March 2018
March 2019
Economy |
1QCY19 Chart Book
Russia
India
China
South
Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Brazil
South Africa
Malaysia
Indonesia
Nikhil Gupta – Research Analyst (Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5405
Yaswi Agarwal– Research Analyst (Yaswi.Agarwal@motilaloswal.com); 91 22 5036 4196
Investors are advised to refer to important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report
March 2019

1QCY19: India vis-à-vis other emerging markets
After witnessing some stabilization in 4QCY18, emerging markets (EMs) started 2019 on a
positive note with benchmark equity indices recouping losses in 1QCY19. The benchmark
bond yield declined in most EMs; also, most EM currencies strengthened against the USD. On
the macro front, inflation stayed in check and fiscal deficit narrowed in most EMs. The
external sector, however, continues to be a worry as foreign trade witnessed a decline in the
initial months of 2019; current account balances worsened in most EMs.
This quarterly publication provides a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic conditions
in the world’s 10 major EMs. Quite often, these economies are clubbed together as a basket,
especially in terms of portfolio allocation.
The 10 EMs included in this publication are:
1. Brazil (BR), 2. China (CN), 3. India (IN), 4. Indonesia (ID), 5. South Korea (KR), 6. Malaysia
(MY), 7. Russia (RU), 8. South Africa (SA), 9. Taiwan (TW), 10. Thailand (TH).
March 2019
2

1QCY19: Key highlights
IMF’s Macro Projections: IN to accelerate in 2019; CN to weaken
Macro risk-return matrix improved for IN and RU in 2018 vis-à-vis 2017
Debt-to-GDP ratio: RU and IN, the only two nations to deleverage in 3QCY18
GDP: Despite weaker growth in 4QCY18, IN (and ID) grew faster in CY18
Bank credit picked up in most EMs, but moderated in TH
Equity
Policy rates: Only IN cut rates in the past three months
Inflation: No concerns in most EMs
Central Bank: Balance sheet has been stable in the recent past
Fiscal deficit: Narrowed in most EMs over the past four quarters
Bonds
Currency
External Vulnerability: Deterioration visible across EMs
Trade: Export growth has weakened in most EMs in 2019
Monthly Calendar: April
2019,
May
2019
and June
2019
All data as on 22
nd
March 2019
March 2019
3

IMF’s Macro Projections: IN to accelerate in 2019; CN to weaken
Real GDP growth (%)
2017
Brazil (BR)
China (CN)
India (IN)
Indonesia (ID)
Korea (KR)
Malaysia (MY)
Russia (RU)
South Africa (SA)
Taiwan (TW)
Thailand (TH)
1.0
6.9
6.7
5.1
3.1
5.9
1.5
1.3
2.9
3.9
CPI inflation* (%)
2017
3.4
1.6
3.6
3.8
1.9
3.8
3.7
5.3
1.1
0.7
Fiscal balance#
(% of GDP)
2017
(7.8)
(3.9)
(7.2)
(2.3)
2.3
(2.9)
(1.5)
(4.6)
(2.0)
(0.9)
Current account balance
(% of GDP)
2019
(8.0)
(4.4)
(6.5)
(1.8)
1.5
(2.6)
1.8
(4.5)
(1.9)
(0.5)
2018
1.4
6.6
7.3
5.1
2.8
4.7
1.7
0.8
2.7
4.6
2019
2.4
6.2
7.4
5.1
2.6
4.6
1.8
1.4
2.4
3.9
2018
3.7
2.2
4.7
3.4
1.5
1.0
2.8
4.8
1.5
0.9
2019
4.2
2.4
4.9
3.8
1.8
2.3
5.1
5.3
1.3
0.9
2018
(8.6)
(4.1)
(6.6)
(2.2)
2.3
(2.7)
1.6
(4.6)
(1.9)
(0.6)
2017
(0.5)
1.4
(1.9)
(1.7)
5.1
3.0
2.2
(2.5)
14.5
11.2
2018
(1.3)
0.7
(3.0)
(2.4)
5.0
2.9
6.2
(3.2)
13.8
9.1
2019
(1.6)
0.7
(2.5)
(2.4)
4.7
2.3
5.2
(3.5)
13.6
8.1
*CPI inflation is the average for the full year
# For General government (Center + States/Local/Provinces)
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), MOSL
March 2019
4

EM equities recovered losses in 1QCY19; CN and BR best performers
EM equities recovered loses in 1QCY19, Chinese equities outperformed others in the past three months…
120
110
100
90
80
70
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S Africa
108
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Taiwan
Thailand
Data rebased to 22
nd
March , 2018
Data rebased to 22
nd
March, 2018
…though Brazil was the best performer over the past 6-12 months
(% growth)
BOVESPA (BR)
RTS (RU)
Nifty 50 (IN)
Shanghai Composite (CN)
JSE Top40 (SA)
JCI (ID)
KOSPI (KR)
KLCI (MY)
TWSE Index (TW)
SET Index (TH)
1-month
15.4
(6.7)
10.4
(5.3)
(1.7)
(1.3)
(9.7)
(8.8)
(1.4)
(9.6)
3-month
16.7
12.6
6.6
23.1
10.6
5.6
5.7
1.2
9.0
1.4
6-month
25.9
5.6
2.9
10.7
(1.2)
9.3
(6.8)
(6.6)
(4.2)
(7.9)
12-month
18.0
(3.6)
13.3
(5.1)
(0.3)
4.1
(12.7)
(9.9)
(4.5)
(10.1)
Market cap-to-GDP rose across EMs in 4QCY18
Russia
Indonesia
Brazil
China
India
South Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
South Africa
Taiwan
Data for Dec’18
37.1
49.7
52.6
52.8
Market cap as % of GDP
79.4
90.1
100.0
116.1
126.9
194.2
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
Major benchmark equity index in all countries
March 2019
5

Macro risk-return matrix improved for IN and RU in 2018 vis-à-vis 2017
India and Russia have improved, while Taiwan and Malaysia witnessed deterioration
8
7
IN
CN
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
(1)
(14)
(12)
(10)
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
TH
ID
MY
KR
TW
RU
BR
SA
Macro Vulnerability Index (MVI) *
The darker color represents the average of the past four quarters (1QCY18-4QCY18), while the faded color is for the corresponding year ago period (1QCY17-
4QCY17).
* Macro-Vulnerability Index (MVI) = Inflation + Fiscal Deficit + CAD
The higher the MVI, the higher the macro risk
Change in MVI is more important than the level of MVI for financial markets
March 2019
Source: CEIC, Various national sources, MOSL

Debt-to-GDP ratio: RU and IN, the only two nations to deleverage in 3QCY18
While Brazil and India have the highest government debt…
Russia
Indonesia
Thailand
Korea
China
Malaysia
S Africa
India
Brazil
Data for 3Q 2018
…private non-financial sector’s leverage is among the least for them
Government debt
(% of GDP)
Indonesia
India
Russia
Brazil
40.3
Private non-financial debt*
(% of GDP)
14.7
29.8
33.8
39.1
48.3
51.8
57.7
57.0
63.8
67.7
72.3
116.1
S Africa
Thailand
Malaysia
135.4
198.1
204.4
*includes household and non-financial corporate debt
68.4
86.3
Source: Bank of International Settlements (BIS), MOSL
Korea
China
Data for 3Q 2018
Russia and India have de-leveraged in 3QCY18 vis-à-vis 3QCY17, but Korea, South Africa and Brazil have added debt
Change in Total Debt/GDP ratio
Total Debt/GDP
237
154
253
187
125
150
70
1.4
(0.3)
India
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
S Africa
130
79
3.3
(1.3)
Russia
Korea
1.1
2.2
4.6
3.3
0.3
Brazil
China
Total debt = Government + Non-financial private sector
Data for Taiwan is not available
March 2019
7

GDP: Despite weaker growth in 4QCY18, IN (and ID) grew faster in CY18
India’s growth eased but remained highest among BRICs in 4QCY18
(% YoY)
10
6
2
-2
-6
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S Africa
Malaysia, Thailand and Korea rebounded; Taiwan weakened in 4QCY18
(% YoY)
Indonesia
Taiwan
Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
6.6
6.4
1.6
1.1
0.2
8
6
4
3
1
(1)
5.2
4.7
3.7
3.1
1.9
Source: CEIC, Various national sources, MOSL
India and Indonesia — the only two economies with a faster growth in 2018
(% YoY)
Brazil (BR)
China (CN)
India (IN)
Indonesia (ID)
Korea (KR)
Malaysia (MY)
Russia (RU)
South Africa (SA)
Taiwan (TW)
Thailand (TH)
4Q 2016
(2.3)
6.8
7.5
4.9
2.6
4.5
3.0
0.4
0.8
3.1
1Q 2017
0.1
6.8
7.0
5.0
2.9
5.6
3.0
0.6
1.0
3.5
2Q 2017
0.6
6.8
6.0
5.0
2.8
5.8
2.6
2.5
1.0
4.2
3Q 2017
1.4
6.7
6.8
5.1
3.8
6.2
3.4
2.2
1.4
4.5
4Q 2017
2.2
6.7
7.7
5.2
2.8
5.9
3.4
0.9
2.2
3.9
1Q 2018
1.2
6.8
8.1
5.1
2.8
5.4
3.3
1.3
1.6
4.9
2Q 2018
0.9
6.7
8.0
5.3
2.8
4.5
3.1
1.9
0.7
4.6
3Q 2018
1.3
6.5
7.0
5.2
2.0
4.4
2.3
1.5
0.7
3.2
4Q 2018
1.1
6.4
6.6
5.2
3.1
4.7
1.9
1.6
0.2
3.7
2017
1.3
6.8
7.1
5.1
3.0
5.8
3.2
1.7
1.6
4.4
2018
1.1
6.6
7.4
5.2
2.7
4.7
2.6
1.6
0.8
4.1
March 2019
8

Bank credit picked up in most EMs, but moderated in TH
Bank credit is on an upward trend in most EMs…
(% YoY)
…but has weakened sharply in Thailand
China
S Africa
Indonesia
15
12
9
6
3
0
(% YoY)
Korea
Malaysia
Taiwan
Thailand
Brazil
Russia
India
18
14
10
6
2
-2
14.7
14.4
13.4
7.0
5.0
11.9
6.3
6.1
5.5
1.1
Bank credit-to-GDP ratio has declined in Russia and Thailand; but picked up fastest in China
(% of GDP)
146
155
Dec-17
Dec-18
140
117
117
80
63
63
82
95
93
145
87
47
48
49
50
90
35
36
BR
CN
IN
ID
KR
MY
RU
SA
TW
TH
Sources: CEIC, Various national sources, MOSL
March 2019
9

Bond yield continues on a downward trend
Broadly unchanged in most EMs in 1QCY19; Eased only in Indonesia and Malaysia
(bp)
14
11
8
5
2
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
(bp)
10
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Taiwan
Thailand
9.23
8.28
7.35
3.16
8
6
4
2
0
7.77
3.82
2.54
2.02
0.86
Data up to 22
nd
March, 2019
Benchmark bond yield has declined across EMs in the recent past
15
3
(4) (4)
(23)
(31)
(45)
Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
(35)
(31)
(53)
Russia
(2)
(6)
(14)
(bp)
9
1-week
2
(2)
5
1-month
3-month
3
(5)
(7)
(22) (23)
(3)
(4) (2)
(14)
(28)
(7)
(11)
(13)
South Africa
Taiwan
Thailand
Data up to 22
nd
March , 2019
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
March 2019
10

Policy rates: Only IN cut rates in the past three months
India cut interest rates by 25bp in the last three months, while all other EMs have stayed intact
Brazil
11
9
7
6
4
2
(%)
Russia
India
China*
S Africa
7
6
(%)
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Taiwan
Thailand
6.00
7.75
6.75
6.25
2.55
5
4
3
2
1
3.25
1.75
1.38
* 7-day reverse repo
Even in the past six months, while India has cut rates, many other EMs have actually hiked rates
Current
Policy rate
Brazil (BR)
China (CN)
India (IN)
Indonesia (ID)
Korea (KR)
Malaysia (MY)
Russia (RU)
South Africa (SA)
Taiwan (TW)
Thailand (TH)
Cumulative change in policy rate (bps) in last
1 Month
3 Months
6 Months
Next policy date
9
th
May 2019
--
4
th
April 2019
16
th
May 2019
18
th
April 2019
--
14
th
June 2019
28
th
March 2019
20
th
June 2019
8
th
May 2019
Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, MOSL
6.50
2.55
6.25
6.00
1.75
3.25
1.38
7.75
6.75
1.75
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-25
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-0.25
+0.25
+0.25
0
0
+0.25
+0.25
+0.25
March 2019
11

Inflation: No concerns in most EMs
Inflation has climbed in Russia and moved into the negative territory in Malaysia. Otherwise, it is well-tamed in most EMs
(% YoY)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S Africa
4
3
(% YoY)
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Taiwan
Thailand
4.1
3.8
2.6
1.5
2.6
0.7
0.2
-0.7
2
1
0
(1)
Although inflation rose in five out of the 10 EMs in 2018, it remained under 4% for all but South Africa
2017
(% YoY)
3.5
3.7
3.3
2.1
4.0
3.8
3.2
1.9
3.8
2018
5.3
4.6
3.7
2.8
1.5
1.4
0.6
0.7
1.6
1.0
1.1
BR
CN
IN
ID
KR
MY
RU
SA
TW
TH
Source: CEIC, Various national sources, MOSL
March 2019
12

Central Bank: Balance sheet has been stable in the recent past
Growth in the size of the Central Bank balance sheets of most EMs has largely remained unchanged in recent months
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S Africa
108
Korea
Malaysia
Taiwan
Thailand
124
116
108
100
92
119.4
113.6
111.9
101.5
105
102
99
96
104.1
101.9
98.7
96.9
Data rebased to Jan’18
Source: CEIC, Various national sources, MOSL
Data for Indonesia (ID) is not available
India’s Central Bank has not expanded in the last four quarters, while it has contracted for China, Thailand and Malaysia and risen for other EMs
S Africa
India
Korea
Malaysia
Russia
China
Thailand
Brazil
Taiwan
Data for Dec ‘18
17.0
Central bank Balance sheet (% of GDP)
2.5
31.3
36.9
41.4
45.2
51.0
92.7
BR
Change in central bank balance sheet (% of GDP) over the past 4 quarters
3.4
2.6
0.6
(0.1)
(1.9)
(2.8)
CN
IN
KR
MY
TW
RU
SA
(2.4)
TH
27.8
1.8
20.6
Data for Dec ‘18
March 2019
13

Fiscal deficit: Narrowed in most EMs over the past four quarters
Fiscal deficit# has narrowed across most EMs, except China and Malaysia
(% of GDP)
1.4
2017
1.0
(0.1)
2018
2.5
0.1
(1.1)
(1.1)
(1.2)
0.2
(3.7)
(7.5)
China
(4.2)
(4.0)
(3.6)
(2.5)
(1.8)
(2.9)
(3.7)
(1.7)
(7.8)
Brazil
India
Indonesia
Korea*
Malaysia
Russia
S Africa
Taiwan
Thailand
*Data for the first three quarters of the calendar years
#Fiscal position for the Central Government only
Russia, Taiwan and Thailand posted a fiscal surplus in 2018
(% of GDP)
Brazil (BR)
China (CN)
India (IN)
Indonesia (ID)
Korea (KR)*
Malaysia (MY)
Russia (RU)
South Africa (SA)
Taiwan (TW)
Thailand (TH)
Fiscal deficit#
2013
(2.6)
(1.8)
(5.5)
(2.5)
1.0
(3.8)
(0.4)
(1.2)
(0.8)
(0.2)
2014
(5.0)
(1.8)
(4.2)
(2.1)
0.6
(3.4)
(0.5)
(1.1)
(0.7)
(0.2)
2015
(9.1)
(3.4)
(3.5)
(2.5)
(0.0)
(3.2)
(2.5)
(1.0)
0.2
0.7
2016
(7.7)
(3.8)
(3.7)
(2.5)
1.0
(3.1)
(3.7)
(1.0)
(0.3)
(0.4)
2017
(7.8)
(3.7)
(4.0)
(2.5)
1.4
(2.9)
(1.7)
(1.1)
(0.1)
(1.2)
2018
(7.5)
(4.2)
(3.6)
(1.8)
1.0
(3.7)
2.5
(1.1)
0.1
0.2
Source: CEIC, Various national sources, MOSL
March 2019
14

Currency: Most EM currencies have strengthened against the USD in 1QCY19
Most EM currencies have gained against the USD in 1QCY19
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
WEAKER USD
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
105
100
95
90
STRONGER USD
85
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Taiwan
Thailand
Note: Data is rebased to 22
nd
March, 2018. A value greater than 100 indicates appreciation in local currency (LC) vis-à-vis the USD and vice-versa
The INR has weakened the most against the USD in real terms in the past six months, while the CNY has strengthened the most
(%)
Brazilian Real (BRL)
Chinese Yuan (CNY)
Indian Rupee (INR)
Indonesian Rupiah (IDR)
Korean Won (KRW)
Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Russian Ruble (RUB)
S African Rand (ZAR)
Taiwan Dollar (NTD)
Thailand Baht (THB)
# Data up to 22
nd
March, 2019.
Exchange rate (vs. US Dollar)#
1-week
1-month
3-month
6-month
1-month
Real effective exchange rate*
3-month
6-month
12-month
(1.2)
2.6
0.8
0.3
0.7
1.1
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.1
(3.6)
2.8
3.7
0.3
(2.5)
(0.6)
(0.1)
0.5
0.1
(1.4)
(0.4)
6.7
2.0
2.8
(0.2)
2.3
0.3
2.9
0.1
2.9
4.9
3.9
4.6
2.1
(0.7)
4.7
(0.5)
1.7
(0.3)
2.1
0.4
2.0
(1.1)
0.2
(0.3)
0.3
0.4
1.7
0.7
1.5
0.6
3.7
(1.3)
3.2
(1.7)
0.2
(1.6)
2.3
1.1
2.9
6.6
3.8
(3.3)
3.8
(1.6)
(0.4)
(1.6)
3.7
3.1
4.1
(2.9)
(1.0)
(3.3)
2.9
0.4
(1.4)
(1.4)
(3.7)
(6.7)
5.0
*Ending February’ 2019
Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, MOSL
March 2019
15

External Vulnerability: Deterioration visible across EMs
China and Russia have added forex reserves in Jan-Feb 2019…
Forex
Reserves^
(USD b)
Brazil (BR)
China (CN)
India (IN)
Indonesia (ID)
Korea (KR)
Malaysia (MY)
Russia (RU)
South Africa (SA)
Taiwan (TW)
Thailand (TH)
^As at end-February 2019
369
3,088
397
111
395
99
377
43
464
18
…and import cover# for most EMs also remains extremely comfortable
Thailand
S Africa
Russia
Taiwan
Malaysia
Korea
Indonesia
India
China
Brazil
0
5
Nov-Jan'18
Nov-Jan'19
(No. of months)
Change in forex reserves (USD b) in the last
1 month
1.2
0.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.3
0.0
(0.0)
0.9
(5.5)
3 months
(1.7)
26.2
3.0
1.3
2.4
0.3
7.3
(0.3)
2.6
(4.9)
6 months
(3.5)
(21.8)
(3.4)
(1.3)
4.3
(2.1)
3.1
0.4
4.1
(5.9)
12 months
0.9
(46.6)
(24.2)
(11.0)
10.2
(1.4)
13.3
0.7
7.2
(2.0)
10
15
20
25
30
Source: CEIC, Various national sources, MOSL
#Import cover = Forex reserves/Merchandise imports
External vulnerability** has worsened across most EMs in 4QCY18 (or 3QCY18) compared to year-ago levels
Malaysia
S Africa*
Indonesia*
India*
China*
Brazil
Korea
Russia*
Thailand*
Taiwan
*Data is for 3QCY18. For all other countries, data is for 4QCY18
@ Liquidity ratio = (Forex reserves –short-term debt)/GDP *100
0.0
3.2
6.0
Liquidity ratio@
(%)
135
105
(%)
4Q 2017
4Q 2018
10.9
14.0
16.1
16.5
19.1
26.3
48.0
75
45
15
-15
BR
CN*
IN*
ID*
KR
MA
RU*
SA*
TW
TH*
*Data is for 3Q CY17/18 for these countries. For all other countries, data is for 4Q CY17/18
**External vulnerability = (Short term debt + CAD) / Forex reserves*100. The lower , the better.
March 2019
16

Trade: Export growth has weakened in most EMs in 2019
Many EMs have seen declining exports in 2019; India is the only economy with strong growth in Jan-Feb 2019
(% YoY)
Brazil (BR)
China (CN)
India (IN)
Indonesia (ID)
Korea (KR)
Malaysia (MY)
Russia (RU)
South Africa (SA)
Taiwan (TW)
Thailand (TH)
1Q 2017
24.3
4.2
17.6
20.8
14.6
14.8
36.7
25.0
15.0
6.8
2Q 2017
15.2
6.3
8.5
7.8
16.7
11.4
23.7
11.4
10.2
7.9
3Q 2017
15.8
6.0
12.3
24.0
24.0
15.7
19.3
12.0
17.4
12.8
4Q 2017
15.9
9.9
14.1
13.4
8.4
16.6
23.4
17.8
10.4
11.6
1Q 2018
8.4
13.0
5.5
8.7
9.8
19.6
22.9
10.8
10.6
12.6
2Q 2018
3.4
10.9
14.5
11.3
3.1
18.8
30.4
6.3
11.2
14.4
3Q 2018
11.4
11.6
10.0
8.5
1.7
9.4
30.4
5.5
3.0
2.6
4Q 2018
17.9
4.4
5.8
(0.7)
7.7
(64.1)
15.0
(66.4)
0.1
2.3
Jan-19
9.3
8.5
3.7
(4.3)
(6.2)
(1.0)
27.8
(3.2)
(0.3)
(4.7)
Feb-19
(6.4)
(21.2)
2.5
(11.3)
(11.4)
-
-
-
(8.8)
-
2017
18.2
6.4
13.3
17.1
16.0
14.8
26.0
16.8
13.6
9.7
2018
10.6
11.0
9.5
7.1
6.0
14.1
27.0
5.9
6.2
8.2
Source: CEIC, Various national sources, MOSL
Current account balance has worsened in all EMs, except Russia
(% of GDP)
2017
2018
14.4
11.6
7.0
4.9
1.4
(0.4)
Brazil
(0.8)
China
0.4
(1.3)
(2.3)
(1.6)
4.7
3.0
2.4
2.1
11.0
7.5
(3.0)
Korea
Malaysia
Russia
(2.6)
(3.6)
Taiwan
Thailand
India*
Indonesia
S Africa
* Data is for the first three quarters of the calendar years
March 2019
17

Monthly Calendar: April 2019
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
1
Brazil trade (March)
Indonesia inflation (March)
Thailand inflation(March)
Korea trade (March)
Russia GDP growth (Q42018)
2
Brazil industrial
production(March)
Korea inflation (March)
3
4
Malaysia trade (Feb)
India monetary policy
Korea current account (Feb)
5
Russia inflation (March)
8
9
Taiwan trade (March)
Russia BOP (Q12019)
10
Brazil inflation (March)
Taiwan inflation (March)
11
China inflation (March)
Malaysia industry prod (Feb)
India general election voting
starts
12
China trade (March)
India CPI inflation (March)
India IIP (Feb)
15
Indonesia trade (March)
India WPI inflation (March)
India trade (March)*
Russia industry prod (March)
16
17
China GDP (Q12019)
China industrial prod (March)
18
Korea monetary policy
19
22
Thailand trade (March)
23
Taiwan industrial prod (March)
24
Malaysia inflation (March)
25
Brazil BOP (March)
China monetary policy
26
Russia monetary policy
29
30
Thailand industry prod (March)
Taiwan GDP growth (Q12019)
Korea industry prod(March)
South Africa trade (March)
31
* Dates are tentative
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
March 2019
18

Monthly Calendar: May 2019
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
1
Brazil trade (April)
Korea trade (April)
2
Indonesia inflation (April)
Thailand inflation (April)
Korea inflation (April)
3
Brazil industry prod (March)
Malaysia trade (March)
6
Indonesia GDP growth
rate(Q12019)
7
Malaysia monetary policy
Taiwan trade (April)
Russia inflation (April)
8
China trade (April)
Thailand monetary policy
Taiwan inflation (April)
South Africa general elections
9
Brazil monetary policy
China inflation (April)
10
Brazil inflation (April)
Indonesia BOP (Q12019)
Malaysia industry prod (March)
India industry prod (March)
13
India CPI inflation (April)
14
India WPI inflation (April)
15
China industry prod (April)
Indonesia trade (April)
India trade (April)*
16
17
Indonesia monetary policy
Russia trade (April)
Malaysia BOP (Q12019)
Russia GDP growth (Q12019)
Malaysia GDP growth (Q12019)
20
Thailand GDP growth (Q12019)
Taiwan BOP (Q12019)
21
22
Thailand trade (April)
Russia industry prod (April)
South Africa inflation (April)
23
Taiwan industry prod (April)
India general election results
South Africa monetary policy
24
Malaysia inflation (April)
27
28
29
30
Brazil GDP growth (Q12019)
31
Brazil fiscal balance (April)
Thailand industry prod (April)
India GDP growth (Q4FY19)
Korea monetary policy
South Africa trade (April)
India fiscal balance (April)
Dates are tentative
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
March 2019
19

Monthly Calendar: June 2019
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
3
Malaysia trade (April)
Thailand inflation (May)
4
South Africa GDP (Q12019)
Brazil industry prod (April)
Korea GDP final (Q12019)
Korea inflation (May)
5
Taiwan inflation (May)
6
South Africa BOP (Q12019)
Russia inflation (May)
India monetary policy
7
Brazil inflation (May)
10
China trade (May)
Indonesia inflation (May)
11
Malaysia industry prod (April)
Russia trade (April)
12
China inflation (May)
India CPI inflation (May)
India IIP (May)
13
India BOP (Q4FY19)*
14
China industry prod(May)
India trade (May)*
Russia monetary policy
India WPI inflation (May)
17
Indonesia trade (May)
18
Russia GDP final (Q12019)
Russia industry prod (May)
19
South Africa inflation (May)
Thailand monetary policy
20
Brazil monetary policy
Indonesia monetary policy
Taiwan monetary policy
21
Thailand trade (May)
24
Thailand trade (February)
25
Taiwan industry prod (May)
26
Malaysia inflation (May)
27
28
South Africa trade (May)
Brazil BOP (May)
Thailand industry prod (May)
India fiscal deficit (May)
Korea industry prod (May)
Dates are tentative
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
March 2019
20

NOTES
March 2019
21

Motilal Oswal Securities Limited
MEMBER OF BSE AND NSE
Motilal Oswal Tower, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025, INDIA
BOARD: +91 22 3982 5500 | WEBSITE:
www.motilaloswal.com
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the
recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL*) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock
broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOSL is a subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. (MOFSL). MOFSL is a listed
public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock
Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and BSE Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) & National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with
Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) & National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products. Details of associate entities of
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are available on the website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf
MOSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relative may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more
securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. MOSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives
may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such
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other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the
analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in
the research report. Research Analyst may have served as director/officer, etc. in the subject company in the last 12 month period. MOSL and/or its associates may have received any compensation from the subject company
in the past 12 months.
In the last 12 months period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report, MOSL or any of its associates may have:
managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,
received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,
received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.
Subject Company may have been a client of MOSL or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
MOSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. To enhance transparency, MOSL has incorporated a Disclosure
of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research
Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
March 2019

Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to,
copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true,
correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been
independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The
report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to
all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Companies where there is interest
Analyst ownership of the stock
No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com. Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical Research. Proprietary
trading desk of MOSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to subject
company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation
or which would subject MOSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC)
pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with
Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Hong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any
investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities,
products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis
in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOSL is not
a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the
absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is
intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document
must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged
in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal
Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore,
may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
March 2019

For Singapore
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets services license and an exempt financial adviser in
Singapore,
as per the approved agreement under Paragraph 9 of Third Schedule of Securities and Futures Act (CAP 289) and Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110) provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary Authority
of Singapore. Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as
“Institutional Investors”, of which some of whom may consist of "accredited" institutional investors as defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“the SFA”). Accordingly, if a Singapore
person is not or ceases to be such an institutional investor, such Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and inform MOCMSPL.
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The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or
to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to
buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to
your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives,
financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems
necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the
merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as
non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and
opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the
report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval.
MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may
perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and
independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already available in publicly accessible media or
developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your
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The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt
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hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263;
www.motilaloswal.com.
Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre,
2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com,
Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser:
INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration
No.: INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt.
Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
*MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench. The existing
registration no(s) of MOSL would be used until receipt of new MOFSL registration numbers.
March 2019