Motilal Oswal Financial Services

9 October 2020

COPE

The Economy Observer

RBI to buy State government securities...

…while keeping policy interest rates unchanged



In line with our expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), along with its three newly elected external

members, has kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 4%. The reverse repo rate and Bank rate too stands unchanged at

3.35% and 4.25%, respectively. The decision to keep the policy rates unchanged and continue with the accommodative

stance was taken unanimously. However, the decision to keep the accommodative stance

at least during the current

financial year and into the next financial year

was taken with 5-1 majority (Prof. Jayanth R. Varma was against this

formulation).



For the first time since Mar’20, the RBI shared its macroeconomic forecasts. The MPC expects inflation to remain above

the 4% target by 1QFY22. CPI inflation is projected at 6.8% in 2QFY21, which should ease to 4.3% by 1QFY22 with

balanced risks. On the growth front, the MPC expects real GDP to contract 9.5% YoY in FY21, closer to the market

consensus but worse-than-our

expectations,

with risks tilted on the downside.



The highlight of the monetary policy, however, was the announcement to conduct Open Market Operations (OMOs) in

State Development Loans (SDLs) to improve liquidity and facilitate efficient pricing. While the news is highly welcomed

by the bond market, the quantum/calendar of these OMOs has not been disclosed yet. This is a positive step toward

helping the states reduce their cost of borrowing at a time when their revenues are already very

low.



Additionally, measures such as on-tap Targeted Long-Term Repo Operations (TLTROs), extension of held-to-maturity

(HTM) category within the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) from 19.5% to 22% of NDTL up to end-Mar’22, wider exposure

limits for retail loans and allowing banks to link their new housing loans only to Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio (and not with

the size of the loan), are all steps that would provide incremental support to severely affected sectors of the economy.

Further, the RBI also announced OMO purchase of central government securities worth INR200b next week.



Overall, while details of OMOs in SDLs and specific sectors, which will benefit due to TLTROs would be keenly watched,

we believe that the string of policy decisions taken on 9 Oct’20 were more than what the markets were expecting.

Finally, we believe that India’s real GDP will surprise on the upside, while the headline inflation will remain above 4.5%

in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, we don’t expect any rate actions over the next few quarters. However, as the RBI

has showed us, the monetary policy is much more than interest rates and this is likely to be the case going forward as

well.

I. Repo rate kept unchanged and ‘accommodative’ stance maintained



Repo rate stands at 4%...:

In line with

our expectations, the MPC kept policy

repo rate unchanged at 4%. The reverse repo rate and Bank rate too stands

unchanged at 3.35% and 4.25%, respectively. The decision to keep policy rates

unchanged and continue with the accommodative stance was taken

unanimously. However, the decision to keep the accommodative stance

at least

during the current financial year and into the next financial year

was taken with

5-1 majority (Prof. Jayanth R. Varma was against this formulation)

(Exhibit 1)

…as priority remains sluggish growth:

For the first time since Mar’20, the RBI

shared its macroeconomic forecasts. The MPC expects inflation to remain above

the 4% target by 1QFY22. CPI inflation is projected at 6.8% in 2QFY21, which

should ease to 4.3% by 1QFY22 with balanced risks. On the growth front, the

MPC expects real GDP to contract 9.5% YoY in FY21, closer to the market

consensus but worse-than-our

expectations,

with risks tilted on the downside.

(Exhibit 3).

Nikhil Gupta – Research Analyst

(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com)

Yaswi Agarwal

– Research Analyst

(Yaswi.Agarwal@motilaloswal.com)

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.



Other important measures announced by the RBI:

More than the decision on

policy rates, the MPC narrowed down on a numbers of other decisions, which in

our view may turn out to be very effective going forward. A snapshot of these

measures are as follow:



The highlight of the monetary policy, however, was the announcement to

conduct OMOs in state government securities, called SDLs, to improve

liquidity and facilitate efficient pricing. While the news is highly welcomed

by the bond market, the quantum/calendar of these OMOs has not been

disclosed yet.

This is a positive step toward helping the states reduce their

cost of borrowing at a time when their revenues are already very

low.



The RBI will conduct on tap TLTROs with tenors of up to three years for a

total amount of up to INR1t at a floating rate linked to the policy repo rate

(currently 4%). The scheme will be available up to end-Mar’21 and will be

flexible with regards to enhancement of the amount and period after review

of the response to the scheme. Such loans, once availed by the banks, have

to be deployed by them either in corporate bonds, commercial papers and

non-convertible debentures issued by entities in specific sectors (not

specified by the RBI).

We believe such availability of loans to severely

affected sectors is a positive step. However, it is not a new measure and is

likely to have only incremental benefit.



In respect of the SLR securities acquired on or after 1 Sep’20, the RBI had

increased limits under the HTM category from 19.5% to 22% of Net Demand

and Time Liabilities, up to end-Mar’21. It has now been extended up to end-

Mar’22 after which the limit will be brought back to 19.5% in a phased

manner.



In order to increase credit flow to individuals and small business segments

(with turnover of up to INR500m), the exposure limit of retail loans have

been revised upwards from erstwhile INR50m to INR75m.



To largely aid the real estate sector from the perils of COVID-19, the RBI has

allowed banks to link their risk weights of new housing loans (up to end-

Mar’22) only to the LTV ratio (and not with the size of loan). Such loans will

attract a risk weight of 35% where LTV is <= 80%, and a risk weight of 50%

where LTV is => 80% but less than or equal to 90%.



Lastly, the RBI has announced OMO purchase of central government

securities worth INR200b next week on 15

Oct’20.

OMO’s calendar/quantum to drive bond markets:

Overall, while the details of

OMOs in SDLs and specific sectors, which will benefit due to TLTROs would be

keenly watched, we believe that the string of policy decisions taken on 9

Oct’20 were more than what the markets were expecting. Finally, we believe

that India’s real GDP will surprise on the upside, while the headline inflation will

remain above 4.5% in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, we don’t expect any

rate actions over the next few quarters. However, as the RBI has showed us, the

monetary policy is much more than interest rates and this is likely to be the case

going forward as well.

9 October 2020

Exhibit 1: RBI has kept policy rates unchanged…

4.25

4.00

3.35

Exhibit 2: …and system liquidity still in ample surplus

(1)

(3)

(5)

(7)

(%)

Repo

Reverse repo

MSF

(% of NDTL)

Liquidity deficit

Updated as of 7 Oct’20

Source: RBI, MOFSL

Exhibit 3: Inflation is expected to retreat to ~4% in 1QFY22…

Exhibit 4: …and GDP might contract 9.5% YoY in FY21

Source: RBI, MOFSL

Exhibit 5: CPI inflation came in flat at 6.7% YoY in Aug’20…

Aug-16

Exhibit 6: …and GDP declined by nearly a quarter in 1QFY21

11.0

Real GDP growth (% YoY)

Headline CPI

(% YoY)

Core CPI*

6.7

5.4

1.0

-9.0

-19.0

-29.0

-23.9

Aug-17

Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), MOFSL

* ‘Housing’, ‘Clothing and Footwear’ and ‘ Miscellaneous items’

9 October 2020

NOTES

9 October 2020

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

BUY

SELL

NEUTRAL

UNDER REVIEW

NOT RATED

Expected return (over 12-month)

>=15%

< - 10%

> - 10 % to 15%

Rating may undergo a change

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In

case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30

days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

Disclosures:

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations,

is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a subsidiary

company of Passionate Investment Management Pvt. Ltd.. (PIMPL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on

www.motilaloswal.com.

MOFSL

(erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOFSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of

India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its

stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member

of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority of India (IRDA) as Corporate Agent for insurance

products. Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at

http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf

Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at

https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx

MOFSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relative may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOFSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst may have

actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company in the past 12 months.

MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their

relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in

any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as

an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.;

however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of

the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.

Research Analyst may have served

as director/officer, etc. in the subject company in the past 12 months. MOFSL and/or its associates may have received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.

In the past 12 months , MOFSL or any of its associates may have:

managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,

received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,

received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.

Subject Company may have been a client of MOFSL or its associates in the past 12 months.

MOFSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. To enhance transparency,

MOFSL has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOFSL and / or its

affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOFSL may

have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or

brokerage service transactions. Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial

holdings, It does not consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income

from clients which are not considered in above disclosures. Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only.

While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.).

MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not considered in above disclosures.

Terms & Conditions:

This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be

altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOFSL. The report is

based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from

publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made

as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not

constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers

simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research

analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement

Companies where there is interest

Analyst ownership of the stock

A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at

www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.

Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and

Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOFSL research activity

and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to subject company for which Research Team have expressed their views.

Regional Disclosures (outside India)

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use

would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.

For Hong Kong:

This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities

and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal

Oswal Financial Services Limited(SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Hong

Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is

only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction

where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in

Hong Kong.

9 October 2020

For U.S:

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state

laws in the United States. In addition MOFSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934

Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by

MOFSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as

defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on

by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in

only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and

interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a

chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be

executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.

The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered

broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading

securities held by a research analyst account.

For Singapore:

In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets services

license and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore,

as per the approved agreement under Paragraph 9 of Third Schedule of Securities and Futures Act (CAP 289) and Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110)

provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary Authority of Singapore. Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this

report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “Institutional Investors”, of which some of whom may consist of "accredited" institutional investors

as defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“the SFA”). Accordingly, if a Singapore person is not or ceases to be such an institutional investor, such

Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and inform MOCMSPL.

Disclaimer:

The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or

distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose

and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes

investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions

expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific

recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems

necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its

own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those

involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty,

express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this

document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior

notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their

directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They

may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities

functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of

information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not

subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to

any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of

or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any

registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in

whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall

be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.

The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not

to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses,

costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.

Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263; Website

www.motilaloswal.com.

CIN No.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022

7188 1000.

Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI:

ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579 ;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration

No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.:

INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond,

NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered

through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL. Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk

Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk,

read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.

* MOFSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company

Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.

9 October 2020