Sector Update | 12 October 2020
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas
CGDs to record 10% volumes CAGR
over next decade
Marketing margins: more than firefighting…
…in a poor refining margin environment
SG GRM witnessed a downward spiral to USD3.2/bbl in FY20 from USD4.9/bbl in FY19
(USD7.2/bbl in FY18). The margin plummeted further to loss of USD0.1/bbl in FY21YTD.
Decline in FY20 was primarily led by massive refining capacity additions to meet
incremental diesel demand on account of IMO 2020. Furthermore, the margin
worsened in FY21YTD due to COVID-led demand destruction.
However, the deregulation of auto fuel prices has come as a boon. We estimate that
increase of INR0.7/0.5/0.3/lit in gross marketing margin of petrol/diesel would suffice
for a USD1/bbl loss in refining margin of IOCL/BPCL/HPCL respectively.
Gross marketing margins of auto fuels stand at INR3.8–5.8/lit for petrol and diesel,
27–94% above the erstwhile normalized gross margin of INR3/lit.
Oil marketing companies (OMCs) are trading at a discount to one-year forward PB of
25-51% and PE of 36-51% (apart from BPCL PE which trades at 13% premium) v/s the
truly deregulated period of FY15-18 during which there was no interference of the
government in pricing of auto fuels amidst benign crude oil prices.
We reiterate our positive stance on OMCs, with a preference for IOCL.
Flying high on NGT’s besom
Longest stretch of poor refining margins
During the past two decades, average annual global oil consumption has grown
at ~1.2mnbopd (and at 1.0mnbopd in 2019). In 2020, global oil consumption is
expected to contract ~9.5mnbopd, while 2021 consumption would grow
6.6mnbopd (as per OPEC).
Further, an expanding glut of ~1.3mnbopd in global refining capacity in 2020,
coupled with COVID-related demand destruction, resulted in a refining margin
of USD0.2/bbl in CY20 YTD, the worst ever seen in the past two decades.
Some refiners have announced the conversion of their refineries into marketing
and logistics terminals or biofuel refineries. However, refining margins still
appear subdued due to the lack of revival in the consumption of petroleum
products. Cracks spreads for petrol/diesel stand at ~USD3.0/bbl / USD5.5/bbl in
CY20 v/s ~USD10.7/bbl / USD12.0/bbl over the past five years (excl. 2020).
Since the deregulation of petrol (2010) and diesel (2014), OMCs have used gross
marketing margins of auto fuels to offset poor refining margins or inventory
losses. We estimate that a reduction of USD1/bbl in refining margins could be
compensated through increase in gross marketing margin of auto fuels by
INR0.7/0.5/0.3/lit for IOCL/BPCL/HPCL respectively.
There are signs of revival in consumption of petroleum products in India. Petrol
witnessed consumption growth of +3.3% in Sep’20 (up v/s -7.5% in Aug’20);
while diesel still recorded a decline of 6.0% YoY, although the decline was much
lesser than 20.7% in Aug’20. With increased economic activity, diesel
consumption is also expected to revive soon.
We continue to prefer IOCL. Despite annual capex of ~INR260b (the highest
among the OMCs), IOCL is expected to report ~10% cumulative FCF yield in
FY21/FY22E. Additionally, dividend yield appears attractive at 6–9%. IOCL trades
at 4.4x consol. FY22E EPS of INR17.2 and 0.6x FY22E PBV. IOCL has traded at a
1
Marketing margins to the rescue
Valuation and view
Swarnendu Bhushan- Research Analyst
(Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com)
Sarfraz Bhimani - Research Analyst
(Sarfraz.Bhimani@MotilalOswal.com)
12 October 2020
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Oil & Gas
huge discount in the past decade due to its capex cycle and CPSE-led liquidity.
The company is now at the end of its capex cycle, and we therefore believe RoE
should expand to ~15.3% in FY22E from ~9.1% in FY20. We expect the discount
gap between IOCL and its peers to shrink. We value it at 1.2x Sep’22E PBV (at
par with discount to FY15–18 average when markets did not see any
interference from the government) to arrive at target price of INR145.
Reiterate
IOCL as our top pick among the OMCs.
BPCL trades at 9.9x FY22E EPS of INR34.3 and 1.5x FY22E PBV. We value BPCL at
1.8x (15% discount to FY15–18 post the reform period) Sep’22E PBV to arrive at
TP of INR431/share. We maintain Neutral on the stock, with the slim possibility
of divestment in the current circumstances.
While HPCL’s leverage to marketing remains the highest, it is the least preferred
in our pecking list due to its high ongoing capex (INR115b for FY21), which
would raise its net debt. Additionally, the Vizag expansion, involving a slurry
hydrocracker, is expected to face challenges related to execution in FY22E,
which could hamper its performance/profitability. The stock trades at 4.6x
FY22E EPS of INR37.6 and 0.8x FY22E BV. The company has made a strong
dividend payout of 80% in FY20, with dividend yield at 5.7%. However, on
account of higher capex, FCF generation for the company is forecast to remain
negative. We value it at 1.3x Sep’22 PBV (20% discount to FY15–18 post the
reform period), factoring in heavy capex and project execution risk – to arrive at
TP of INR305.
Exhibit 1: Peer comparison – valuation snapshot
Company
BPCL
HPCL
IOCL
TP
(%)
(INR) Upside
431
305
145
EPS (INR)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY20 FY21E FY22E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY20 FY21E FY22E
27 25.3 30.2 34.3 13.4 11.3
9.9
1.8
1.7
1.5 12.4
9.2
8.4
78 23.9 38.2 37.6
7.2
4.5
4.6
0.8
0.8
0.8 9.1
5.0
6.1
92 10.3 11.1 17.3
7.4
6.8
4.4
0.7
0.7
0.6 9.4
5.9
4.5
Div.
Yield
FY20 FY21E FY22E FY20
13.2 15.5 16.0
4.9
11.9 18.2 16.9
5.7
9.1 10.5 15.3
5.6
Source: MOFSL
ROE (%)
Exhibit 2: Refinery closure already announced in 2020 is ~0.6mnbopd
Sl No Location
1
2
3
4
5
6
Geelong, Australia
San Francisco, California
Santa Maria, California
Dickson refinery, North Dakota
Martinez refinery, California
Tabangao refinery, Philippines
Company
Viva
Phillips66
Phillips66
Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum
Shell Pilipinas
Capacity
(bopd)
1,28,000
1,20,000
44,500
19,000
1,61,000
1,10,000
Announcement
date
Sep-20
Aug-20
Aug-20
Aug-20
Aug-20
Aug-20
Remarks
Final decision in July-Sep'20 quarter
Converting into biofuel plant
to be permanently shut in 2023
Converting into renewables
Converting into renewables
Converting into terminal
Source: Industry, MOFSL
Exhibit 3: Marketing margins trend above the long-term average of INR3.6/lit…
20
15
10
5
0
Diesel (INR/lit)
Petrol (INR/lit)
Average
Source: PPAC, MOFSL
12 October 2020
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 4: SG GRM continues to remain below LT average…
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
SG GRM (USD/bbl)
Average
Exhibit 5: …primarily due to weak Diesel and ATF cracks
20
10
0
-10
Gasoline
ATF
Diesel
FO (RHS)
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
Cracks (USD/bbl)
Source: Reuters, MOFSL
Source: Reuters, MOFSL
Exhibit 6: Petrol consumption has seen sharp recovery…
5 year range
2020
50%
2.5 2.5
Average
2020 (mmt)
2.5
2.3 2.3 2.4
2019
Exhibit 7: …while Diesel demand delayed amid monsoon
5 year range
2020
6.9 7.2
Average
2020 (mmt)
6.3
0%
7%
5.7 5.5
-24%
5.5
5.5
2019
50%
2.2
0%
3%
-50%
-60%
-100%
11%
-16%
1.0
1.8
-14%-10% -8%
-35%
3%
-2%
-50%
-6%
4.8
-15%
-19%-21%
-29%
MS YoY Growth
-100%
3.3
-56%
HSD YoY Growth
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: PPAC, MOFSL
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: PPAC, MOFSL
Exhibit 8: Crude oil demand would contract ~9.5% to 90.25mnbopd in 2020 (as per OPEC) v/s moderately higher than
demand of 88mnbopd over 2000–19
World Consumption (mnbopd)
140
120
100
80
Crude oil prices (USD/bbl)
YoY change (%) (LHS)
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
90.3
2.0%
0.0%
60
40
20
-9.5%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
0
-10.0%
Source: BP, OPEC, MOFSL
12 October 2020
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Oil & Gas
NOTES
12 October 2020
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Oil & Gas
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY
>=15%
SELL
< - 10%
NEUTRAL
< - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW
Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within
following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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5
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Oil & Gas
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12 October 2020
6