4 May 2020
4QFY20 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
Marico
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
MRCO IN
1,290
367.2 / 4.9
404 / 234
-6/-1/-2
820
CMP: INR284
TP: INR350 (+23% )
Buy
Resilient portfolio; valuation comfort underpins Buy rating
Brief view on results and stock
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March
2020 2021E 2022E
Sales
73.2 73.8 84.1
Sales Gr. (%)
-0.3
0.9 13.9
EBITDA
14.7 14.6 16.6
EBITDA Margin (%)
20.1 19.8 19.7
Adj. PAT
10.5 10.4 11.9
Adj. EPS (INR)
8.1
8.1
9.2
EPS Gr. (%)
13.4 -0.7 13.8
BV/Sh.(INR)
23.4 30.2 30.6
Ratios
RoE (%)
34.9 30.1 30.3
RoCE (%)
31.9 27.3 27.7
Payout (%)
96.0 94.8 95.4
Valuations
P/E (x)
34.9 35.1 30.9
P/BV (x)
12.1
9.4
9.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
24.7 24.1 21.3
Div. Yield (%)
2.7
2.7
3.1
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-19 Sep-19
Promoter
59.6
59.6
DII
9.7
8.8
FII
23.9
25.0
Others
6.8
6.6
FII Includes depository receipts
Marico’s (MRCO) 4QFY20 sales were marginally below estimates on account
of the COVID-19 led lockdown headwinds. However, EBITDA and margins
were above estimates due to benign commodity costs and lower ad spends.
Further, lower-than-expected tax rate led to the PAT beat.
We believe that MRCO’s relatively resilient portfolio of products should
help it weather the impact on sales and earnings decline in FY21, unlike
several of its peers. Valuations appear attractive at 32x FY22E EPS, below
3/5/10-year average for a business that has better earnings visibility
compared to peers. Maintain
Buy.
4QFY20 consol. net sales declined 7% YoY
to INR15b (v/s est. INR15.4b).
Overall volume declined 4% YoY while EBITDA decreased 4.1% YoY to
INR2.8b (v/s est. INR2.7b). PBT declined 3% YoY to INR2.6b (in-line). Adj.
PAT declined 3.3% YoY to INR2b (v/s est. INR1.8b).
4QFY20 consol. gross margins expanded by 20bp YoY
to 49.3%. EBITDA
margin expanded 60bp YoY to 18.9% (v/s est. 17.4%) during the quarter.
4QFY20 standalone sales/EBITDA/adj. PAT declined 7.9%/4%/5.8% YoY.
EBITDA margins expanded 80bp YoY to 18.4%. Domestic volume declined
3% (in-line).
FY20 consol. sales/EBITDA/PAT growth stood at -0.3%/+10.9%/+13.4% YoY.
Domestic segmental performance:
Volume growth of Parachute Rigid/
Saffola (Refined Edible Oil)/ VAHO stood at -8%/+25%/-11% with value
growth at -12%/+25%/-18% YoY.
Primary volumes were expected in mid-single-digit if not for the COVID-19
impact.
Parachute
volumes had recovered in 4QFY20 (before the COVID-19
impact) compared to the previous two quarters.
90-95% of MRCO’s portfolio gained market share displaying resilience.
MRCO has recently attained 70-80% of normal working level (operations in
plants) after being severely impacted in the second half of Mar’20.
MRCO has a more resilient portfolio of products than its peers to withstand
the COVID-19 led sales and earnings decline in FY21. This is possible on
account of (a) recovery in
Parachute
volumes before the COVID-19 impact,
(b) successful turnaround and strong growth witnessed in
Saffola
edible oils
and foods, and (c) better outlook for the international business compared
to peers. Further, outlook on material costs is also better than the earlier
expectation of a possible inflation.
Longer-term growth trajectory and eventual rerating would be determined
by the success of its new products (an area with limited success for now).
Nevertheless, valuations appear attractive at 32x FY22E EPS, below 3/5/10-
year average of 44.9x/43x/35.5x, for a business that has better earnings
visibility compared to peers. Maintain
Buy
with TP of INR350.
Small miss on topline, EBITDA and Profits ahead of expectations
Highlights from management commentary
Dec-18
59.7
6.0
26.5
7.8
Valuation and view
Krishnan Sambamoorthy – Research analyst
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1545
Research analyst: Pooja Doshi
(Pooja.Doshi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1573 |
Dhairya Dhruv
(Dhairya.Dhruv@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1547
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
3 September 2019
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.