E
CO
S
COPE
Real GDP growth weakens in 3QFY20
Could moderate further to ~4.5% this quarter
28 February 2020
The Economy Observer
Real GVA/GDP grew 4.5%/4.7% YoY in 3QFY20, higher than our estimate. Nominal GDP growth stood at 7.7% compared
to 6.4% in 2QFY20 and 11.4% in the year-ago period.
While the CSO revised GDP/GVA growth to 5.6%/5.4% from 5.0%/4.9% for 1QFY20, the numbers for 2QFY20 were
revised upward to 5.1%/4.8% from 4.5%/4.3%. This means that while majority of market participants were expecting an
improvement in GDP growth in 3QFY20, revisions actually imply that growth has fallen, exactly in line with our
expectation of weaker growth during the quarter.
Weakness in real GDP growth was entirely led by investments, as consumption (largely driven by government spending)
and net exports grew decently during the quarter. In fact, GDP growth excluding government consumption expenditure
was at only 3.9% for 3QFY20. Further, external trade did well in 3QFY20 as the decline in imports was much steeper
than exports, similar to that in the past two quarters.
Weakness in GVA growth was primarily on account of a slump in industrial activity, as both agriculture and services
sector growth accelerated in 3QFY20.
Moreover, recently released fiscal deficit data showed that government spending declined 6.4% YoY in Jan’20. We
expect fiscal spending to decline further in the coming two months of FY20, leading to its sharp decline in 4QFY20.
Considering fiscal spending was the primary supporter of growth all this while, we expect real GDP to weaken further in
the last quarter of the year and come in at ~4.5%. Interestingly, the CSO has retained its full-year FY20 growth forecast
at 5%, indicating expectation of 4.7% growth in 4QFY20, similar to 3QFY20.
I. GDP growth at multi-year low in 3QFY20
Real GDP weakens in 3QFY20…:
Real GDP growth decelerated to 4.7% YoY in
3QFY20 from 5.1% in 2QFY20 and 5.6% in 3QFY19. The deceleration was entirely
led by a second consecutive decline in investment, as consumption (supported
by fiscal spending) and net exports exhibited decent growth during the quarter
(Exhibit 1).
3QFY20 growth was exactly in line with consensus but higher than
our estimate of 4.1%.
…led by second decline in investment in 23 quarters:
Gross capital formation
(GCF) declined 4.5% YoY in 3QFY20, higher than the decline of 3.3% in the
previous quarter and versus multi-year-high growth of 11.5% YoY in 3QFY19.
The drop in investment in 3QFY20 is steeper than our estimate of a decline of
2.8% YoY
(Exhibit 2).
Additionally, faster decline in imports compared to exports
during the quarter led to modest contribution to GDP growth by net exports in
3QFY20
(Exhibit 3).
Consumption growth was decent during the quarter:
As expected,
consumption growth did decelerate in 3QFY20 but at a slower pace. It grew at
6.7% YoY in 3QFY20 versus 7.0% in 2QFY20 and 3QFY19
(Exhibit 4).
The slight
deceleration was led by slower growth of 11.8% YoY (v/s 13.2% in 2QFY20) in
government consumption expenditure, as private expenditure grew faster at
5.9% compared to 5.6% in 2QFY20. Nevertheless, still strong growth in fiscal
spending by the government held up overall consumption growth. In fact, GDP
excluding government consumption expenditure was at only 3.9% in 3QFY20.
Nikhil Gupta – Research Analyst
(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1555
Yaswi Agarwal
– Research Analyst
(Yaswi.Agarwal@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 7193 4196
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
II. GVA growth too decelerates in 3QFY20
GVA growth slows to 4.5%…:
GVA growth weakened to a record low of 4.5%
YoY in 3QFY20 from 4.8% a quarter ago and 5.6% in the year-ago period on
account of the weakness in industrial activity (Exhibit
5).
The number was higher
than both our estimate of 4.0% and consensus of 4.4%.
…led by moderation in industrial activity:
Drag in GVA growth was led by only
0.1% YoY growth in industrial activity compared to growth of 0.8% YoY in
2QFY20 and 5.0% YoY in the year-ago period. Manufacturing, which accounts
for almost three fourths of industrial activity, contracted for the second
consecutive quarter by 0.2% in 3QFY20 versus growth of 5.2% in 3QFY19.
Further, electricity, gas and water supply too contracted and construction
witnessed deceleration in growth during the quarter. Only mining activity
exhibited higher growth in 3QFY20 (Exhibit
6).
Agriculture and services sector grew faster:
Growth in agriculture accelerated
to 3.5% YoY in 3QFY20 from 3.1% in 2QFY20 and services sector growth inched
up by 10bp to 7.4% in 3QFY20 versus a quarter ago.
III. Revisions in 1Q/2QFY20 numbers mean our forecasts were in line
CSO revised GDP and GVA numbers for the first two quarters of the year. While
GDP growth for 1Q/2QFY20 has been revised to 5.6%/5.1% from 5.0%/4.5%,
GVA growth has been revised to 5.4%/4.8% from 4.9%/4.3%.
This means that while majority of market participants were expecting an
improvement in GDP growth in 3QFY20, revisions imply that growth has fallen,
exactly in line with our expectation of weaker growth during the quarter.
IV. Tapering off of fiscal spending implies even lower growth in 4QFY20
Recently released fiscal deficit data showed that government spending declined
6.4% YoY in Jan’20. We expect fiscal spending to decline further in the coming
two months of FY20, leading to its sharp decline in 4QFY20. Considering fiscal
spending was the primary supporter of growth all this while, we expect real GDP
to weaken further in the last quarter of the year and come in at ~4.5%.
Interestingly, the CSO has retained its full-year FY20 growth forecast at 5%,
indicating expectation of 4.7% growth in 4QFY20, similar to 3QFY20.
Exhibit 1:
GDP growth weakened further in 3QFY20…
Consumption
Net exports
GDP (% YoY)
3.8
5.6
4.7
(3.7)
(pp)
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
(pp)
5.8
1.2 0.2
5.3
5.6
0.1
1.7
3.8
(0.1)
Real GCF (% YoY)
Discrepancies
Exhibit 2: …primarily on account of collapse in investment
Discrepancy
Net exports
0.8
(5.4)
0.5
(0.6)
(6) (5) (4) (3) (2) (1)
0
1
2
3
4
5
3.9
5.1
4.7
-1.1
(0.4)
4.7
0.2
1.5
GCF
GCE
PCE
4.6
-1.6
*as compared to 3QFY19
Source: CSO, MOFSL
28 February 2020
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Exhibit 3: Imports declined faster than exports during the
quarter
24
18
12
6
0
(6)
(12)
(18)
Q3 FY16
Q3 FY17
Q3 FY18
Q3 FY19
-5.5
-11.2
(% YoY)
Exports
Imports
Exhibit 4: While consumption growth was decent, real
investment declined in 3QFY20
16
12
8
4
0
(4)
(8)
Q3 FY16
Q3 FY17
Q3 FY18
Q3 FY19
-4.8
Q3 FY20F
Consumption (% YoY)
(% YoY)
6.7
Real investments#
Q3 FY20F
* Private + government
# excluding valuables
Source: CSO, MOFSL
Exhibit 5: Contribution to real GVA growth increased only in
agriculture
Agriculture
(pp)
5.6
5.7
Industry
5.4
Services
GVA (% YoY)
Exhibit 6: Manufacturing led GVA growth weakness in
3QFY20
Community etc
Finance etc
Trade etc
Construction
Electricity etc
Manufacturing
M&Q
Agriculture
* Over 3QFY20
(1.0)
0.2
0.3 (pp)
Source: CSO, MOFSL
(0.3)
(0.5)
(0.2)
0.2
0.2
4.8
4.5
3.7
1.5
0.4
3QFY19
4.4
3.8
1.2
0.4
1QFY20
4.3
0.2
0.4
2QFY20
3.8
0.0
0.6
3QFY20
1.4
4QFY19
Source: CSO, MOFSL
Exhibit 7: GVA/GDP and key components (YoY %)
Agriculture etc.
Industry
Mining & quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity
Construction
Services
Trade, hotels etc.
Finance, insurance etc.
Community etc.
GVA at basic prices
Private cons exp (PCE)
Govt. cons exp (GCE)
Gross Cap For (GCF)
Gross Fixed Cap Formation
Net exports
Exports
Less:
Imports
Discrepancies
GDP at market price
FY18
5.0
5.9
5.1
5.9
8.6
5.6
7.8
6.2
11.9
6.9
7.4
15.0
10.4
9.3
4.7
17.6
42.3
7.2
FY19
2.9
1.3
6.9
7.0
8.7
6.9
7.4
8.6
6.6
8.1
9.2
9.0
10.0
12.5
15.4
(21.8)
6.8
% YoY
3QFY19
2.0
5.0
(4.4)
5.2
9.5
6.6
7.4
7.8
6.5
8.1
5.6
7.0
7.0
11.5
11.4
21.9
15.8
10.0
5.6
2QFY20 3QFY20
3.1
3.5
0.8
0.1
0.2
3.2
(0.4)
(0.2)
3.9
(0.7)
2.9
0.3
7.3
7.4
5.8
5.9
7.1
7.3
10.1
9.7
4.8
4.5
5.6
5.9
13.2
11.8
(3.3)
(4.5)
(4.1)
(5.2)
0.9
1.0
(2.1)
(5.5)
(9.3)
(11.2)
5.1
4.7
Contribution to GDP/GVA growth (percent points, pp)
3QFY19
3QFY20
3QFY20
0.4
0.4
0.6
1.5
0.2
0.0
(0.1)
0.0
0.1
0.9
(0.1)
(0.0)
0.2
0.1
(0.0)
0.5
0.2
0.0
3.7
4.3
3.8
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.8
1.4
1.1
1.3
1.3
5.6
4.8
4.5
4.1
3.1
3.4
0.7
1.6
1.2
3.8
(1.1)
(1.6)
3.5
(1.3)
(1.7)
0.3
0.0
0.0
3.1
(0.4)
(1.2)
2.3
(2.3)
(2.7)
(3.7)
(0.4)
0.2
5.6
5.1
4.7
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), MOFSL
28 February 2020
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
NOTES
28 February 2020
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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28 February 2020
6