.7
9.6
8.1
4.5
10.5
CBs
10.4
8.0
4.9
10.7
65.3
CPs
11.0
7.9
5.1
10.9
64.4
FY14
ECBs
9.9
8.5
5.7
11.3
63.2
FY15
9.4
9.8
6.2
11.9
61.1
FY16
8.2
10.3
6.7
12.1
60.5
FY17
8.2
10.5
7.6
12.9
59.0
FY18
73.0
74.1
71.5
69.0
67.3
66.8
66.5
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Source: BIS, MOSL
22 February 2019
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Break-up of India’s total debt by debtors
Apart from estimating India’s NGNF debt, and thus total debt, we also project the
distribution of debt in three categories (which are major economic participants):
households, non-financial corporate (NFCs) and general government (GG). The
understanding of the break-up of total debt by debtors (or sectors) is also important
because higher debt in one particular sector may require macro prudential
measures there which are different from the other sectors. As shown in the flow
chart on page 2, while the corporate sector borrows from a variety of sources,
households do not enjoy as many options. The key sources of borrowings for
households are banks, NBFCs and HFCs.
Our estimates suggest (as discussed above) that India’s NGNF debt was at the all-
time highest level of 81.4% of GDP in FY18
(Exhibit 3 above).
After combining
general government (center + states) debt equivalent to ~68% of GDP in FY18 with
NGNF debt, India’s total debt comes to an all-time high of ~150% of GDP.
Household debt has risen to
an all-time high of 33.1% of
GDP in FY18, while India’s
corporate sector has
deleveraged, with the debt-
to-GDP ratio at a six-year-
low of 48.3%
However, the composition of NGNF debt has changed significantly (Please see
Appendix#2
at the end of the report to understand our methodology). Household
sector now accounts for ~22% of total debt in the country, the highest-ever in the
past 15 years and in comparison to 17% a decade ago. Consequently, while
household debt has risen from 29% of GDP in FY15 to an all-time high of 33.1% in
FY18, India’s corporate sector has deleveraged, with the debt-to-GDP ratio at a six-
year-low of 48.3% in FY18
(Exhibit 6).
The government debt-to-GDP ratio, however,
at 68.4% is close to the highest level in the past eight years.
Exhibit 6:
Distribution of India’s total debt into three major sectors/debtors
(% of GDP)
Households
Non-financial corporates (NFCs)
General government (GG)
84.7
81.5
77.0
73.7
74.5
72.8
67.6
67.4
66.7
67.1
66.6
68.6
68.1
68.4
25.2
22.2
FY05
28.6
25.0
FY06
35.0
26.5
FY07
40.4
27.1
FY08
47.4
25.3
FY09
48.8
24.9
FY10
48.0
26.9
FY11
47.5
28.5
FY12
49.9
30.2
FY13
51.0
29.6
FY14
49.7
29.0
FY15
49.9
30.2
FY16
49.1
30.9
FY17
48.3
33.1
FY18
To understand our assumptions regarding the household and NFCs debt, please see
Appendix#2
at the end of the report
Source: RBI, CSO, CEIC, Various other sources, MOSL
Household debt is much more than ‘personal loans’:
The absence of debt statistics
in India is one of the most serious shortcomings in policy making. Various
news
reports
and
statistical database
(or
here)
suggest that household debt in India is
about 10-11% of GDP and has hovered around that level for the past many years.
International organizations such as
Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
also suggest a similar level of household debt
for the Indian economy. However, an important question remains unanswered – if
household debt has remained stable for so many years, where does the farmer debt
stress come from?
22 February 2019
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
We understand that these estimates of household debt consider only a portion of
banks’ credit in India called ‘personal loans’ extended. Banks’ personal loans stood
at INR16.2t at FY17-end and INR19.1t at FY18-end, implying 10.6% and 11.4% of
GDP, respectively, for these two years, very similar to the numbers suggested by
various research notes, news articles, statistical databases and international
organizations. These projections, however, are a gross under-estimation of
household debt in the country, in our view.
Household debt extended
by banks was 25.3% of GDP
in FY18, not ~11% – as
suggested by ‘personal
loans’
Bank loans to household amount to ~25% of GDP…:
As explained
earlier in our
detailed notes analyzing India’s household balance sheet,
banks’ personal loans are
only a portion of total household debt. Although the RBI classifies bank loans on a
monthly basis by occupation (agriculture, industry, services and personal loans), it
also provides the break-up of bank credit on an annual basis by organization
(households, private and public financial and non-financial corporate sector and
governments). We use the latter classification to estimate total loans by banks to
households in India and they turn out to be very different from the usual estimates.
Although personal loans at INR19.2t accounted for ~21% of banks’ total credit (and
11.4% of GDP) in FY18, total exposure of the banks to the Indian household sector
amounted to 48.3% (or INR42.3t) of all bank loans
(Exhibit 7-8).
Household debt
extended by banks, thus, was 25.3% of GDP in FY18, not ~11% – as suggested by
‘personal loans’.
Exhibit 7:
Personal credit accounts for ~21% of total bank
loans…
Personal
loans, 21.2
Exhibit 8:
…while household loans account for as much as
~48% of bank loans
(% of total )
42.9
47.3
48.0
Households (HH) loans
44.6
42.8
42.6
43.3
48.3
38.8
Non-
personal
loans, 78.8
FY02
FY04
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
Source: RBI, CEIC, MoSL
…and NBFCs/HFCs also lend to households:
This, however, is also an incomplete
measure of household debt because it does not include the loans and advances
from NBFCs and HFCs. Data from National Housing Bank (NHB) reveals that ~75% of
total outstanding loans by HFCs are retail housing loans. HFCs’ outstanding housing
loans were INR6t (or 3.9% of GDP) in FY17, which is estimated to have risen to
INR7.4t (or 4.4% of GDP) in FY18.
Such calculations, however, are not so straight-forward for NBFCs. Unlike banks or
HFCs, NBFCs do not resort to uniform loan details. It was only in December 2015
when the RBI made it mandatory for NBFCs to also report the loans details in the
same format as SCBs – classification of credit by occupation. However, since
22 February 2019
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
personal loans are only a portion of household debt, such classification is not useful
to divide the exposure of NBFCs to household and NFCs sectors. Instead, we use
individual company-wise data for 24 NBFCs and break their gross loans and
advances into five sectors – infrastructure, commercial real estate, commercial
vehicles, capital market exposure and others (the residual). The first three segments
represent the corporate sector, while the last two are considered as ‘household
debt’ (Please see
Appendix#2
at the end of the report for details). These
assumptions lead to estimates suggesting that almost one-third of NBFCs’ loan book
is exposed to the household sector, amounting to INR5.7t in FY18.
Aggregating bank, HFC and
NBFC loans suggest
household debt amounting
to 33.1% of GDP in FY18
Household debt in India was 33.1% of GDP in FY18, not ~11%:
These three sources
of institutional borrowings suggest total household debt of INR55.4t (or USD853b) in
FY18, equivalent to 33.1% of GDP – the highest-ever level. Further, more than three-
fifth of household debt is still provided by banks, which has come down from its
peak share of ~83% in FY10 and FY11.
Exhibit 10:
…which has risen from 29% in FY15 to all-time
peak of 33.1% of GDP in FY18
(% of GDP)
7
5
4
6
5
6
Exhibit 9:
Banks still account for more than three-fourth of
household debt…
(INRt)
Banks
NBFCs
HFCs
Household debt
1
7
1
1
9
1
1
11
1
1
11
2
1
13
2
2
17
2
2
21
3
3
25
3
3
27
4
3
29
33
37
42
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
Source: RBI, CEIC, MoSL
NFCs debt in India has fallen
from its peak of 51% of GDP
in FY14 to 48.3% in FY18,
marking the lowest level in
the past six years
India’s corporate sector, however, has deleveraged over past four years…:
After
estimating household debt, we project debt for the non-financial corporate (NFC)
sector by deducting household debt from our estimates of NGNF debt. These
estimates suggest that the non-financial corporate sector has deleveraged over the
past four years, as NFCs’ debt has fallen from its peak of 51% of GDP in FY14 to
48.3% in FY18 (Exhibit
11).
In other words, corporate debt in India in FY18 was at the
lowest level in six years.
…and banks have lost share in corporate debt:
Like for households, we also look at
the share of major creditors to India’s NFC sector (Exhibit
12).
Interestingly, while
the share of banks and external commercial borrowings (ECBs) has fallen, the share
of NBFCs and corporate bonds (CBs) has increased. Almost 18% of corporate debt is
raised through CBs, which was ~10% a decade ago, while the share of bank
borrowings has fallen from ~60% to ~47% during the same period. NBFCs have also
increased their exposure to the corporate sector, which now stands at 14.8% versus
~10% a decade ago. Although the share of ECBs in corporate debt is volatile, it
appears to have fallen over the past few years – from ~16-17% five years ago to
~14% in FY18. Overall, the reduced share of banks in India’s total debt is because of
The reduced share of banks
in India’s total debt is
because of their reduced
corporate lending
22 February 2019
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
their reduced lending to the corporate sector – this appears in sync with the
deterioration of many public sector banks (PSBs), which were mainly focused on
corporate or investment-related credit.
Exhibit 11:
Non-financial corporate sector has deleveraged
over the past four years…
Non-financial corporate (NFC) sector debt
(% of GDP)
Exhibit 12:
…and the share of banks has fallen dramatically
in corporate debt
Banks
NBFCs
Bonds
ECBs
Others*
16.7 16.9 17.4 17.0 13.3 13.3 15.3 16.7 17.5 15.6 15.1 13.3 13.8
1.9
11.7 8.1 9.1 10.7 14.3 15.2 13.0 12.8 12.4 13.5 15.7 16.9 17.8
11.2 10.6 9.6 9.9
10.7 11.7 12.1 12.1 12.7
13.5 13.7 14.8
67.8 62.2 60.1 59.8
59.4 57.8 56.8 55.1 55.0 53.8
50.7 49.6 47.1
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
* HFCs + CPs
Source: RBI, CEIC, MoSL
Government debt stood at
68.4% of GDP in FY18 and
has been in a very tight
range over past three years
Government debt has been stable at high levels over past three years…:
General
government (center + states) debt stood at 68.4% of GDP in FY18, very close to the
all-time peak of 68.6% in FY16, but slightly higher than the 15-year low of 66.6% in
FY15
(Exhibit 13).
Government debt has remained in a very tight range of 68.1-
68.6% of GDP over the past three years.
Exhibit 14:
…as the fall in center’s debt was offset by the rise
state government debt
(% of GDP)
Center
States
Exhibit 13:
Government debt in India has been stable over
the past many years…
(% of GDP)
General government debt
32.0 29.8
27.5 26.9 26.2
24.2 22.8 22.2 22.0 21.7 23.4
23.8 24.0
65.9 63.3 60.7 60.5 58.0
53.8 53.5 52.5 52.2 51.4 51.6 49.9 49.2
FY06
Source: RBI, MoSL
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
Source: RBI, MoSL
…as lower debt by center was offset by higher debt by states:
The central
government has reduced its leverage consistently, while states have seen an
increase in the debt levels. Center’s debt stood at 35-year lowest level of 49.2% of
GDP in FY18, while states’ debt was at a six-year high of 24% last year
(Exhibit 14).
The rise in the latter was partly on account of the UDAY scheme, wherein the state
governments took over 75% debt of state electricity boards (SEBs) on their book in
two installments – 50% by March 2016 and another 25% by March 2017.
22 February 2019
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
How does India’s debt compare vis-à-vis other major nations?
Our estimates of India’s debt suggest that the total debt-to-GDP ratio was ~150% of
GDP in FY18, marking the highest-ever level.
Is this unsustainable or manageable? What about sectoral debt? Is 33% household
debt too low or too high? What about corporate or government debt?
One way to answer these questions is to compare India’s debt ratio vis-à-vis other
major EMs. We, thus, compare the debt-to-GDP ratios of 10 EMs and include (for
representative purposes) data for 10 major developed economies into our analysis.
India’s government debt is
second only to Brazil among
EMs and also higher than
some AEs such as Australia,
Korea and Germany
India’s government debt is among highest compared to other EMs…:
While India’s
general government debt has been stable over the past three years, it does not
compare favorably with most major EMs. As seen in
Exhibit 15
below, India’s
government debt at 68.4% of GDP is among the highest compared to other major
EMs, second only to Brazil, which has government debt-to-GDP ratio of 83.2%. In
fact, India’s government debt is also higher than some advanced economies (AEs)
such as Australia, Korea and Germany.
Consistently high fiscal deficits of over 6%
(in 33 of the last 37 years) have resulted in a much higher government debt-to-
GDP ratio compared to other EMs.
Exhibit 15:
India’s government debt is among highest in comparison to other EMs
Government debt-to-GDP ratio
Advanced economies (AEs)
Emerging markets (EMs)
83.2
37.0 38.1
87.2
96.7 98.1 98.5
131.1
201.1
15.5
RU
50.8 54.7
39.9 46.2
28.4 29.1 32.5
68.4
63.8 71.6
TU
ID
TH
TW
CH
MY
SAf
IN
BR
AU
KR
DE
CA
UK
US
ES
FR
IT
JP
Brazil (BR), China (CH), India (IN), Indonesia (ID), Malaysia (MY), Russia (RU), South Africa (SAf), Taiwan (TW), Thailand (TH), Turkey (TU);
Australia (AU), Canada, (CA), France, (FR) Germany (DE), Italy (IT), Japan (JP), Korea (KR), Spain (ES), United Kingdom (UK), United States (US)
Data for India is for FY18. For all other countries data is for calendar year 2017
Source: BIS, CEIC, MOSL
Corporate deleveraging in
India of 2.7pp of GDP was
low compared to the fall of
10pp in Russia, ~8pp in
Brazil & ~6pp in China
…however, corporate debt is at middle of EM pack:
Although India’s government
debt is among the highest compared to other EMs, corporate debt in India is among
the lowest. At 48.3%, corporate debt of India is similar to that of Russia (RU) and
Thailand (TH) and much lower than that of Malaysia (MY), Turkey (TU), Taiwan (TW)
and China (CH). Interestingly, like in India, the corporate debt to GDP ratio has fallen
in almost all EMs, except South Africa (SAf) and Turkey (TU). However, the fall in
India’s corporate debt – down 2.7pp of GDP from its peak of 51% in FY14 to 48.3% in
FY18 – was among the lowest among other EMs. Corporate debt in Russia (RU),
Brazil (BR) and China (CH) has declined by as much as 10pp, 7.7pp and 5.7pp
respectively, over the past 1-2 years. Further,
corporate debt in all developed
economies is higher than that in India. On the contrary, corporate debt in China is
the highest among all 20 nations that are part of this study.
22 February 2019
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 16:
Non-financial corporate debt for India is at middle vis-à-vis other EMs
Non-financial corporate sector debt-to-GDP ratio
146.9
Emerging markets (EMs)
67.3 68.6
76.3
54.0
71.5 73.2
82.6
Advanced economies (AEs)
99.4
91.6 96.5 98.3
114.9
143.2
22.4
48.0 48.0
38.0 40.8
48.3
ID
SAf
BR
RU
TH
IN
MY
TU
TW
CH
DE
IT
US
UK
AU
ES
KR
JP
CA
FR
Brazil (BR), China (CH), India (IN), Indonesia (ID), Malaysia (MY), Russia (RU), South Africa (SAf), Taiwan (TW), Thailand (TH), Turkey (TU);
Australia (AU), Canada, (CA), France, (FR) Germany (DE), Italy (IT), Japan (JP), Korea (KR), Spain (ES), United Kingdom (UK), United States (US)
Data for India is for FY18. For all other countries data is for calendar year 2017
Source: BIS, CEIC, MOSL
India’s household debt is among the lowest…:
Our most important contribution
through this note is the comparable data on household debt for 20 countries. Just
like for India, we checked household debt of various EMs reported by the BIS with
their national sources. We found that household debt in TH and SAf is actually
higher than that reported by the BIS, while we could not verify it for Indonesia (ID)
and MY because of the lack of national sources on the comprehensive data.
Our analysis suggests that
while household debt in
India is 3x of that reported
by the BIS, it is still among
the lowest compared to
other EMs
Our analysis suggests that while household debt in India is 3x of that reported by the
BIS, it is still among the lowest compared to other EMs
(Exhibit 17).
India’s
household debt-to-GDP ratio at 33.1% is higher when compared to BR and RU, but is
much lower than in SAf and CH. Although a relatively low household debt-to-GDP
ratio points to ample scope for further leveraging, our
earlier analysis
had indicated
that low financial assets and a falling household savings rate in India present serious
constraints to such potential rise in household debt.
Exhibit 17:
India’s household debt is still among the lowest in comparison to other EMs
Household debt-to-GDP ratio
Advanced economies (AEs)
Emerging markets (EMs)
67.1
78.4
86.1
58.6 61.2
53.0 57.4
76.9
41.3
86.2 90.9 100.0
121.1
16.1 17.0 17.0
24.7
33.1
43.0
49.9
RU
TU
ID*
BR
IN
SAf
CH
MY*
TH
TW
IT
DE
JP
FR
ES
US
UK
KR
CA
AU
Brazil (BR), China (CH), India (IN), Indonesia (ID), Malaysia (MY), Russia (RU), South Africa (SAf), Taiwan (TW), Thailand (TH), Turkey (TU);
Australia (AU), Canada, (CA), France, (FR) Germany (DE), Italy (IT), Japan (JP), Korea (KR), Spain (ES), United Kingdom (UK), United States (US)
* Data for ID and MY couldn’t be verified by national sources
Data for India is for FY18. For all other countries data is for calendar year 2017
Source: CSO, RBI, CEIC,
MOSL
22 February 2019
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
While government debt in
India is one of the highest
compared to other EMs,
relatively low NGNF debt
brings India’s total debt in
the middle of EM pack
…and, thus, total debt is right at middle vis-à-vis major EMs:
On aggregating the
government and NGNF debt for the world’s 20 major economies, we note that
India’s total debt at ~150% of GDP is right at the middle of the EM pack and much
lower than all AEs considered in this study
(Exhibit 18).
It confirms the fact that
while government debt in India is one of the highest compared to other EMs,
relatively low NGNF debt brings India’s total debt in the middle of the EM pack.
Government debt accounts for ~45% of India’s total debt, which is in stark contrast
to some other EMs such as TH, TW and CH, wherein government accounts for less
than 20% of national debt. However, total debt in these countries is much higher
than that of India’s, which makes them more vulnerable.
Lower total debt, not government debt, is a sign of financial stability in the
economy. When Ireland and Spain faced one of the worst economic crisis in 2008,
their government debt (at ~25% and ~35% of GDP respectively) accounted for only
15-20% of total national debt. Although government (or public sector) debt receives
very high attention, it does not necessarily imply high vulnerability to financial
stability in the country, as reflected by India and Brazil.
Lower total debt, not
government debt, is a sign
of financial stability in the
economy
Exhibit 18:
India’s total debt sits right in the middle of the EM pack
Total non-financial debt-to-GDP ratio
Advanced economies (AEs)
Emerging markets (EMs)
256
256
287
300
358
69
80
114
136
149
150
159
185
202
243
171
227
244
247
250
ID
RU
TU
SAf
BR
IN
TH
MY
TW
CH
DE
KR
IT
US
AU
ES
UK
CA
FR
JP
Brazil (BR), China (CH), India (IN), Indonesia (ID), Malaysia (MY), Russia (RU), South Africa (SAf), Taiwan (TW), Thailand (TH), Turkey (TU);
Australia (AU), Canada, (CA), France, (FR) Germany (DE), Italy (IT), Japan (JP), Korea (KR), Spain (ES), United Kingdom (UK), United States (US)
Data for India is for FY18. For all other countries data is for calendar year 2017
Source: CSO, RBI, MOSL
22 February 2019
11
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
What are the recent trends in India’s debt?
Since there are no official estimates of India’s outstanding credit to the commercial
(private + public) sector, the above analysis provides a basis of the historical
perspective. The analysis, however, is incomplete without understanding the recent
trends in India’s debt. What has happened in FY19? Has credit slowed down
significantly in 3QFY19 when India’s financial system, post IL&FS default, witnessed
immense tightening? Using the above discussed methodology and some further
assumptions, we estimate India’s debt on a quarterly basis up to 3QFY19. Since data
on general government debt is not available on a quarterly basis, we comment on
India’s quarterly NGNF debt. Our estimates suggest that there was no slowdown in
NGNF debt growth in FY19 or 3QFY19. In fact, growth in India’s NGNF debt in the
first three quarters of FY19 was the highest in six years and very solid in 3QFY19 as
well.
Our estimates suggest that
growth in India’s NGNF debt
in the first three quarters of
FY19 was the highest in six
years and very solid in
3QFY19 as well
No slowdown in NGNF credit growth in FY19 or 3QFY19…:
Our analysis suggests that NGNF credit in India grew at an average of 13.7% YoY in
the first three quarters of FY19, faster than ~12% growth recorded in the
corresponding period in the last two years
(Exhibit 19).
In 3QFY19, NGNF debt grew
13.3% YoY, only marginally slower than 13.9% in 1HFY19.
India’s NGNF debt to GDP
ratio was 81.1% in 3QFY19,
similar to the all-time high
ratio of 81.2% at end-FY18
Consequently, India’s NGNF debt to GDP ratio was 81.1% in 3QFY19, similar to the
all-time high ratio of 81.2% at end-FY18 (note that our annual data showed NGNF
debt-to-GDP ratio at 81.4% because of minor changes in annual and quarterly ECB
data). Importantly, there are no signs of sustained deceleration in India’s NGNF debt
over the past few years, implying that there was no systemic deceleration (let alone
decline) in outstanding credit of India’s NFCs and households
(Exhibit 20).
Exhibit 20:
…and NGNF debt to GDP ratio is close to an all-
time high seen at end-FY18
NGNF debt-to-GDP ratio (%)
13.8 14.0
13.1
13.3
Exhibit 19:
India’s NGNF debt continued growing strongly in
3QFY19…
(% YoY)
14.1
India's NGNF debt
11.9
11.5
10.5
10.2
1QFY18
10.6
3QFY18
12.1
1QFY17
3QFY17
1QFY19
3QFY19
1QFY16 3QFY16 1QFY17 3QFY17 1QFY18 3QFY18 1QFY19 3QFY19
Please note the only minor difference between annual and quarterly
NGNF data is due to ECBs; all else are the same
Source: RBI, NHB, CSO, NBFCs/HFCs company reports, CEIC, MOSL
…as banks and corporate bonds mostly make up for slowdown in NBFCs:
As explained in the first section, our estimates for NGNF debt are arrived at by
adding the loan book of major institutional lenders in the country along with various
required adjustments in order to avoid double counting. This methodology helps us
classify India’s NGNF debt by major creditors.
22 February 2019
12
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
With the default of IL&FS in late September 2018, the fears of a serious effect on
India’s financial system health was raised since NBFCs (including HFCs) accounted
for over 20% of total NGNF debt in the country, up from 17% in FY15. Our analysis of
28 individual NBFCs (+HFCs), which together account for more than 70% of entire
industry, confirms that growth has slowed from ~23% YoY in 2QFY19 to ~18% in
3QFY19. However, it was majorly offset by higher growth in banks’ credit and
corporate bonds
(Exhibit 21).
Exhibit 21:
Slight slowdown in NBFCs and HFCs loans was majorly offset by banks and bonds
(INR b)
Banks
NBFCs
HFCs
Corporate bonds
Commercial Paper
ECBs
Total
Memo: NBFCs + HFCs
FY17
73,868
14,800
8,185
12,640
2,689
9,320
121,501
22,985
FY18
80,468
17,643
10,386
14,484
2,320
10,912
136,212
28,029
1QFY19
80,178
18,274
10,977
14,801
3,187
11,310
138,728
29,251
2QFY19
83,054
19,209
11,370
14,617
3,746
11,721
143,717
30,578
3QFY19
86,394
19,821
11,521
15,184
3,359
11,774
148,054
31,343
FY17
9.6
12.8
20.2
16.9
53.8
(6.8)
10.2
15.3
FY18
8.9
19.2
26.9
14.6
(13.7)
17.7
12.1
21.9
1QFY19
9.9
18.9
25.1
13.3
50.0
12.5
13.8
21.1
2QFY19
11.2
20.8
26.3
7.2
55.1
10.8
14.0
22.8
3QFY19
11.9
17.7
19.1
8.6
32.8
10.0
13.3
18.2
Please refer to
Appendix#1
for details
Source: RBI, CEIC, MOSL
Although credit by NBFCs
(+HFCs) grew at a five-
quarter low of ~18% YoY in
3QFY19, it grew at 9-
quarter highest pace of
~12% YoY for banks
Historical quarterly data shows the trends more clearly. Although credit by NBFCs
(+HFCs) grew at a five-quarter low of ~18% YoY in 3QFY19, it grew at the nine-
quarter highest pace of ~12% YoY for banks
(Exhibit 22).
For the first three quarters
of FY19, the share of banks in incremental NGNF credit was 50%, much higher than
sub-40% in FY17 and FY18, while it fell to 28% for NBFCs (+HFCs) as compared to
35%-40% in the corresponding period during the past three years
(Exhibit 23).
Overall, the slowdown in NBFC lending had a very limited impact on total NGNF debt
growth in 3QFY19.
Exhibit 23:
Banks have increased their share in incremental
NGNF credit in 9MFY19
Banks
NBFCs+HFCs
Bonds
1,083
18.2
11.2
11.9
8.6
3QFY19
935
770
1,858
2,319
836
9MFY16
696
1,151
2,125
1,765
(404)
9MFY17
1,341
3,531
3,339
(159)
9MFY18
9MFY19
5,926
CPs
ECBs
863
1,039
700
3,313
Exhibit 22:
Credit growth by major institutional lenders in
the past few quarters
25
20
15
10
5
3QFY17
1QFY18
3QFY18
1QFY19
7.2
Bank
NBFCs + HFCs
Corporate bonds
22.8
Source: RBI, CEIC, MoSL
22 February 2019
13
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Conclusion: India’s debt trajectory is not worrisome
In this note, we have presented our estimates of India’s non-government non-
financial (NGNF) debt, which can be monitored on a quarterly basis.
Notwithstanding all the concerns post-IL&FS default in late September 2018, our
estimates suggest that India’s NGNF credit continued growing strongly in 3QFY19 –
much faster than in the previous years. Our major contribution through this note is a
comprehensive estimate of India’s household sector, which was ~33% of GDP in
FY18 – almost 3x of the 10%-11% estimates normally believed or discussed in the
markets. We believe that further refinements could be done by various regulators,
which will help fill at least some of the vacuum that prevails in India’s
macroeconomic statistical database collection. Three major conclusions from our
analysis are:
1. India’s total debt has not risen much but the composition has changed:
Although there is regular annual data on India’s government debt, the absence
of official statistics on NGNF debt of the country has emerged as one of the
biggest vacuum. Using data from six major institutional lenders in the country,
we prepare an estimate of India’s NGNF debt, which confirms that India’s total
debt (comprises households, non-financial corporates (NFCs) and general
government) was ~150% of GDP in FY18, not very different from 145% three
years ago and ~147% five years ago. Nevertheless, the composition of debt in
India has changed since NGNF debt crossed 81% of GDP for the first time ever in
FY18. Within NGNF sector, while the corporate sector has deleveraged, Indian
household sector has added to its leverage amounting to 33.1% of GDP in FY18.
India has high public debt;
however, a relatively
modest total debt-to-GDP
ratio compared to other
EMs certainly provides
comfort
2. India’s debt has risen marginally over past three years:
A comparison of India’s
debt vis-à-vis nine other EMs and 10 AEs confirms that while India’s government
debt is on the higher side, household sector is still among least leveraged, while
corporate sector lies in the middle of the EM pack. Consequently, while high
public debt is often cited as one of the weakest macroeconomic metric for India,
a relatively modest total debt-to-GDP ratio compared to other EMs certainly
provides comfort.
Exhibit 24:
India has not seen a significant increase in debt-to-GDP ratio compared to other EMs
Change in total debt-to-GDP ratio in the past three years
Emerging markets (EMs)
19.4 22.2
1.4
(7.1)
(1.5) (0.3)
(10.5) (10.3)
(31.1)
ES
4.3
4.5
7.7
10.4
3.5
(0.3)
3.7
3.7
Advanced economies (AEs)
14.0
18.6
27.3
RU
TH
MY
TW
ID
IN
SAf
TU
BR
CH
IT
DE
JP
US
KR
UK
AU
FR
CA
Source: CSO, RBI, MOSL
22 February 2019
14
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Moreover, total debt-to-GDP ratio in India has risen by 4.5pp over the last three
years (Exhibit 24). This very modest rise in India’s debt-to-GDP ratio in the past
three years is better than deleveraging by RU, TH and MY and massive increase
in leveraging by CH, BR and TU.
3. India’s growth not heavily dependent on debt:
Finally, a comparison of India’s
nominal GDP growth and total debt growth confirms that the nation’s debt
intensity has not changed significantly over the past 15 years (analysis couldn’t
be performed on a quarterly basis as we do not have estimates of government
debt on a quarterly basis).
India’s debt intensity of
GDP growth has ranged
between the best of 0.8x (in
FY11 and FY15) and the
worst of 1.4x (FY09) over
the past 15 years and stood
at 1.1x in FY18
This is another way to saying that India’s debt-to-GDP ratio has not changed
significantly over the past many years. India’s debt intensity of GDP growth –
defined as growth in debt needed to produce an additional percentage point of
nominal GDP growth – has ranged between the best of 0.8x (in FY11 and FY15)
and the worst of 1.4x (FY09) over the past 15 years
(Exhibit 25-26).
The debt
intensity stood at 1.1x in FY18, implying that while nominal GDP grew 9.8% YoY,
total debt grew faster at 10.9% last year. Although debt intensity of less than
one (<1) is suggested for highly leveraged economies such as China, India’s debt
intensity (of slightly higher than 1) is nothing to be worried about considering its
modest total debt ratio.
Exhibit 26:
…confirms that debt intensity has not changed
dramatically
Debt intensity of GDP growth
1.37
1.25
1.19
1.19 1.18 1.14
1.12
1.05
1.05
0.97
0.97
0.84
0.83
Exhibit 25:
Comparison of India’s nominal GDP growth and
total debt growth since FY06…
(% YoY)
Nominal GDP
Total debt
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
Data up to FY12 is on 2004-05 base
The higher the intensity, the worse it is
Source: CSO, RBI, CEIC, MoSL
22 February 2019
15
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Appendix#1: Estimation of total debt of India’s non-financial
sector
Estimation of non-government non-financial (NGNF) sector:
Scheduled commercial
banks (SCBs), non-banking financial institutions (NBFCs) and housing finance
companies (HFCs) are the three major institutional sources of lending available to
the household and corporate sectors (which together constitute NGNF sector) in the
economy. Consequently, we use loans and advances data from these financial
companies to estimate total debt of the NGNF sector. Apart from these three
sources, the NGNF sector borrows through commercial papers (CPs), corporate
bonds (CBs) and external commercial borrowings (ECBs). We gather data on all
these six relevant parameters and make suitable adjustments to avoid double
counting. Given below are the details:
Loans and advances of SCBs excluding their lending to the financial sector
Loan book of NBFCs available from the RBI’s annual publication titled “Report on
trend and progress of banking in India.” For quarterly data beyond FY18, we
have compiled data from 18 individual NBFC companies, which account for
more than 70% of the entire industry (The list of NBFCs is provided below).
Outstanding loan book of HFCs is available from National Housing Bank (NHB) up
to FY17. For FY18 and quarterly data, we have used our sample of 10 HFCs,
which account for ~86% of the entire industry (the list of HFCs in the table
below).
Outstanding corporate bonds adjusted for debentures issued by NBFCs, HFCs
and tier-II capital of SCBs (assumed @2% of banks’ loan book)
Outstanding CPs, adjusted for NBFCs issuances
Long-term and short-term external debt (ECBs + rupee debt) raised by non-
financial non-government sector, adjusted for foreign institutional investors’
(FIIs) exposure in corporate bonds.
Total debt of the non-financial sector in India is estimated by adding NGNF debt to
the outstanding debt of the general government (GG, center + states).
In order to arrive at the
quarterly estimates of NGNF debt,
we used company-level
data for 18 NBFCs and 10 HFCs, which account for more than ~65% and ~82% of the
entire industry, respectively. The list of these companies is provided below:
List of 18 NBFCs and 10 HFCs used for quarterly analysis:
1. Bajaj finance
15. Reliance Capital
2. Cholamandalam
16. Shriram City Union
3. Edelweiss
17. Shriram transport finance
4. IIFL finance
18. Sundaram finance
5. HUDCO
19. Canfin
6. Indian Railway Finance corporation (IRFC)
20. Dewan housing
7. JM Financial
21. GIC finance
8. L&T financial
22. GRUH finance
9. Mahindra & Mahindra finance
23. HDFC Ltd.
10. Magma finance
24. ICICI housing loan
11. Mannapuram
25. Indiabulls housing
12. Muthoot
26. LIC housing
13. Power finance
27. PnB housing finance
14. REC Ltd.
28. REPCO finance
22 February 2019
16
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Appendix#2: Classification of NGNF debt into household and
non-financial corporate sectors
After arriving at India’s NGNF debt, the next step is to divide total debt into two
major sectors – households and non-financial corporate (NFCs) sector. Since
households borrow from three of the six sources – banks, NBFCs and HFCs, we
estimated the sector-wise or activity-wise outstanding credit for these three lenders
to arrive at household debt. The remaining NGNF debt, along with borrowings raised
through corporate bonds (CBs), commercial papers (CPs) and ECBs, is NFC debt.
Outstanding credit of SCBs according to organization:
Not much effort is required in
this category, as the annual publication called Basic Statistical Returns (BSR) of SCBs
released by the Reserve Bank of India provides this data. The table below provides
data for the past three years for the reference:
Total
Financial
Household
Non-financial
Share of
credit
corporations*
sector~
corporates (NFCs)#
households (%)
2015-16
75,226
15,006
32,795
27,425
45.2
2016-17
79,179
13,817
36,809
28,553
46.5
2017-18
87,669
14,798
42,526
30,345
48.5
* Excluded from Total credit to arrive at NGNF debt; ~ Includes non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH); # The residual after
deducting financial corporations and household sector
Source: Table 1.13/1.15 from RBI’s BSR of SCBs
INRb
Outstanding credit of HFCs to retail and commercial sector:
Data on annual
outstanding loans by HFCs are provided by National Housing Bank (NHB). Housing
loans – also provided by NHB – is included in household debt, while other loans are
included in NFC debt. The table below provides reference data for the past 3 years.
INRb
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
# Included in NFCs debt
Outstanding loans
6,811
8,185
10,386
Housing/retail loans
5,126
5,985
7,408
Share in total (%)
Other loans#
75.3
1,685
73.1
2,200
71.3
2,978
Source: National Housing Bank (NHB), Company reports
2017-18 Data is our estimate based on 12 individual HFCs accounting for ~86% of the industry
Outstanding credit of NBFCs by various activities/sectors:
Using individual data for
24 NBFCs, which account for ~83% of the entire industry, we classify NBFCs’ loan
book into four categories and keep the residual as ‘others’. The table below provides
reference data for the past three years.
Total loans &
Commercial real Capital market
Commercial
Others
Household
Infrastructure*
advances
estate#
exposure#
vehicles^
(Residual)
debt~
2015-16
13,118
6,991
827
1,465
1,427
2,408
3,873
2016-17
14,800
7,368
1,247
1,683
1,596
2,905
4,588
2017-18
17,643
8,519
1,502
1,661
1,895
4,065
5,727
* Loan book of 9 NBFCs – PFC, REC, SREI, PTC, L&T Infra, HUDCO Infra, IRFC, IFCI and IIFC; # From RBI’s Financial Stability report (FSR) for
various years; ^ Estimation from company-wise reports; ~ Addition of Capital market exposure and others
Source: RBI, Company reports
INRb
Estimation of household, and thus, NFC debt:
Addition of our estimates of
retail/household debt from banks, NBFCs and HFCs provides household debt in the
country. We understand that this could be slightly over-estimated because of the
opaqueness in NBFC data. However, until estimates of NGNF debt are robust, which,
we believe, is the case, these are unlikely to change the broad conclusions. More
research, nevertheless, is welcome.
22 February 2019
17
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
NOTES
22 February 2019
18
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the
inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL)* is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the
Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial
products. MOSL is a subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. (MOFSL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com
. MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/List%20of%20Associate%20companies.pdf
India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) & National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX) for its stock
broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) & National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and is member of Association of
Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products. Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are available on the website at
MOSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and
buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other
compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have
any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even
though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report
MOSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should
be aware that MOSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant
banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are available on the website at
https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com
,
www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based
on Fundamental research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are
segregated from MOSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to Subject Company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability
or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong
Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst
Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of
research report in Hong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity
to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these
securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not
located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state
laws in the United States. In addition MOSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together
with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment
services provided by MOSL , including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to
"Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This
document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only
available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the
U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct
business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International
Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S.
registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public
appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets
services license and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore.As per the approved agreement under Paragraph 9 of Third Schedule of Securities and Futures Act (CAP 289) and
Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110) provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary Authority of Singapore. Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL
in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “Institutional Investors”,
of which some of whom may consist of "accredited" institutional investors as defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“the
SFA”). Accordingly, if a Singapore person is not or ceases to be such an institutional investor, such Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and
inform MOCMSPL.
Specific Disclosures
1 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company.
2 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
3 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
4 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report
5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company
6 MOSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
7 MOSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
22 February 2019
19
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
8 MOSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
9 MOSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
10 MOSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company
****************************************************************
****************************************************************
The associates of MOSL may have:
-
financial interest in the subject company
-
actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
-
received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
-
other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on
the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL
even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
-
acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
-
be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the
company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
-
received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
The associates of MOSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It
does not consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOSL also earns DP
income from clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the
research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent
of MOSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature.
The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty,
representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The
report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial
instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOSL will not treat recipients as
customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or
distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for
informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing
in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances.
The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this
document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this
document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views
expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade
securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of
the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and
should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make
modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from
time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to
perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a
separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of
information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or
may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or
entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,
regulation or which would subject MOSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all
jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither
the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue
or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates
or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse
and further agrees to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing
this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980
4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080
1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com
, Contact No.:022-38281085.
Registration details: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412.
AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual
Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd.
is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. *Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate
products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench. The existing registration no(s) of MOSL would be used until receipt of new MOFSL registration numbers.
22 February 2019
20