Sector Update | 05 September 2024
Sector Update | Financials
Life Insurance
Recommendation Summary
Reco Target Upside
HDFCLIFE BUY
900
20
SBILIFE
BUY
2,250
18
IPRU
BUY
890
17
LIC
BUY
1,300
22
Max
Neutral 1,080
-3
Concerns behind, strong outlook ahead
Top picks HDFCLIFE, SBILIFE
The life insurance sector has experienced a series of regulatory and taxation changes
(ULIP taxation, non-linked products taxation, EOM regulations, and surrender charges)
over the past few years, which have constrained the outlook of the industry. As a
result, valuations in this sector have undergone significant corrections.
Regulations pertaining to surrender charges have had the most profound impact.
However, with the finalization of these regulations, the associated uncertainty has
diminished. Management commentary on the implications of these changes has
largely been neutral to marginally negative.
Our discussions with agents and distribution partners indicate that the enhanced
liquidity of products under new surrender charges regime has emerged as a
compelling selling point, potentially facilitating an increase in the average ticket size.
Moreover, we anticipate that any rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will
make long-term guaranteed products more attractive again. Notably, protection
products—encompassing both credit protection and individual protection—are
gaining traction, which should help mitigate any adverse effects stemming from
surrender charges.
Looking ahead, forthcoming regulations, such as risk-based solvency and IFRS, are
expected to positively influence financials by releasing capital that can be utilized for
growth and for retaining a larger share of business, particularly in the protection
segment.
In light of these insights, we maintain a positive outlook on the life insurance sector
and recommend BUY ratings for HDFCLIFE, SBILIFE, IPRULIFE, and LIC, whereas we
have a Neutral rating on MAXFIN.
Surrender value regulations, managements guide for stability post some hit
IRDAI released a consultation paper on surrender charges in Nov’23, followed by a
structure in Mar’24 and the final regulations in Jun’24. This sequence of events led
to significant uncertainty regarding the final outcome and the impact of
implementation. While the final regulations have been announced and
implemented from Oct’24, the impact will depend on factors such as: 1) the share of
non-linked business, 2) assumptions with respect to persistency built into the extant
VNB, 3) changes in commission constructs post implementation, and 4) changes in
IRRs post implementation. The key takeaways from management interactions on
surrender charges are as follows:
HDFC Life
Anticipate a gross impact of approximately 100 bp on the company's new
business margin due to higher surrender value payable on early exit; impact is
limited due to a balanced approach to business
Deferment and clawback for commissions may be used for offsetting the impact
of new surrender charges
Product competitiveness will increase with new surrender charge norms; some
calibration in IRRs can be expected
Under the new surrender charges, instead of making the policy paid-up if a
customer surrenders, the impact on HDFCLIFE’s margin will be minimal
Research Analyst: Prayesh Jain
(Prayesh.Jain@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
|
Muskan Chopra
(Muskan.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are
5 September 2024
advised to refer
through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.