Tata Consumer Products
BSE SENSEX
34,916
S&P CNX
10,302
30 June 2020
Annual Report Update | Sector: Consumers
CMP: INR388
TP: INR450 (+16%)
Merger paving way for next phase of growth
Buy
Tata Consumer Products’ (TCPL) FY20 annual report highlights the company’s efforts to
leverage the ‘Tata’ brand, create a single FMCG-focused company and participate in
India’s INR30t consumption story. FY20 was a milestone year as TCPL completed merger
with Consumer Products business of Tata Chemicals (now India Food business), resulting
in 33%/64% increase in revenue/EBITDA to INR96.3b/~INR13b. Key highlights below:
India food business to lead next leg of growth
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Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
TATACONS IN
631
355.1 / 4.7
408 / 214
-2/37/55
1453
65.3
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
FY20 2021E 2022E
Sales
96.4 104.2 114.8
EBITDA
12.9 14.6 16.9
Adj. PAT
7.3
8.5 10.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.4 14.0 14.8
Cons. Adj. EPS (INR) 8.0
9.3 11.2
EPS Gr. (%)
66.4 16.1 21.3
BV/Sh. (INR)
150 156
163
Ratios
Net D:E
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div. Yield (%)
FCF Yield (%)
(0.1)
6.9
8.5
46.5
48.6
26.4
0.9
4.8
(0.1)
6.1
7.8
31.1
41.8
23.4
1.4
3.1
(0.1)
7.1
9.1
28.7
34.5
20.1
1.6
4.5
Revenue from the recently merged Consumer Products business (now India
Food business) of Tata Chemicals grew 12% YoY (to INR20.6b), majorly driven
by
Tata Salt
and increased contribution from
Tata Sampann.
EBIT margins
contracted by 410bp to 12.9% (or INR2.7b), largely due to aggressive expansion
initiatives undertaken by the company in this segment.
The India Food business – comprising
Tata Salt and Tata Sampan,
which
includes pulses, spices and condiments, and ready-to-cook (RTC) – should
orchestrate a major shift in the market from the unorganized to the organized
sector. Thus, the segment should drive the next phase of TCPL’s growth.
India’s pulses/spices markets is currently valued at INR1,500b/INR600b. Out of
this, the share of organized branded players is a mere 1%/30%. Both segments
are estimated to post 15% CAGR, thus leaving enough room for branded
players like
Tata Sampann
to increase share and benefit the most.
Moreover,
Tata Sampann
is expected to reap further benefits by leveraging (a)
strong ‘Tata’ brand name, which is associated with trust and safety, and (b) the
merged entity’s distributor/retail network.
Further, under the current circumstances,
Tata Sampann
is expected to gain
from the shift toward branded products in the F&B segment, which is primarily
due to increased awareness, hygiene and health reasons.
In the salt segment, TCPL enjoys healthy market share of ~30% (market value
at INR70b) among branded players. With robust growth of 16% in the F&B
industry, the salt segment is also expected to report healthy growth. Expansion
of capacity from 1MMT to 1.2MMT at the Mithapur facility should support
volume growth.
India beverage business to sustain growth
India’s tea market is currently valued at INR260b and is dominated by
organized players with 65-70% market share. While tea is a highly popular
beverage in India, there is also an increasing preference in the country for
Green/Black tea due to their health benefits. Thus, we believe the segment is
poised to grow in the coming days.
TCPL’s India beverage business saw revenue/ EBIT growth of 7%/2% to
INR33.8b/INR4.7b (EBIT margin down by 70bp to 14%). Volume growth stood
at 7% in FY20.
Sumant Kumar - Research Analyst
(Sumant.Kumar@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1569
Research Analyst: Darshit Shah
(Darshit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1546;
Yusuf Inamdar
(Yusuf.Inamdar@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1553
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.