December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Technology
Technology
Result Preview
Setting the stage for a CY25 revival
Expect a shift in demand sentiment despite short-term pain from furloughs
After a decent 2Q, we expect seasonal furloughs to weigh on growth for the
sector in 3QFY25. That said, looking beyond seasonality, macro uncertainty is
gradually easing and we expect the outlook for technology spending to improve
in CY25. While the initial phase of recovery in 1HFY25 was sluggish, we now see
clear signs of an acceleration. Recovery appears to be expanding beyond US
BFSI—which continues to strengthen—into additional industry verticals such as
Hi-Tech, which is recovering ahead of schedule. We expect tier-2 companies to
continue to outpace tier-1 firms in growth during the quarter. The most
important catalyst for the sector now would come after 3QFY25, when client
budgets for CY25 would be finalized and the magnitude of change in client
behavior would become clearer.
We expect QoQ constant currency revenue growth
of ~0.4%/1.0%/3.7% for
TCS/INFO/HCLT. Mid-tier companies should continue to do well; we expect
COFORGE/PSYS to grow by 4.9%/4.0%, whereas MPHL/CYL could show
0.2%/2.3% growth.
Cross-currency impact for the quarter:
On an average, we expect 50-80bp
cross-currency headwinds for our coverage on a sequential basis.
Guidance:
We believe that Cyient and LTTS might fall short of its FY25 revenue
guidance. Overall, we expect the guidance to remain unchanged.
We expect revenue growth of Tier-I companies to be in the range of -1.0% to
+3.7% QoQ CC. Revenue of Tier-II players is expected to grow to the tune of 0%
to ~5% QoQ in CC terms.
Furloughs and wage hikes to put pressure on margins in 3Q:
We expect margin
declines for INFO (seasonally weak 2H and furloughs) and LTIM (wage hike).
That said, growth leverage in 2H for select companies (COFORGE/LTTS/CYL) and
cost optimization benefits could help offset some of this impact. We believe a
more measured hiring approach in light of only gradual improvements in
demand, and a strong USD vs. INR should provide margin cushion in FY26.
Among Tier-I players, we prefer
LTIM
as we believe its vertical exposures in BFSI
and Hi-tech, as well as its service line exposures in data, ERP and modernization,
position it well for a recovery in client spends in FY26/FY27.
Among Tier-II players, our top pick is
COFORGE.
Coforge’s strong offerings in BFS
and insurance should enable it to participate in the demand recovery, and a
strong TCV also indicates a robust near-term growth outlook. We believe
COFORGE’s organic business is in great shape and early cross-selling initiatives
between COFORGE and Cigniti indicate that COFORGE could engineer a growth
turnaround at Cigniti earlier than expected.
We now roll over to FY27E EPS (earlier Sep’26E EPS) to determine the target
prices for our coverage companies.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
December 2024
1
Abhishek Pathak - Research analyst
(Abhishek.Pathak@MotilalOswal.com)
Research analyst: Keval Bhagat
(Keval.Bhagat@MotilalOswal.com) /
Tushar Dhonde
(Tushar Dhonde@MotilalOswal.com)