A Decade of
Triumphs and Trials
2010-20
Gautam Duggad
Deven Mistry
Gautam.Duggad@motilaloswal.com
Deven@motilaloswal.com
JANUARY 2021
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
2010-20: A Decade of
Triumphs and Trials
As we step into CY21, this edition of our Strategy report looks at the decade gone by from various lenses –
markets, economy, stocks, politics and several key events which unfolded and defined the 2020’s.
As the popular saying goes, “One overestimates the change that can occur in the short term and
underestimates the change that will occur in the long term.” A decade is a fairly long time in the market to
reminisce the ‘change’ from many angles.
While the stock market provided modest CAGR returns, the decade has seen many triumphs and tribulations.
After almost three decades of coalition governments, the country saw its first decisive mandate for a single
party government in 2014. This was repeated in 2019 with an even greater decisive mandate, a first in five
decades that a single party majority government was re-elected to power. This brought several big ticket and
game-changing reforms to the fore over the last six years.
Cliché as it may sound, global and domestic equity markets witnessed elevated disruption and consequent
volatility in the last decade. This ensured sharp divergences in returns, not just across sectors, but even
within the sector. The decade witnessed emergence of several Technology companies overtake companies
that have been in existence for multiple decades. Innovation, startups, disruption became the buzzwords as
incumbent legacy business models were disrupted by new age entrepreneurs. There have been several macro
crises as well along the way (taper tantrum, currency meltdown, crude spike, COVID-19). On the macro front,
if the 2000-10’s decade was known for investment, capital formation, and capex cycle, the 2010-20 decade
would be known for deleveraging and the absence of private capex.
for an earnings revival, as ever, remains intact as India emerges out of the COVID-19 crisis.
Corporate earnings – the fuel for the market’s upwards journey – were muted in the decade gone by. Hope
The last decade also saw near historical low interest rates, both in India and globally, which would have a
defining impact on consumption, growth outlook, valuation of asset classes, and multiple other aspects.
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India wins the
ICC World Cup
Narendra Modi
wins historic
elections
2014
2011
2014
ISRO made history when
India became the first
country in the world to reach
Mars in its maiden attempt
Reliance Jio’s
commercial launch
2016
Important events
during the decade
gone by
2015
The frenzy over a
Federal Reserve rate
hike had an alarming
effect on markets
2016
Demonetization and
digitalization of the
Indian economy
2010-
2020
2016
Military aggression – India
avenged the Uri attack
Oil prices touched
USD100/bbl and turned
negative both in the
decade gone by
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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June 2020
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GST: Historic rollout of the
single tax regime
2017
2018
2020
Mr Aditya Puri, MD of HDFC Bank,
retired after a very successful 25
years of leadership with the bank
US-China trade war
Important events
during the decade
gone by
2018
ILFS crisis roiled the
debt market
2020
2019
2020
A pandemic year
A year when markets saw
both Bull and Bear cycles
Pulwama attack and
Balakot air strike
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Looking back: A decade in the market
Nifty delivers eight years of positive return
Sources of exhibits in this report include Bloomberg, SEBI, NSE, Capitaline, companies, RBI, CEIC and MOFSL’s database
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Global equities: The US was the best performing market in the decade gone by
Performance of world equity indices –
in local currency (%)
– India
delivered the third highest return among key global markets
CY10-20 (%, CAGR)
US - S&P 500
Japan
India - Nifty
Brazil
Taiwan
South Korea
Russia MICEX
MSCI EM
UK
China (HSCEI)
-2
1
1
3
3
5
6
10
12
US - S&P 500
Japan
Taiwan
South Korea
India - Nifty
MSCI EM
UK
China (HSCEI)
Russia MICEX
Brazil
-6
-6
-2
0
1
4
5
8
Performance of world equity indices –
in USD (%)
– Taiwan and South Korea
overtook India in USD terms
CY10-20 (%, CAGR)
12
9
3
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India’s global rank remains stable
Global ranking on a market capitalization basis – India v/s others
Country
United States
China
Japan
Hong Kong
United Kingdom
France
Canada
CY10
1
5
2
4
3
7
6
M-cap rank
CY15
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
CY20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
M-cap
(USD t)
42.6
10.9
6.8
6.5
3.3
2.9
2.6
CY20
Change (%)
24
49
8
18
-6
8
11
CAGR (%)
5 year
10 year
13
9
6
10
-1
9
10
11
13
5
7
0
5
2
Change
in rank
0
3
-1
0
-2
1
-1
India
Germany
South Korea
Switzerland
Taiwan
Australia
Sweden
Netherlands
8
9
13
12
15
10
18
25
10
7
11
9
13
12
14
20
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
2.5
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.1
1.0
17
10
46
8
33
18
32
33
11
6
12
6
16
9
11
20
4
5
7
5
7
1
7
12
0
0
3
1
3
-3
4
10
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World m-cap crosses USD100t
Global m-cap has doubled in the decade gone by
World m-cap (USD t)
103
81
52
52
62
65
64
66
70
87
46
CY10
CY11
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
CY19
CY20
India’s share in global m-cap at its historical average
3.5
3.1
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.6
Average: 2.4%
India's Contribution to World Mcap (%)
2.4
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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Indian equities outperform other asset classes
CY10-20 returns for various asset classes (%, CAGR)
9.3
7.6
5.8
2.9
7.6
10.2
India Treasury Bill Yield
12 Month
Bank FD
10 Year G Sec %
Gold $
Gold INR
Equities (Nifty TR)
Note: Yield, bank FD and G-Sec returns are average for the decade
Nifty delivered eight years of positive return in the decade gone by; CY11 and CY15 were exceptions
18
23
-25
-37
28
24
7
-5
31
29
-4
-8
3
0
29
37
3
-5
12
10
15
12
Trend in Nifty
CAGR in INR terms: 8.6% | CAGR in USD terms:
3.4%
Annual return in INR (%) terms
Annual return in USD (%) terms
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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Midcaps outperform large-caps; small-caps lag behind the most
Midcaps outperform large-caps during the decade
250
200
150
100
50
Nifty-50 rebased
Nifty Midcap-100 rebased
Nifty Smallcap-100 rebased
235
228
173
After underperforming in the last two years, mid-caps bounced back in CY20
Nifty-50 YoY (%)
56
39
18
19
28
7
-5
-25
CY10
-31
CY11
-4
-15
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
CY19
CY20
31
6
3
7
29
12
3
-4
15
Nifty Midcap-100 YoY (%)
47
22
CY12
CY13
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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IT, Consumer performed well; Cyclicals lost the most
Sectoral performance over the decade (%, CAGR)
13
12
12
CY10-CY20 (%, CAGR)
10
10
9
9
7
6
3
2
0
-1
-4
-4
Years of negative return over the decade; Consumer delivered only one-year of negative return in the decade under review
6
6
6
5
Years of negative return over CY11-20
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
2
2
1
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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Nifty: Top winners and laggards in the decade gone by
Top and bottom 15 Nifty performers over CY11-20 (%, CAGR)
CY10-CY20 (%, CAGR)
54
WINNERS
35
35
33
28
28
25
24
24
24
23
LAGGARDS
20
19
18
17
9
7
6
6
5
4
4
1
0
0
0
-2
-3
-5
-8
-8
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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BSE 200 (ex-Nifty): Winners and laggards in the decade gone by
Top 25 gainers in the past decade
53
50
46
46
44
43
Top 25 gainers over CY11-20 (%, CAGR)
38
35
34
32
32
32
31
28
28
28
28
27
27
26
25
25
25
24
24
Bottom 25 laggards in the past decade
Bottom 25 laggards over CY10-20 (%, CAGR)
-41
-39
-35
-34
-32
-32
-32
-30
-30
-30
-29
-29
-28
-28
-28
-28
-24
-24
-23
-23
-23
-22
-21
-21
-21
*Source: Bloomberg, Capitaline, MOFSL. Excludes Nifty companies. Bottom 25 laggards based on BSE 200 constituents as of Dec’10. Top 25 winners based on BSE 200 constituents
in CY20
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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Sectoral weights in the Nifty: Fortunes for BFSI reverse
Trend in Nifty sectoral weightage (%) – Private Financials gained massively in the last decade
Weightage in Nifty (%)
Sector
Automobiles
Banks - Private
Banks - Public
Insurance
NBFC
Capital Goods
Cement
Consumer
Healthcare
Metals
Oil & Gas
Technology
Telecom
Utilities
Others
Nifty
Dec’10
7.5
14.5
4.9
0.0
6.6
8.7
1.9
6.8
3.7
8.4
14.7
14.3
2.9
4.5
0.6
100.0
Dec’15
9.9
20.7
3.3
0.0
7.0
4.2
2.8
10.1
7.3
1.3
9.1
16.3
2.2
4.1
1.7
100.0
Dec’20
5.4
24.7
1.8
1.5
10.8
2.6
2.2
11.5
3.6
2.0
12.5*
16.3
2.0
2.1
1.0
100.0
Change in weightage
10-year
-2.1
10.2
-3.1
1.5
4.2
-6.1
0.3
4.7
-0.1
-6.4
-2.2
2.0
-0.9
-2.4
0.4
5-year
-4.5
4.1
-1.5
1.5
3.8
-1.6
-0.7
1.5
-3.7
0.7
3.3
0.0
-0.2
-2.0
-0.7
*Oil and Gas comprises Reliance Industries with 10.7% weightage. Three-fourth of RIL’s value is dominated by Telecom and Retail
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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June 2020
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PSU share in Indian market at a two decade low
Indian market Cap (INR t)
33
33
31
28
26
30
28
27
24
22
PSU Contribution (%)
189
CY10-20: Indian Market Cap
increased by 2.6x (10% CAGR)
27
CY00-CY20: 28.6x
(18% CAGR)
19
18
19
16
16
14
13
17
13
CY00-10: Indian Market
Cap increased by 11.1x
(27% CAGR)
73
10
7
5
6
13
17
25
36
72
31
61
53
69
70
98
100
106
152
145
156
CY00 CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Nifty v/s Nifty Midcap 100 – Gap in m-cap is still significant
Nifty’s m-cap expanded 2.8x in the last decade, up 44% since Dec’17
Nifty (INR t)
76.0
38.4
38.7
42.7
55.5
54.5
57.1
78.9
90.0
109.3
31.3
M-cap of Nifty Midcap 100 still below the Dec’17 levels
Nifty Midcap 100 (INR t)
16.7
9.0
11.0
17.0
16.7
21.9
6% correction from the peak
20.6
15.9
16.1
8.2
6.9
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Top 25 companies in terms of m-cap | RIL remains the king, BFSI gains, PSUs lose
12 out of top 25 companies have remained common in the last 10-year cycle
Company
Reliance Industries
ONGC
TCS
Coal India
Infosys
State Bank of India
NTPC
Bharti Airtel
ITC
ICICI Bank
Larsen & Toubro
Wipro
MMTC
BHEL
NMDC
HDFC Bank
HDFC
IOCL
Tata Motors
SAIL
Adani Enterp.
Hind. Unilever
Jindal Steel
GAIL (India)
Cairn India
Top 25
India
Top 25 (%)
Number of PSUs
CY10 m-cap
(INR b)
3463
2766
2280
1986
1978
1785
1654
1361
1345
1318
1203
1203
1170
1138
1101
1090
1066
833
777
754
714
682
666
648
632
33613
73094
46
10
Company
TCS
Reliance Industries
HDFC Bank
ITC
Infosys
Coal India
ONGC
HDFC
Sun Pharma. Inds.
Hind. Unilever
State Bank of India
ICICI Bank
Maruti Suzuki
Wipro
Bharti Airtel
Kotak Mah. Bank
Tata Motors
HCL Technologies
NTPC
Larsen & Toubro
Axis Bank
IOCL
Asian Paints
Lupin
Bharti Infra.
CY15 m-cap (INR
b)
4806
3280
2734
2633
2537
2076
2070
1993
1973
1866
1742
1520
1394
1383
1359
1317
1277
1206
1203
1188
1069
1041
848
828
812
44155
100622
44
5
Company
Reliance Industries
TCS
HDFC Bank
Hind. Unilever
Infosys
HDFC
Kotak Mah. Bank
ICICI Bank
Bajaj Finance
Bharti Airtel
Asian Paints
ITC
HCL Technologies
State Bank of India
Maruti Suzuki
Wipro
Axis Bank
Larsen & Toubro
Avenue Super.
Nestle India
Adani Green
UltraTech Cem.
Sun Pharma. Inds.
Bajaj Finserv
Titan Company
CY20 m-cap
(INR b)
13,053
10,770
7,913
5,624
5,349
4,606
3,952
3,692
3,191
2,779
2,652
2,572
2,567
2,452
2,311
2,208
1,899
1,808
1,792
1,773
1,646
1,525
1,421
1,417
1,392
90,364
188,771
48
1
CAGR (%)
14
17
22
23
10
16
28
11
62
7
25
7
23
3
19
6
13
4
NA
17
NA
18
11
36
24
10
10
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Stocks with over 1% contribution to the listed universe m-cap
Seven out of 17 stocks with over 1% contribution are from the BFSI space
Company
Reliance Inds.
TCS
HDFC Bank
Hind. Unilever
Infosys
HDFC
Kotak Mah. Bank
ICICI Bank
Bajaj Fin.
Bharti Airtel
Asian Paints
ITC
HCL Technologies
State Bank of India
Maruti Suzuki
Wipro
Axis Bank
Total
Sector
Oil and Gas
Technology
Banks - Private
Consumer
Technology
NBFCs
Banks - Private
Banks - Private
NBFCs
Telecom
Consumer
Consumer
Technology
Banks - Public
Automobiles
Technology
Banks - Private
CY10
4.7
3.1
1.5
0.9
2.7
1.5
0.5
1.8
0.0
1.9
0.4
1.8
0.4
2.4
0.6
1.6
0.8
26.7
CY11
4.3
4.3
1.9
1.7
3.0
1.8
0.6
1.5
0.0
2.4
0.5
2.9
0.5
1.9
0.5
1.8
0.6
30.2
CY12
3.9
3.6
2.3
1.6
1.9
1.8
0.7
1.9
0.1
1.7
0.6
3.3
0.6
2.3
0.6
1.4
0.8
29.4
CY13
4.1
6.0
2.3
1.8
2.8
1.8
0.8
1.8
0.1
1.9
0.7
3.6
1.3
1.7
0.8
2.0
0.9
34.2
% of listed m-cap
CY14
CY15
CY16
2.9
3.3
3.3
5.1
4.8
4.4
2.3
2.7
2.9
1.7
1.9
1.7
2.3
2.5
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.0
1.3
1.2
2.1
1.5
1.4
0.2
0.3
0.4
1.4
1.4
1.2
0.7
0.8
0.8
3.0
2.6
2.8
1.1
1.2
1.1
2.4
1.7
1.8
1.0
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.0
31.7
31.9
30.7
CY17
3.8
3.4
3.2
2.0
1.5
1.8
1.3
1.3
0.7
1.4
0.7
2.1
0.8
1.8
1.9
0.9
1.0
29.6
CY18
4.9
4.9
4.0
2.7
2.0
2.3
1.7
1.6
1.1
0.9
0.9
2.4
0.9
1.8
1.6
1.0
1.1
35.7
CY19
6.2
5.2
4.5
2.7
2.0
2.7
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.5
1.1
1.9
1.0
1.9
1.4
0.9
1.4
40.2
CY20
6.9
5.7
4.2
3.0
2.8
2.4
2.1
2.0
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.0
41.1
Widening divergence: Contribution of Top 15 to the Top 100 m-cap at its peak
Contribution of Top 15 to the Top 100 m-cap (%)
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Billion dollar club:
Contribution to Indian m-cap higher than CY17 peak
Indian
m-cap
(USD t)
1.6
1.0
1.3
1.1
1.6
1.5
% to Indian Mcap
1.6
2.4
2.1
2.2
2.6
Number of billion dollar companies
329
282
276
91
88
88
300
212
150
86
83
CY10
CY11
214
187
164
86
224
228
91
85
85
85
85
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
CY19
CY20
Trend in companies with over USD10b and USD25b m-cap (number of companies)
>10 USDb
50
43
34
20
26
19
33
29
29
6
7
7
41
>25 USDb
49
14
16
12
11
13
10
15
17
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Institutional flows: FIIs took the lead
FII investments in the Indian equity market stand at USD209b with only four years of outflows
Cumulative flows: USD209b
CY93-00: USD11.9b
CY01-10: USD90.2b
CY11-20: USD107.1b
DIIs have invested USD51b till date, with MFs being the major contributor post CY15. The same tapered off in CY20
Cumulative flows: USD51.3b
CY01-10: USD27.8b
CY11-20: USD23.7b
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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Domestic MFs | Equity AUMs making new highs
AUM rises by 4.6x as against Nifty’s rise of 2.3x in the last 10 years
Equity Incl. ELSS & Index AUM (INR t)
AUM CAGR 16%
Nifty CAGR 9%
8,283
6,135
4,624
5,905
6,304
7,946
8,186
Nifty Index
10,531
7.7
10,863
7.9
12,168
8.1
13,982
9.5
4.1
2.1
CY10
1.9
CY12
3.2
1.8
CY13
CY14
CY15
4.7
1.6
CY11
CY16
CY17
CY18
CY19
CY20
Total net inflows for the MF industry
Total Net Inflows (INR t)
75
17
39
-25
0.2
-0.9
CY10
CY11
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
CY19
CY20
0.6
Equity % to total inflows
62
19
-32
0.3
0.7
1.8
2.9
2.4
1.5
2.0
1.8
83
38
4
51
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Institutional ownership increases by 700bp over the last decade
Institutional ownership (FII and DII) in Indian equities has increased in the last decade, while promoter and public ownership has declined
Promoter (%)
16.7
10.1
17.5
16.6
10.6
17.2
16.8
10.5
19.1
16.1
10.4
21.5
15.8
10.4
22.3
FIIs (%)
DII (%)
16.2
11.5
21.0
Public / Others (%)
17.0
11.9
20.3
16.5
12.5
19.9
16.1
13.5
20.3
14.4
14.2
21.5
14.6
14.2
20.4
55.7
55.6
53.5
52.0
51.5
51.3
50.9
51.1
50.1
49.9
50.7
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Sep-20
FII Proportion of Free Float (%)
DII Proportion of Free Float (%)
46.0
44.9
43.2
41.3
23.6
21.6
21.5
24.1
25.6
27.1
28.4
28.9
39.6
22.8
23.9
41.2
42.9
40.6
40.6
41.4
38.7
22.6
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Fund raising | Second best year after a blockbuster CY17
Fund mobilization in public markets (INR b)
Year
CY10
CY11
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
CY19
CY20
IPOs
373
61
70
16
15
139
270
760
335
178
460
Equity raising through QIPs (INR b)
QIPs
No of companies
70
5
FPOs
316
81
221
221
47
355
125
207
131
263
215
IDRs
24.9
OFS
QIPs
237
35
52
84
321
189
48
598
165
352
805
Equity raising through OFS (INR b)
OFS
35
166
68
760
0
373
70
81
0
5
139
61 70
16 15
0
270
56
355
No of companies
Total equity
951
176
343
391
388
683
443
1565
631
793
1480
Equity raising through IPOs and FPOs (INR b)
IPOs
FPOs
No of companies
0
169
94
316
71
40
25 37 49
63
805
42
34 30
13
598 165
26
25
17
352
11
48
221 221
125
14
9
9
8
207
13
46
0
460
237
9
263
23
215
19
0
335
0
178
11
321
13
131
35 52 84
189
47
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Market volumes grew by 33% CAGR over the last decade
Market volumes have seen a 33% CAGR increase over CY11-20
84
16
10
90
90
92
91
92
94
95
96
97
97
Total Daily Avg Volumes (INR B)
Cash Volumes % to Total Volumes
CAGR of 33%
10
8
9
8
6
5
4
3
3
CY10
CY11
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
CY19
CY20
F&O volumes as percentage of total volumes
Ratio of FII to DII volumes has fallen
FII:DII volumes
2.5
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.2
2.0
2.3
Average of 2.1x
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.6
CY10
CY11
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
CY19
CY20
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
24
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Retail participation touching new highs in recent times
Non Institution % to Cash Volume
80
71
65
65
53
Average: 46%
50
35
28
20
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
25
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Valuation trajectory; Nifty trades in a 13-25x P/E band
Market at record high, valuations above historical averages
Nifty
16,000
13,000
10,000
7,000
4,000
13.3
Nifty P/E (x)
25.1
22.3
13,982
28.0
CY10-20: Nifty CAGR: 8.6% | Average P/E: 18.8x
24.0
21.4
20.0
16.0
12.0
12-month forward Nifty P/B (x)
3.5
12-month forward Nifty RoE (%)
17.5
3.0
10-year average:
2.6x
3.0
16.0
14.5
13.0
10-year average:
14.0%
2.5
14.1
2.0
11.5
10.0
1.5
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
M-cap-to-GDP ratio – 2020 saw a decade high and low
M-cap-to-GDP ratio (%)
Estimated 5% decline in FY21
nominal GDP growth rate
Lowest since the
GFC
88
71
64
52
45
42
55
GFC: Peak of 149% in Dec’07
103
95
82
83
81
66
69
56
98
79
83
79
Average of 65% for the period
26
26
23
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Earnings at a glance
Earnings and returns go hand in hand
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
28
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Earnings and returns go hand in hand
Nifty EPS (INR) - Index earnings and index prices are two sides of the same coin
FY01-FY21 CAGR:
Nifty Index: 13%
Nifty EPS: 10%
FY11-21E CAGR:
Nifty Index: 9.1%
Nifty EPS: 5.1%
483
451
406
415
426
397
467
516
FY01-11 CAGR:
Nifty Index: 17.7%
Nifty EPS: 15.8%
236
169
131
184
315
281
251
247
348
369
73
78
92
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
29
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Corporate profitability at a two decade low
Corporate Profit to GDP (%)
7.8
7.3
6.3
5.4
4.7
5.5
4.8
4.3
4.3
3.7
3.0
1.9
2.1
2.2
1.8
3.2
Average of 4.4%
3.6
2.9
3.1
6.5
6.3
Note: Corporate profit compiled from Capitaline for available listed + unlisted companies; FY20 earnings from few unlisted companies are yet to be added,
even though it may not change aggregates meaningfully
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
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June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Earnings growth for the MOFSL universe has been modest over the decade
Sales (INR b)
PAT (INR b)
EBIDTA margin excluding OMC and Finance companies (%)
20.9
19.2
19.2
19.2
20.3
Average: 19%
18.3 18.3 18.3
19.1
18.2
18.2
0.22
0.39
Net debt-to-equity (x)
0.40
0.42
0.37
0.36
0.35
0.46
0.36
Average: 0.36x
0.34
0.27
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
31
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Contribution of select defensives has increased
Private Financials,Consumer and Tech (PAT,INRb)
% Share to MOFSL Univ.
1,870
1,293
36
33
29
23
FY11
25
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21E
1,415
38
1,519
36
1,585
38
35
2,319
2,080
45
44
608
766
941
1,143
Defensive
Domestic Cyclicals
Global Cyclicals
44
43
38
37
32
32
35
39
38
27
29
31
32
25
35
31
34
31
32
31
33
41
39
26
28
31
34
37
33
30
28
32
32
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
32
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Stark divergence in intra-sector performance (FY11-21E)
Eicher
Hero Moto
34.4
22.8
HDFC Bank
SBI
21.8
Bajaj Finance
Shriram Transport
61.9
34.3
3.6
PAT CAGR (%)
Shree Cement
28.7
28.1
17.0
9.7
12.0
6.4
2.3
PAT CAGR (%)
JSW Steel
14.2
Mcap CAGR (%)
Tata Steel
16.5
13.8
6.8
1.2
6.5
-9.1
Mcap CAGR (%)
PAT CAGR (%)
Mcap CAGR (%)
PAT CAGR (%)
Mcap CAGR (%)
PAT CAGR (%)
TCS
4.2
Mcap CAGR (%)
Wipro
16.9
PAT CAGR (%)
Power Grid Corp.
16.3
Mcap CAGR (%)
Coal India
7.7
12.1
Mcap CAGR (%)
ACC
7.9
PAT CAGR (%)
Divis Lab
22.0
9.8
3.6
PAT CAGR (%)
HUL
7.0
3.0
Mcap CAGR (%)
Sun Pharma
27.5
Mcap CAGR (%)
ITC
24.7
14.3
2.2
-1.1
PAT CAGR (%)
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
33
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Macro overview
The 21st Century Thus Far: Two decades, Two Different Stories
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
34
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Summary of India’s economy in the first two decades of the 21st century
2000s decade
2010s decade
34.5
31.2
23.1
20.1
14.5
11.2
6.9
7.0
6.3
7.2
8.8
5.2
15.1
12.9
7.7
6.7
2.1
0.5
Real GDP^
Real
Real
HH investments^
consumption^@ investments^$
Total debt^
HH savings*
Total
investments*&
Fiscal deficit*
CAD*
^ Average CAGR during the decades
@ Personal + Government
$ Excluding ‘errors & omissions (E&O)’
Total debt is our estimate compiled from all institutional sources for the non-financial sector
MoFSL
* Average % of GDP during the decades
& Including ‘E&O’; FY20 is our estimate
Source: CSO, RBI, CEIC,
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
35
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Per capita GDP has scaled up by 4.7x in the last two decades
Per Capita GDP (USD)
FY10-20: Rise by 1.9x; 6.4% CAGR
FY00-FY20 : Rise by
4.7x; 8% CAGR
FY00-10: Rise by 2.5x; 9.6% CAGR
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
36
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Share of consumption* and investments in GDP over the past two decades (%)
(% of GDP)
Consumption*
Investments
24.3
24.2
24.8
26.8
32.8
34.7
35.7
38.1
34.3
36.5
36.5
39.0
38.7
33.8
33.5
32.1
32.0
34.2
32.2
77.2
77.4
75.8
73.8
70.1
69.2
68.0
67.2
68.6
69.1
67.5
67.3
67.1
67.9
68.6
69.4
69.6
69.8
70.4
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
* Personal + Government
Data for Gross capital formation is not yet available for FY20
Note: Numbers add up to more than 100% because it doesn't include net exports and discrepancies .
Source: CSO, CEIC, MoFSL
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
37
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
India posted its first current account surplus in 13 years in 4QFY20
Current account balance (% of GDP)
4.0
1.0
-2.0
-5.0
-8.0
Exports (USD B)
Imports (USD B)
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21*
(*Apr-Dec'20 )
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
38
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Tax-to-GDP ratio at decade low
Net Tax-GDP (%)
8.8
8.2
6.9
7.3
7.9
7.0
7.3
7.2
7.5
7.3
7.2
6.3
5.7
6.3
6.6
6.9
7.2
7.3
6.9
6.7
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
5.5
6.0
5.7
4.3
3.9
4.0
6.0
6.5
4.8
3.3
2.5
5.9
4.9
4.5
4.1
4.6
3.9
3.5
3.4
3.4
5.2
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
39
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Strong capital inflows led to record high foreign exchange reserves
Forex Reserves (USD)
Cumulative flows
of USD168b
581
Cumulative flows of USD108b
413
360
370
425
305
294
292
304
478
342
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
(*As on 25th
Dec'20)
FY21*
Surge in India’s forex reserves in CY20 at record high v/s other EMs
Change in forex reserves in CY20*
19.0
13.0
1.6
2
3.4
17
4
6.7
28
5.1
28
29
7.4
35
87
2.7
USD b (ls)
% (rs)
25.7
117
(2.4)
(1)
(0.2)
(1)
54
356
105
134
105
436
583
253
513
3,310
575
*Up to Nov’ 20
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), RBI, CEIC, MoFSL
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
40
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Interest rates at decade low, a major boost for the coming decade
10.9
8.8
6.9
5.4
7.1
6.2
7.8
7.9
7.6
7.3
7.9
10 year G-Sec
8.4
8.2
8.4
8.3
7.8
7.0
6.9
7.7
6.7
6.0
(*Average up to 31st Dec'20)
(%, yearly average)
Repo rate
8.5
6.8
7.5
8.0
7.5
6.8
6.3
6.0
6.3
4.4
4.0
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21*
(*As on 31st Dec'20)
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
41
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
USD/INR: First decade was stable, second decade saw significant depreciation
78.0
USD/INR
73.1
68.0
58.0
Currency depreciated
by 63% during the
decade
Currency was quite
stable in last decade
48.0
46.7
44.7
38.0
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
42
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Oil (WTI): Journey from over 100 to negative territory
150
Geopolitical tensions in the
Strait of Hormuz raise prices to
above USD100/bbl
100
OPEC led supply cuts pushes prices to
above USD70/bbl in 2018
50
US shale oil production leads to a fall in WTI from above
USD 100/bbl to below USD 30/bbl
0
COVID-led demand destruction leads
to oil prices falling to a negative
USD37/bbl
-50
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
43
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Credit growth ends CY11-20 at an almost five decade low
Credit growth YoY (%)
40%
37%
30%
Credit growth has fallen to 5.7% YoY – lows that
were last seen post demonetization
20%
10%
Credit growth fell to 13% in Sep'09
13%
from 37% YoY in Mar’06
6.1%
0%
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
44
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
45
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
KEY RESEARCH REPORTS
OF 2020
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
KEY RESEARCH REPORTS OF 2020
A Decade of Triumphs and Trials | January 2021
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days,the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take appropriate
measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of
providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a subsidiary company of Passionate Investment Management Pvt. Ltd..
(PIMPL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com.
MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange
Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National
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MOFSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relative may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOFSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more
securities in the past 12 months. MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell
the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial
instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related
information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the
views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report. Research Analyst may have served as director/officer, etc. in the
subject company in the past 12 months. MOFSL and/or its associates may have received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.
In the past 12 months, MOFSL or any of its associates may have:
a) managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,
b) received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,
c) received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.
d) Subject Company may have been a client of MOFSL or its associates in the past 12 months.
MOFSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. To enhance transparency, MOFSL has incorporated a
Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOFSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment
banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOFSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report.
Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL
which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals,
error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any way, transmitted
to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOFSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are
considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information
has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without
notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though
disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
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The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly
or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Companies where there is interest
Analyst ownership of the stock
No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.
Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical Research.
Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOFSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view
with regards to subject company for which Research Team have expressed their views.
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For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission
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defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an
offer or solicitation of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong
Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States. In
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intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major
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institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the
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agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this
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The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and
therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
June 2020
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
For Singapore
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets services license and an exempt financial
adviser in Singapore,
as per the approved agreement under Paragraph 9 of Third Schedule of Securities and Futures Act (CAP 289) and Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110) provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary
Authority of Singapore. Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who
qualify as “Institutional Investors”, of which some of whom may consist of "accredited" institutional investors as defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“the SFA”). Accordingly,
if a Singapore person is not or ceases to be such an institutional investor, such Singapore Person must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and inform MOCMSPL.
Disclaimer: The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any
other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or
solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is
suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own
investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such
investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own
advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another
derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or
fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as
endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required
from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the
securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of
these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is
already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This
document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This
report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or
use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all
jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees,
agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the
information. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOFSL
or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered
by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263; Website
www.motilaloswal.com.
CIN No.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment
Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579 ;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered
through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal
Oswal Financial Services Limited is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd.
which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL. Research & Advisory services is backed by proper
research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market
risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
June 2020