Sector Update |
Update | Financials
Sector
28 February 2024
Indian Health Insurance
Loss ratios likely to moderate from the elevated 3QFY24 levels
Loss ratio trends for 9MFY24
9mFY23
79 78 78 74
9mFY24
67 65
66
55
82 80 84
78
67 60 66 76
Source: MOFSL
As a follow up to our
SAHI thematic report,
we analyze the industry trends along with
the financial performance of SAHIs and the health segment of key private players.
Slow growth and high loss ratios have been the key concerns for STARHEAL. However,
we note that the growth has been steady (16-18% YoY) and is driven by price hikes
and the sum assured. The policy growth rate has been restricted, though, owing to the
company’s conscious strategy of exiting certain cohorts.
Loss ratios for HDFC Ergo/ICICI Lombard/BAGIC rose 210bp/110bp/1,520bp YoY in
3QFY24, while Star Health/Care Health/Aditya Birla Health reported 390bp/620bp/
360bp YoY increase in loss ratios during the quarter. The increase was primarily due to
the elevated claims for respiratory disorders until Oct'23.
However, our channel checks have indicated an improved trajectory over the past
three months, which would help improve the loss ratios in 4QFY24.
Overall premiums in the health insurance segment continue to grow at a healthy pace,
with 10MFY24 growth at 20.8% YoY vs. overall general insurance industry growth of
13.1% YoY. The segment contributed 37.7% of the total premium vs. 35.3% in 10MFY23.
The retail health insurance segment recorded healthy growth of 19.1%/21.5% YoY in
10MFY24/Jan'24. Within this, SAHIs/Private/PSUs grew 24%/17%/10% YoY over
10MFY24 and rose 26%/17%/14% YoY in Jan'24.
With EOM regulations in force, the group segment posted a robust growth of 20%/
16% YoY in 10MFY24/Jan'24. Within this, SAHIs/Private/PSUs grew 36%/31%/9% YoY
over 10MFY24 and rose 36%/19%/1% YoY in Jan'24.
Considering the long-term growth potential for the industry, along with investments
by STARHEAL in profitable channels and products, we reiterate our BUY rating on the
stock with a TP of INR730 (based on 30x FY26E EPS).
Premium growth remains healthy across segments
During 10MFY24, the overall health insurance industry posted a growth of
20.8% YoY fueled by 19.1%/20.0%/27.0% YoY growth in Retail/Group/Govt.
schemes. SAHIs/Pvt/PSUs recorded a growth of 27%/41%/5% YoY. Ex-BAGIC,
which saw a 126% YoY surge, the private players posted a growth of 28% YoY.
In the retail health segment, SAHIs/Pvt/PSUs registered growth of 24%/
17%/10% YoY. The growth was fueled primarily by the price hikes implemented
and increase in the sum assured.
In terms of growth in retail health, CARE led the SAHI pack (~46% growth) over
10MFY24. Growth for STARHEAL was restricted to 17% YoY, owing to its
conscious strategy of exiting certain high-loss ratio cohorts. Similarly, among
private companies, TATA AIG/ILOM/HDFC Ergo/BAGIC reported growth of 30%/
20%/14%/12% YoY.
During 9MFY24, the policy growth rate for STARHEAL/CARE/Manipal
Cigna/Aditya Birla Health stood at 1.8%/13.1%/2.8%/6.7% YoY. For private
sector players, the rate of policy growth/decline for ILOM/Tata AIA/HDFC Ergo
was 6.8%/6%/-3.2% YoY.
In terms of growth in group health, Niva led the SAHI pack (~75% growth) over
10MFY24. Among private companies, TATA AIG/ILOM/HDFC Ergo/BAGIC
reported growth of 25%/31%/24%/46% YoY.
Investors are
28 February 2024
Research Analyst: Prayesh Jain
(Prayesh.Jain@MotilalOswal.com) |
Nemin Doshi
(Nemin.Doshi@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com) |
Muskan Chopra
(Muskan.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com)
advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.