Sector Update | 12 December 2024
Cement
All-India average cement price down
12% YoY (flat MoM) in Nov’24
Demand set to rise, yet pricing remains competitive in 2H
Industry volume up 3-5% YoY in Oct-Nov’24
Average imported petcoke price down
27% YoY (up 3% MoM) at USD96/t in
Nov’24
Average imported coal price down 1%
YoY/MoM to USD111/t in Nov’24
As per our channel checks, industry volume is estimated to have grown 3-5% YoY
in Oct-Nov’24 (down 10-11% in Oct’24; up 20-22% YoY in Nov’24). Celebration of
Durga Puja and Diwali in Oct’24 vs. Diwali in Nov’23 led to a higher decline in
Oct’24, followed by strong growth in Nov’24. There are signs of recovery in
cement demand after the festive seasons, and we estimate industry volume
growth of ~8-9% YoY in 2HFY25, driven by pent-up demand, an expected rebound
in government spending and robust demand in the real estate and housing
sectors.
Average cement price largely remained flat MoM in Nov’24. Prices have moved
up ~1% in the North region and Madhya Pradesh, while they have declined ~1%
in the South region. Prices remained flat in East, West, and Uttar Pradesh. The
all-India average cement price in Oct-Nov’24 was up ~1% compared to 2QFY25
average. Cement dealers indicated that industry players increased billing prices
in the range of INR10-30/bag across regions in Dec’24. Nevertheless, the
sustainability needs to be watched out for given higher competitive intensity.
We have analyzed the realization trends for the last 12 years (FY13-24) and
observed that average realization (for our coverage companies) during 2H
declined ~1% as compared to 1H. Most of the years, realization fell in the range of
~1-6%, with a few exceptions when realization remained flat in 2H compared to
1H. However, only in FY22, the realization was higher in 2H compared to 1H,
mainly due to the pass-on of the spike in fuel prices during the Russia-Ukraine war.
Given the historical trend, if competitive pricing were to continue in 2HFY25, this
may pose a risk to our FY25 earnings estimates.
Imported petcoke prices increased ~3-5% MoM in Nov’24, whereas imported coal
prices (South African) remained range-bound. At the spot price, imported petcoke
consumption costs stood at INR1.20/Kcal, while imported coal (South African)
costs stood at INR1.65/kcal. Based on the prevailing fuel prices, we estimate
cement spread to improve (due to lower fuel price) up to INR25-30/t in 2HFY25
over 1HFY25.
Estimate volume growth of 8-9% YoY in 2H
After a sluggish industry volume growth of ~1-2% YoY in 1HFY25, cement demand
picked up to 3-5% YoY in Oct-Nov’24. Cement volume declined by 10-11% YoY in
Oct’24, impacted by a high base of last year, festivals and unseasonal rains in a few
parts of the country. A favorable base led to strong growth of 20-22% YoY in Nov’24.
After a 12.7% YoY contraction in government capex in 1HFY25 (central government
capex down 13.5% YoY and state government capex down 11.5% YoY). Govt capex is
expected to pick up in 2HFY25. This should lead to improvement in cement demand,
and we estimate volume growth of ~8-9% YoY in 2HFY25. We also expect FY26E to
start on a strong note in terms of cement demand as Mar-Jun’25 is the strongest
period for cement consumption.
Sanjeev Kumar Singh - Research analyst
(Sanjeev.Singh@MotilalOswal.com)
Mudit Agarwal - Research analyst
(Mudit.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
MotilalOswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.