Sector Update | 27 May 2021
AGRICULTURE
Rising commodity prices to maintain demand
momentum for Agri inputs
We hosted Mr. Sameer Goel – Managing Director, Coromandel International & Mr. Balram
Singh Yadav – Managing Director, Godrej Agrovet, to get their individual perspectives on
the inflation in agricultural commodities (as per the World Bank, prices in Apr’21 increased
83% YoY for Maize, 64% YoY for Soybean, 76% YoY for Palm Oil, 58% YoY for Sugar, and
43% YoY for Cotton). Furthermore, we wanted to understand the implication of this
inflation – driven by supply-side disruptions, stockpiling, and speculation – on various
stakeholders (farmers, corporates, and the economy) as well as the current situation on
the ground. Here are the key takeaways:
CMr Sameer Goel – MD,
Coromandel International
During his career, spanning
more than 28 years, he has
held various roles in India, the
UK, the UAE, and West and
South Africa; he was Vice
President for Africa when he
moved from GSK. He has
extensive experience in
managing businesses, driving
sales across multiple
geographies, and building B2C
businesses.
Key takeaways from our meeting with Mr Sameer Goel – Managing
Director, Coromandel International
Agricultural industry
Increase in Food Price Index:
As of Apr’21, the Food Price Index posted a rise for
the 11
th
consecutive month and was at the highest levels since May’14. Growth
was largely driven by vegetable oils and cereals, lower output and decline in
inventory levels, and stockpiling in China.
The monsoon forecast for CY21 remains normal, and reservoirs in South and
West India are at good levels; these factors bode well for acreages.
RM prices:
Since Nov’20, prices have surged across DAP, phos acid, ammonia,
and sulfur. This is largely attributable to a sharp increase in commodity prices,
leading to a rise in RM prices. Moreover, increased demand, coupled with lower
availability from Brazil, China, the US, and India, contributed to the price rise.
NBS rates:
The government has increased the subsidy on phosphorous by 204%
to INR45.3/kg, keeping the subsidy rate constant for NKS. This led to a fall in
DAP prices (for farmer) to INR1,200/bag (from INR1,900/bag).
Specific to Coromandel International (CRIN)
Backward integration:
CRIN has increased focus on backward integration and
fully integrated its Vizag and Ennore plants. The company is increasing capacity
in Vizag and also installing an evaporator at the plant, which would help
transport concentrated acid to the Ennore plant.
Capital allocation:
Going forward, the major focus and investment would be
toward crop protection chemical plants (new MPP installations). It would also
focus on backward integration to reduce the number of imports.
The company is also looking at inorganic expansion opportunities – as CRIN has
fully repaid its long-term and short-term debts.
Research Analyst: Sumant Kumar
(Sumant.Kumar@MotilalOswal.com)
Darshit Shah
(Darshit.Shah@motilaloswal.com) /
Yusuf Inamdar
(yusuf.inamdar@motilaloswal.com)
21 November 2017
1
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