Sector Update | 15 December 2020

Consumer Durables

Copper prices up 25% YoY in

3QFY21 till date

Commodity price inflation warrants price hikes

The recent price increases in various commodities have emerged as a key input price risk

to the sector. While we are witnessing price actions across categories to offset such risks,

the impact may vary across categories/companies as summarized below:



Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg; *till date

Steel prices up 25% in 3QFY21

till date





Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg; *till date

Ranking various categories with

the ability to undertake price

hikes

Category

Relative

ability to

take

prices hikes

Easy

Impact

on

companies

Cables

Electricals

(Fans/

Lighting)

Moderate

White Goods Difficult

Positive for

HAVL, KEII,

POLYCAB,

FNXC

Neutral



impact for

HAVL and

CROMPTON

Negative for

VOLT, BLSTR,

and HAVL

Source: MOFSL

*KEII, POLYCAB, FNXC (Not rated)

All eyes on commodity price inflation:

Various commodities are witnessing a

15-25% YoY surge in prices, thereby raising concerns on input costs. For

instance, copper is up 25%, steel (over 25%), and aluminum (over 14%). Even

plastic prices are seeing a strong upsurge. Contrary to normal wisdom,

commodity price inflation is not necessarily a negative catalyst as its impact

varies across segments, and thereby various companies, depending on their

product portfolio as well as their ability to undertake price increases.

Cables segment can actually be a beneficiary:

Cables and Wires segment tends

to benefit from rising copper prices. Note that a cable is not a discretionary

product. We are entering into a peak construction phase in India: November to

May/June till the monsoon. Cables demand is price inelastic and the input cost

inflation gets passed on to the consumer within a month. Analysis of HAVL’s

Cables segment as well as KEII (unrated) suggests a surge in the profits of the

Cables segment in a rising copper price scenario. Additionally, companies can

experience inventory gains as well.

Consumer Electricals like Fans also tend to defend margins:

Electrical Goods

like Fans and Lighting are also able to pass on input cost pressures. These

categories are small ticket size items and higher replacement demand products.

At times, there may be a delay in price hikes by a month or so, but overall they

tend to tide over the commodity price inflation risks. In current scenario,

companies have already started undertaking price hikes – thanks to the supply-

side disruption impacting normalization of the unorganized sector. Thus, we

don’t see much risk to Consumer Electrical products unless commodity price

escalates materially. However, certain supply-side disruptions, especially in the

import of key components (for instance: LED chip for bulbs), may hinder the

capture of entire industry demand. The leading brands should be better off

compared to the unorganized sector – quite similar to the trend in 2QFY21.

White Goods may see margin headwinds in FY22:

The risks to margins are

relatively higher in White Goods on a relative basis. The White Goods space is

quite competitive. Even prior to COVID-19, brands resisted price increases

despite import duty hikes as well as a rupee depreciation to the dollar. This

rightly reflected in a decline in margins from peak levels for various companies

in the past. Also, White Goods have an element of discretion, which allows for

the postponement of purchases, although not as discretionary as say high ticket

size item like a 4W. Thus, we do see risks to FY22E margins for White Goods

players, especially ACs (risks to VOLT and BLSTR margins). However, a stronger

summer season can very well offset these risks.

Nilesh Bhaiya – Research Analyst

(Nilesh.Bhaiya@MotilalOswal.com)

Pratik Singh – Research Analyst

(Pratik.Singh@MotilalOswal.com)

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Motilal Oswal research is available on

www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,

Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Consumer Durables | Update



CROMPTON is our top pick, downgrade BLSTR to Sell: a) CROMPTON (New TP:

INR390

(Prior: INR360),

Buy)

is our top pick in the sector as it is resilient to input

cost pressures as well as the ongoing revival/pent-up demand in Real Estate can

aid revenue growth. Valuations are also comfortable at 30x FY23E P/E.

b) HAVL

(TP: INR850

(Prior: INR765),

Neutral)

– Given the diversified nature of its

portfolio and various degrees of impact from cost inflation, the cost inflation

issue tends to nullify. Also, margin levers, including lower advertising spends,

travelling costs, etc., provide scope to offset margin pressure and should aid

strong earnings growth in the near term. We remain Neutral on expensive

valuations.

c) VOLT (TP: INR815

(Prior: INR775),

Neutral) –

While VOLT may see

margin expansion for a quarter or two owing to low-cost inventory (VOLT is

carrying the highest AC inventory across listed entities of ~INR10b as of Sep’20

end and that too at low cost), we do see margin risks in FY22E. Valuations

provide no margin of safety unless the summer season surprises on the positive

side. We recently downgraded VOLT (link) and maintain our Neutral view.

d)

BLSTR (TP: INR680

(Prior: INR570),

downgrade to Sell) – We downgrade BLSTR

to Sell.

Adjusted for the projects business, the stock is now more expensive than

VOLT. Also, BLSTR remains a single product company, while VOLT is expanding

into the wider White Goods space of Refrigerators and Washing Machines.

Restructuring of VOLT’s Projects business may be a precursor to a demerger and

can help sustain higher multiples. Thus, on a relative basis, VOLT scores over

BLSTR as an investment thesis. Note that all our TPs are based on Mar’23E EPS

estimates.

15 December 2020

2

Consumer Durables | Update

Exhibit 1:

Copper prices up 25% YoY in 3QFY21 till date

'000

INR/MT

570

490

Copper prices

YoY

40%

20%

Exhibit 2:

In line with the 36% rise in copper prices between

2QFY17 and 2QFY19, Cables revenue for HAVL, KEI surge

2Q17

2Q19

137

100

100

157

136

100

410

330

250

0%

-20%

-40%

Copper

prices

Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg; *till date

Havells

cables rev

KEI

cables rev

Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg;

*Indexing at the level of 100 for comparison purpose

Exhibit 3:

Aluminum prices back to 1HFY19 levels; up 14% in

3QFY21 till date

'000

INR/MT

160

140

120

100

80

Aluminium (INR/MT)

YoY

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

Exhibit 4:

Steel prices up 25% in 3QFY21 till date

'000

INR/MT

60

50

40

30

20

Steel (INR/MT)

YoY

80%

40%

0%

-40%

-80%

Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg; *till date

Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg; *till date

Exhibit 5:

Ranking various categories with the ability to undertake price hikes

Category

Cables

Relative ability

to take prices

Remarks

hikes

Easy



Copper is the key commodity and price inflation gets

passed on the consumer (B2B/B2C) within a month.

Moderate



Impact on companies



Positive for HAVL (Cables segment),

KEII (unrated), POLYCAB (unrated),

FNXC (unrated)

Neutral impact for HAVL and

CROMPTON

Negative for VOLT, BLSTR, and HAVL

(Lloyd business)

Electricals

(Fans/Lighting)

White Goods

Difficult



Electrical items are low ticket sizes as well as have higher



replacement demand. The ability to undertake price hikes

is moderate.

The segment has a strong MNCs presence. Players give



priority to market share over margins, especially in ACs.

White Goods have an element of discretion compared to

the Consumer Electrical category.

Source: MOFSL

15 December 2020

3

Consumer Durables | Update

Exhibit 6:

Consumer Durables – Peer valuation

Company

Blue Star

Crompton

Havells

Voltas

Ticker

BLSTR IN

CROMPTON IN

HAVL IN

VOLT IN

M-cap

(INR b)

75

213

541

274

CMP

(INR)

776

340

865

830

TP

(INR)

680

390

850

815

Upside

(%)

-13%

15%

-2%

-1%

Rating

Sell

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

FY21E

101.3

43.9

62.0

61.3

P/E (x)

FY22E

41.9

35.3

53.2

44.3

FY23E

30.8

30.3

45.7

39.5

RoE (%)

FY21E FY22E FY23E

9.1

27.8

17.8

9.7

20.2

28.8

18.3

12.3

24.7

28.0

18.7

12.6

Source: MOFSL, Company, Bloomberg

Exhibit 7:

Peer valuation comparison adjusted for the Projects business of BLSTR and VOLT – CROMPTON is the cheapest

stock while BLSTR is most expensive, based on FY22E/FY23E earnings

Current P/E (x)

BLSTR

CROMPTON

HAVL

VOLT

Rating

Sell

Buy

Neutral

Neutral

FY20

84.3

48.8

73.8

57.0

FY21E

186.5

43.9

62.0

64.5

FY22E

63.4

35.3

53.2

52.1

FY23E

Target P/E

47.4

40.0

30.3

35.0

45.7

45.0

45.8

45.0

Source: MOFSL, Company, Bloomberg

FY23E

Exhibit 8:

HAVL - Earnings change summary

INR m

Revenue

EBITDA

EBITDA margin

Adjusted PAT

FY21E

92,500

12,639

13.7%

8,212

Old

FY22E

1,11,000

14,402

13.0%

9,829

FY23E

1,25,710

16,436

13.1%

11,448

FY21E

95,500

13,329

14.0%

8,729

New

FY22E

1,13,000

14,842

13.1%

10,168

FY23E

1,27,870

16,912

13.2%

11,834

FY21E

3%

5%

0.3%

6%

Change

FY22E

FY23E

2%

2%

3%

3%

0.2%

0.2%

3%

3%

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 9:

CROMPTON - Earnings change summary

INR m

Revenue

EBITDA

EBITDA margin

Adjusted PAT

FY21E

43,200

6,395

14.8%

4,771

Old

FY22E

52,000

7,666

14.7%

5,935

FY23E

57,915

8,587

14.8%

6,911

FY21E

44,000

6,508

14.8%

4,856

New

FY22E

53,000

7,811

14.7%

6,044

FY23E

59,010

8,745

14.8%

7,030

FY21E

2%

2%

0.0%

2%

Change

FY22E

FY23E

2%

2%

2%

2%

0.0%

0.0%

2%

2%

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 10:

VOLT - Earnings change summary

INR m

Revenue

EBITDA

EBITDA margin

Adjusted PAT

FY21E

69,800

5,074

7.3%

4,321

Old

FY22E

88,800

7,592

8.5%

6,194

FY23E

95,916

8,260

8.6%

6,941

FY21E

69,800

5,283

7.6%

4,478

New

FY22E

88,800

7,592

8.5%

6,194

FY23E

95,916

8,260

8.6%

6,941

FY21E

0%

4%

0.3%

4%

Change

FY22E

FY23E

0%

0%

0%

0%

0.0%

0.0%

0%

0%

Source: MOFSL, Company

Exhibit 11:

BLSTR - Earnings upgrade largely led by the Projects business; higher operating leverage implies larger variation in

earnings

INR m

Revenue

EBITDA

EBITDA margin

Adjusted PAT

FY21E

42,500

2,116

5.0%

685

Old

FY22E

56,500

3,234

5.7%

1,596

FY23E

63,599

3,765

5.9%

2,088

FY21E

43,000

2,187

5.1%

738

New

FY22E

59,000

3,474

5.9%

1,785

FY23E

67,549

4,195

6.2%

2,424

FY21E

1%

3%

0.1%

8%

Change

FY22E

FY23E

4%

6%

7%

11%

0.2%

0.3%

12%

16%

Source: MOFSL, Company

15 December 2020

4

Consumer Durables | Update

Explanation of Investment Rating

Investment Rating

Expected return (over 12-month)

BUY

>=15%

SELL

< - 10%

NEUTRAL

< - 10 % to 15%

UNDER REVIEW

Rating may undergo a change

NOT RATED

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within

following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

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15 December 2020

5

Consumer Durables | Update

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misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages,

expenses that may be suffered by the person

accessing this information due to any errors and delays.

Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263;

Website

www.motilaloswal.com.CIN

no.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road,

Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.

Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:

INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company

Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth

Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is

a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt.

Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL.

Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no

assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance

Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.

* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National

Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.

15 December 2020

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