29 June 2022
Company Update | Sector: Financials
Bandhan Bank
BSE SENSEX
53,177
S&P CNX
15,850
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CMP: INR276 TP: INR315 (+14%)
Neutral
Assam floods to elongate recovery trajectory
Stress dissolution to moderate; provisioning to remain elevated
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
FY22
NII
87.1
OP
80.1
NP
1.3
NIM (%)
7.3
EPS (INR)
0.8
EPS Gr. (%)
-94.3
BV/Sh. (INR)
107.9
ABV/Sh. (INR)
101.1
Ratios
RoE (%)
0.7
RoA (%)
0.1
Valuations
P/E(X)
NM
P/BV (X)
2.6
P/ABV (X)
2.7
BANDHAN IN
1,611
445.3 / 5.7
354 / 230
-12/17/-21
2544
60.0
Bandhan stock has corrected sharply in recent days owing to concerns over its Assam
portfolio as 85-90% of total districts in the state have been affected by severe floods.
As Assam constitutes ~9% of MFI loans and ~8% of total banking units for BANDHAN,
the ongoing flood situation will affect collection trends over the near term.
Its SMA book for Assam and West Bengal stands at 8.5%/8.2% (v/s 46.4%/41.3% in
1QFY22), with restructured assets of INR54.2b (5.8% of loans). We expect the stress
dissolution rate to now moderate.
Our PAT and ABV projections have witnessed sharp swings of -24% to 22% over the
past five quarters. We remain watchful of the near-term impact, though the stock
trades at reasonable valuations of 1.7x FY24E P/BV against its average FY23-24E RoE
of 24%. We maintain our Neutral rating with a revised TP of INR315 per share (2x
FY24E P/BV).
Assam witnesses severe floods; forms 9%/8% of MFI loans/banking units
Assam has witnessed severe floods in recent weeks, which has affected 85-90%
of total districts in the state and impacted the lives of ~3.3m. Total casualties, so
far, stands at 135, almost similar to the 149 casualties witnessed in May-Aug’20.
While Assam has witnessed floods in the past as well, the severity this time has
been quite high v/s prior years and can impact lending operations in the state.
Assam constitutes ~9% of MFI loans and ~8% of total banking units for
BANDHAN.
FY23E
106.6
97.9
41.9
7.5
26.0
NM
129.2
123.1
21.9
2.7
10.6
2.1
2.2
FY24E
140.0
126.0
58.9
7.9
36.6
40.5
159.9
154.6
25.3
3.1
7.6
1.7
1.8
Collection efficiency to take a beating, weekly meetings getting
impacted
Collection efficiency (CE), particularly in Assam, has been severely impacted in
the past due to multiple events such as the CAA agitation, floods, COVID-19
pandemic, etc. CE dropped to as low as 49% in Jun’21. It gradually recovered
and improved to 93% in 4QFY22. The same for the bank improved to 97% from
77% over a similar period. Collections are likely to take a beating due to the
ongoing flood situation. Our industry interaction suggests that weekly meetings
have been impacted and the recovery trajectory will get prolonged.
BANDHAN demonstrated a higher resilience in earlier crises
Historically, BANDHAN has demonstrated higher resilience in dealing with various
crises, and delinquencies have been much lower v/s the industry (refer Exhibit 11-
15). During earlier events, where the customer’s ability to pay or businesses had
got impacted (Cyclone Fani, floods, GST, or demonetization), the incremental loss
rates have been limited. Though CE dropped sharply, the recoveries improved
with a lag. However, when the issue pertains to the willingness or credit culture
(farm loan waiver or Assam agitation), the incremental loss rates have been
higher (3-4% range). The situation in Assam appears grim as the state has been in
recovery mode after the impact posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. We, thus,
remain watchful on near term developments.
Nitin Aggarwal - Research Analyst
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Yash Agarwal
(Yash.Agarwal@motilaloswal.com) |
Vinayak Agarwal
(Vinayak.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
29 June 2022
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.