22 April 2019
Metals Weekly
Indian steel:
Long product (TMT Mumbai) prices were unchanged WoW.
Sponge iron prices were ~1% higher, while scrap prices declined ~2%
WoW. Iron ore prices remained unchanged WoW. Pellet prices were
higher ~3% WoW. Domestic HRC prices were ~1% lower WoW. Export
price offers were lower, while import offers were higher.
Raw materials:
Iron ore prices (China CFR) were ~2% lower WoW. Thermal
BSE Metals Index v/s Sensex
coal prices declined ~1% WoW. Coking coal prices remained broadly
unchanged. China’s pellet import prices were ~1% higher WoW. Chinese
graphite electrode prices were unchanged.
Europe:
HRC prices were unchanged WoW. CIS HRC export prices were
lower ~3%. Rotterdam scrap prices were up ~4% WoW.
China steel prices:
Chinese HRC prices were lower ~1% while rebar prices
declined ~2% WoW. Export prices for rebar increased ~1% WoW while
export prices for HRC were unchanged.
Source: Bloomberg
Base metals:
Aluminum (cash LME) was broadly flat WoW. Alumina prices
Note: Indexed to 100 on 15 April 2019
decreased ~4% WoW. Copper (cash LME) was down ~1% WoW. Zinc (cash
LME) decreased ~5% WoW given higher inventories. Lead (cash LME) was
Investors are advised to refer through
up ~1% WoW. Brent crude prices were up ~2% WoW.
important disclosures made at the last
page of the Research Report
.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523 /
Aniket Mittal
(Aniket.Mittal@MotilalOswal.com)
Zinc prices lower ~5% on higher inventories; Alumina prices decline
~4%

Metals Weekly
Contents
Page No.
Ferrous
India
European Union
China
Other regions
Steel raw material
Ferro alloys
3-10
3,4 & 5
6
7
8&9
10, 11
12
Non-ferrous
Aluminum
Copper
Zinc
Lead
Crude Oil
Commodity curve analysis
China non-ferrous trade data
13-20
13
15
16
17
18
19
20
Key indicators
Industrial production growth across the globe
BSE announcements
Metals valuation matrix
Metals stock performance
21-22
23
24
25
26
22 April 2019
2

Metals Weekly
Ferrous
HRC prices were 0.6%
lower at INR42,250/t
Ferrous
INDIAN DOMESTIC MARKET
HRC prices (INR/T, excl. GST)
50,500
46,000
41,500
37,000
32,500
Spot
Quaterly average
Avg. is up INR588 QoQ
Long products (TMT
Mumbai) prices were flat
WoW at INR36,900/t.
Rebar prices (INR/T, exl. GST)
44,500
41,500
38,500
35,500
32,500
29,500
Spot
Quaterly average
Avg. is down INR473 QoQ
Sponge iron (made from lumps) prices & spreads to Rebar (INR/T, excl. GST)
Sponge iron prices were
0.5% higher at
INR19,600/t.
27,000
24,000
21,000
18,000
Coal based Sponge (Raipur) - LHS
Sprea ds (Rebar – 1.25x s ponge) - RHS
15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000
India: Integrated steel mills spreads (Import parity HRC – 1xcoking coal)
Indian integrated steel mills spreads (INR/t)
43,000
39,000
35,000
31,000
27,000
23,000
19,000
15,000
Source: SteelMint, WSA, MOFSL
22 April 2019
3

Metals Weekly
Ferrous
Ferrous
INDIA
Scrap Mandi & spreads to Rebar (INR/t)
Scrap (Mandi) - LHS
Sprea ds (Rebar – 1.1x s cra p) - RHS
Scrap prices were down
1.6% WoW to INR24,800/t.
32,000
29,000
26,000
23,000
20,000
18,000
15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000
Iron ore lumps (INR/t)
Iron ore lump prices were
unchanged WoW.
7,500
6,500
5,500
4,500
3,500
2,500
1,500
NMDC 6-40mm (CG)
Lumps 5-18 (Odisha)
Iron ore fines (INR/t) ex mine
Iron ore fines prices were
unchanged WoW.
4,100
3,700
3,300
2,900
2,500
2,100
1,700
1,300
Rungta Fines 63% (Odisha, incl. royalty)
NMDC Fines, ex-royalty
Pellet (Barbil) INR/t
Pellet prices increased
2.9% WoW to INR5,400/t.
9,800
8,800
7,800
6,800
5,800
4,800
3,800
2,800
Pellet (Barbil)
Source: SteelMint, WSA, MOFSL
22 April 2019
4

Metals Weekly
India Monthly steel trends
Steel consumption (mt) and growth (trailing 12-month) YoY %
India steel demand grew
3.9% YoY in February 2019.
Cons. (mt)
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
Trailing 12m Growth (%)
Steel imports and exports - kt
India was a marginal net
exporter of steel in
February 2019.
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
Net steel imports (kt)
Sponge iron production - kt
Sponge iron production
was down ~ 3% YoY to
2.74mt in January 2019.
Sponge iron production - kt
Crude steel production & finished steel inventories - mt
Crude steel production - mt
Finished steel inventories - mt
Crude steel production
was up 4.8% YoY
in February 2019.
Inventories lowered
0.2mt MoM to 9.4mt
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
Source: JPC
22 April 2019
5

Metals Weekly
European Union
European HRC prices (EUR/ton)
Europe HRC steel prices
were unchanged WoW.
North Europe HRC
630
570
510
450
390
South Europe HRC
Shredded scrap prices (USD/t) fob Rotterdam
Rotterdam scrap prices
were up 4.2% WoW to
USD296/t.
395
355
315
275
235
195
155
European wire rods southern region (Euro/t)
540
500
460
420
380
340
300
South Europe wire rod
prices were down 0.5%
WoW.
Spreads ( HRC-1.6xiron ore-0.7xcoking coal) – (USD/t)
450
395
340
285
230
175
120
EU
China
China product spreads
were unchanged WoW.
Source: Bloomberg, WSA, MOFSL
22 April 2019
6

Metals Weekly
China
China domestic prices (USD/ton)
Chinese local rebar and
HRC prices were lower
WoW.
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
Rebar
HRC
Steel spreads (Steel price – 1.6x iron ore – 0.55x coke) for Chinese producers
Chinese steel product
Rebar spreads were down
~1% WoW; HRC spreads
were higher ~1% WoW.
490
410
330
250
170
90
HRC
Rebar
Steel trade (m ton)
Chinese steel exports were
higher ~12% YoY to 6.3mt in
March 2019.
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Exports
Imports - rhs
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
Steel inventories in main China cities (m tons)
7
6
Steel inventories in China
were at 4.1mt.
5
4
3
2
22 April 2019
7

Metals Weekly
Other regions
CIS HRC export prices (USD/ton) fob basis
CIS export HRC prices were
down ~3% WoW at
USD490/t.
CIS Exports (HRC)
650
600
550
500
450
400
Turkish export billets (USD/ton)
640
590
540
490
440
390
Turkish Exp Billets
Electrode prices in China for High Power Diameter 400 (USD/ton)
China H.P Diameter 400 (USD/t)
Prices were flat WoW.
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
EAF spreads (Turkish steel billet price – Rotterdam scrap prices) in USD/t
280
230
180
130
80
30
Billet spreads (USD/t)
Source: WSA, Bloomberg, MOFSL
22 April 2019
8

Metals Weekly
Other regions
Global steel production from recycled steel - kt (Crude steel prod – BF production*0.96)
Global steel production
from recycled steel
decreased 0.5% YoY in
February 2019.
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Steel from recycled steel (kt)
growth - %
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
North America: Monthly crude steel production
North America
YoY (%)
15.0
7.5
0.0
-7.5
-15.0
US steel production
increased 0.2% YoY to
9.4mt in February 2019.
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
Global: Monthly crude steel production
Global crude steel
production increased 4.1%
YoY to 137.3mt in February
2019.
160
150
140
130
120
Global
YoY (%)
13
10
7
4
1
-2
-5
-8
Global: Monthly crude steel capacity utilization
82
Capacity Utilization
Capacity utilization improved
460bps YoY to 77.5% in July
2018.
78
74
70
66
62
Source: Bloomberg, WSA, MOFSL
22 April 2019
9

Metals Weekly
Steel raw materials
Import price of 62% grade iron-ore fines in China (USD/ton)
CIF
FOB
Iron ore (China cfr) prices
werelower ~2% WoW.
115
85
55
25
Pellet China cfr (USD/ton)
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Iron ore pellet cfr China - USD/t
China iron-ore production and imports (m tons)
China iron ore imports
decreased 1.4% YoY to
83.1mt in February 2019.
130
105
80
55
30
Ore Imports
Ore Prod
Pig iron prod (RHS)
76
68
60
52
44
China’s iron-ore inventories (mt)
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
China iron ore inventories
were higher 2% WoW at
128.1mt.
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
22 April 2019
10

Metals Weekly
Steel raw materials
Freight rates to China (USD/ton)
Brazil
Australia
India
Freight rates were
unchanged WoW.
24
16
8
0
Coal price index
Richards Bay thermal coal
prices were at USD68/t
Ri chards Bay Steam Coal
105
90
75
60
45
Coke price index (fob China)
China coke export spot (LHS)
355
330
305
280
255
230
Coking coal (USD/t)
320
270
Spot coking coal (fob Australia)
Coking coal prices were
broadly unchanged WoW.
220
170
120
70
22 April 2019
11

Metals Weekly
Ferro alloys
China’s imports of manganese ore and concentrate
3,500
2,900
2,300
1,700
1,100
500
Imports
Prices (RHS)
290
230
170
110
50
Chrome ore FOB spot prices
320
270
220
170
120
70
42% Chrome cif China
Ferro chrome CIF prices (CNY/t)
9,000
7,500
6,000
4,500
Fe Chrome 50% Cr China
Silico Manganese prices
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
Silico Manganese in warehouses in Pittsburg USA
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
22 April 2019
12

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Non-ferrous
Aluminum
2,600
2,450
2,300
2,150
2,000
1,850
1,700
LME inventories and spot prices
Inventories (RHS)
Spot
Aluminum (cash LME) was
broadly flat WoW at
USD1,839/t.
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Global primary aluminum monthly production and YoY growth
Global aluminum
production was up 5.9%
YoY to 5.13mt in
Aug 2018.
Production
5,400
4,800
4,200
3,600
3,000
YoY
22.0
17.0
12.0
7.0
2.0
-3.0
-8.0
-13.0
Aluminum: SHFE Vs LME arbitrage (USD/T)
LME and SHFE arbitrage is
unfavorable.
250
150
50
-50
-150
-250
-350
-450
-550
-650
India: Company-wise primary aluminum monthly production
Hindalco
Balco
Nalco
VED - JSG
22 April 2019
13

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Aluminum
All-in-aluminum was
at USD2,266/t.
3,200
2,400
1,600
800
0
Aluminum raw material and power cost for marginal producer in USA (USD/t)
CPC
Alumina
Power
LME+Spot
CPC US (USD/t)
600
500
400
300
200
Alumina (USD/t)
790
Alumina was at
~USD363/t.
690
590
490
390
290
190
Industrial Power US (Lousiana) per mwh
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
Source: Bloomberg, Industry, MOFSL
22 April 2019
14

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Copper
LME inventories and prices
Inventories (RHS)
Spot
7,850
7,250
6,650
6,050
5,450
4,850
4,250
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Copper (cash LME) prices
were down ~1% WoW to
USD6,448/t.
Global refined copper monthly production and YoY growth
2.2
Production
YoY - RHS
20.0
13.5
7.0
0.5
-6.0
-12.5
Global copper production
declined 2.5% YoY to
1.943mt in Aug 2018.
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
China: Refined copper monthly production and YoY growth
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
Production
YoY - RHS
34
23
12
1
-10
Copper: Spot TCRC (USc/lb)
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
22 April 2019
15

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Zinc
Zinc (cash LME) was down
~5% WoW to USD2,854 /t
LME inventories and prices
Inventories (RHS)
3,800
3,500
3,200
2,900
2,600
2,300
2,000
Spot
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Global refined zinc monthly production and YoY growth
Production
YoY growth (RHS)
12.0
8.0
4.0
0.0
-4.0
-8.0
Global zinc production
declined 5% YoY to
1.067mt in Aug 2018.
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
China: Refined zinc monthly production and YoY growth
Production
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
YoY growth (RHS)
20
10
0
-10
-20
Zinc: Global metal surplus (deficit) – kt
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
22 April 2019
16

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Lead
Lead (cash LME) was up
~1% WoW at USD1,919/t.
LME inventories and prices
2,750
2,550
2,350
2,150
1,950
1,750
1,550
Inventories (RHS)
Spot
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
-
Global refined lead monthly production and YoY growth
1.1
1.0
Production
YoY - RHS
14
Refined lead production
increased 2.7% YoY to
951kt in Aug 2018.
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
-2
-18
China: Refined lead monthly production and YoY growth
0.5
0.4
0
0.3
0.2
-20
Production
YoY - RHS
20
India: Company-wise refined lead monthly production
HZL
:
16
19 19 18 17
18 16 15 18
17
15 16
14
14 13 12 14 14
13
12 12
12 13
10
22
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
22 April 2019
17

Metals Weekly
Crude Oil
Brent crude oil price (USD/bbl)
Brent (crude oil) was
up ~2% WoW to
USD72/bbl.
Brent Crude
85.0
75.0
65.0
55.0
45.0
35.0
Global crude oil quarterly supply & surplus/(deficit) - mbpd
120
100
80
60
40
Non-OPEC supply
OPEC Supply
surplus/(deficit) - RHS
4
2
1
-1
-3
-4
Crude oil production by Private/JVs in Rajasthan (‘000 tonnes)
800
700
600
500
400
000 tonnes
YoY growth (%) - RHS
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Crude oil futures (USD/bbl)
75
70
65
60
55
Current
1-week ago
3-month ago
:
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
22 April 2019
18

Metals Weekly
Commodity forward curves
LME aluminum (USD/ton)
2,400
2,300
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800
Current
1-week ago
3-month ago
LME copper (USD/ton)
6,600
6,400
6,200
6,000
5,800
Current
1-week ago
3-month ago
LME zinc futures (USD/ton)
3,000
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
Current
1-week ago
3-month ago
Aluminum metal US spot premium (USD/ton)
665
540
415
290
165
40
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
22 April 2019
19

Metals Weekly
China non-ferrous trade data
China’s aluminum trade ('000 tons)
Aluminum exports were
down 8% YoY to 340kt in
February 2019.
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Imports
Exports
China’s refined copper trade ('000 tons)
400
300
200
100
0
Imports
Exports
China’s refined zinc trade ('000 tons)
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Export
Import
China’s alumina imports ('000 tons)
600
Chinese alumina imports
decreased 50% YoY to 50kt
in February 2019.
400
200
0
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
22 April 2019
20

Metals Weekly
Key indicators
China new loan growth (Yuan b)
3,300
2,700
2,100
1,500
900
300
China: PMI
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
Mfg PMI
Steel PMI
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
China: Fixed asset investment growth (%)
Fixed asset investment
growth was at 6.3% YoY
in March 2019.
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
Currency movement with respect to the rupee
75
71
67
63
59
55
51
USD (LHS)
GBP
EURO
110
101
92
83
74
65
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
22 April 2019
21

Metals Weekly
Key indicators (Contd...)
China Energy Production: Electricity (b kwh)
Electricity
YoY (%, RHS)
32
17
2
-13
China electricity
generation increased 7.9%
YoY in Jan 2019.
650
580
510
440
370
300
China Monthly Trade YoY (%)
50
30
10
-10
-30
Import
Export
China Price Index YoY (%)
8
5
2
-1
-4
-7
PPI
CPI
China GDP YoY (%)
7.2
China’s GDP growth was
6.4% in 1QCY19.
6.9
6.6
6.3
6.0
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
22 April 2019
22

Metals Weekly
Industrial production growth
The UK and the USA (%)
6
3
0
-3
-6
UK
USA
Japan (%)
10
5
0
-5
-10
European Union (%)
8
2
-4
-10
France
Germany
Italy
BRIC (%)
Russia
13
6
-1
-8
-15
Brazil
India
China
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
22 April 2019
23

Metals Weekly
Stock exchange announcements
None
22 April 2019
24

Metals Weekly
Metals
Valuation Matrix
Valuations: Indian Companies
Rating
Steel
Ta ta Steel
JSW Steel
JSPL
SAIL
Non-Ferrous
Hi nda l co
Na l co
Veda nta
Ra i n Ind.*
Mining
Coa l Indi a
Hi ndus ta n Zi nc
NMDC
*CY reporti ng
Sel l
Buy
Buy
Neutra l
Buy
Buy
Sel l
Buy
Buy
Neutra l
Buy
Price
(INR)
543
299
183
57
207
54
179
126
252
284
104
MCAP
(USD M)
7,624
10,447
2,426
3,425
6,188
2,025
7,660
611
22,989
17,330
5,978
FY18
69.5
23.4
-8.5
0.3
18.9
5.1
20.4
23.7
19.2
21.1
13.1
EPS
FY19E
88.7
30.6
2.3
5.0
25.7
8.8
12.9
20.4
27.4
18.6
15.4
FY20E
72.0
21.2
3.7
6.1
26.3
5.7
16.0
13.7
29.0
22.1
10.7
P/E (x)
FY19E FY20E
6.1
9.8
79.6
11.5
8.1
6.2
13.8
6.2
9.2
15.2
6.8
7.5
14.1
49.1
9.5
7.9
9.5
11.2
9.2
8.7
12.8
9.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY19E FY20E
6.1
6.9
7.0
7.5
5.6
2.8
6.6
5.4
4.3
9.6
3.9
7.0
8.1
6.6
6.5
5.4
4.7
5.4
6.6
4.3
7.8
5.6
P/B(x)
FY19E FY20E
1.0
2.3
0.6
0.6
1.1
1.0
1.1
0.9
1.2
2.1
0.6
0.6
1.0
1.0
1.1
0.9
7.6
7.0
3.6
3.1
1.2
1.2
Source: MOSL
Valuations: Global Companies
Company
Mining
BHP-Bi l l i ton
FMG
Ri o Ti nto
Va l e
Teck Res ources
Angl o Ameri ca n
STEEL
Arcel or Mi tta l
Pos co
US Steel
Nucor
JFE
Gerda u
Anga ng
Ali - Smelting
Al coa
Hydro
Rus a l
Ali - Rolled
Arconi cs
Cons tel l i um
BBG
CODE
BHP AU
FMG AU
RIO AU
Va l e US
TCK US
AAL LN
MT NA
005490 KS
X US
NUE US
5411 JT
GGBR4 BZ
000898 CH
AA US
NHY NO
486 HK
ARNC US
CSTM US
Currency
AUD
AUD
AUD
USD
USD
GBp
EUR
k KRW
USD
USD
JPY
BRL
CNY
USD
NOK
HKD
USD
USD
PRICE
38
7
98
53
25
2,170
21
264
16
58
1,959
15
6
27
39
4
20
9
MCAP
(US$ M)
131,691
16,439
101,422
70,743
14,197
36,441
23,966
19,880
2,846
17,513
10,688
6,121
5,998
4,946
9,492
6,798
9,080
1,278
PE (x)
CUR YR
NXT YR
14.4
7.0
11.8
7.1
8.9
9.7
6.7
7.7
6.5
9.6
7.1
9.8
7.8
25.6
18.1
4.0
12.2
8.3
13.7
6.6
13.2
8.0
10.1
11.0
6.4
7.4
6.6
10.1
7.8
9.2
7.9
10.8
10.9
3.4
10.4
6.4
EV/EBITDA(x)
CUR YR
NXT YR
6.2
4.1
5.3
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.4
3.4
6.1
6.9
5.4
5.3
3.5
6.5
8.7
6.3
5.8
6.1
3.9
5.8
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.3
4.3
3.4
6.3
6.7
5.2
5.1
3.4
4.9
7.1
5.8
5.2
P/BV (x)
CY18
na
na
na
1.6
0.8
na
0.5
0.5
0.7
1.7
na
1.1
0.8
1.0
0.9
1.2
na
110.1
22 April 2019
25

Metals Weekly
Metals Stock
Performance
Among large-cap companies, JSPL
was the best relative performer.
Metals stock performance on absolute and relative basis (%)
Months
Steel
Ta ta Steel
SAIL
JSW Steel
JSPL
NMDC
Non-ferrous
Veda nta
Hi ndus ta n Zi nc
Na l co
Hi nda l co
Mid Caps
Monnet Is pa t
Goda wa ri
Sa rda Energy
Ta ta Sponge
Adhuni k Meta l i ks
Bhus ha n Steel
Ja i Ba l a ji
Ra i n Indus tri es
Pra ka s h Indus tri es
SENSEX
1
3.2
7.0
3.7
8.6
-11.6
3.5
2.6
-0.6
2.4
2.5
-8.4
-2.2
1.1
-16.4
16.9
27.6
19.3
-3.2
2.0
Absolute Perf (%)
3
6
14.9
14.9
3.4
25.6
13.6
-9.4
4.6
-12.0
0.6
-28.9
-6.2
16.5
-1.2
-4.9
-4.3
81.6
3.1
-5.5
7.6
-2.1
-12.2
-17.3
8.8
-5.8
-14.1
5.3
-17.7
-8.9
-27.4
-45.1
-1.9
-6.6
-16.4
22.0
86.3
-32.4
-20.0
12.5
12
-12.5
-28.8
-7.5
-29.5
-16.6
-42.7
-13.6
-37.8
-21.7
-56.5
-58.0
-39.1
-31.9
-46.5
-9.5
139.7
-64.2
-56.9
13.7
Relative Perf to Sensex (%)
1
3
6
12
1.1
5.0
1.7
6.5
-13.6
1.4
0.6
-2.7
0.3
0.4
-10.4
-4.3
-0.9
-18.4
14.9
25.6
17.3
-5.2
-
7.3
7.3
-4.2
18.0
6.0
-17.0
-3.0
-19.6
-7.0
-36.5
-13.8
8.9
-8.9
-12.5
-11.9
74.0
-4.5
-13.1
-
-14.7
-24.7
-29.9
-3.7
-18.3
-26.6
-7.2
-30.2
-21.5
-40.0
-57.6
-14.4
-19.1
-28.9
9.5
73.7
-44.9
-32.5
-
-26.2
-42.5
-21.2
-43.2
-30.3
-56.4
-27.2
-51.5
-35.4
-70.2
-71.7
-52.8
-45.6
-60.2
-23.2
126.0
-77.9
-70.6
-
Among mid-cap companies,
Jai Balaji was the best relative
performer over one month.
Global Metals stock performance on absolute basis (%)
1week
1month
6.9
1.7
-2.8
9.7
8.2
-17.8
-2.5
5.7
3.1
1.5
0.0
2.3
5.4
5.7
-9.5
-6.8
-3.8
8.4
Absolute Perf (%)
3 months
6 months
18.0
16.3
-7.9
64.4
21.2
-22.6
-0.4
8.8
14.3
0.2
6.0
3.6
-13.5
14.1
-5.2
-9.9
35.0
25.5
21.2
13.6
-16.4
96.8
29.4
-41.8
-2.7
-15.2
4.5
-2.9
-20.5
-8.6
-32.7
-17.7
-12.0
-27.4
69.6
7.7
7 months
16.4
23.6
-5.7
58.8
21.6
-56.0
-11.7
-25.4
-15.1
-25.8
-13.8
-15.9
-39.9
-32.2
-24.1
-55.7
96.1
-35.0
12 months
16.4
23.6
-5.7
58.8
21.6
-56.0
-11.7
-25.4
-15.1
-25.8
-13.8
-15.9
-39.9
-32.2
-24.1
-55.7
96.1
-35.0
Among global mining companies,
Vale was the best relative
performer over one week.
Among global steel majors,
Thyssen Krupp was the best
relative performer.
Among the global aluminum, Rusal
was the best
relative performer
Mining
Ri o Ti nto
BHP Bi l l i ton
Va l e
FMG
Angl o Ameri ca n
Steel
US Steel
Nucor
Arcel or Mi tta l
Anga ng
Pos co
JFE Hol di ngs
Ni ppon
Thys s en Krupp
Voes t Al pi ne
Gerda u
Aluminium
Al coa
Rus a l
Cha l co
-3.6
-3.4
0.6
-7.3
-1.8
-1.9
-1.8
4.9
2.2
-2.0
1.2
0.8
7.6
4.4
-1.6
-5.8
4.2
0.9
22 April 2019
26

Metals Weekly
NOTES
22 April 2019
27

Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
Metals Weekly
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services,
Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOSL is a subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. (MOFSL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of
which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited
(BSE), Metropolitan Stock Exchange Of India Ltd. (MSE) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) & National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and is member of Association of
Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products. Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are available on the website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf
MOSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relative may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject
company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
MOSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short
position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in
the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and
opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even though
there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
Research Analyst may have served as director/officer, etc. in the subject company in the last 12 month period. MOSL and/or its associates may
have received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.
In the last 12 months period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report, MOSL or any of its associates may have:
a)
managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,
b)
received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,
c)
received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.
d)
Subject Company may have been a client of MOSL or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
MOSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. To enhance transparency, MOSL has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in
this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,
the recipients of this report should be aware that MOSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or
brokerage service transactions.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part
or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report
is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied,
is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to
buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOSL will not treat recipients as customers by
virtue of their receiving this report.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the
specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of the stock
Companies where there is interest
Vedanta Ltd
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOSL or
its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to subject company for which Research Team have
expressed their views.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject
MOSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities
and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong)
Private Limited for distribution of research report in Hong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only
available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from
registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOSL is not a registered
investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption
under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional
Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional
investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule
15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S.,
MOSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of
this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject
to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets services license and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore,
as per the approved agreement under Paragraph 9 of Third Schedule of Securities and Futures Act (CAP 289) and Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110) provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “Institutional Investors”, of which some of
whom may consist of "accredited" institutional investors as defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“the SFA”). Accordingly, if a Singapore person is not or ceases to be such an institutional investor, such
Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and inform MOCMSPL.
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced
in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial
instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in
this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of
independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document
(including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including
those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy,
completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the
views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval.
MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform
investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this
into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and
the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or
published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such
distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all
jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall
be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
The person accessing this information specifically agrees
to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSL
or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm
Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com,
Contact No.:022-30801085.
Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MSE); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100.
Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth
management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real
Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
22 April 2019
28