20 April 2020
4QFY20 Results Update | Sector: Technology
Infosys
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
CMP: INR653
TP: INR775 (+19%)
Buy
COVID-19 leads to guidance withdrawal!
Cautious commentary on expected lines; Reiterate Buy
INFO IN
4,571
2780.7 / 35
847 / 511
6/5/10
7240
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2020 2021E 2022E
Sales
908
915 1,015
EBIT Margin (%)
21.3
20.6
22.2
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
Ratios
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div Yield (%)
166
39.0
5.3
145
25.3
20.4
44.8
16.7
4.5
13.3
2.7
156
36.8
(5.7)
169
21.8
17.9
54.4
17.7
3.9
12.2
3.1
183
43.1
17.1
188
Despite COVID-19 impact on utilization, Infosys was able to defend its gross
margins (QoQ, 33.4%), which is comforting. Large deal signings in Mar’20
(~USD1.7b v/s USD 1.8b in Dec’19) were impacted. However, it is important
to note that run-rate of new deal wins showed a meaningful increase (~50%
QoQ). Commentary around continued and broad-based deal wins over the
previous ~4 weeks is encouraging. In addition, anecdotal evidence of deal
transitions/ramp-ups in a remote manner is reassuring. We expect supply-
side aspects to ease off even as Work from Home (WFH) may outlast
lockdowns for a significant share of the workforce. In light of the heightened
uncertainty in the near term, we were not taken aback by the cautious
outlook of the company. Beyond near-term challenges, Infosys (INFO)
should be a key beneficiary of digital IT spends by enterprises.
We have marginally cut our FY21/FY22E EPS estimates as we build in heavier
pricing pressure, the impact of which is partially offset by the change in our
exchange rate assumption. Reiterating
Buy.
22.9
Revenue and normalized EBIT margins largely in line
19.3
In 4QFY20, revenue (USD)/EBIT (INR)/PAT increased 4%/7%/6% YoY (v/s our
46.4
estimates of 5%/8%/3% YoY).
15.1
3.5
10.0
3.1
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Mar-20 Dec-19 Mar-19
13.2
13.2
12.8
24.7
24.0
22.9
31.4
32.2
34.5
30.7
30.7
29.8
FII Includes depository receipts
As client approvals for WFH were not received in certain cases, revenue
witnessed ~USD32m (~1% revenue) drop.
INFO witnessed broad-based decline across geographies with its Indian
business witnessing the most pronounced impact (-8.5% QoQ, USD).
Barring Hi Tech (+2.5% QoQ, USD), other verticals reported revenue decline.
While Retail witnessed only a marginal decline (0.1% QoQ, USD), we believe
the full impact of COVID-19 is yet to come.
Adjusted for a couple of one-offs (earlier than usual recognition of visa costs
and higher than usual CSR expenses), EBIT margins were largely in line with
expectations.
Decline in utilization (-90bp impact), H-1B visa costs (-40bp impact) and
receivables hit (-50bp impact) were the margin headwinds. INR depreciation
(+50bp impact), reduced travel and other cost optimization measures
(+50bp impact) were the key margin tailwinds.
Large deal bookings in 4QFY20 stood at ~USD1.7b (~56% - New deals).
The company had strong collections with DSO declining by 4 days.
The Company hinted at no change in capital return policy.
In line with our expectations, the company suspended its tradition of guiding
for revenue growth/profitability because of the heightened uncertainty.
Despite encouraging medium-term prospects, INFO has hinted at a
challenging near term with no clear view on recovery.
Deal activity even for the previous 4 weeks was stated to be broad based.
While deal pipeline is still strong, conversion is expected to slow down.
Cautious management commentary
Sudheer Guntupalli – Research analyst
(Sudheer.Guntupalli@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 5036 2749
Research analyst: Mohit Sharma
(Mohit.Sharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91226129 1531/
Heenal Gada
(Heenal.Gada@motilaloswal.com); +912250362654
(Mohit.Sharma@MotilalOswal.com)
refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Investors are advised to
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.