Motilal Oswal Financial Services

COPE

The Economy Observer

18 September 2024

India’s Quarterly Economic Outlook – 2QFY25

Real GDP growth could slow toward 6%



For the first time in five quarters, India’s real GDP posted slower-than-expected growth of 6.7% YoY in 1QFY25 vs. the

RBI’s projection of 7.1%. We believe that real GDP growth could stay in the range of 5.7-6.2% in the remaining three

quarters of FY25 (with 6.0-6.3% real GVA growth), implying full-year real GDP growth of 6.1% in FY25 (revised down from

6.5% earlier) vs. 8.2% in FY24. This would be much slower than the RBI’s projection of 7.2% and the Bloomberg consensus

of 6.8%. We expect real GDP growth to improve slightly to 6.3% in FY26 (vs. 6.4% forecasted in Jun’24).

While we expect GDP growth to be slower, headline retail inflation is likely to average ~4.5% YoY in FY25, in line with the

RBI’s projections and market consensus. With inflation projected at 4.7% in 2HFY25 and real GDP growth at sub-6%, the

noise for rate cuts will grow, especially after the US Federal Reserve cuts rates this week. Rate cuts in India, however,

could materialize only in Feb’25, considering the concerns over weak deposit growth and the fact that 2QFY25 GDP

growth would be published at end-Nov’24, very close to early-Dec’24 monetary policy. We expect inflation to rise toward

5.0% in FY26, since we believe that core inflation has bottomed out and will start rising from 2HFY25.

Lastly, we have lowered our current account deficit (CAD) forecasts to 0.8%/0.6% of GDP (USD32.4b/USD26.0b) in

FY25/FY26, compared to 1.2%/1.3% estimated earlier. This is because of a downgrade in GDP growth, an expected

moderation in gold imports and continued strength in services in FY25/FY26. In the absence of any global shock, India’s

foreign exchange reserves will likely continue to rise to mitigate the appreciation bias in Indian Rupee (INR).

Real growth:

We downgrade our real GDP growth forecasts to 6.2%/5.7%/5.7% in

2Q/3Q/4QFY25, implying 6.1% growth in FY25 (cut from 6.5%) vs. 8.2% in FY24. We

revise it only marginally to 6.3% (from 6.4% earlier) for FY26.

An expected real GDP

growth of sub-6% with

average inflation of 4.7% in

2HFY25 does not inspire

confidence for a rate cut in

Dec’24.

Changes to our economic forecasts since

Jun’24

CPI inflation and interest rates:

We keep our headline CPI-inflation forecast

unchanged at 4.5% in FY25, but upgrade it to 5% in FY26. An expected real GDP

growth of sub-6% with average inflation of 4.7% in 2HFY25 does not inspire

confidence for a rate cut in Dec’24, and thus, more likely to materialize in Feb’25.

External sector and INR:

With crude oil prices expected to remain ~USD75/barrel

over the next 18 months, lower gold imports and continued strength in services

trade, India’s CAD could narrow to 0.8%/0.6% of GDP in FY25/FY26, lower than our

earlier forecasts and similar to that in FY24. In the absence of any global shock, it

implies an accretion of USD50b in foreign exchange reserves this year, with INR

remaining stable at ~84/USD.

FY25 Forecasts

FY26 Forecasts

FY24

MOFSL

Jun’24

Sep’24

Jun’24

Sep’24

9.6

10.8

10.0

10.1

10.6

8.2

6.5

6.1

6.4

6.3

7.2

6.0

6.3

6.1

5.4

4.5

4.7

5.0

6.50

6.25

5.75

5.50

82.8

84.0

85.0

84.9

(0.7)

(1.2)

(0.8)

(1.3)

(0.6)

5.6

5.0

4.9

4.5

Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), Reserve Bank of India (RBI), MOFSL

Exhibit 1:

Forecasts of key macroeconomic variables for the Indian economy

Macro indicators

Nominal GDP

Real GDP

Real GVA

Consumer price index

Repo rate (year-end)

USD:INR (average)

Current a/c balance

GoI’s fiscal deficit

Unit

YoY (%)

p.a. (%)

unit

% of GDP

FY22

18.9

9.7

9.4

5.5

4.00

74.5

(1.2)

6.7

FY23

14.2

7.0

6.7

6.6

6.50

80.4

(2.0)

6.4

Nikhil Gupta – Research Analyst

(Nikhil.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com)

Tanisha Ladha–

Research Analyst

(Tanisha.ladha@motilaloswal.com)

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Real GDP

Real GVA/ GDP

growth could

growth expected

decelerate for

at 7.0/7.9% to

sub-6% in

FY24 and

2HFY25

5.8%/6.4% in

FY25F

Low gold

imports to keep

CAD contained,

INR range-

bound in FY25

Headline

inflation

expected to

stay contained

in FY25

In this report, we provide our updated macroeconomic forecasts for India and

discuss the three key themes that are likely to play out in CY24/FY25.

1) For the first time in five quarters, India’s real GDP growth turned out to be

slower-than-projected at 6.7% in 1QFY25 vs the RBI’s projection of 7.1%. As we

had explained earlier, higher growth in FY24 was driven by some exceptional

factors, which will reverse this year, dragging down growth. We believe that real

GDP growth could stay in the range of 5.7-6.2% in the remaining three quarters

of FY25 (with 6.0-6.3% real GVA growth), implying full-year real GDP growth of

6.1% in FY25 (revised down from 6.5% earlier) vs. 8.2% in FY24.

2) While we expect slower growth, CPI-inflation is likely to be ~4.5% in FY25, in line

with the RBI’s projections and the market consensus. With sub-6% GDP growth

and expected inflation of 4.7% in 2HFY25, rate cuts are more likely to occur in

Feb’25, rather than Dec’24.

3) We have lowered our CAD forecasts to 0.8%/0.6% of GDP in FY25/FY26, lower

than previous projections, and similar to that in FY24. Lower gold imports,

sustained surplus in the services sector and slower GDP growth drive the

downward revisions. Accordingly, we expect INR to remain range-bound around

84 against USD in FY25, assuming no global shock. The RBI will continue to

increase forex reserves – likely to rise to USD700b by FY25 end.

1. Real GDP growth could decelerate to sub-6% in 2HFY25

For the first time in five quarters, India’s real GDP grew slower than expected. After

clocking 8.2% growth in FY24, real GDP increased by 6.7% YoY in

1QFY25,

compared

to the RBI’s projection of 7.1%. As

discussed

in a separate note, some exceptional

factors were responsible for the outperformance in FY24, many of which will reverse

their trajectory in FY25.

According to our in-house monthly estimates,

India’s Economic Activity Index (EAI)

decelerated to a 21-month low of 5.7% YoY in Jul’24, confirming further weakness in

2QFY25

(Exhibit 2).

A look at the limited available high-frequency data for Aug’24

suggests that India's growth momentum remained subdued, which makes us believe

that real GVA/GDP growth could soften further to 6.0-6.5% YoY in 2QFY25, much

lower than the RBI’s forecast of 7.2%

(Exhibit 3).

Three key themes:

India’s Economic Activity

Index decelerated to a 21-

month low of 5.7% YoY in

Jul’24, confirming further

weakness in 2QFY25.

Exhibit 2:

Our monthly dashboard suggests a 21-month

weakest growth in Jul’24…

% YoY

7.9

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

6.6 7.4 5.7

Apr-24

Jul-24

3MMA

EAI-GVA

Exhibit 3:

…which makes us believe that real GDP growth

could be much lower than the consensus in FY25

Real GDP growth forecasts (% YoY)

7.2

RBI

7.3

6.9

6.2

5.7

BMBG consensus

7.2

6.7

6.8

MOSL

7.2

6.8

6.1

2QFY25F

3QFY25F

4QFY25F

1QFY26F

*Based on RBI’s SPF

Bloomberg (BMBG) consensus forecasts taken on 17

Sep’24

Source: CSO, MOFSL

18 September 2024

In our

previous QEO update,

we had highlighted several reasons of downgrading

our FY25 real GDP growth forecasts to 6.5%, compared to the market consensus

(and RBI’s projection) of about 7%. After 1Q data, we have further lowered our FY25

growth forecast of 6.1%. Some key changes are discussed below, along with a few

forecasts that remain unchanged.

Although real GDP growth

forecast is lowered, we have

actually raised our FY25 real

GVA growth forecast.

1) Although real GDP growth forecast is downgraded, we have actually raised our

FY25 real GVA growth forecast to 6.3% for FY25 from 6% earlier

(Exhibit 4).

Better-

than-expected growth of 6.8% YoY in 1QFY25 vs. our forecast of 6.3%, led by

public administration, defense and other services (PADOS), is the primary reason

for the upgrade in GVA growth. This means that we have downgraded our

forecast of real net indirect taxes (NIT) to just 3.4% for FY25 (4.1% YoY in 1Q).

2) Based on 1QFY25 data, we have raised our real personal final consumption

expenditure (PFCE) growth projections and cut our investment forecast for

FY25.

3) Further, we expect nominal GDP growth to pick up to 10% YoY in FY25, better

than 9.6% in FY24, but slower than 10.8% projected earlier. Slower projected

growth in nominal GVA (to 10.3% from 10.6% earlier) and NIT are responsible

for this downward revision

(Exhibit 5).

We have lowered our 2QFY25 GDP growth forecast to 6.2% (from 6.8% earlier) and

2HFY25 projections to 5.7% from 6.3% earlier. As explained above, the primary

cause of slower GDP growth is the downward shift in real NIT, as real GVA growth

forecasts have been upgraded. Within GVA, PADOS (which includes all other

services, including the informal sector such as education, health care and recreation

activities) grew by an unexpected 9.5% YoY in 1QFY25, which forced us to raise our

forecast to 8.4% for FY25 from 5.9% earlier. At the same time, we have raised our

growth forecasts of other services, while the industrial sector is revised down.

Exhibit 5:

Nominal GDP growth is also lowered to 10% YoY

in FY25

Nominal GDP growth (% YoY)

18.9

10.5 11.5 11.3 10.6

6.4

14.2

9.6 10.0 10.6

We have trimmed our

2QFY25 GDP growth

forecast to 6.2% (from 6.8%

earlier) and 2HFY25

projections to 5.7% from

6.3% earlier.

Exhibit 4:

Downgraded GDP growth projections, upgraded

GVA growth for FY25

Real GDP/GVA growth projections (% YoY)

Jun'24

Sep'24

Jun'24

Sep'24

GDP

GVA

-1.2

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25 2QFY25F 3QFY25F 4QFY25F

F = MOFSL forecasts

FY16

FY18

FY20

FY22

FY24

FY26F

Source: RBI, CSO, IMF, MOFSL

Overall, in stark contrast to FY24, we believe that real GDP growth would disappoint

in FY25. As against the market consensus of 6.8% and the RBI’s projection of 7.2%

(which may be downgraded in its next monetary policy early next month), we expect

it to be 6.1% this year vs. 8.2% in FY24.

18 September 2024

After staying around 5% YoY

during the first six months

of CY24, the headline CPI-

inflation eased to an

average of 3.6% in the last

two months.

2. Headline inflation expected to stay contained in FY25

After staying around 5% YoY during the first six months of CY24, the headline CPI-

inflation eased to an average of 3.6% in the last two months (Jul-Aug’24). This

compares with an average inflation of 5.4% in 1HCY23 and then 7.1% in Jul-Aug’23.

It is, thus, fair to conclude that the base effect has played an important role in

driving headline inflation below 4% in the recent two months

(Exhibit 6).

There were

some notable developments:

1) The primary driver of slower headline inflation was food items, which saw a

sharp drop in inflation from an average of 8.8% in the 12-moths to Jun’24 to an

average of 5.5% in Jul-Aug’24

(Exhibit 7).

2) Core inflation (excluding food & beverages and fuel & light), on the other hand,

inched up to 3.3% YoY each in Jul’24 and Aug’24, compared to a record low of

3.0% YoY each in May’24 and Jun’24

(Exhibit 7).

3) Services inflation (23% weight) has also risen to 3.3-3.4% in the last two months,

higher than the average of 2.9% in 1HCY24. It is largely driven by core services

(135 weight, excluding housing), which posted a 13-month high inflation of 3.9%

YoY in Aug’24.

4) Inflation in goods basket (77% weight) dropped to below 4% for the first time in

almost five years, driving the entire fall in headline inflation. CPI inflation,

excluding veggies, eased to a 58-month low of 3.1% YoY in Aug’24, from as high

as 5.5% a year ago.

Exhibit 7:

…led by a sharp drop in food inflation, though

core inflation inched up

(% YoY)

Food inflation

Core CPI#

Exhibit 6:

Base effect has helped pull headline inflation to

below 4% in the recent two months…

Headline CPI inflation (% YoY)

May-23

Aug-23

Nov-23

Feb-24

May-24

Aug-24

Aug-22

Feb-23

Aug-23

Feb-24

Aug-24

#Excluding food & beverages and fuel & light

Source: CSO, MOFSL

We expect headline

inflation to remain range

bound over the next six

months, averaging 4.7% in

2HFY25, almost similar to

4.5% in 1HFY25.

Overall, while headline inflation softened dramatically in the last two months, it was

largely led by the base effect. Core inflation has likely bottomed out, which is

expected to continue to rise in the coming months/quarters.

Going forward, we expect headline inflation to move toward 4.5% YoY in Sep’24,

implying 4.0% YoY inflation in 2QFY25. It is likely to remain range bound over the

next six months, averaging 4.7% in 2HFY25, almost similar to 4.5% in 1HFY25, but

much higher than an average of 3.6% in Jul-Aug’24.

A comparison of our forecasts with those of the RBI’s projections and the market

consensus (based on Bloomberg) confirms that there are no major differences in

quarterly forecasts

(Exhibit 8).

Unlike growth, where we believe that the RBI (and

the market consensus) is very optimistic, headline inflation is expected almost

unanimously to rise back to 4.5% YoY in 2HFY25.

18 September 2024

Exhibit 8:

Headline CPI inflation is expected to move back

toward 4.5% in 2HFY25

Headline CPI-inflation forecasts (% YoY)

RBI

4.4

4.0 4.0

Consensus (BMBG)

MOSL

4.4 4.7

5.0

Exhibit 9:

Expect headline CPI inflation to average 4.6% and

WPI at 3.2% in FY25

(% YoY)

13.0

9.4

5.5

6.6

5.4

4.6

3.2

5.2

4.1

CPI

WPI

4.7 4.7 4.6

4.7

4.3 4.6

-0.7

2QFY25F

3QFY25F

4QFY25F

1QFY26F

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25F

FY26F

Bloomberg (BMBG) consensus forecast taken on 17

Sep’24

F = MOFSL forecasts

Source: RBI, MOFSL

Although it is extremely difficult to predict food inflation, a normal monsoon could

help it soften in FY25. Accordingly, we believe food inflation will ease to 6.4% in

2HFY25 compared to 7.6% in the first five months (Apr-Aug’24). If so, it would mean

that an average food inflation of 5.5% in Jul-Aug’24 was exceptional and that food

inflation could average 7% in the full-year FY25, only slightly lower than 7.5% in

FY24.

At the same time, the wholesale price index (WPI) has averaged 2.1% in the first five

months of FY25, which we expect to rise to 4.0% in 2HFY25. Accordingly, we project

WPI to move toward 3.2% YoY in FY25, after declining 0.7% YoY in FY24

(Exhibit 9).

We have lowered our WPI projections – from 3.8% projected earlier – based on the

recent data.

We believe that rate cuts in

India could be pushed

further to early CY25.

Overall, although headline inflation has eased to 3.6% YoY in the last two months, it

is clear that this is unlikely to sustain at those levels. We expect headline inflation to

move toward 4.5% in 2HFY25, implying that full-year inflation would also be around

that level. If so, we do not think that inflation would provide sufficient comfort to

the RBI to cut policy rates. At the same time, while the US Federal Reserve is

expected to cut this week (and many other major central banks have already cut),

the RBI is likely to be driven by domestic fundamentals.

We believe that the focus will shift toward GDP growth in 2HFY25, as a 7% growth

forecast look very optimistic, forcing various agencies (including the RBI) to

downgrade it. If so, the market participants will start asking for rate cuts due to

weak GDP growth. Thus, we do not expect any rate cut in the Oct’24 monetary

policy meeting. Considering that the next GDP data will be released at Nov’24 end

and the monetary policy meeting will be in early Dec’24, the RBI may choose to

postpone the first rate cut to Feb’25, even if the growth is closer to our estimates

(vis-à-vis market consensus). GDP growth closer to the RBI projections or market

consensus also means a delay in rate cuts. It will also be interesting to watch if US

economic growth shows any definite signs of a slowdown, which my force the US

Fed to loosen monetary policy more than what is currently anticipated.

18 September 2024

3. Low gold imports to keep CAD contained, INR range-bound in FY25

One of the many notable features of FY24 was a massive narrowing of CAD. From

2.0% of GDP in FY23, India’s CAD narrowed to only 0.7% of GDP last year, almost

one-third of the expected 2.0% of GDP for FY24 in Mar’23 (Survey of professional

forecasters on macroeconomic indicators – 81

round). Further details suggest that

both merchandise exports/imports contracted faster than expected last year (down

3.2%/5.2% vs. the median forecast of a decline of 2.3%/3.8%). And this happened

when real GDP growth surprised massively on the upside – 8.2% in FY24 vs. the

median forecast of 6%. Rarely have we seen this combination of narrowing CAD and

expanding growth. What about FY25?

Based on recent trade data,

we have lowered our CAD

forecast to 0.8% of GDP,

almost similar to that of

FY24.

Well, so far, it seems to be the reverse of FY24. While the median forecast of GDP

growth is 7% (as of the recent 89

round conducted during Jul’24, better than 6.7%

as per 87

round conducted in Mar’24), down from 8.2% in FY24, India’s CAD is

expected to widen to 1.0% of GDP (vs. 1.2% of GDP projected in Mar’24) from 0.7%

of GDP. In our

previous QEO,

we had also predicted a CAD of 1.2% of GDP, along

with real GDP growth of 6.5%. However, based on recent trade data, we have cut

our CAD forecast to 0.8% of GDP, almost similar to that of FY24. Lower gold imports

and continued strength in services explain a large part of our downward revision

(Exhibits 10 and 11).

Given below are the details:



Our oil & gas team have downgraded their crude oil price, which is now

expected to average USD78.5/barrel in FY25, down from USD81.2/barrel

projected earlier and USD82.4/barrel in FY24. A cut of 3.5% in crude oil prices

suggests a narrowing of CAD by 0.15% of GDP (as a thumb

rule,

a 10%

reduction in crude oil prices narrow CAD by 0.43 percent point of GDP).

However, oil imports in the first five months have been slightly higher than our

forecasts, as they have increased by 9.1% YoY. Overall, thus, we have kept our

projections of trade deficit on petroleum products broadly unchanged at

USD103b (or 2.6% of GDP).

On the other hand, notwithstanding all-time high gold imports of USD10.1b in

Aug’24, we have revised down our full-year forecasts. This is because of much

lower gold imports during Apr-Jul’24 and we hope that Aug’24 was exceptional.

A sharp rise in gold prices has pushed gold imports higher by 25.2% YoY in Apr-

Aug’24 vs. a growth of 10.5% during the corresponding period last year. It is,

however, almost entirely driven by prices, as volumes grew only ~2%. Because

of this, we revise down our deficit on ‘valuables’ to USD41.0b (or 1.0% of GDP),

compared to our earlier projection of USD46b (or 1.2% of GDP) and USD49b (or

1.4% of GDP) in FY24.

Another reduction of about 0.1% of GDP accrues to the services account, which

continues to post strong surpluses in FY25. In the first four months of FY25,

services exports have increased by a strong 12% (vs. 6.4% growth in the

corresponding period last year), while the import of services grew by 8.6%

during the period (vs. stagnant during the corresponding period last year),

helping to expand the monthly services’ surplus to USD13.8b in FY25 vs.

USD11.9b during Apr-Jul’23. Thus, we expect the surplus on the invisibles

account to be 5.8% of GDP in FY25 (vs. 6.1% of GDP in FY24), slightly better

than 5.7% projected earlier.

18 September 2024



Lastly, with some downward revision in GDP growth, we have trimmed our

forecast of non-oil non-valuables (NONV) trade deficit, amounting to another

0.1% of GDP. With an expected growth of 2.4% in NONV exports and 6.2% in

NONV imports, NONV deficit could widen to 2.9% of GDP in FY25, from 2.6% of

GDP in FY24.

Exhibit 11:

…however, trade deficit, as % of GDP, is expected

to narrow this year

4.4

3.5

FY25F

-3

-8

FY26F

Goods ex Oil & Val

Oil

Valuables

Invisibles

Exhibit 10:

We expect merchandise imports to grow faster

than exports in FY25, partly led by base effect…

(% YoY)

-22

-5.1

-7.3

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

-3.1

-5.3

FY24

3.4

Exports

Imports

(% of GDP)

4.7

3.2

-3.1

-0.4

FY20

4.7

4.3

-2.1

-0.5

FY21

4.8

3.2

-3.0

-1.3

FY22

5.9

2.4

-3.3

-1.0

FY23

6.1

3.4

-2.8

-1.4

FY24

5.7

3.2

-2.6

-1.0

FY25F

5.6

3.0

-2.3

-1.0

FY26F

F = MOFSL forecasts

Source: RBI, MOFSL

With such favorable

balance of payments (BOP)

position, we expect INR to

remain range-bound at

around 84 per USD in FY25,

in the absence of any global

shock

With CAD remaining under 1% of GDP, we expect the RBI to add foreign exchange

reserves to the tune of USD52.5b in FY25, taking total foreign exchange reserves to

close to USD700b by Mar’25, from USD646b as of Mar’24 end. It had already

reached USD689b as of 6

Sep’24.

With such a favorable balance of payments (BOP) position, we expect INR to remain

range-bound at around 84 per USD in FY25 in the absence of any global shock.

18 September 2024

Detailed economic projections

Exhibit 12:

Detailed projections of economic growth

Macro indicators

Nominal variables

Gross domestic product at market prices (GDP

)

GDP

Private consumption expenditure (PCE)

Government consumption expenditure (GCE)

Gross capital formation (GCF)

GFCF + change in stocks

Exports of goods and services

Less:

Imports of goods and services

Gross Value Added at basic prices (GVA

)

Agriculture and allied activities

Industry

Manufacturing

Construction

Services

Real variables

Real GDP

PCE

GCE

GCF

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)

Exports of goods and services

Less:

Imports of goods and services

Real GVA

Agriculture and allied activities

Industry

Manufacturing

Construction

Services

Community services, etc.

Non-agriculture GVA

Non-agriculture non-community GVA

Other real sector

Index of industrial production (IIP)

Nominal personal disposable income (PDI)

Real PDI

Incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR)

YoY (%)

(0.8)

7.7

3.6

(8.5)

2.5

(2.0)

11.4

13.8

7.2

5.3

13.3

5.9

9.2

4.7

5.8

10.3

5.6

5.8

11.0

5.9

YoY (%)

3.9

5.2

3.9

(2.6)

(2.1)

(3.4)

(0.8)

3.9

6.2

(1.4)

(3.0)

1.6

6.4

6.6

3.6

3.0

(5.8)

(5.3)

(0.8)

(7.4)

(8.7)

(7.0)

(12.6)

(4.1)

4.0

(0.4)

3.1

(4.6)

(8.4)

(7.6)

(5.6)

(5.2)

9.7

11.7

0.0

21.1

20.6

29.6

22.1

9.4

4.6

12.2

10.0

19.9

9.2

7.5

10.3

10.8

7.0

6.8

9.0

5.5

6.9

13.4

10.6

6.7

4.7

2.1

(2.2)

9.4

10.0

8.9

7.1

6.7

8.2

4.0

2.5

9.4

8.9

2.6

10.9

7.2

1.4

9.5

9.9

7.6

7.8

8.3

6.1

5.4

4.2

6.5

6.9

1.8

6.3

4.1

5.9

5.8

5.6

7.1

8.4

6.7

6.4

6.3

5.8

3.0

7.1

7.2

1.8

0.6

6.1

4.3

5.7

6.1

5.4

6.7

6.8

6.4

6.3

USD b

YoY (%)

% of GDP

YoY (%)

% of GDP

2,836

6.4

60.9

11.0

30.1

29.1

18.7

21.2

7.0

18.3

26.9

14.7

7.5

54.8

2,675

(1.2)

61.1

11.6

28.9

27.5

18.7

19.1

(0.9)

20.4

27.4

15.4

7.5

52.3

3,167

18.9

61.0

10.5

32.1

30.5

21.4

24.0

18.8

18.9

28.9

15.7

8.5

52.2

3,353

14.2

60.9

10.7

33.0

31.8

23.2

26.8

14.0

18.2

27.6

14.3

8.8

54.2

3,568

9.6

60.3

10.4

33.3

31.8

21.8

24.1

8.5

17.7

27.6

14.3

8.9

54.7

3,865

10.0

60.4

10.2

33.3

31.9

21.3

23.4

10.3

17.8

27.1

14.0

8.8

55.1

4,232

10.6

60.5

10.0

33.5

32.2

20.5

22.4

10.6

17.6

26.8

13.9

8.7

55.5

Unit

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25F

FY26F

unit

8.93

(5.74)

3.57

5.16

4.42

6.00

5.80

Industry includes mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, and construction;

Nominal PDI deflated by PCE deflator;

The ratio for last two years’ investments (as a percentage of GDP) and GDP growth

–

it is calculated using real-term data

Source: RBI, CSO, CEIC, MOFSL

18 September 2024

Exhibit 13:

Detailed projections of prices, rates, and money & banking

Macro indicators

Price measures

GVA

deflator

GDP

deflator

PCE deflator

Consumer price index (CPI)

Food and beverages

Fuel and light

Core CPI

Wholesale price index (WPI)

Primary articles

Fuel and power

Manufactured products

Non-food manufactured products

Food items (raw + processed)

Money and banking (end-period)

Reserve money (M0)

Broad money supply (M3)

Bank deposit

Bank credit

Credit-to-deposit ratio

Incremental credit-to-deposit ratio

Key rates

Policy repo rate (end-period)

USD:INR (period-average)

Crude oil price (period-average)

Gold price (period-average)

% p.a.

unit

USD/bbl

USD/ounc

CPI

Unit

YoY (%)

FY20

3.0

2.4

3.9

4.8

6.0

1.3

4.0

1.7

6.8

(1.8)

0.3

(0.4)

6.9

10.2

8.9

7.9

6.1

76.4

60.3

4.40

70.9

60.7

FY21

3.2

4.6

4.4

6.2

7.3

2.7

5.3

1.3

1.7

(8.0)

2.7

2.2

4.0

13.7

12.2

11.4

5.6

72.4

37.4

4.00

74.2

44.6

FY22

8.6

8.4

6.2

5.5

4.2

11.3

6.1

13.0

10.3

32.6

11.1

11.0

6.7

12.4

8.8

8.9

8.6

72.2

69.7

4.00

74.5

78.9

FY23

7.0

7.1

6.6

6.7

10.3

6.3

9.4

10.0

28.1

5.6

5.8

6.3

10.0

9.0

9.6

15.0

75.8

113.0

6.50

80.4

93.7

FY24

1.2

1.3

4.3

5.4

7.0

1.2

4.4

(0.7)

3.5

(4.7)

(1.7)

(1.4)

3.2

8.5

11.1

12.6

19.2

79.5

114.8

6.50

82.8

82.4

FY25F

3.7

3.6

4.5

6.4

(2.5)

3.7

3.2

7.3

(0.3)

2.1

1.7

8.0

9.8

9.6

10.9

10.0

78.9

73.0

6.25

84.0

78.5

FY26F

4.3

4.1

4.8

5.0

5.8

5.4

4.6

4.1

5.3

4.2

3.5

3.2

5.5

10.2

10.5

10.6

12.0

79.9

89.3

5.50

84.9

75.0

1,462

1,823

1,819

1,804

1,989

2,373

2,243

excluding ‘food and beverages’, ‘pan, tobacco, and intoxicants’, and ‘fuel and light’

Source: RBI, CSO, CEIC, MOFSL

18 September 2024

Exhibit 14:

Detailed projections of the external sector

Macro indicators

Current account balance

Merchandise

Invisibles

Total credit

Merchandise

Petroleum products

Valuables

Invisibles

Services

Total debit

Merchandise

Petroleum products

Valuables

Invisibles

Services

Capital and Financial account

Foreign direct investment (FDI)

Foreign portfolio investment (FPI)

Financial derivatives

Other investment

Non-resident Indians (NRI) deposits

Change in forex reserves

Current account balance (CAB)

Non-oil

Non-oil non-valuables

Forex reserves

Savings

–

Investments

National savings

Households

Net financial savings

Physical savings

Corporate sector

General government

Domestic investments

Households

Corporate sector

General government

% of GDP

29.6

19.1

7.7

11.4

13.2

(2.8)

30.4

11.2

14.3

3.6

29.1

22.7

11.7

11.0

13.1

(6.7)

28.2

10.8

12.9

3.9

31.2

20.1

7.3

12.8

14.1

(3.0)

32.4

12.6

14.1

30.2

18.4

5.3

13.2

14.1

(2.3)

32.2

12.9

14.8

32.3

18.7

5.5

13.2

15.0

(1.4)

33.0

13.0

14.2

32.2

18.7

5.7

13.0

14.5

(0.9)

33.0

12.8

14.2

32.5

18.9

6.2

12.7

14.3

(0.7)

33.1

12.5

14.7

Unit

USD b

% of GDP

FY20

(24.6)

(157.5)

133.0

642.1

320.4

41.9

43.3

321.7

213.2

666.7

477.9

129.9

53.4

188.8

128.3

84.2

43.0

1.4

4.1

35.7

8.6

(59.6)

(0.9)

2.2

4.1

(2.1)

FY21

24.0

(102.2)

126.2

603.5

296.3

25.6

41.5

307.2

206.1

579.5

398.5

82.4

54.3

181.1

117.5

64.7

44.0

36.1

(4.8)

(10.6)

7.4

(88.7)

0.9

3.0

5.0

(3.3)

FY22

(38.7)

(189.5)

150.8

798.7

429.2

67.5

40.2

369.6

254.5

837.4

618.6

161.8

80.4

218.8

147.0

85.9

38.6

(16.8)

(6.4)

70.5

3.2

(47.2)

(1.2)

1.8

4.3

(1.5)

FY23

(67.0)

(265.3)

198.3

921.9

456.1

97.5

35.8

465.8

325.3

988.8

721.4

209.4

71.0

267.5

182.0

59.0

28.0

(5.2)

(5.4)

41.5

9.0

8.0

(2.0)

1.3

3.5

0.2

FY24

(23.2)

(242.1)

218.9

942.9

441.5

84.0

25.8

501.4

341.1

966.1

683.5

182.2

74.8

282.6

178.3

86.3

9.8

44.1

(7.9)

40.3

14.7

(63.1)

(0.7)

2.1

3.5

(1.8)

FY25F

(32.4)

(257.1)

224.8

983.1

456.8

78.9

38.3

526.2

369.2

1,015.5

714.0

181.6

79.3

301.5

197.0

84.9

20.9

22.6

0.0

41.3

14.5

(52.5)

(0.8)

1.8

2.9

(1.4)

FY26F

(26.0)

(265.5)

239.5

1,030.7

472.4

79.6

37.6

558.3

394.3

1,056.7

737.9

179.8

81.3

318.8

210.8

92.0

24.0

20.0

0.0

48.0

15.0

(66.0)

(0.6)

1.8

2.8

(1.6)

Valuables

3.8

4.1

4.7

4.9

5.0

include items related to gold or any other precious metal

Source: RBI, CSO, CMIE, MOFSL

18 September 2024

Exhibit 15:

Detailed projections of central government finances

Macro indicators

Total receipts

Unit

INR b

YoY %

% of GDP

Revenue receipts

Gross taxes

Net tax collection

Direct tax receipts

Indirect tax receipts

Non-tax collection

Non-tax receipts

Non-debt capital receipts

Disinvestment

Total expenditure

INR b

YoY (%)

INR b

YoY (%)

INR b

YoY (%)

INR b

YoY (%)

INR b

YoY (%)

% of GDP

Primary spending^

Revenue spending

Interest payments

Subsidies

Defense

Pensions

Capital spending

Defense

Railways

Roads and Highways

Fiscal balance

INR b

YoY (%)

INR b

YoY (%)

INR b

YoY (%)

INR b

FY21

16,897

(3.4)

8.5

16,321

(2.9)

20,249

14,240

5.2

9,264

(10.7)

10,984

13.2

2,657

2,081

576

329

35,098

30.7

17.7

20,718

14.3

30,835

31.2

6,799

7,582

2,057

2,085

4,263

27.0

1,343

299

923

(18,201)

FY22

22,093

30.7

9.4

21,699

33.0

27,093

18,048

26.7

14,083

52.0

13,010

18.4

4,045

3,651

394

146

37,938

8.1

16.1

24,844

19.9

32,009

3.8

8,055

5,039

2,286

1,989

5,929

39.1

1,380

1,173

1,168

(15,845)

(6.7)

FY23

24,549

11.1

9.1

23,828

9.8

30,537

20,973

16.2

16,575

17.7

13,963

7.3

3,576

2,854

722

460

41,932

10.5

15.6

26,867

8.1

34,531

7.9

9,285

5,779

2,562

2,416

7,400

24.8

1,429

1,593

2,060

(17,382)

(6.4)

FY24

27,889

13.6

9.4

27,284

14.5

34,648

23,265

10.9

19,220

16.0

15,428

10.5

4,623

4,019

605

331

44,425

5.9

15.0

29,651

10.4

34,940

1.2

10,639

4,135

2,904

2,168

9,485

28.2

1,543

2,426

2,639

(16,537)

FY25BE

32,072

16.4

9.8

31,292

15.9

38,402

25,835

11.2

22,070

13.5

16,332

9.4

6,237

5,457

780

500

48,205

7.3

14.8

32,292

7.8

37,094

4.8

11,629

4,284

2,828

2,433

11,111

16.9

1,720

2,520

2,722

(16,133)

FY25F

32,509

16.6

10.0

31,909

17.0

39,268

26,409

13.5

22,153

15.3

17,115

10.9

6,100

5,500

600

400

48,564

9.3

15.0

32,650

10.1

38,064

8.9

11,629

4,284

2,828

2,433

10,500

10.7

1,720

2,520

2,722

(16,055)

FY26F

34,932

7.5

9.7

34,132

7.0

43,733

29,632

12.2

24,711

11.5

19,021

11.1

5,300

4,500

800

600

50,946

4.9

14.2

33,870

3.7

39,396

3.5

12,792

4,284

3,111

2,676

11,550

10.0

1,926

2,722

2,940

(16,014)

% of GDP

(9.2)

^Primary spending = Total spending less interest and subsidies

(5.6)

(4.9)

(4.5)

Source: Union Budget documents, CSO, MOFSL

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing

18 September 2024

NOTES

18 September 2024

Investment Rating

Expected return (over 12-month)

BUY

>=15%

SELL

< - 10%

NEUTRAL

< - 10 % to 15%

UNDER REVIEW

Rating may undergo a change

NOT RATED

We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation

*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following

30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

Disclosures

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations,

is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in

respect of which are available on www.motilaloswal.com. MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is

a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National

Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National Securities Depository

Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance Regulatory & Development

Authority of India (IRDA) as Corporate Agent for insurance products.

Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at

http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/List%20of%20Associate%20companies.pdf

MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell

the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a

market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of

interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the

analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in

some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.

MOFSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware

that MOFSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment

banking or brokerage service transactions. Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at

https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx

A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at

www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com.

Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and

Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOFSL research activity

and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to Subject Company for which Research Team have expressed their views.

Regional Disclosures (outside India)

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use

would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.

For Hong Kong:

This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities

and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal

Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg. No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Hong Kong. This report

is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to

professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer

or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.

For U.S.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state

laws in the United States. In addition MOFSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934

Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by

MOFSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as

defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on

by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in

only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and

interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a

chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be

executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.

The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered

broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading

securities held by a research analyst account.

For Singapore

In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co. Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets services

license and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore. Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this

report/publication/communication. This report is distributed solely to persons who qualify as “Institutional Investors”, of which some of whom may consist of "accredited" institutional investors as

defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act of Singapore .Accordingly, if a Singapore person is not, or ceases to be, such an investor, they must immediately discontinue any use

of this Report and inform MOCMSPL .

Specific Disclosures

1 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives does not have financial interest in the subject company, as they do not have equity holdings in the subject company.

2 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company

3 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives have not received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months

4 MOFSL, Research Analyst and/or his relatives do not have material conflict of interest in the subject company at the time of publication of research report

5 Research Analyst has not served as director/officer/employee in the subject company

6 MOFSL has not acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months

7 MOFSL has not received compensation for investment banking/ merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months

8 MOFSL has not received compensation for other than investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months

9 MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report

10 MOFSL has not engaged in market making activity for the subject company

********************************************************************************************************************************

The associates of MOFSL may have:

financial interest in the subject company

actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report or date of the

public appearance.

received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months

any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific

recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might

exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.

acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months

18 September 2024

be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed

herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)

received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.

Served subject company as its clients during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.

The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report

Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider

demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not

considered in above disclosures.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research

analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.

Terms & Conditions:

This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be

altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOFSL. The report is

based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from

publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made

as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not

constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers

simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.

Disclaimer:

The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or

in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be

used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal,

accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this

report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This

may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at

an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to

determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures,

options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied,

is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is

provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The

Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and

the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform

or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a

separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is

already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the

views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or

published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any

locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or

licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose

possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be

liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.

The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not

to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses,

costs, damages,

expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.

This report is meant for the clients of Motilal Oswal only.

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263;

www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of

Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-40548085.

Grievance Redressal Cell:

Contact Person

Contact No.

Email ID

Ms. Hemangi Date

022 40548000 / 022 67490600

query@motilaloswal.com

Ms. Kumud Upadhyay

022 40548082

servicehead@motilaloswal.com

Mr. Ajay Menon

022 40548083

am@motilaloswal.com

Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:

INH000000412 . AMFI: ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs

and IPO products.

Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

(MOFSL) write to grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.

18 September 2024