E
CO
S
COPE
3QFY19 GDP growth in line with expectations
Low inflation and weak growth in 2HFY19 to provide room for a rate cut
28 February 2019
The Economy Observer
Real GDP growth decelerated to a six-quarter-low of 6.6% in 3QFY19 – marginally better than our expectation of 6.4%,
but slightly below consensus of 6.7%. Government consumption expenditure (GCE) and private consumption
expenditure (PCE) grew slowly in 3QFY19, while investments (GCF) continued growing strongly in the quarter.
Real GVA grew by 6.3% (our estimate/consensus: 6.2%/6.5%), lower than +6.8% in the previous quarter, on account of
deceleration in agriculture growth. Non-agri-GVA growth remained unchanged from the previous quarter at 7.2%.
Investments grew 10.5% in the quarter on account of double-digit growth in the private sector (households + corporate)
capex; government capex declined sharply. Implied domestic savings declined to 27.0% of GDP in 9MFY19 from 27.5% in
the year ago period.
Government revised down its full-year FY19 GDP growth projection from 7.2% to 7% – exactly in line with our forecast.
This implies that it expects GDP growth at 6.5% in 4QFY19. We continue believing that a rate cut is highly likely in the
April policy meeting. With inflation at ~2% and growth at sub-7% in 2HFY19, the clout for a 50bp cut could rise.
I. GDP growth at six-quarter low…
II. …and GVA growth decelerates to 6.3%
Real GDP growth slows down to 6.6%…:
Real GDP growth slowed down sharply
to a six-quarter low of 6.6% YoY in 3QFY19 from 7% in 2QFY19. The number is
slightly better than our expectation of 6.4%, but marginally lower than market
consensus of 6.7%. Slower growth can be attributed to a deceleration in
consumption; investments continued growing strongly in the quarter.
…as consumption growth decelerates:
Growth in GCE decelerated sharply to
6.5% in 3QFY19 from 10.8% in 2Q – this alone dragged down growth in 3Q by
~60bp compared to the previous quarter
(Exhibit 2).
While growth in PCE slowed
down to 8.4% from 9.8% in 2QFY19, GCF grew in double-digits (+10.5%) in the
quarter. Net imports narrowed in the quarter, adding ~120bp to overall GDP
growth in 3Q compared to the previous quarter.
GVA growth slows to 6.3% YoY…:
Growth in real GVA decelerated to 6.3% in
3QFY19 from 6.8% in the preceding quarter
(Exhibit 5),
marginally higher than
our estimate of 6.2%, but below consensus of 6.5%. Slower growth was largely
on account of agriculture; growth in non-agri GVA remained unchanged from
the previous quarter at 7.2%.
…as agriculture growth decelerates sharply:
Agriculture growth decelerated to
2.7% in 3QFY19 from 4.2% in 2Q – this was the slowest pace of growth in 11
quarters. Industrial growth, however, improved to 7.1% from 6.7% in 2Q, largely
on account of an improvement in construction and mining activity. While
construction grew by 9.6% in 3Q – the fastest pace in at least 27 quarters,
mining output rose by 1.3% after declining by 2.1% in the previous quarter.
Manufacturing GVA growth slipped to a six-quarter low of 6.7%.
Growth in services slowed down to 7.2% from 7.4% in 2Q and the average of
7.7% in the last four quarters. Within services, growth in community social &
personal services eased sharply to 7.6% from 8.7% in 2Q, reflecting slower
growth in government expenditure.
Nikhil Gupta – Research Analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1555
Rahul Agrawal
– Research Analyst
(Rahul.Agrawal@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1559
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
III. Implied savings rate fell further in 9MFY19
Investments have risen by an average of 10.8% over the last six quarters. As a
result, the share of investments improved to 31.6% of GDP from 31.1% in
3QFY18
(Exhibit 8).
This is the highest rate in 10 quarters since 1QFY17.
Growth in investments outpaced that in consumption for the sixth consecutive
quarter
(Exhibit 3).
Importantly, investment growth was entirely driven by the
non-government sector; government capex declined sharply
(Exhibit 4).
Private
capex has grown in double-digits in five of the last six quarters.
Gross domestic (implied) savings rate (investments + net exports) declined to
27% of GDP in 9MFY19 from 27.5% in the year-ago period.
The government revised down its 1HFY19 headline GDP growth forecast to 7.5%
from 7.6% earlier. Revised data for 1HFY19 confirms that while PCE grew faster
(8.3% now v/s 7.8% earlier), GCE (8.7% v/s 10.1%) and GCF (9.7% v/s 10.7%)
grew slower than previously estimated.
Further, the government revised down its full-year FY19 GDP growth projection
from 7.2% to 7% now – this is exactly in line with our forecast. This implies that
it expects GDP growth to come in at 6.5% in 4QFY19.
We continue believing that a rate cut is highly likely in the April policy meeting.
With inflation at ~2% and growth at sub-7% in 2HFY19, the clout for a 50bp cut
could rise.
Exhibit 2: …net exports supported growth compared to
previous quarter
Discrepancy
Net exports
GCF
6.6
(2.2)
(0.8)
2QFY19
5.5
(0.6)
(1.9)
3QFY19
(pp)
GCE
PCE
(2)
(0.6)
(0.5)
(1)
0
1
2
0.2
(1.2)
1.6
IV. Government revises down FY19 projections
Exhibit 1: Contribution of investments to real GDP growth
improved in 3QFY19…
(pp)
10
8
6
4
2
0
(2)
(4)
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
4.0
(2.4)
Consumption
Discrepancy
3.9
2.0
4.1
6.6
(2.7)
GCF
GDP (% YoY)
0.5
3.2
4.7
(0.4)
3.3
Net exports
3.6
*as compared to 2QFY19Source: CSO, MoSL
Exhibit 3: Investment growth outpaced consumption growth
in last six quarters
16
12
8
4
0
Q3 FY15
Q3 FY16
Q3 FY17
Q3 FY18
Q3 FY19
* Private + government
# excluding valuables
Exhibit 4: Investment growth was entirely driven by non-
government sector in 3QFY19
30
Non-government*
Government
Consumption*
(% YoY)
Real investments#
10.4
8.1
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
3QFY16
3QFY17
3QFY18
3QFY19
Source: CSO, MoSL
* Corporate + household sector
(% YoY)
28 February 2019
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 5: Contribution to real GVA growth
Agriculture
9.0
7.5
6.0
4.5
3.0
1.5
0.0
(pp)
4.0
2.4
0.9
3QFY18
4.3
4.0
4.3
2.1
0.5
2QFY19
3.6
2.2
0.5
3QFY19
Industry*
Services
GVA (% YoY)
Exhibit 6: Contribution to GVA growth in 3QFY19*
Community etc
Finance etc
Trade etc
Construction
Electricity etc
Manufacturing
M&Q
Agriculture
* Over 2QFY19
(0.0)
(0.1)
0.1
0.0
(pp)
(0.5)
0.0
0.1
(0.1)
2.6
1.0
4QFY18
3.1
0.7
1QFY19
Source: CSO, MoSL
Source: CSO, MoSL
Exhibit 7: GVA/GDP and key components (YoY %)
Agriculture etc.
Industry
Mining & quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity
Construction
Services
Trade, hotels etc.
Finance, insurance etc.
Community etc.
GVA at basic prices
Private cons exp (PCE)
Govt. cons exp (GCE)
Gross Cap For (GCF)
Gross Fixed Cap Formation
Net exports
Exports
Less:
Imports
Discrepancies
GDP at market price
9MFY17
6.3
7.5
6.0
8.2
9.9
5.9
8.3
7.6
8.5
9.2
7.8
9.7
4.0
5.9
10.8
4.3
3.6
37.2
8.4
9MFY18
5.0
5.9
5.1
5.9
8.6
5.6
8.1
7.8
6.2
11.9
6.9
7.0
13.2
9.8
8.4
5.4
18.1
66.0
6.8
% YoY
9MFY19
3QFY18
5.0
4.6
5.9
8.0
5.1
4.5
5.9
8.6
8.6
7.5
5.6
8.0
8.1
8.0
7.8
8.3
6.2
6.8
11.9
9.2
6.9
7.3
8.4
5.0
8.0
10.8
10.0
12.5
10.8
12.2
13.3
5.3
15.6
15.8
(27.6)
740.0
7.2
7.7
2QFY19
4.2
6.7
(2.1)
6.9
8.7
8.5
7.4
6.9
7.2
8.7
6.8
9.8
10.8
9.9
10.2
13.9
21.4
(21.2)
7.0
Contribution to GDP/GVA growth (pp)
3QFY19
3QFY18
2QFY19
3QFY19
2.7
0.9
0.5
0.5
7.1
2.4
2.1
2.2
1.3
0.1
(0.1)
0.0
6.7
1.5
1.3
1.2
8.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
9.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
7.2
4.0
4.3
3.6
6.9
1.5
1.3
1.3
7.3
1.3
1.9
1.4
7.6
1.2
1.1
1.0
6.3
7.3
6.8
6.3
8.4
3.0
5.4
4.9
6.5
1.0
1.2
0.6
10.5
4.1
3.3
3.6
10.6
3.7
3.2
3.4
(2.4)
(2.2)
(0.6)
14.6
1.1
2.8
2.9
14.7
3.5
5.0
3.5
(90.6)
2.0
(0.8)
(1.9)
6.6
7.7
7.0
6.6
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), MoSL
Exhibit 8: Domestic savings fell further to 27% in 9MFY19
Implied Savings
Net Imports
Gross Investments
Exhibit 9: Growth was aided by private spending in 3QFY19
25
20
Private spending
Government spending
(% of GDP)
7.0
3.5
3.4
2.7
(% YoY)
2.1
3.6
4.1
15
10
31.6
30.7
31.1
29.2
28.3
27.5
27.0
5
0
Q3 FY15
Q3 FY16
Q3 FY17
Q3 FY18
Q3 FY19
Source: CSO, MOSL
9MFY13 9MFY14 9MFY15 9MFY16 9MFY17 9MFY18 9MFY19
Implied savings = Investments – Net imports of goods & services
28 February 2019
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
NOTES
28 February 2019
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the
inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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****************************************************************
***************
28 February 2019
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
*************************************************
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is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. *Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate
products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench. The existing registration no(s) of MOSL would be used until receipt of new MOFSL registration numbers.
28 February 2019
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