March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
Cement
Result Preview
Robust volume growth; weak cement prices led to earnings cut
Estimate volume growth of ~10% YoY for coverage universe in 4QFY24
Company
ACC
Ambuja Cements
Birla Corporation
Dalmia Bharat
Grasim Industries
India Cements
JK Cement
JK Lakshmi Cement
The Ramco Cements
Shree Cement
UltraTech Cement
We estimate our coverage universe to report strong volume growth of 10% YoY
(three-year CAGR at ~8%) in 4QFY24. Further, we estimate average capacity
utilization of ~93% vs. ~91%/79% in 4QFY23/3QFY24. However, cement price
corrected across regions in 4Q and the all-India average cement price was down
~7% (down INR25 per 50-kg bag) QoQ. We estimate blended realization for our
coverage universe to decline ~3%/4% YoY/QoQ.
Given the sharp price correction in 4QFY24, we estimate average EBITDA/t to
decline ~12% QoQ to INR990 (vs. our earlier estimate of INR1,100), which would
partly be offset by positive operating leverage and favorable fuel prices.
Aggregate EBITDA is estimated to increase 24% YoY, while OPM is expected to
improve by 2.6pp YoY to 18.2%.
GRASIM’s revenue is estimated to decline 3% YoY. VSF volume is estimated to
increase 5% YoY, while realization is estimated to decline 6% YoY (up ~1% QoQ).
Chemical segment volume is estimated to increase 6% YoY, while realization
could decline by 20% YoY. We expect the company’s EBITDA to increase 20%
YoY and EBITDA margin to improve 1.6pp YoY to 8%. Adjusted PAT is estimated
to grow 80% YoY.
Volume strong; however, weak pricing drive EBITDA/t reduction QoQ
Following a moderate growth in 3QFY24, cement volumes experienced a
significant surge in 4QFY24, driven by robust demand from infrastructure, real-
estate, and a pick-up in private capex. We estimate a ~15% YoY volume growth
for JKCE, followed by ~11-12% for ACC, ACEM, BCORP, DALBHARA, and UTCEM,
~7-8% for SRCM, TRCL, and JKLC while, ICEM’s volume is estimated to remain
flat.
However, cement prices have undergone a correction across regions in 4QFY24.
The East and South regions witnessed the highest decline of ~8-9% QoQ,
followed by the North and West regions with a ~7% and Central India with ~3%
decline. We estimate the blended realization for our coverage universe to
decline by ~3%/4% YoY/QoQ.
Average Opex/t for our coverage universe is estimated to decline 6% YoY (down
3% QoQ), supported by reduction in input material cost. We estimate average
variable cost/t to decline INR314/t YoY (a decline of INR67/t QoQ).
ACC and JKCE are estimated to report strong YoY EBITDA growth at ~74-75%.
EBITDA is estimated to grow 45% YoY for BCORP, 27-28% YoY for JKLC and
SRCM, and 13-18% for ACEM, DALBHARA, and UTCEM. EBITDA is likely to
decline 3% YoY for TRCL. ICEM is likely to report EBITDA of INR475m vs.
operating loss of INR445m in 4QFY23.
We expect EBITDA/t of INR1,218 for SRCM (the highest in our coverage
universe), followed by INR1,133 for JKCE and INR1,069/INR1,038 for UTCEM/
ACEM. EBITDA/t is estimated to fall within the range of INR790-970 for ACC,
BCORP, DALBHARA, JKLC, and TRCL, with INR171 for ICEM.
Sanjeev Kumar Singh - Research analyst
(Sanjeev.Singh@MotilalOswal.com)
Mudit Agarwal - Research analyst
(Mudit.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
January 2023
1
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
Reduce earnings estimates to factor in sharp price correction
Despite higher capacity utilizations (over 90%) during the quarter, cement prices
corrected sharply across regions. This has led to lower profitability in 4Q and risk
to our FY25/FY26 earnings estimate.
Demand in 1HFY25 is estimated to be moderate due to the general elections till
May’24-end, followed by the monsoon season. Further, continuous capacity
expansions by leading industry players (UTCEM commissioned cement capacity
of 11.4mtpa and SRCM commissioned 6.3mtpa in CY24-till date), and ramping-
up of acquired assets are likely to keep prices under check.
Given the lower exit prices of Mar’24 and increased competitive intensity, we do
not foresee a sustainable price hike in the near term. Hence, we cut our
aggregate EBITDA estimate by 3.7%/3.5% (including recent earnings cut for
DALBHARA and SRCM in our company update notes) for FY25/FY26. This, in
turn, led to 3.8%/5.0% reduction in aggregate profit for companies in our
cement universe in FY25/FY26.
Earnings sensitivity to remain higher on price hikes
We estimate cement demand to register a CAGR of ~7% over FY24-26, higher
than our estimate for clinker capacity additions (~6% CAGR over FY24-26).
Further, the industry’s clinker utilization increased to ~79% in FY24 vs. ~76% in
FY23. We estimate clinker utilization to further increase to 80%/81% in
FY25/FY26.
Fuel prices remain stable in the last few months, and we believe earnings
sensitivity to remain higher, largely due to the pricing behaviors of industry
players.
Key risk to our estimate are:
1) substantial sustainable price hikes by
the industry players to protect margins in an expected low demand
environment till 1HFY25; and 2) increase in fuel prices.
We continue to prefer UTCEM in the large-cap space. We prefer DALBHARA and
JKCE in the mid-cap space.
Exhibit 1:
Summary of 4QFY24 estimates
Companies
ACC
Ambuja Cements
Birla Corporation
Dalmia Bharat
Grasim Industries
India Cements
JK Cement
JK Lakshmi Cem.
Ramco Cements
Shree Cement
Ultratech Cement
Cement
CMP
(INR)
2544
621
1478
1997
2291
220
4277
883
845
26487
9956
Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Sales (INR m)
Mar'24 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
51,223
6.9
4.1
47,121
10.7
6.1
26,487
7.6
14.6
41,676
6.5
15.8
64,301
-3.2
0.5
14,244
-2.5
31.7
31,599
13.8
7.7
19,296
3.6
13.3
24,850
-3.3
18.0
49,755
4.0
1.5
2,04,406
9.5
22.1
5,74,959
6.1
12.4
EBITDA (INR m)
Mar'24 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
8,150
74.8
-9.8
9,330
18.4
9.6
3,981
45.1
5.2
8,007
13.2
3.3
5,127
20.3
-1.9
475
LP
-3.1
6,075
73.8
-2.8
2,951
26.8
-2.3
4,003
-3.0
1.2
11,463
28.4
-7.1
37,637
13.3
15.6
97,198
24.2
4.6
PAT (INR m)
Mar'24 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
4,736
65.8
-10.2
6,348
12.8
23.6
1,442
102.5
32.1
2,560
-1.9
-4.8
1,683
80.0
-28.8
-489
Loss
Loss
2,442
117.5
-14.0
1,408
22.6
-0.3
1,060
-30.4
13.6
5,697
45.4
-22.4
20,616
23.7
16.0
47,502
32.1
2.1
April 2024
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
Exhibit 2:
Comparative
valuations
Company Name
Cement
ACC
Ambuja Cements
Birla Corporation
Dalmia Bharat
Grasim Industries
India Cements
JK Cement
JK Lakshmi Cement
Ramco Cements
Shree Cement
Ultratech Cement
CMP
INR
2,544
621
1,478
1,997
2,291
220
4,277
883
845
26,487
9,956
Reco
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
EPS (INR)
PE (x)
PB (x)
ROE (%)
FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E
36.5
31.7
27.3
3.7
3.3
3.0
10.2
10.4
98.4 120.3 132.4 25.3
21.1
19.2
3.0
2.7
2.4
12.4
13.5
12.3
11.4
13.3
49.9
54.6
46.9
4.0
3.3
3.1
13.8
10.4
48.3
70.0
86.8
29.5
21.1
17.0
1.7
1.7
1.6
6.1
8.3
41.0
57.4
76.1
47.4
34.8
26.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
4.8
6.5
94.2
96.1 105.7 24.3
23.8
21.7
3.1
3.0
2.9
4.6
3.0
-7.9
3.4
6.6
-26.9 64.5
33.6
1.2
1.2
1.2
-4.4
1.9
108.1 139.2 174.7 37.7
30.7
24.5
5.9
5.3
4.5
16.7
18.5
35.8
43.6
52.6
24.4
20.3
16.8
3.2
2.9
2.5
14.1
15.1
16.1
26.0
35.1
50.5
32.5
24.1
2.7
2.6
2.4
5.5
8.4
658.6 625.4 671.4 39.0
42.4
39.4
4.6
4.3
4.0
12.3
10.6
235.6 290.5 344.6 41.4
34.3
28.9
4.7
4.3
3.8
11.9
13.2
FY26E
11.1
13.2
9.0
9.5
8.1
3.9
3.6
19.8
16.0
10.4
10.5
14.0
Exhibit 3:
Relative performance – three-months (%)
Nifty Index
104
103
101
100
98
MOFSL Cement Index
Exhibit 4:
Relative performance – one-year (%)
Nifty Index
140
125
MOFSL Cement Index
110
95
80
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Exhibit 5:
Expect 10% YoY growth in aggregate sales volume for our coverage universe
Aggregate Vol (mt)
43
24
6
(12)
60
(29)
42
56
66
75
60
60
YoY change (%)
19
9
18
6
(3)
64
0
9
12
12
15
8
10
75
70
66
72
84
83
75
78
93
Source: MOFSL, Company, E: MOFSL estimate
April 2024
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
Exhibit 6:
Pan-India average cement price down 4%/7% YoY/QoQ
4QFY23
3QFY24
4QFY24
Source: MOFSL, Industry
Exhibit 7:
Expect realization to decline 3%/4% YoY/QoQ
Realization (INR/t)
Exhibit 8:
Average USA Petcoke price down 9% QoQ in 4Q
USA Petcoke
Source: MOFSL; E: MOFSL estimate
Source: MOFSL, Industry
Exhibit 9:
Average South African coal price down 15% QoQ
South African coal
Exhibit 10:
Expect average EBITDA/t to increase 13% YoY
Average EBITDA (INR/t)
Source: Bloomberg, MOFSL
Source: Company, MOFSL; E: MOFSL estimate
Exhibit 11:
Key operating parameters
Companies
ACC
Ambuja Cements
Birla Corporation
Dalmia Bharat
India Cements
JK Cement
JK Lakshmi Cement
The Ramco Cements
Shree Cement
UltraTech Cement
Sector aggregate/avg.
Volume (mt)
4QFY24E
YoY (%)
QoQ (%)
9.6
12.4
7.6
9.0
11.3
9.6
5.0
11.9
18.3
8.3
12.2
22.1
2.8
(0.4)
39.7
5.4
14.8
13.9
3.5
7.8
17.8
5.0
7.2
26.0
9.4
6.6
5.9
35.2
11.2
28.9
93.1
10.4
19.5
Realization (INR/t)
4QFY24E YoY (INR) QoQ (INR)
5,359
(277)
(179)
5,243
(30)
(171)
5,329
(217)
(175)
5,021
(265)
(273)
5,137
(107)
(314)
5,894
(53)
(343)
5,534
(223)
(218)
4,932
(536)
(334)
5,287
(133)
(226)
5,804
(88)
(323)
5,485
(154)
(255)
EBITDA (INR/t)
4QFY24E YoY (INR) QoQ (INR)
853
304
(164)
1,038
62
0
801
183
(100)
965
9
(175)
171
331
(76)
1,133
385
(195)
846
127
(174)
794
(84)
(194)
1,218
207
(170)
1,069
20
(123)
990
111
(136)
April 2024
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
Exhibit 12:
Summary of changes in our earnings estimates
Revised
FY25E
FY26E
149.7
172.8
44.2
51.2
47.5
53.8
36.4
39.9
32.5
39.7
25.3
28.9
19.2
22.3
16.0
17.7
5.6
6.8
11.8
14.0
EBITDA (INR b)
EPS (INR)
Earlier
Change (%)
Revised
Earlier
Change (%)
FY25E
FY26E
FY25E FY26E
FY25E
FY26E
FY25E
FY26E
FY25E FY26E
154.7
180.8
-3.2
-4.5
290
345
305
366
-4.8
-6.0
45.8
52.4
-3.5
-2.2
11
13
12
14
-4.1
-2.5
47.5
53.8
0.0
0.0
625
671
625
671
0.0
0.0
36.5
39.9
-0.2
0.1
120
132
121
132
-0.2
0.2
32.5
39.7
0.0
0.0
57
76
57
76
0.0
0.0
24.3
27.3
4.5
5.7
139
175
130
161
7.2
8.3
20.8
23.0
-7.3
-2.9
26
35
31
37
-15.5
-5.8
16.9
18.4
-5.4
-3.4
70
87
74
88
-5.4
-1.5
6.8
7.3
-17.3
-6.8
3
7
6
8
-45.3 -15.4
12.2
14.4
-3.2
-2.5
44
53
45
54
-4.1
-3.0
*Note: We cut earnings estimate for SRCM and DALBHARA in our recent company updates
UTCEM
ACEM
SRCM*
ACC
DALBHARA*
JKCE
TRCL
BCORP
ICEM
JKLC
Exhibit 13:
Revision to our target prices
(INR)
UTCEM
ACEM
SRCM
ACC
DALBHARA*
JKCE
TRCL
BCORP
ICEM
JKLC
New TP
11,300
590
27,700
2,550
2,500
5,350
940
1700
160
1,000
Old TP
12,000
550
27,700
2,550
2,500
5,050
970
1800
185
1,030
Change (%)
-6
7
0
0
0
6
-3
-6
-14
-3
Note: *We cut TP for DALBHARA in our recent company update
Exhibit 14:
Valuation summary
M-cap
(USD b)
ACC
Ambuja Cements
Birla Corporation
Dalmia Bharat
Grasim Industries
India Cements
JK Cement
JK Lakshmi Cement
Ramco Cements
Shree Cement
UltraTech Cement
6.4
16.5
1.5
5.0
20.9
0.9
4.4
1.4
2.7
12.8
38.5
CMP
(INR)
2,544
621
1,478
1,997
2,291
220
4,277
883
845
26,487
9,956
Rating
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY25E
11.3
24.3
8.9
11.3
10.1
17.0
14.3
8.4
12.8
18.8
19.0
FY26E
9.8
21.0
7.5
9.5
7.7
13.6
12.1
6.8
11.0
16.6
16.2
EV/t (USD)
FY25E
149
341
95
104
N/A
80
193
67
142
212
250
FY26E
133
309
83
102
N/A
78
172
57
135
183
234
Net debt/
EBITDA (x)
FY25E
FY26E
(1.6)
(2.0)
(4.6)
(3.9)
2.0
1.6
0.4
0.3
2.4
1.7
5.0
3.9
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.5
2.8
2.2
(0.9)
(0.7)
0.1
(0.3)
Source: MOFSL, Company
April 2024
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
The tables below provide a snapshot of actual and estimated numbers for companies under the MOFSL coverage
universe. Highlighted columns indicate the quarter/financial year under review.
ACC
CMP: INR2,544 | TP: INR2,550 (+0.2%)
We expect sales volume to grow 12% YoY, whereas
cement realization could decline 5% YoY and 4% QoQ.
We expect EBITDA/t at INR853 vs. INR549/INR1,017 in
4QFY23/3QFY24.
Standalone quarterly performance
Y/E March
Cement Sales (mt)
Change (YoY %)
Net Sales
Change (YoY %)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO Item
EO Income/(Expense)
PBT after EO Item
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Margin (%)
Change (YoY %)
Neutral
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -0.2|+0.2
Variable cost/t to decline 17% YoY (up 2% QoQ). Opex/t is
estimated to decline 11% YoY (flat QoQ).
Depreciation cost is estimated to increase 37% YoY. Adj.
PAT is likely to increase 66% YoY.
(INR b)
FY23*
FY24
FY23*
FY24E
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
5Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4QE
7.90
7.59
6.85
7.70
8.50
9.40
8.10
8.88
9.56
38.6
35.9
(0.9)
11.0
4.3
2.8
7.6
23.8
18.2
15.3
12.4
31.3
16.4
44.3
44.7
39.9
45.4
47.9
52.0
44.3
49.2
51.2
222.1
196.8
3.1
15.0
6.4
7.4
8.2
16.4
11.2
8.4
6.9
37.5
(11.4)
6.3
4.3
0.2
3.8
4.7
7.7
5.5
9.0
8.1
19.2
30.4
14.3
9.5
0.4
8.3
9.7
14.8
12.4
18.4
15.9
8.6
15.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.4
8.4
8.8
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.8
1.2
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.4
1.2
0.8
2.1
0.8
0.9
3.4
4.6
5.3
3.0
-1.0
2.3
3.9
6.2
5.2
7.2
6.3
13.4
24.9
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.8
-0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.6
0.0
5.3
3.0
-1.2
1.5
3.3
6.2
5.2
7.2
6.3
11.8
24.9
1.4
0.8
-0.3
0.4
0.9
1.6
1.3
1.9
1.5
3.1
6.4
25.9
25.8
26.0
26.1
27.8
25.5
25.5
26.6
24.6
26.4
25.6
3.9
2.2
-0.9
1.1
2.4
4.6
3.8
5.3
4.7
8.7
18.5
3.9
2.2
-0.8
1.7
2.9
4.6
3.8
5.3
4.7
9.9
18.5
8.8
5.0
-1.9
3.7
6.0
8.9
8.7
10.7
9.2
4.5
9.4
(30.1)
(60.5)
NM
(47.4)
(26.6)
108.8
NM
212.1
65.8
(47.6)
86.9
*Note: FY23 was 15-month period as the company changed its accounting year-end from December to March
Ambuja Cements
CMP: INR621 | TP: INR590 (-5%)
Sales volume to increase 11% YoY, while realization is
estimated to decline 1% YoY and 3% QoQ.
EBITDA/t is expected to be at INR1,038 vs.
INR977/INR1,038 in 4QFY23/3QFY24.
Standalone quarterly performance
Y/E December/March
Sales Volume (mt)
Change (YoY %)
Realization (INR/t)
Change (YoY %)
Net Sales
Change (YoY %)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO Item
Extraordinary Inc./(Exp.)
PBT after EO Exp./(Inc.)
Tax
Prior period tax adj. and reversal
Rate (%)
Reported Profit
Adj. PAT
Change (YoY %)
Neutral
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -4.1|-2.5
We expect variable cost/t to decline 5% YoY and 7% QoQ.
Opex/t is expected to decline 2% YoY and 4% QoQ.
Other income to increase 7%/72% YoY/QoQ due to higher
cash balance. Adjusted PAT is likely to increase 16% YoY.
(INR b)
FY23*
FY24
FY23*
FY24E
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
5Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4QE
7.49
7.39
7.04
7.71
8.07
9.08
7.58
8.20
8.99
37.78
33.85
3
15
14
8
8
23
8
6
11
12
12
5,243 5,404 5,220
5,352
5,273 5,209
5,235
5,414
5,190
5,226
5,221
5
3
(0)
3
1
(4)
0
1
(2)
2
(0)
39.3
39.9
36.8
41.3
42.6
47.3
39.7
44.4
47.1
199.9
178.5
8.4
18.5
13.5
10.5
8.4
18.4
8.0
7.5
10.7
43.0
-10.7
7.9
6.8
3.1
6.3
7.9
9.5
7.7
8.5
9.3
32.2
35.1
20.2
17.1
8.5
15.2
18.5
20.1
19.5
19.2
19.8
16.1
19.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
8.3
9.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.3
1.3
1.6
0.3
6.3
0.4
0.9
1.7
1.9
3.8
1.1
1.9
9.5
8.6
6.5
11.4
1.7
5.3
7.2
8.7
8.8
6.8
8.5
32.1
32.8
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.6
-0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.6
0.0
6.5
11.4
1.6
4.6
6.4
8.7
8.8
6.8
8.5
30.6
32.8
1.6
0.9
0.2
0.9
1.4
2.2
2.4
1.7
2.1
5.0
8.4
0.0
1.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
0.0
24.2
21.1
11.7
20.4
21.9
25.6
26.8
24.5
25.3
21.3
25.6
4.9
10.5
1.4
3.7
5.0
6.4
6.4
5.1
6.3
25.5
24.4
4.9
9.0
1.5
4.1
5.6
6.4
6.4
5.1
6.3
25.2
24.4
(25.6)
24.2 (65.9)
37.9
13.8 (28.2)
328.5
23.8
12.8
18.4
(3.3)
*Note: FY23 is 15-month period as the company changed its accounting year-end from December to March
April 2024
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
Birla Corporation
CMP: INR1,478 | TP: INR1,700 (+15%)
We estimate a volume growth of 12% YoY. Realization is
expected to decline 4% YoY/QoQ.
We expect EBITDA/t at INR801 vs. INR618/INR901 in
4QFY23/3QFY24.
Consolidated performance
Y/E March
Sales volume (mt)
Change (YoY %)
Cement Realization (INR/t)
Change (YoY %)
Net Sales
Change (YoY %)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
Profit before Tax
EO (Income)/Expense
Profit before Tax after EO
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj. PAT
Margin (%)
Change (YoY %)
1Q
3.93
17.3
5,344
8.1
22.0
26.0
2.6
11.8
1.1
0.7
0.1
0.9
0.1
0.8
0.2
19.7
0.6
0.7
3.2
(49.6)
FY23
2Q
3Q
3.64
3.72
11.3
11.0
5,151
5,177
5.6
4.9
20.0
20.2
17.8
15.2
0.9
1.4
4.7
7.2
1.3
1.3
0.9
0.9
0.4
0.1
-0.8
-0.6
-
-
-0.8
-0.6
-0.3
-0.1
31.5
22.6
-0.6
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-2.8
-2.5
NM
NM
4Q
4.44
4.7
5,279
4.1
24.6
8.8
2.7
11.1
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.9
(0.2)
1.1
0.3
24.8
0.8
0.7
2.9
(48.5)
1Q
4.41
12.2
5,229
(2.2)
24.1
9.3
3.0
12.4
1.4
1.0
0.2
0.8
-
0.8
0.2
21.7
0.6
0.6
2.5
(16.2)
FY24
2Q
3Q
4.18
4.20
14.8
12.9
5,211
5,316
1.2
2.7
22.9
23.1
14.3
14.7
2.9
3.8
12.6
16.4
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.0
0.3
0.2
0.8
1.5
0.0
-
0.8
1.5
0.2
0.4
24.3
28.9
0.6
1.1
0.6
1.1
2.6
4.7
NM
NM
FY23
4QE
4.97
11.9
5,090
(3.6)
26.5
7.6
4.0
15.0
1.5
1.0
0.4
1.9
-
1.9
0.5
24.8
1.4
1.4
5.4
102.5
15.73
10.6
5,242
5.7
86.8
16.4
7.7
8.9
5.1
3.4
1.1
0.4
(0.1)
0.4
0.0
6.1
0.4
0.4
0.4
(91.4)
Buy
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -5.4|-1.5
Variable cost/t is estimated to decline 19% YoY and 2%
QoQ. Opex/t is estimated to decline 8% YoY and 2% QoQ.
Depreciation/interest is likely to increase 4%/10% YoY.
Adj. PAT is estimated to increase 103% YoY.
(INR b)
FY24E
17.76
12.9
5,207
(0.7)
96.5
11.2
13.6
14.1
5.7
3.9
1.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
1.3
25.5
3.7
3.7
3.8
929.7
Dalmia Bharat
CMP: INR1,997| TP: INR2,500 (+25%)
We estimate sales volume to grow 12% YoY. Realization to
decline 5% YoY and QoQ.
We estimate EBITDA/t to be at INR965 vs. INR955/
INR1,140 in 4QFY23/3QFY24.
Consolidated performance
Y/E March
Sales volume (mt)
Change (YoY %)
Realization (INR/t)
Change (YoY %)
Net Sales
Change (YoY %)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO Expense
Extra-Ord. expense
PBT after EO Expense
Tax
Prior period tax adj.
Rate (%)
Reported PAT (pre-minority)
Minority + associate
PAT Adj. for EO items
Change (YoY %)
1Q
6.2
26.8
5,326
0.5
33.0
27.4
5.9
17.7
3.1
0.5
0.2
2.5
0.0
2.5
0.6
0.0
25.5
1.9
-0.1
2.0
-30.4
FY23
2Q
5.8
13.7
5,122
1.2
29.7
15.1
3.8
12.8
3.3
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.3
-0.2
-0.3
23.3
0.5
-0.1
0.3
-87.4
3Q
6.3
10.5
5,325
11.0
33.6
22.7
6.4
19.2
3.3
0.7
0.4
2.9
0.0
2.9
0.7
0.0
25.5
2.1
0.1
2.0
286.5
4Q
7.4
12.1
5,286
3.2
39.1
15.7
7.1
18.1
3.4
0.6
0.4
3.5
-3.9
7.3
1.3
0.0
36.5
6.1
0.2
2.6
-1.9
1Q
7.0
12.4
5,199
-2.4
36.2
9.8
6.1
16.8
4.0
0.8
0.6
1.9
0.0
1.9
0.4
0.0
22.2
1.4
0.1
1.3
-33.3
FY24
2Q
6.2
6.9
5,079
-0.8
31.5
6.0
5.9
18.7
4.0
1.0
0.9
1.7
0.0
1.7
0.5
0.0
27.9
1.2
0.1
1.2
325.0
FY23
3Q
6.8
7.9
5,294
-0.6
36.0
7.3
7.8
21.5
3.7
1.1
0.6
3.6
0.0
3.6
1.0
0.1
24.7
2.7
0.0
2.7
33.8
4QE
8.3
12.2
5,021
-5.0
41.7
6.5
8.0
19.2
3.8
1.1
0.7
3.8
0.0
3.8
1.0
0.0
27.1
2.7
0.2
2.6
-1.9
25.7
15.3
5,268
4.1
135.4
20.0
23.2
17.1
13.1
2.3
1.4
9.2
-3.9
13.0
2.4
-0.3
29.6
10.6
0.2
6.9
-16.5
Buy
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: --|--
We estimate variable cost/t to decline 9% YoY (flat QoQ).
While opex/t is likely to decline 6% YoY and 2% QoQ.
Depreciation/interest cost is estimated to increase 14%/
70% YoY. Adj. PAT is estimated to decline 2% YoY.
(INR b)
FY24E
28.3
10.0
5,143
-2.4
145.4
7.4
27.7
19.1
15.5
4.0
2.7
10.9
0.0
10.9
2.9
0.1
26.7
8.1
0.4
7.7
13.0
April 2024
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
Grasim Industries
CMP: INR2,291 | TP: INR2,650 (+16%)
We expect revenue for the VSF segments to decline 1%
YoY, while for the Chemical segment it is expected to drop
15% YoY.
EBITDA for the VSF segment is expected to grow 166% YoY
and OPM is expected to increase 6.5pp YoY to 10.3%.
Chemical segment’s EBITDA is expected to decline 19%
YoY, and OPM should contract 80bp YoY to 14.6%.
Standalone performance
Y/E Marchne)
Net Sales
Change (YoY %)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO Items
Extraordinary Inc./(Exp.)
PBT after EO Items
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Prior period tax/DTL reversal
Adj. PAT
Margin (%)
Change (YoY %)
1Q
72.5
92.8
13.2
18.2
2.6
0.9
0.4
10.2
-
10.2
2.1
20.9
8.1
-
8.1
11.1
81.3
FY23
2Q
3Q
67.5
62.0
36.7
7.1
9.6
4.8
14.2
7.7
2.7
2.8
0.9
0.9
7.6
1.0
13.6
2.2
(0.9)
-
12.7
2.2
3.1
-0.4
24.2
(19.7)
9.6
2.6
-
(1.0)
10.3
1.6
15.3
2.6
8.8
(67.1)
4Q
66.5
4.2
4.3
6.4
3.0
1.1
1.2
1.4
-
1.4
0.4
30.9
0.9
-
0.9
1.4
(73.2)
1Q
62.4
(14.0)
6.7
10.8
2.9
1.1
1.2
4.0
-
4.0
0.4
10.2
3.6
-
3.6
5.7
(56.1)
FY24
2Q
64.4
(4.5)
5.9
9.2
2.9
1.1
7.6
9.6
-
9.6
1.6
16.8
7.9
-
7.9
12.3
(22.9)
FY23
3Q
64.0
3.3
5.2
8.2
3.0
1.1
1.2
2.4
-
2.4
0.0
1.2
2.4
-
2.4
3.7
46.9
4QE
64.3
(3.2)
5.1
8.0
3.1
1.1
1.3
2.2
-
2.2
0.5
22.7
1.7
-
1.7
2.6
80.0
268.4
28.7
31.8
11.8
11.0
3.7
10.2
27.3
(0.9)
26.5
5.2
19.7
21.2
(1.0)
20.9
7.8
(6.2)
Buy
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -0.4|+0.1
We expect blended EBITDA/kg of INR17.9 for the VSF
segment vs. INR13.6/INR18.7 in 4QFY23/3QFY24.
Standalone EBITDA is expected to grow 20% YoY to INR5b
and OPM is estimated to increase 1.6pp YoY to 8%.
Adjusted profit to increase 80% YoY to INR1.7b (down 29%
QoQ due to higher tax).
(INR b)
FY24E
255.1
(5.0)
23.0
9.0
11.9
4.3
11.2
18.1
-
18.1
2.5
14.0
15.5
-
15.5
6.1
(25.7)
India Cements
CMP: INR220 | TP: INR160 (-27%)
We expect volume to be flat YoY and blended realization
to decline 2% YoY and 6% QoQ.
We estimate blended EBITDA/t of INR171 vs. operating
loss/t at INR160 in 4QFY23.
Standalone performance
Y/E March
Sales volume (mt)
Change (YoY %)
Realization (INR/t)
Change (YoY %)
Net Sales
Change (YoY %)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
Extra-Ord. expense
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Tax
Adj. PAT
Change (YoY %)
Margin (%)
1Q
2.7
37.4
5,413
3.0
14.5
41.4
0.3
2.1
0.5
0.6
0.1
(0.7)
-
(0.7)
(1.5)
205.7
0.8
(1.5)
(0.7)
NM
(5.0)
FY23
2Q
2.3
(4.5)
5,566
10.4
12.5
5.4
(0.9)
(7.3)
0.5
0.7
0.0
(2.1)
-
(2.1)
(0.7)
33.5
(1.4)
-
(1.4)
NM
(11.0)
3Q
2.2
3.5
5,589
6.3
12.2
10.0
(0.7)
(5.7)
0.5
0.6
0.0
(1.8)
(2.9)
1.1
0.2
20.5
0.9
-
(1.4)
NM
(11.7)
4Q
2.8
4.8
5,244
0.1
14.6
4.9
(0.4)
(3.0)
0.5
0.5
0.2
(1.3)
1.1
(2.4)
(0.2)
10.1
(2.2)
(0.2)
(1.2)
NM
(7.9)
1Q
2.7
(0.2)
5,225
(3.5)
13.9
(3.7)
0.1
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.1
(1.0)
-
(1.0)
(0.2)
23.9
(0.8)
-
(0.8)
NM
(5.4)
FY24
2Q
3Q
2.4
2.0
5.1
(9.0)
5,157
5,450
(7.4)
(2.5)
12.2
10.8
(2.6)
(11.3)
0.1
0.5
0.7
4.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.1
0.2
(1.0)
(0.5)
-
(0.3)
(1.0)
(0.2)
(0.2)
(0.1)
17.6
31.3
(0.8)
(0.2)
-
-
(0.8)
(0.3)
NM
NM
(6.7)
(3.2)
FY23
4QE
2.8
(0.4)
5,137
(2.0)
14.2
(2.5)
0.5
3.3
0.6
0.6
0.1
(0.6)
-
(0.6)
(0.1)
12.4
(0.5)
-
(0.5)
NM
(3.4)
9.9
9.1
5,439
4.7
53.8
14.2
(1.7)
(3.2)
2.1
2.3
0.3
(5.9)
(1.8)
(4.1)
(2.2)
53.7
(1.9)
(1.7)
(4.7)
NM
(8.7)
Sell
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -45.3|-15.4
We expect variable cost/t to decline 14%/2% YoY/QoQ.
Opex/t is estimated to decline 8%/5% YoY/QoQ.
ICEM should report a net loss of INR489m vs. a loss of
INR1.2b/INR345m in 4QFY23/3QFY24.
(INR b)
FY24E
9.8
(1.0)
5,229
(3.9)
51.2
(4.8)
1.1
2.1
2.2
2.4
0.4
(3.0)
(0.3)
(2.8)
(0.6)
20.0
(2.2)
-
(2.4)
NM
(4.7)
April 2024
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
JK Cement
CMP: INR4,277 | TP: INR5,350 (+25%)
We estimate JKCE’s volume to grow 15% YoY. Blended
realization is estimated to decline 1% YoY/6% QoQ.
We estimate EBITDA/t at INR1,133 vs. INR748/INR1,329 in
4QFY23/3QFY24.
Consolidated performance
Y/E March
Sales volume (mt)
Change (YoY %)
Realization (INR/t)
Change (YoY %)
Net Sales
Change (YoY %)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
Extra-Ord. expense
PBT
Tax
Profit from associate and MI
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj. PAT
Change (YoY %)
1Q
3.7
22.0
6,149
8.6
22.7
32.4
4.0
17.8
1.1
0.7
0.2
2.5
-
2.5
0.9
(0.0)
35.8
1.6
1.6
(15.3)
FY23
2Q
3Q
3.6
4.1
9.4
24.8
6,138
5,879
7.9
(3.8)
22.4
24.4
18.0
20.0
3.1
2.5
14.0
10.2
1.1
1.2
0.7
0.8
0.1
0.2
1.5
0.7
-
-
1.5
0.7
0.4
0.3
(0.0)
(0.0)
27.6
46.2
1.1
0.4
1.1
0.4
(26.1)
(73.2)
4Q
4.7
15.8
5,947
2.1
27.8
18.1
3.5
12.6
1.3
1.0
0.4
1.6
-
1.6
0.5
(0.0)
30.5
1.1
1.1
(43.1)
1Q
4.6
25.4
5,968
(2.9)
27.6
21.7
4.1
14.8
1.3
1.1
0.3
2.0
0.2
1.8
0.7
(0.0)
37.2
1.1
1.2
(23.7)
FY24
2Q
3Q
4.5
4.7
24.5
13.5
6,068
6,238
(1.1)
6.1
27.5
29.3
23.1
20.5
4.7
6.3
17.0
21.3
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.1
0.3
0.4
2.4
4.1
-
-
2.4
4.1
0.7
1.3
(0.0)
(0.0)
26.9
30.6
1.8
2.8
1.8
2.8
59.8
628.0
4QE
5.4
14.8
5,894
(0.9)
31.6
13.8
6.1
19.2
1.5
1.2
0.4
3.8
-
3.8
1.3
-
35.6
2.4
2.4
117.5
Buy
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: +7.2|+8.3
Opex/t is estimated to decline 8% YoY/3% QoQ. Variable
cost/t is likely to decline 17% YoY (decline by 1% QoQ).
Depreciation/interest cost should increase 13%/14% YoY.
Adj. PAT is estimated to increase 118% YoY.
(INR b)
FY23 FY24E
16.23
16.4
5,988
4.5
97.2
21.6
13.1
13.5
4.6
3.1
0.9
6.3
-
6.3
2.1
(0.1)
32.5
4.3
4.3
(37.9)
19.23
18.5
6,037
0.8
116.1
19.4
21.1
18.2
5.6
4.6
1.4
12.3
0.2
12.1
3.9
(0.0)
32.2
8.2
8.3
95.1
JK Lakshmi
CMP: INR883 | TP: INR1,000 (+13%)
Sales volume is expected to increase 8% YoY. Realization is
expected to decline 4% YoY/QoQ.
EBITDA/t is estimated at INR846 vs. INR719/INR1,021 in
4QFY23/3QFY24.
Consolidated performance
Y/E March
Sales volume (mt)
Change (YoY %)
Realization (INR/t)
Change (YoY %)
Net Sales
Change (YoY %)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
Extra-Ord. expense
PBT
Tax
Prior period tax adj.
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj. PAT
Change (YoY %)
1Q
3.00
8.3
5,514
15.2
16.5
24.8
2.6
15.5
0.6
0.4
0.1
1.7
-
1.7
0.6
-
33.1
1.2
1.2
(15.5)
FY23
2Q
2.43
1.2
5,645
12.3
13.7
13.6
1.6
11.9
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.9
-
0.9
0.3
-
33.8
0.6
0.6
(29.2)
3Q
2.75
7.8
5,677
12.7
15.6
21.5
1.9
11.9
0.6
0.4
0.1
1.1
-
1.1
0.3
-
27.9
0.8
0.8
17.7
4Q
3.23
(0.9)
5,758
17.4
18.6
16.4
2.3
12.5
0.6
0.3
0.2
1.6
-
1.6
0.5
-
29.0
1.1
1.1
(46.7)
1Q
3.04
1.2
5,699
3.4
17.3
4.6
2.0
11.3
0.6
0.3
0.1
1.2
-
1.2
0.4
-
32.7
0.8
0.8
(30.7)
FY24
2Q
2.73
12.3
5,763
2.1
15.7
14.6
2.2
13.8
0.6
0.3
0.1
1.4
-
1.4
0.5
-
32.0
1.0
1.0
55.2
FY23
3Q
2.96
7.6
5,753
1.3
17.0
9.0
3.0
17.7
0.7
0.4
0.2
2.1
(0.1)
2.2
0.7
-
32.7
1.5
1.4
82.3
4QE
3.49
7.8
5,534
(3.9)
19.3
3.6
3.0
15.3
0.7
0.4
0.2
2.1
-
2.1
0.7
-
31.7
1.4
1.4
22.6
11.42
4
5,650
14.5
64.5
19.0
8.4
13.0
2.3
1.3
0.6
5.3
-
5.3
1.7
-
30.9
3.7
3.7
(26.9)
Buy
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -4.1|-3.0
We expect Opex/t to decline 7%/1% YoY/QoQ. Variable
cost is likely to decline 13% YoY (up 2% QoQ).
Depreciation/interest cost should increase 20%/30% YoY/
QoQ. PAT is estimated to grow 28% YoY.
(INR b)
FY24E
12.21
7
5,679
0.5
69.4
7.5
10.1
14.6
2.5
1.4
0.6
6.8
(0.1)
6.9
2.2
-
32.2
4.7
4.6
24.0
April 2024
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
The Ramco Cements
CMP: INR845 | TP: INR940 (+11%)
We expect volumes to rise 7% YoY. Realization to decline
6% QoQ, due to significant price correction in the east and
south regions.
EBITDA/t is estimated at INR794 vs. INR878/INR988 in
4QFY23/3QFY24.
Quarterly performance
Y/E March
Sales Volume (mt)
Change (YoY %)
Cement Realization (INR/t)
Change (YoY %)
Net Sales
Change (YoY %)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
PBT
Tax
Prior year tax adj.
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj. PAT
Change (YoY %)
Margin (%)
1Q
3.31
54.6
5,298
(6.2)
17.7
44.3
3.0
17.0
1.1
0.5
0.1
1.5
1.5
0.4
-
27.0
1.1
1.1
(33.6)
6.3
FY23
2Q
3Q
3.35
3.64
23.5
21.1
5,253
5,515
(2.5)
7.3
17.8
20.1
19.5
29.7
1.8
2.8
10.3
14.2
1.2
1.4
0.6
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.2
1.0
0.2
1.0
0.0
0.3
-
-
28.4
30.7
0.1
0.7
0.1
0.7
(94.7)
(18.4)
0.6
3.4
Neutral
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -15.5|-5.8
Expect variable cost/t to decline 19% YoY. Opex/t is likely
to decline ~10% YoY.
Depreciation/interest cost to increase 19%/34% YoY. PAT
is estimated to decline 30% YoY.
FY24
2Q
3Q
4.61
4.00
37.7
9.9
5,053
5,265
(3.8)
(4.5)
23.3
21.1
30.5
4.8
4.0
4.0
17.1
18.8
1.6
1.7
1.2
1.0
0.1
0.1
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.3
0.4
0.4
-
-
26.7
30.8
1.0
0.9
1.0
0.9
783.2
38.6
4.3
4.4
FY23
4QE
5.04
7.2
4,932
(9.7)
24.9
(3.3)
4.0
16.1
1.7
1.0
0.2
1.5
1.5
0.4
-
27.4
1.1
1.1
(30.4)
4.3
15.02
34.8
5,384
1.3
81.4
36.0
11.8
14.5
5.0
2.4
0.4
4.7
4.7
1.3
-
27.5
3.4
3.4
(41.8)
4.2
(INR b)
FY24E
17.95
19.5
5,104
(5.2)
91.6
12.6
15.4
16.8
6.4
4.2
0.4
5.3
5.3
1.5
-
28.0
3.8
3.8
10.5
4.1
4Q
4.70
45.5
5,464
3.4
25.7
50.3
4.1
16.1
1.4
0.8
0.1
2.1
2.1
0.5
-
26.3
1.5
1.5
23.7
5.9
1Q
4.30
29.9
5,212
(1.6)
22.4
26.4
3.4
15.2
1.5
0.9
0.1
1.1
1.1
0.3
-
27.0
0.8
0.8
(29.7)
3.5
Shree Cement
CMP: INR26,487| TP: INR27,700 (+5%)
We expect volume to increase 7% YoY. Blended realization
to decline 2%/4% YoY/QoQ.
We estimate EBITDA/t at INR1,218 vs. INR1,011/INR1,388
in 4QFY23/3QFY24.
Standalone quarterly performance
Y/E March
Sales Volume (mt)
Change (YoY %)
Blended Realization (INR/t)
Change (YoY %)
Net Sales
Change (YoY %)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO Exp.
Extra-Ord. Expense
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Prior period Tax adjustment
Adj. PAT
Change (YoY %)
1Q
7.50
9.7
5,602
11.1
42.0
21.8
8.2
19.5
3.3
0.6
-0.2
4.1
0.0
4.1
1.0
23.4
3.2
0.0
3.2
-52.3
FY23
2Q
7.46
18.0
5,071
0.0
37.8
17.9
5.2
13.8
3.6
0.7
1.6
2.5
0.0
2.5
0.6
23.9
1.9
0.0
1.9
-66.9
3Q
8.03
22.6
5,065
-6.6
40.7
14.6
7.1
17.4
4.1
0.7
1.6
3.8
0.0
3.8
1.1
28.0
2.8
0.0
2.8
-43.7
4Q
8.83
10.0
5,420
6.2
47.9
16.7
8.9
18.7
4.4
0.7
1.4
5.1
0.0
5.1
-0.3
23.6
5.5
-1.5
3.9
-28.1
1Q
8.92
18.8
5,607
0.1
50.0
18.9
9.3
18.7
3.1
0.8
1.6
7.1
0.0
7.1
1.3
18.2
5.8
0.0
5.8
84.2
FY24
2Q
3Q
8.20
8.89
9.9
10.7
5,594
5,513
10.3
8.8
45.8
49.0
21.3
20.4
8.7
12.3
19.0
25.2
3.3
3.5
0.7
0.6
1.3
1.4
6.0
9.7
0.0
0.0
6.0
9.7
1.1
2.3
17.6
24.0
4.9
7.3
0.0
0.0
4.9
7.3
159.1
165.3
Neutral
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: --|--
Variable cost/t is estimated to decline 19% YoY. Opex/t is
likely to decline 8% YoY.
PAT is estimated to increase 45% YoY. Our EPS estimate
increase was mainly due to lower depreciation charge vs.
earlier guidance by the management.
FY23
4QE
9.41
6.6
5,287
-2.5
49.8
4.0
11.5
23.0
4.4
0.8
1.5
7.7
0.0
7.7
2.0
26.3
5.7
0.0
5.7
45.4
31.82
14.7
5,292
2.4
168.4
17.5
29.4
17.5
15.5
2.7
4.3
15.6
0.0
15.6
2.3
14.8
13.3
-1.5
11.7
-48.3
(INR b)
FY24E
35.26
10.8
5,519
4.3
194.6
15.6
41.8
21.5
14.3
2.7
5.7
30.5
0.0
30.5
6.7
22.0
23.8
0.0
23.8
102.4
April 2024
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
UltraTech Cement
CMP: INR9,956 | TP: INR11,300 (+13%)
Estimate sales volumes (consolidated) to increase 11% YoY
and blended realization to decline ~2%/5% YoY/QoQ.
RMC revenue is expected to increase 22% YoY. White
cement revenue is expected to be flat YoY.
We expect EBITDA/t at INR1,069 vs. INR1,049/INR1,191 in
4QFY23/3QFY24.
Consolidated performance
1Q
25.0
16.3
6,056
10.2
6.4
151.6
28.2
120.7
30.9
20.4
7.0
2.2
1.1
22.9
-
22.9
7.1
0.0
31.0
15.8
-0.1
15.9
-6.7
FY23
2Q
3Q
23.1
25.9
6.7
11.8
6,014
6,002
8.3
6.9
-0.7
-0.2
138.9
155.2
15.6
19.5
120.3
131.9
18.7
23.4
13.4
15.0
7.1
7.2
2.0
2.2
1.5
1.3
11.0
15.2
-
-
11.0
15.2
3.4
4.6
0.0
0.0
31.2
30.5
7.6
10.6
0.0
0.0
7.6
10.6
-42.5
-9.7
4Q
31.7
14.4
5,893
3.5
-1.8
186.6
18.4
153.4
33.2
17.8
7.6
1.9
1.2
24.9
-
24.9
8.2
0.0
33.0
16.7
0.0
16.7
12.7
1Q
30.0
19.6
5,920
-2.2
0.5
177.4
17.0
146.9
30.5
17.2
7.5
2.1
1.7
22.6
-
22.6
5.8
0.0
25.5
16.9
0.0
16.9
6.3
FY24
2Q
26.7
15.5
5,999
-0.2
1.3
160.1
15.3
134.6
25.5
15.9
8.0
2.3
1.7
16.9
-
16.9
4.1
0.0
24.3
12.8
0.0
12.8
69.6
FY23
3Q
27.3
5.6
6,127
2.1
2.1
167.4
7.9
134.9
32.5
19.4
7.8
2.6
1.4
23.5
-
23.5
5.8
0.0
24.7
17.7
-0.1
17.8
67.9
4QE
35.2
11.2
5,804
-1.5
-5.3
204.4
9.5
166.8
37.6
18.4
7.9
2.8
1.2
28.1
-
28.1
7.3
0.0
25.9
20.8
0.2
20.6
23.7
106.2
12.9
5,957
6.5
632.4
20.2
526.2
106.2
16.8
28.9
8.2
5.0
74.1
-
74.1
23.4
0.0
31.6
50.7
0.0
50.7
-10.6
Buy
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -4.8|-6.0
Variable cost per tonne is estimated to decline 8%/2%
YoY/QoQ. Expect Opex/t to decline 2%/4% YoY/QoQ.
EBITDA is estimated to grow 13% YoY and OPM to surge
60bp YoY to 18.4%.
Interest expense is estimated to increase 46% YoY. Adj.
PAT should surge 24% YoY.
(INR b)
FY24E
119.2
12.3
5,951
-0.1
709.3
12.2
583.1
126.2
17.8
31.2
9.9
6.0
91.1
-
91.1
22.9
0.0
25.2
68.2
0.1
68.1
34.3
Sales Volume (mt)
Change (YoY %)
Blended Realn. (INR/t)
Change (YoY %)
Change (QoQ %)
Net Sales
Change (YoY %)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before EO expense
Extra-Ord. expense
PBT after EO Expense
Tax
Prior period tax adjustment
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Minority Interest
Adj. PAT
Change (YoY %)
April 2024
11
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
NOTES
April 2024
12
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
< - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following 30 days take
appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Reg ulations).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH00000041 2. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in
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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United
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Email: nainesh.rajani@motilaloswal.com
Contact: (+65) 8328 0276
.
Specific Disclosures
1 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company.
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3 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
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5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company
6 MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
7 MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
8 MOFSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months
9 MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
10 MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company
April 2024
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 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
March 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Cement
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The associates of MOFSL may have:
financial interest in the subject company
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received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations
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acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
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Served subject company as its clients during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
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The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securit ies or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or
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Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI:
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April 2024
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