Jagran Prakashan
BSE SENSEX
39,832
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
11,946
JAGP IN
311
34 / 0.5
172 / 92
-1/-8/-44
21
38.7
30 May 2019
4QFY19 Results Update | Sector: Media
CMP: INR115
TP: INR138 (+20%)
Buy
Better ad environment, softer newsprint prices to aid earnings
Turnaround in earnings:
Bucking the downtrend of the past several quarters,
JAGP bounced back with its 4QY19 earnings. Consol. EBITDA grew 15% YoY to
INR1.4b (2% beat) with 130bp margin expansion to 23.3%. This was led by twin
benefits of (a) healthy 8% YoY growth in consol. revenue to INR5.9b (in-line), and
(b) moderating pace of RM cost increase – up 12% YoY (Down 7% QoQ).
Subsequently, PAT at INR665m, grew 13% YoY (11% miss) led by EBITDA growth,
partly offset by high finance cost/taxes. For FY19, revenue grew 3% while
EBITDA/PAT declined 8%/13% YoY.
Concall highlights:
(1) Management mentioned that print ad growth at 8% and
correction in newsprint prices should drive 20% EBITDA growth. (2) Expect 10-
15% savings in RM cost in FY20. (3) If required, Jagran may temporarily give
loans to MBL in the form of interest bearing ICDs for RBNL acquisition.
Earnings growth to regain momentum
:
We believe (a) pick-up in local ad spends
across categories, (b) continuous uptick in Dainik Jagran’s total readership
(according to IRS 1Q2019), and (c) yield improvement should drive 7%/5%
ad/circulation revenue CAGR over FY19-21. This, coupled with healthy 13%
growth in radio business (led by higher utilization at new stations) should drive
8% consol. revenue CAGR over FY19-21. Despite good results we have trimmed
PAT est. by 10% due to (a) cut in EBITDA estimates (as per management
guidance) factoring in higher SG&A and circulation cost, and (b) higher interest
cost due to increased leverage. Yet, we build a healthy EBITDA/PAT CAGR of
18%/25% over FY19-21E on improving revenue growth outlook and softening of
newsprint prices
.
Valuation view
:
Earnings growth is expected to regain momentum; though, we
believe risk from Digital warrants a discount to valuation. Subsequently, we
value JAGP with a target price of INR138, ascribing 10x (~40% discount to three-
year average) P/E to FY21 EPS. Maintain
Buy.
FY18
2Q
3Q
5,665 5,981
2.1
-0.6
4,279 4,352
1,386 1,629
24.5
27.2
340
343
74
76
125
108
1,098 1,318
375
446
34.2
33.8
27
25
695
848
695
848
-18.5
-12.9
12.3
14.2
FY19
2Q
3Q
5,534 6,138
-2.3
2.6
4,538 4,813
996 1,326
18.0
21.6
311
331
53
91
71
158
703 1,062
255
361
36.2
33.9
27
36
421
666
421
666
-39.4
-21.5
7.6
10.8
FY18
FY19
(INR m)
4Q
Est.
FY19E Var (%)
5,856
1.2
6.9
4,501
1.1
1,355
1.8
23.1
13bps
332
46
91
1,067
2.6
317
29.7
0
751
-11.4
751
-11.4
27.2
12.8
Financials & Valuations(INR b)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
2019
23.6
5.3
2.6
8.8
-8.7
63.3
13.3
13.2
13.0
1.8
5.8
2020E
25.5
6.7
3.6
12.2
39.1
71.3
18.2
16.5
9.3
1.6
4.0
2021E
27.4
7.4
4.1
13.8
13.2
80.9
18.2
16.7
8.2
1.4
3.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Revenue from Operations
YoY Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
MI & P/L of Asso. Cos.
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
Margins (%)
1Q
5,913
4.8
4,301
1,613
27.3
328
72
120
1,333
446
33.5
21
866
866
3.3
14.6
4Q
5,480
-2.5
4,276
1,204
22.0
350
49
113
918
290
31.6
37
590
590
-27.2
10.8
1Q
6,026
1.9
4,390
1,636
27.1
307
31
49
1,346
463
34.4
29
854
854
-1.4
14.2
4Q
5,928 23,040 23,626
8.2
0.9
2.5
4,548 17,208 18,289
1,380 5,832 5,337
23.3
25.3
22.6
331 1,361 1,279
83
271
258
129
467
408
1,095 4,667 4,207
392 1,557 1,470
35.8
33.4
34.9
39
111
132
665 2,999 2,605
665 2,999 2,605
12.7
-13.7
-13.1
11.2
13.0
11.0
Aliasgar Shakir-Research analyst(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com);+91
022 6129 1565
Hafeez Patel-Research analyst(Hafeez.Patel@motilaloswal.com);+91
22 6129 1568
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Jagran Prakashan
Other key highlights
Print ad revenue grew by a healthy 10% YoY to INR3.4b (2% beat), led by an
increase in local/government ad spend and higher DAVP rates.
Circulation revenue increased by a meager 2% YoY to INR1.1b (2% beat).
Radio revenues were up 8% YoY to INR819m (5% miss).
Business wise
Dainik Jagran biz revenue grew 9% YoY, leading to EBITDA growth of 12% YoY to
INR1.1b (~78% of consol. EBITDA). Margins expanded 60bp to 28.0%.
Mid-day revenue/EBITDA declined 3%/23% YoY.
Radio revenue/EBITDA increased 8%/17% YoY to INR819m/INR320m, providing
support to consol. EBITDA. Margin expanded 300bp YoY to 39.0%
Valuation and view
Uptick in local ad spends, 25% increase in DAVP rates, uptick in flagship
newspaper - Dainik Jagran’s total readership (as per IRS 1Q 2019) should drive
7% print ad revenue CAGR over FY19-21.
Further, we expect 5% circulation revenue CAGR over the same period on the
back of volume and cover-price increase. Higher utilization at new (Phase III)
stations coupled with yield improvement at legacy stations should drive healthy
13% growth in radio business revenue.
Consequently, we have largely kept our revenue estimate intact; expect consol.
revenue CAGR of 8% over FY19-21.
However, a) cut in EBITDA estimates (as per management guidance) factoring
higher SG&A and circulation cost b.) higher interest cost due to increased
leverage has led to ~10% cut in PAT est. Yet, we build a healthy EBITDA/PAT
CAGR of 18%/25% over FY19-21E on the back of improving revenue growth
outlook and softening of newsprint prices.
We expect RoE to reach 18% by FY21.
Earnings growth is expected to regain momentum though, we believe risk from
digital warrants a discount to valuation. Subsequently, we value JAGP with a
target price of INR138, ascribing 10x (~40% discount to three-year average,) P/E
to FY21 EPS. At CMP, stock trades at a P/E of 9.3x/8.2x FY20/21; ex- Music
Broadcast earnings, the stock trades at an attractive P/E of 7.2x on FY21E EPS.
Maintain
Buy.
Exhibit 1: Valuation summary
Particulars
EPS (INR)
PE multiple (x)
Target Price (INR)
CMP (INR)
Upside (%)
FY21E
14
10
138
115
20%
Source: MOFSL, Company
30 May 2019
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Jagran Prakashan
Exhibit 2: JAGRAN: 1-year forward P/E band
P/E (x)
23.0
20.0
17.0
14.0
11.0
8.0
5.0
Avg (x)
Max (x)
Min (x)
+1SD
-1SD
23.4
18.9
15.2
11.4
7.2
8.0
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
4QFY19 earnings call highlights
Key takeaways
Expect 8% print ad growth and 10% radio growth in FY20.
Management mentioned that 8% print ad growth and correction in newsprint
prices should drive 20% EBITDA growth.
1QFY20 to witness 40-50% of the total benefits due to drop in newsprint prices;
full benefits should flow in from 2QFY20.
Expect 10-15% savings in RM cost in FY20.
If required, Jagran may temporarily give loans to MBL in the form of interest
bearing ICDs for RBNL acquisition.
Govt. category contributed 50% to the total 10% print ad revenue growth.
Categories incl. Auto and Education performed well during the quarter.
Revenue contribution from select categories such as Auto, FMCG and Education
is in double digits; other categories contribute 4-5% to the revenue.
Hardly any benefits were realized from drop in newsprint prices in 4QFY19.
Spot prices range between INR35-40k for indigenous newsprint.
Improvement in circulation revenue is primarily due to increase in cover price.
This was, however, offset by drop in circulation copies.
Print business garners 25% margin and Radio ~35%; Digital business is currently
loss-making, while other business too is a margin dragger.
Digital revenue grew 20% for FY19.
Registered 40% YoY growth in unique users to 45.2m.
Increase in RM cost in 4QFY19 was due to consumption of high priced inventory
bought earlier.
Capex has increased due to purchase of office properties for the MBL and Mid-
Day business, which were earlier operating out of rented space.
Dainik Jagran I-Next has a turnover of INR500m.
Outdoor business generated INR1,000m revenue in FY19 and operates at 5-6%
margins.
Event business has top line of INR500m in FY19.
Royalty payment is ~5% of terrestrial FM revenue; for online FM it would be
INR500m.
3
4QFY19/FY19 performance
30 May 2019
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Jagran Prakashan
Non FCT business contributes ~12% to MBL revenue; it grew 40% YoY in FY19.
Expect 8% print ad growth and 10% radio growth in FY20.
8% print ad revenue growth and correction in newsprint prices should drive 20%
EBITDA growth.
Political ads contribution would be ~5% for 1QFY20.
Expect to witness 40-50% of the total benefits
from
drop in newsprint prices in
1QFY20;
full
benefits should come in from 2QFY20.
Expect 10-15% savings in RM cost in FY20.
Management hinted that it will continue to
take
cover price
increase.
If required, Jagran may temporarily give loans to MBL in the form of interest
bearing ICDs for the RBNL acquisition.
Regardless of the RBNL acquisition, management mentioned that Jagran as a
Group will continue to distribute dividend.
Expect
Dainik Jagran business to report 30% EBITDA margins on the back of 8-
9% ad growth and drop in RM cost.
Going forward, consol. EBITDA margin
should
be a derivative of revenue mix.
Expect outdoor business to reach 10% margins by FY20-21.
Expect
event
business to generate 5-6% margins in FY20.
Mid-Day Gujarati, Inquilab are breaking-even on circulation.
Circulation growth to come from increase in volume as well as yield
improvement.
3QFY19
6,138
4,813
1,326
21.6
331
995
91
158
1,062
361
34
702
-36
666
3QFY19
3,622
1,080
870
567
6,137
3QFY19
1,947
1,058
1,808
4,813
4QFY19
5,928
4,548
1,380
23.3
331
1,049
83
129
1,095
392
36
703
-39
665
4QFY19
3,429
1,096
819
585
5,928
4QFY19
1,795
1,040
1,713
4,548
YoY (%)
8.2
6.4
14.6
130bps
-5.6
22.9
69.0
14.2
19.3
34.9
13bps
12.1
3.2
12.7
YoY (%)
9.8
2.1
7.8
11.3
8.2
YoY (%)
12.2
1.8
3.5
6.4
QoQ (%)
-3.4
-5.5
4.1
168bps
0.0
5.4
-8.4
-18.2
3.1
8.6
182bps
0.2
6.5
-0.1
QoQ (%)
-5.3
1.5
-5.9
3.2
-3.4
QoQ (%)
-7.8
-1.7
-5.3
-5.5
4QFY19E
5,856
4,501
1,355
23.1
332
1,023
46
91
1,067
317
30
751
0
751
4QFY19E
3,368
1,075
865
548
5,856
4QFY19E
1,818
1,071
1,612
4,501
v/s est (%)
1.2
1.1
1.8
13bps
-0.5
2.6
79.9
42.4
2.6
23.7
609bps
-6.3
NA
-11.4
v/s est (%)
1.8
1.9
-5.4
6.8
1.2
v/s est (%)
-1.2
-2.9
6.3
1.1
Business Outlook
Exhibit 3: Consolidated quarterly performance (INR m)
Revenue
Total operating cost
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Tax rate (%)
PAT
MI/Share of associate
Reported PAT
Revenue break-up (INR m)
Print Advertising revenue
Circulation revenue
Radio
Others (incl. digital)
Total
Opex break-up (INR m)
Raw material
Employee
Others (incl. license fees)
Total
4QFY18
5,480
4,276
1,204
22.0
350
854
49
113
918
290
32
628
-37
590
4QFY18
3,122
1,074
759
526
5,480
4QFY18
1,600
1,021
1,654
4,276
Source: MOFSL, Company
30 May 2019
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Jagran Prakashan
Exhibit 4: Business-wise
financial metrics
Revenue (INR m)
Dainik Jagran
Other publication
Radio
Digital
Outdoor and Event
Net revenues
EBITDA (INR m)
Dainik Jagran
Other publication
Radio
Digital
Outdoor and Event
Net EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Dainik Jagran
Other publication
Radio
Digital
Outdoor and Event
Net EBITDA margin
Mid-Day
Revenue
Cost
EBITDA
Margin
4QFY18
3,527
807
759
93
345
5,480
4QFY18
968
52
274
-71
-21
1,204
4QFY18
27.4
6.5
36.0
-76.1
-6.2
22.0
4QFY18
277
236
41
14.8
3QFY19
3,904
931
870
104
389
6,138
3QFY19
988
53
286
-21
20
1,326
3QFY19
25.3
5.7
32.9
-20.5
5.1
21.6
3QFY19
282
260
22
7.9
4QFY19
3,859
802
819
84
391
5,928
4QFY19
1,080
60
320
-61
34
1,380
4QFY19
28.0
7.5
39.0
-72.3
8.8
23.3
4QFY19
269
237
32
11.8
YoY (%)
9.4
-0.6
7.8
-10.1
13.6
8.2
YoY (%)
11.6
14.7
16.8
-14.5
-261.5
14.6
YoY (%)
55
100
302
375
1,497
130
YoY (%)
-3.0
0.4
-22.7
-300.0
QoQ (%)
-1.2
-13.9
-5.9
-19.5
0.7
-3.4
QoQ (%)
9.3
13.6
11.8
183.6
72.0
4.1
QoQ (%)
267
181
618
NM
365
168
QoQ (%)
-4.8
-8.9
42.2
390.1
Exhibit 5: Summary of estimate change
FY20E
Revenue (INR b)
Old
Actual/New
Change (%)
EBITDA (INR b)
Old
Actual/New
Change (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
Old
Actual/New
Change (bp)
PAT (INR b)
Old
Actual/New
Change (%)
EPS (INR)
Old
Actual/New
Change (%)
25.5
25.5
-0.2
7.1
6.7
-5.9
27.9
26.3
-160
4.1
3.6
-11.1
13.8
12.2
-11.1
FY21E
27.5
27.4
-0.3
7.9
7.4
-6.2
28.6
26.9
-168
4.6
4.1
-10.9
15.5
13.8
-10.9
Source: Company, MOFSL
30 May 2019
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Jagran Prakashan
Story in charts
Exhibit 6: Consol. revenue grew 8% YoY (INR b, %)
Consol Revenue (INR b)
EBITDA margin (%)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Exhibit 7: Revenue break-up (%)
Print
Radio
Others (Digital, outdoor,event mgmt, etc)
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 8: Print ad revenue grew by healthy 10% YoY
Print Advertising revenue (INR b)
35
28 30
11
-8 -10 -12
-17
18
2 1 2 4 0
2
-4 -6 0
-9
YoY growth (%)
Exhibit 9: Circulation revenue up meager 2% YoY
Circulation revenue (INR b)
11
10
7 7
10
5 3
2
8 6
6 7
4
YoY growth (%)
1 0 1
4
-2
2
-3
1
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 10: Dainik Jagran business EBITDA margin expanded
60bp YoY
Revenue (INR b)
38
35
34 35
34 34
33 33
32
EBITDA margin (%)
31
34
27
22
33
25
28
Exhibit 11: Other publications’ business EBITDA margin
expanded 100bp YoY
Revenue (INR b)
EBITDA margin (%)
9
13 10 10
9 12 5 10
6
3
9
6
5
-1
6
7
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
30 May 2019
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Jagran Prakashan
Exhibit 12: Radio business EBITDA margin expanded 300bp
YoY
Revenue (INR m)
42
30
37
25
EBITDA margin (%)
21
32
32
31
36
34
33
33
39
10
Exhibit 13: Midday business EBITDA margin contracted
300bp YoY
Revenue (INR m)
22
20
20
13
12
EBITDA margin (%)
17
11
12
8
15
Source: MOFSL, Company
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 14: RM cost stands at ~40% of print revenue
45
46
41
RM cost (INR b)
42
37
37
35
37
37
36
35
35
36
37
36
38
37
RM cost (% of print rev)
43
41
40
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 15: JAGRAN –A snapshot
Print ad revenue (INR b)
YoY (%)
Circulation revenue (INR b)
YoY (%)
Total revenue (INR b)
YoY (%)
EBITDA (INR b)
YoY (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
Revenue mix (%)
Print ad revenue
Circulation revenue
Other segments
FY14
10.3
13
3.6
14
17.0
12
3.8
30
22.5
61
21
18
FY15
10.5
1
3.9
9
17.7
4
4.5
18
25.5
59
22
19
FY16
12.9
23
4.1
5
20.8
17
5.9
31
28.4
62
20
18
FY17
13.9
8
4.3
6
22.8
10
6.4
8
28.0
61
19
20
FY18
13.7
-1
4.3
0
23.0
1
5.8
-9
25.3
59
19
22
FY19
13.7
0
4.4
1
23.6
3
5.3
-8
22.6
58
19
23
FY20E
14.7
7
4.6
5
25.5
8
6.7
25
26.3
58
18
24
FY21E
15.7
7
4.8
5
27.4
8
7.4
10
26.9
57
18
25
Source: Company, MOFSL
30 May 2019
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Jagran Prakashan
Financials and Valuations
Consolidated - Income Statement
Y/E March
Total Income from Operations
Change (%)
Printing costs
Employees Cost
Other Expenses
Total Expenditure
% of Sales
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income
PBT bef. EO Exp.
EO Items
PBT after EO Exp.
Total Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Minority Interest
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
FY14
17,027
11.9
6,088
2,396
4,718
13,202
77.5
3,826
22.5
789
3,037
345
466
3,158
-101
3,057
795
26.0
1
2,261
2,158
-14.3
12.7
FY15
17,698
3.9
6,255
2,634
4,303
13,192
74.5
4,506
25.5
1,035
3,470
369
279
3,380
803
4,183
1,102
26.3
1
3,080
3,081
42.8
17.4
FY16
20,792
17.5
6,287
3,227
5,374
14,887
71.6
5,905
28.4
1,219
4,686
545
499
4,639
440
5,079
1,572
30.9
10
3,497
3,194
28.3
15.4
FY17
22,830
9.8
6,525
3,740
6,170
16,434
72.0
6,396
28.0
1,289
5,107
350
412
5,168
0
5,168
1,675
32.4
17
3,476
3,476
8.8
15.2
FY18
23,040
0.9
6,641
4,003
6,564
17,208
74.7
5,831
25.3
1,361
4,471
271
467
4,667
0
4,667
1,557
33.4
111
2,998
2,998
-13.7
13.0
FY19
23,626
2.5
7,302
4,192
6,795
18,289
77.4
5,337
22.6
1,279
4,058
258
408
4,207
0
4,207
1,470
34.9
132
2,606
2,606
-13.1
11.0
(INR Million)
FY20E
25,486
7.9
6,784
4,528
7,481
18,793
73.7
6,693
26.3
1,354
5,339
344
442
5,437
0
5,437
1,814
33.4
0
3,623
3,623
39.1
14.2
FY21E
27,438
7.7
7,282
4,845
7,937
20,063
73.1
7,375
26.9
1,446
5,929
344
571
6,156
0
6,156
2,054
33.4
0
4,102
4,102
13.2
15.0
Consolidated - Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Equity Share Capital
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Goodwill on Consolidation
Capital WIP
Total Investments
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv.
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Loans and Advances
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOFSL Estimates
FY14
623
8,990
9,612
9
4,658
854
15,133
11,232
4,823
6,409
2,323
316
3,316
6,888
999
3,426
325
2,138
4,119
2,769
15,133
FY15
635
10,704
11,339
10
5,479
725
17,553
11,789
5,858
5,931
2,323
200
3,570
10,524
929
3,636
4,931
1,029
4,995
5,529
17,553
FY16
654
15,656
16,309
334
5,913
1,449
24,005
12,038
1,192
10,846
3,377
1,450
3,625
7,343
669
4,480
502
1,693
2,636
4,707
24,005
FY17
654
20,895
21,549
2,363
3,084
1,701
28,698
14,020
2,478
11,542
3,377
759
5,346
11,092
935
5,158
3,492
1,508
3,419
7,673
28,698
FY18
623
19,774
20,397
2,474
1,476
1,802
26,149
15,226
3,839
11,387
3,377
121
5,228
9,607
664
6,068
1,177
1,699
3,572
6,036
26,149
FY19
593
18,164
18,757
2,260
3,439
2,190
26,645
16,630
5,074
11,556
3,377
33
5,061
10,931
1,678
6,328
1,219
1,706
4,312
6,619
26,645
(INR Million)
FY20E
593
20,539
21,132
2,260
3,439
2,190
29,020
17,230
6,429
10,801
3,377
33
5,061
13,285
607
5,935
5,176
1,567
3,537
9,748
29,020
FY21E
593
23,392
23,985
2,260
3,439
2,190
31,873
17,830
7,875
9,955
3,377
33
5,061
17,256
650
6,390
8,528
1,687
3,808
13,447
31,873
30 May 2019
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Jagran Prakashan
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
FCF per share
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Working Capital Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (Days)
Debtor (Days)
Creditor (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
Net Debt/Equity
FY14
6.6
9.0
29.4
3.0
49.4
FY15
9.4
12.6
34.7
2.9
35.7
FY16
9.8
13.5
49.9
3.5
39.3
FY17
10.6
14.6
65.9
0.0
0.0
FY18
9.6
13.3
65.5
3.0
37.5
11.8
8.5
1.7
1.3
5.2
2.6
10.0
14.3
14.1
15.4
1.5
0.9
11
96
21
2.7
16.5
-0.2
FY19
8.8
11.9
63.3
3.5
47.9
13.0
9.6
1.8
1.3
5.8
3.1
6.5
13.3
13.2
13.2
1.4
0.9
26
98
25
2.5
15.7
-0.2
FY20E
12.2
15.2
71.3
3.5
34.5
9.3
7.5
1.6
1.1
4.0
3.1
17.2
18.2
16.5
18.2
1.5
0.9
9
85
23
3.8
15.5
-0.3
FY21E
13.8
17.0
80.9
3.5
30.4
8.2
6.7
1.4
0.9
3.2
3.1
14.8
18.2
16.7
21.4
1.5
0.9
9
85
23
4.5
17.2
-0.4
1.8
9.0
22.8
18.4
19.7
1.5
1.1
21
73
62
1.7
8.8
0.1
1.7
12.2
29.4
17.8
25.5
1.5
1.0
19
75
72
2.1
9.4
-0.3
2.1
2.1
23.1
18.3
23.7
1.7
0.9
12
79
15
2.8
8.6
0.1
0.0
11.1
18.4
15.9
18.4
1.6
0.8
15
82
23
3.2
14.6
-0.3
Consolidated - Cash Flow
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Interest & Finance Charges
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
Others
CF from Operating incl EO
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
Others
CF from Investments
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
FY14
3,057
890
345
-621
-120
3,551
-245
3,305
-497
2,808
-1,064
-53
-1,614
0
-484
-283
-1,118
-1,884
-193
518
325
FY15
3,380
1,035
369
-701
-506
3,577
808
4,385
-512
3,873
-160
812
140
0
1,556
-288
-1,100
168
4,693
238
4,931
FY16
4,640
1,219
545
-1,358
-513
4,533
-288
4,245
-3,567
678
-777
5,945
1,600
0
-3,733
-621
-1,373
-5,727
119
383
502
FY17
5,169
1,289
350
-1,387
-429
4,992
-219
4,773
-1,145
3,628
-1,442
171
-2,415
3,823
-2,781
-410
0
632
2,990
502
3,492
FY18
4,667
1,361
271
-1,557
-576
4,165
-471
3,694
-568
3,127
118
467
17
-3,023
-1,608
-271
-1,124
-6,026
-2,314
3,492
1,177
FY19
4,212
1,279
258
-1,470
-153
4,127
-830
3,296
-1,360
1,936
167
408
-785
-2,925
1,962
-258
-1,249
-2,470
42
1,178
1,219
FY20E
5,437
1,354
344
-1,814
828
6,149
-442
5,707
-600
5,107
0
442
-158
0
0
-344
-1,249
-1,592
3,957
1,219
5,176
(INR m)
FY21E
6,156
1,446
344
-2,054
-347
5,545
-571
4,974
-600
4,374
0
571
-29
0
0
-344
-1,249
-1,592
3,353
5,176
8,528
30 May 2019
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Jagran Prakashan
NOTES
30 May 2019
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Jagran Prakashan
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the
inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL)* is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the
Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial
products. MOSL is a subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. (MOFSL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd.
(NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) & National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX) for its stock broking
activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) & National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and is member of Association of Mutual
Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products. Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are available on the website at
http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/List%20of%20Associate%20companies.pdf
MOSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and
buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other
compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have
any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even
though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report
MOSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should
be aware that MOSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant
banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are available on the website at
https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental
research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from
MOSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to Subject Company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability
or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong
Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst
Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of
research report in Hong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity
to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these
securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not
located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state
laws in the United States. In addition MOSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together
with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment
services provided by MOSL , including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to
"Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This
document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only
available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the
U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct
business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International
Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S.
registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public
appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets
services license and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore.As per the approved agreement under Paragraph 9 of Third Schedule of Securities and Futures Act (CAP 289) and
Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110) provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary Authority of Singapore. Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL
in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “Institutional Investors”,
of which some of whom may consist of "accredited" institutional investors as defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“the
SFA”). Accordingly, if a Singapore person is not or ceases to be such an institutional investor, such Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and
inform MOCMSPL.
Specific Disclosures
1 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company.
2 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
3 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
4 MOSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report
5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company
6 MOSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
7 MOSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
8 MOSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
9 MOSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
10 MOSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company
****************************************************************
****************************************************************
30 May 2019
11
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Jagran Prakashan
The associates of MOSL may have:
-
financial interest in the subject company
-
actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
-
received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
-
other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever
on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of
MOSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
-
acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
-
be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the
company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
-
received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
The associates of MOSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not
consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOSL also earns DP income from
clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the
research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent
of MOSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature.
The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty,
representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The
report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial
instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOSL will not treat recipients as
customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or
distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for
informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing
in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances.
The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this
document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this
document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views
expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade
securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of
the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and
should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make
modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from
time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to
perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a
separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of
information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or
may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or
entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,
regulation or which would subject MOSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all
jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither
the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue
or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.
The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSL or any of its affiliates
or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse
and further agrees to hold MOSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing
this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980
4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080
1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id:
na@motilaloswal.com,
Contact No.:022-38281085.
Registration details: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412.
AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual
Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd.
is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. *Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate
products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench. The existing registration no(s) of MOSL would be used until receipt of new MOFSL registration numbers.
30 May 2019
12