11 March 2019
Metals Weekly
BSE Metals Index v/s Sensex
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Indexed to 100 on 4 Mar 2019
Investors are advised to refer through
important disclosures made at the last
page of the Research Report.
Ø
Indian steel:
Long product (TMT Mumbai) prices were lower by ~2%
WoW. Sponge iron prices declined ~5% WoW, while scrap prices
decreased ~2% WoW. Iron ore prices remained unchanged. Pellet prices
were down ~2% WoW. Domestic HRC prices were up ~2% WoW. Export
price offers were higher, while import offers were unchanged.
Ø
Raw materials:
Iron ore prices (China CFR) were down ~1% WoW. Thermal
coal prices were unchanged. Coking coal prices increased ~1% WoW.
China’s pellet import prices decreased ~2% WoW. Chinese graphite
electrode prices were ~7% lower.
Ø
Europe:
HRC prices were slightly lower. CIS HRC export prices were
unchanged WoW. Rotterdam scrap prices were up ~4% WoW.
Ø
China steel prices:
Chinese HRC prices were down ~1% WoW, while Rebar
prices were lower by ~2%. Export prices for rebar and HRC were higher by
~1% WoW.
Ø
Base metals:
Aluminum (cash LME) prices were down by ~1% WoW.
Alumina prices were up ~1% WoW. Copper (cash LME) prices were down
~3% WoW. Zinc (cash LME) prices were down ~5% WoW. Lead (cash LME)
prices declined ~4% WoW. Brent crude prices were up ~1% WoW.
Indian steel prices largely stable; base metal prices decline
Research Analyst: Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22
6129 1523
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com) /
Aniket Mittal
(Aniket.Mittal@MotilalOswal.com)
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Metals Weekly
Contents
Page No.
Ferrous
India
European Union
China
Other regions
Steel raw material
Ferro alloys
3-10
3,4 & 5
6
7
8&9
10, 11
12
Non-ferrous
Aluminum
Copper
Zinc
Lead
Crude Oil
Commodity curve analysis
China non-ferrous trade data
13-20
13
15
16
17
18
19
20
Key indicators
Industrial production growth across the globe
BSE announcements
Metals valuation matrix
Metals stock performance
21-22
23
24
25
26
11 March 2019
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Metals Weekly
Ferrous
HRC prices were up
INR800/t WoW to
INR42,800/t
Ferrous
INDIAN DOMESTIC MARKET
HRC prices (INR/T, excl. GST)
50,500
46,000
41,500
37,000
32,500
Spot
Quaterly average
Avg. is down INR4078 QoQ
Long products (TMT
Mumbai) prices were
down 1.6% WoW to
INR38,000/t.
Rebar prices (INR/T, exl. GST)
44,500
41,500
38,500
35,500
32,500
29,500
Spot
Avg. is up INR201 QoQ
Quaterly average
Sponge iron (made from lumps) prices & spreads to Rebar (INR/T, excl. GST)
Sponge iron prices were
down 4.7% to INR20,300/t.
27,000
24,000
21,000
18,000
Coal based Sponge (Raipur) - LHS
Sprea ds (Rebar – 1.25x s ponge) - RHS
15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000
India: Integrated steel mills spreads (Import parity HRC – 1xcoking coal)
Indian integrated steel mills spreads (INR/t)
43,000
39,000
35,000
31,000
27,000
23,000
19,000
15,000
Source: SteelMint, WSA, MOSL
11 March 2019
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Metals Weekly
Ferrous
Ferrous
INDIA
Scrap Mandi & spreads to Rebar (INR/t)
Scrap (Mandi) - LHS
Sprea ds (Rebar – 1.1x s cra p) - RHS
Scrap prices were down
2.3% WoW to INR25,400/t.
32,000
29,000
26,000
23,000
20,000
18,000
15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000
Iron ore lumps (INR/t)
Iron ore lump prices were
unchanged.
7,500
6,500
5,500
4,500
3,500
2,500
1,500
NMDC 6-40mm (CG)
Lumps 5-18 (Odisha)
Iron ore fines (INR/t) ex mine
Iron ore fines prices were
unchanged.
4,100
3,700
3,300
2,900
2,500
2,100
1,700
1,300
Rungta Fines 63% (Odisha, incl. royalty)
NMDC Fines, ex-royalty
Pellet (Barbil) INR/t
Pellet prices were down
1.7% to INR5,900/t.
9,800
8,800
7,800
6,800
5,800
4,800
3,800
2,800
Pellet (Barbil)
Source: SteelMint, WSA, MOSL
11 March 2019
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Metals Weekly
India Monthly steel trends
Steel consumption (mt) and growth (trailing 12-month) YoY %
India steel demand grew
3.9% YoY in February 2019.
Cons. (mt)
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
Trailing 12m Growth (%)
Steel imports and exports - kt
India was a marginal net
exporter of steel in
February 2019.
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
Net steel imports (kt)
Sponge iron production - kt
Sponge iron production
was down ~ 3% YoY to
2.74mt in January 2019.
Sponge iron production - kt
Crude steel production & finished steel inventories - mt
Crude steel production - mt
Finished steel inventories - mt
Crude steel production
was up 4.8% YoY
in February 2019.
Inventories lowered
0.2mt MoM to 9.4mt
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
Source: JPC
11 March 2019
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Metals Weekly
European Union
European HRC prices (EUR/ton)
South Europe HRC steel
prices were slightly lower
at EUR480/t.
North Europe HRC
630
570
510
450
390
South Europe HRC
Shredded scrap prices (USD/t) fob Rotterdam
Rotterdam scrap prices
were up 4.2% WoW to
USD301/t.
395
355
315
275
235
195
155
European wire rods southern region (Euro/t)
540
500
460
420
380
340
300
South Europe wire rod
prices were unchanged
WoW.
Spreads ( HRC-1.6xiron ore-0.7xcoking coal) – (USD/t)
450
395
340
285
230
175
120
EU
China
EU steel product spreads
lowered.
Source: Bloomberg, WSA, MOSL
11 March 2019
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Metals Weekly
China
China domestic prices (USD/ton)
Chinese local rebar and
HRC prices were slightly
lower.
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
Rebar
HRC
Steel spreads (Steel price – 1.6x iron ore – 0.55x coke) for Chinese producers
Chinese steel product
Rebar spreads were lower.
490
410
330
250
170
90
HRC
Rebar
Steel trade (m ton)
Chinese steel exports were
down ~7% YoY to 4.5mt in
February 2019.
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Exports
Imports - rhs
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
Steel inventories in main China cities (m tons)
7
6
Steel inventories in China
were at 5.06mt.
5
4
3
2
11 March 2019
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Metals Weekly
Other regions
CIS HRC export prices (USD/ton) fob basis
CIS export HRC prices
unchanged at USD525/t.
CIS Exports (HRC)
650
600
550
500
450
400
Turkish export billets (USD/ton)
640
590
540
490
440
390
Turkish Exp Billets
Electrode prices in China for High Power Diameter 400 (USD/ton)
China H.P Diameter 400 (USD/t)
Prices were down 7.5%
WoW.
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
EAF spreads (Turkish steel billet price – Rotterdam scrap prices) in USD/t
280
230
180
130
80
30
Billet spreads (USD/t)
Source: WSA, Bloomberg, MOSL
11 March 2019
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Metals Weekly
Other regions
Global steel production from recycled steel - kt (Crude steel prod – BF production*0.96)
Global steel production
from recycled steel
increased 9% YoY in
November 2018.
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Steel from recycled steel (kt)
growth - %
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
North America: Monthly crude steel production
North America
YoY (%)
15.0
7.5
0.0
-7.5
-15.0
US steel production
increased 7.3% YoY to
10.5mt in January 2019.
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
Global: Monthly crude steel production
Global crude steel
production increased 1%
YoY to 146.7mt in January
2019.
160
150
140
130
120
Global
YoY (%)
13
10
7
4
1
-2
-5
-8
Global: Monthly crude steel capacity utilization
82
Capacity Utilization
Capacity utilization improved
460bps YoY to 77.5% in July
2018.
78
74
70
66
62
Source: Bloomberg, WSA, MOSL
11 March 2019
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Metals Weekly
Steel raw materials
Import price of 62% grade iron-ore fines in China (USD/ton)
CIF
FOB
Iron ore (China cfr) prices
were down 1% WoW.
115
85
55
25
Pellet China cfr (USD/ton)
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Iron ore pellet cfr China - USD/t
China iron-ore production and imports (m tons)
China iron ore imports
decreased 9% YoY to
91.3mt in January 2019.
130
105
80
55
30
Ore Imports
Ore Prod
Pig iron prod (RHS)
76
68
60
52
44
China’s iron-ore inventories (mt)
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
China iron ore inventories
increased WoW to
143.5mt.
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
11 March 2019
10
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Metals Weekly
Steel raw materials
Freight rates to China (USD/ton)
Brazil
Australia
India
Freight rates were
unchanged WoW.
24
16
8
0
Coal price index
Richards Bay thermal coal
prices were at USD83/t
Ri chards Bay Steam Coal
105
90
75
60
45
Coke price index (fob China)
China coke export spot (LHS)
355
330
305
280
255
230
Coking coal (USD/t)
320
270
Spot coking coal (fob Australia)
Coking coal prices were up
0.7% WoW.
220
170
120
70
11 March 2019
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Metals Weekly
Ferro alloys
China’s imports of manganese ore and concentrate
3,500
2,900
2,300
1,700
1,100
500
Imports
Prices (RHS)
290
230
170
110
50
Chrome ore FOB spot prices
320
270
220
170
120
70
42% Chrome cif China
Ferro chrome CIF prices (CNY/t)
10,500
9,000
7,500
6,000
4,500
Fe Chrome 50% Cr China
Silico Manganese prices
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
Silico Manganese in warehouses in Pittsburg USA
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
11 March 2019
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Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Non-ferrous
Aluminum
2,600
2,450
2,300
2,150
2,000
1,850
1,700
LME inventories and spot prices
Inventories (RHS)
Spot
2.0
1.4
0.8
0.2
Aluminum (cash LME) was
down ~1% WoW to
USD1,848/t.
Global primary aluminum monthly production and YoY growth
Global aluminum
production was up 5.9%
YoY to 5.13mt in
Aug 2018.
Production
5,400
4,800
4,200
3,600
3,000
YoY
22.0
17.0
12.0
7.0
2.0
-3.0
-8.0
-13.0
Aluminum: SHFE Vs LME arbitrage (USD/T)
LME and SHFE arbitrage is
unfavorable.
250
150
50
-50
-150
-250
-350
-450
-550
-650
India: Company-wise primary aluminum monthly production
Hindalco
Balco
Nalco
VED - JSG
11 March 2019
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Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Aluminum
All-in-aluminum was
at USD2,275/t.
3,200
2,400
1,600
800
0
Aluminum raw material and power cost for marginal producer in USA (USD/t)
CPC
Alumina
Power
LME+Spot
CPC US (USD/t)
600
500
400
300
200
Alumina (USD/t)
790
Alumina was at
USD391.4/t.
690
590
490
390
290
190
Industrial Power US (Lousiana) per mwh
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
Source: Bloomberg, Industry, MOSL
11 March 2019
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Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Copper
LME inventories and prices
Inventories (RHS)
Spot
7,850
7,250
6,650
6,050
5,450
4,850
4,250
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Copper (cash LME) prices
were down 2.6% WoW to
USD6,398/t.
Global refined copper monthly production and YoY growth
2.2
Production
YoY - RHS
20.0
13.5
7.0
0.5
-6.0
-12.5
Global copper production
declined 2.5% YoY to
1.943mt in Aug 2018.
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
China: Refined copper monthly production and YoY growth
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
Production
YoY - RHS
34
23
12
1
-10
Copper: Spot TCRC (USc/lb)
35.0
32.0
29.0
26.0
23.0
20.0
17.0
11 March 2019
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Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Zinc
Zinc (cash LME) was down
~4.7% WoW to USD2,706/t
LME inventories and prices
Inventories (RHS)
3,800
3,500
3,200
2,900
2,600
2,300
2,000
Spot
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Global refined zinc monthly production and YoY growth
Production
YoY growth (RHS)
12.0
8.0
4.0
0.0
-4.0
-8.0
Global zinc production
declined 5% YoY to
1.067mt in Aug 2018.
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
China: Refined zinc monthly production and YoY growth
Production
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
YoY growth (RHS)
20
10
0
-10
-20
Zinc: Global metal surplus (deficit) – kt
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
11 March 2019
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Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Lead
Lead (cash LME) was down
3.7% WoW to USD2,072/t.
LME inventories and prices
2,750
2,550
2,350
2,150
1,950
1,750
1,550
Inventories (RHS)
Spot
0.18
0.16
0.13
0.11
0.08
Global refined lead monthly production and YoY growth
1.1
1.0
Production
YoY - RHS
14
Refined lead production
increased 2.7% YoY to
951kt in Aug 2018.
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
-2
-18
China: Refined lead monthly production and YoY growth
0.5
0.4
0
0.3
0.2
-20
Production
YoY - RHS
20
India: Company-wise refined lead monthly production
HZL
:
19 19
18
18 16
17
16
15
14
14
14 13 15 14
13 14 13 12 14
12 12
12 13
12
10
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
11 March 2019
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Crude Oil
Brent crude oil price (USD/bbl)
Brent (crude oil) was
up ~1% WoW to
USD65.7/bbl.
Brent Crude
85.0
75.0
65.0
55.0
45.0
35.0
Global crude oil quarterly supply (mbpd)
Non-OPEC supply
OPEC Supply
Global crude oil surplus/(deficit) - mbpd
surplus/(deficit)
2.8
1.9 1.8
-
(0.1)
(0.1)
(0.3)
(0.5) (0.4)
(0.9)
(1.0)
(1.0)
(0.4)
1.6
1.1
1.5 1.8
1.5
0.1
(0.1)
(1.1)
0.1
(0.2) (0.3)
(0.3)
2.1
1.6
Crude oil futures (USD/bbl)
70
65
60
55
Current
1-week ago
3-month ago
:
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
11 March 2019
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Metals Weekly
Commodity forward curves
LME aluminum (USD/ton)
2,400
2,300
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800
Current
1-week ago
3-month ago
LME copper (USD/ton)
6,600
6,400
6,200
6,000
Current
1-week ago
3-month ago
LME zinc futures (USD/ton)
3,000
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
Current
1-week ago
3-month ago
Aluminum metal US spot premium (USD/ton)
665
540
415
290
165
40
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
11 March 2019
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China non-ferrous trade data
China’s aluminum trade ('000 tons)
Aluminum exports were
down 7% YoY to 343kt in
January 2019.
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Imports
Exports
China’s refined copper trade ('000 tons)
500
400
300
200
100
0
Imports
Exports
China’s refined zinc trade ('000 tons)
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Export
Import
China’s alumina imports ('000 tons)
600
Chinese alumina imports
increased 14% YoY to 80kt
in January 2019.
400
200
0
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
11 March 2019
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Key indicators
China new loan growth (Yuan b)
3,300
2,700
2,100
1,500
900
300
China: PMI
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
Mfg PMI
Steel PMI
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
China: Fixed asset investment growth (%)
Fixed asset investment
growth was at 5.9% YoY
in December.
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
Currency movement with respect to the rupee
75
71
67
63
59
55
51
USD (LHS)
GBP
EURO
110
101
92
83
74
65
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
11 March 2019
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Key indicators (Contd...)
China Energy Production: Electricity (b kwh)
Electricity
YoY (%, RHS)
32
17
2
-13
China electricity
generation increased 8.8%
YoY in Dec 2018.
650
580
510
440
370
300
China Monthly Trade YoY (%)
50
30
10
-10
-30
Import
Export
China Price Index YoY (%)
8
5
2
-1
-4
-7
PPI
CPI
China GDP YoY (%)
7.2
China’s GDP growth was
6.4% in 3QCY18.
6.9
6.6
6.3
6.0
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
11 March 2019
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Industrial production growth
The UK and the USA (%)
6
3
0
-3
-6
UK
USA
Japan (%)
10
5
0
-5
-10
European Union (%)
8
2
-4
-10
France
Germany
Italy
BRIC (%)
Russia
13
6
-1
-8
-15
Brazil
India
China
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
11 March 2019
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Stock exchange announcements
NMDC:
NMDC’s iron ore production for the month of February 2019 decreased 3.2%
YoY to 3.34mt. Sales volume
increased
17.2% YoY to 3.55mt.
11 March 2019
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Metals
Valuation Matrix
Valuations: Indian Companies
Rating
Steel
Ta ta Steel
JSW Steel
JSPL
SAIL
Non-Ferrous
Hi nda l co
Na l co
Veda nta
Ra i n Ind.*
Mining
Coa l Indi a
Hi ndus ta n Zi nc
NMDC
*CY reporti ng
Sel l
Buy
Buy
Neutra l
Buy
Buy
Sel l
Buy
Buy
Neutra l
Buy
Price
(INR)
521
290
167
55
201
57
176
107
235
270
109
MCAP
(USD M)
7,119
9,865
2,152
3,171
5,829
2,073
7,341
506
20,905
16,051
6,069
FY18
69.5
23.4
-8.5
0.3
18.9
5.1
20.4
23.7
19.2
21.1
13.1
EPS
FY19E
88.7
30.6
2.3
6.3
26.6
8.9
13.8
20.4
27.4
19.5
13.6
FY20E
72.0
20.7
3.8
6.1
29.0
5.1
21.5
13.7
29.0
23.1
10.1
P/E (x)
FY19E FY20E
5.9
9.5
72.6
8.7
7.5
6.4
12.7
5.2
8.6
13.9
8.0
7.2
14.0
44.5
9.0
6.9
11.1
8.2
7.8
8.1
11.7
10.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY19E FY20E
6.0
6.8
6.8
6.8
5.4
2.9
6.2
5.1
3.9
8.7
4.5
6.9
8.2
6.4
6.3
5.1
5.5
4.7
6.2
4.0
7.0
6.2
P/B(x)
FY19E FY20E
1.0
2.2
0.5
0.6
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.8
1.1
2.0
0.5
0.5
0.9
1.1
1.0
0.8
7.1
6.5
3.4
2.9
1.3
1.3
Source: MOSL
Valuations: Global Companies
Company
Mining
BHP-Bi l l i ton
FMG
Ri o Ti nto
Va l e
Teck Res ources
Angl o Ameri ca n
STEEL
Arcel or Mi tta l
Pos co
US Steel
Nucor
JFE
Gerda u
Anga ng
Ali - Smelting
Al coa
Hydro
Rus a l
Ali - Rolled
Arconi cs
Cons tel l i um
BBG
CODE
BHP AU
FMG AU
RIO AU
Va l e US
TCK US
AAL LN
MT NA
005490 KS
X US
NUE US
5411 JT
GGBR4 BZ
000898 CH
AA US
NHY NO
486 HK
ARNC US
CSTM US
Currency
AUD
AUD
AUD
USD
USD
GBp
EUR
k KRW
USD
USD
JPY
BRL
CNY
USD
NOK
HKD
USD
USD
PRICE
37
7
91
49
22
1,987
19
250
19
58
1,849
15
6
27
34
4
18
8
MCAP
(US$ M)
123,011
13,862
91,199
66,744
12,301
33,320
21,302
19,030
3,335
17,648
10,285
6,153
6,087
4,975
7,959
6,832
8,967
1,118
PE (x)
CUR YR
NXT YR
13.7
7.5
11.5
9.5
8.1
9.6
5.3
7.1
6.7
9.5
6.8
8.9
5.4
14.1
13.4
3.6
11.4
7.4
13.8
8.1
13.2
7.0
9.1
10.6
5.4
6.7
7.4
10.2
7.4
8.4
7.3
8.7
9.0
3.1
9.7
5.6
EV/EBITDA(x)
CUR YR
NXT YR
5.9
4.1
5.2
4.9
4.2
4.5
3.8
4.2
3.6
6.1
6.7
5.3
4.1
3.3
5.4
7.6
6.2
5.5
6.0
4.3
5.5
4.5
4.5
4.8
3.9
4.0
3.7
6.5
6.6
5.1
5.1
3.2
4.2
6.7
5.7
4.9
P/BV (x)
CY18
na
na
na
1.6
0.7
na
0.5
0.5
0.8
1.7
na
1.1
0.8
0.9
0.8
1.2
na
97.3
11 March 2019
25
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Metals Weekly
Metals Stock
Performance
Among large-cap companies, JSPL
was the best relative performer.
Metals stock performance on absolute and relative basis (%)
Months
Steel
Ta ta Steel
SAIL
JSW Steel
JSPL
NMDC
Non-ferrous
Veda nta
Hi ndus ta n Zi nc
Na l co
Hi nda l co
Mid Caps
Monnet Is pa t
Goda wa ri
Sa rda Energy
Ta ta Sponge
Adhuni k Meta l i ks
Bhus ha n Steel
Ja i Ba l a ji
Ra i n Indus tri es
Pra ka s h Indus tri es
SENSEX
1
9.3
17.8
4.8
25.9
17.1
6.1
4.9
-1.6
-4.6
-8.0
31.8
21.0
-3.7
16.1
7.7
7.9
3.0
11.0
0.1
Absolute Perf (%)
3
6
-0.6
0.8
-6.0
8.8
19.2
-11.8
-0.7
-9.9
-10.3
-15.9
-4.7
21.4
-2.7
-26.0
13.4
16.2
-16.3
14.4
3.8
-14.5
-30.1
-28.0
-23.3
-1.5
-24.9
-11.6
-25.5
-18.7
-29.7
-45.8
-22.4
-20.5
-37.8
4.3
105.9
-44.9
-35.7
-3.5
12
-20.0
-28.0
-0.9
-30.5
-11.5
-44.1
-14.8
-11.0
-12.2
-57.7
-37.0
-29.3
-26.9
-53.0
-36.2
43.6
-72.2
-48.4
10.0
Relative Perf to Sensex (%)
1
3
6
12
9.2
17.6
4.7
25.8
16.9
5.9
4.7
-1.8
-4.8
-8.1
31.6
20.9
-3.8
15.9
7.5
7.8
2.8
10.9
-
-4.4
-3.1
-9.8
4.9
15.4
-15.6
-4.5
-13.8
-14.2
-19.7
-8.6
17.5
-6.5
-29.9
9.5
12.3
-20.1
10.5
-
-10.9
-26.6
-24.4
-19.8
2.1
-21.4
-8.1
-21.9
-15.1
-26.2
-42.3
-18.8
-16.9
-34.3
7.9
109.5
-41.3
-32.2
-
-30.0
-38.0
-10.8
-40.5
-21.5
-54.1
-24.8
-21.0
-22.2
-67.7
-46.9
-39.3
-36.9
-63.0
-46.1
33.6
-82.1
-58.3
-
Among mid-cap companies,
Godawari was the best relative
performer over one month.
Global Metals stock performance on absolute basis (%)
1week
1month
-4.3
4.2
4.0
8.3
0.9
-16.6
-5.8
-9.3
4.4
-7.8
-3.5
-4.3
-20.6
0.7
-12.0
-7.7
7.3
4.4
Absolute Perf (%)
3 months
6 months
17.3
17.5
-6.9
60.5
27.7
-12.5
-2.3
-1.3
7.3
0.6
-4.8
-3.6
-23.6
-3.8
-5.9
-9.5
57.8
10.0
15.6
14.5
-0.2
80.6
29.9
-34.5
-9.2
-24.7
-2.3
-19.4
-22.2
-10.8
-37.2
-27.9
2.7
-37.4
77.5
-3.5
7 months
11.6
28.0
-0.7
34.9
16.4
-56.6
-14.5
-29.6
-21.3
-30.3
-18.9
-18.3
-42.8
-40.5
-21.9
-43.5
-27.7
-33.3
12 months
11.6
28.0
-0.7
34.9
16.4
-56.6
-14.5
-29.6
-21.3
-30.3
-18.9
-18.3
-42.8
-40.5
-21.9
-43.5
-27.7
-33.3
Among global mining companies,
FMG was the best relative
performer over one week.
Among global steel majors,
Voest Alpine was the best
relative performer.
Among the global aluminum,
Rusal was the best
relative performer
Mining
Ri o Ti nto
BHP Bi l l i ton
Va l e
FMG
Angl o Ameri ca n
Steel
US Steel
Nucor
Arcel or Mi tta l
Anga ng
Pos co
JFE Hol di ngs
Ni ppon
Thys s en Krupp
Voes t Al pi ne
Gerda u
Aluminium
Al coa
Rus a l
Cha l co
-5.4
-0.8
1.6
8.7
-0.6
-13.7
-4.3
-7.9
-3.0
-5.1
-2.8
-2.7
-7.3
-2.7
-3.8
-9.6
-5.6
-6.7
11 March 2019
26
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Metals Weekly
NOTES
11 March 2019
27
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
Metals Weekly
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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11 March 2019
28