December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Non Lending
Financials – Non Lending
Result Preview
Regulations and weak markets to impact performance
Profitability trend to be muted sequentially
Company
HDFC AMC
ABSL AMC
Nippon AMC
UTI AMC
Angel One
BSE
MCX
360 One
Nuvama Wealth
Anand Rathi Wealth
Prudent Corp
CAMS
Kfintech
CDSL
Star Health
ICICI Lombard
HDFC Life
ICICI Prudential
SBI Life
Max Financial
Across segments, the regulatory environment is likely to influence the performance of
non-lending financials in 3QFY25. While F&O regulations are anticipated to have an
impact on BSE/ANGELONE, new surrender charges will affect LI players. GI players will
be impacted by the changes in the reporting of gross premiums for long-term policies.
Nifty for the quarter was down 8.4%, which will impact AUM growth for AMCs/CAMS/
KFin. However, SIP flows have held up strong in Oct’24/Nov’24 at more than INR250b.
Yields are likely to be stable given the limited impact of telescopic structure in
3QFY25. Most notably, other income will see a sharp fall due to market correction.
BSE’s premium turnover has been stable despite a sharp decline in notional turnover
due to F&O regulations. Additionally, the decline in notional turnover will aid margin
expansion as regulatory fees have a direct linkage. On the other hand, ANGELONE’s
order flow is expected to be weak during the quarter. Lower cash volumes will have an
adverse impact on CDSL’s transaction charges.
Wealth managers will incur an MTM hit from the market corrections, which would be
partially offset by the inflows. Transaction revenue would also be down sequentially.
LI players are seeing through the implementation of surrender charges wherein
product IRRs and commissions have been altered. VNB margins will be influenced by:
1) product mix – the share of ULIPs remained strong, 2) some benefits of non-par
repricing, and 3) the impact of surrender charges. For our coverage universe, we
expect a change of -40bp to +70bp sequentially.
GI players will face an impact from the implementation of the new practice of reporting
GWP on a 1/n basis for the long-term business. This will lead to a higher opex ratio,
driving up the combined ratio. The health segment’s loss ratios will also remain elevated.
We maintain our high conviction on the capital market plays as highlighted in our
recently released thematic report (click
here).
The current weak trends are transitory
and will reset the base for longer-term growth. Our top picks in this space are BSE,
ANGELONE, HDFCAMC, and Nuvama.
Insurance stocks have seen a sharp correction due to media articles on the regulator
constraining the role of the bancassurance channel (https://tinyurl.com/4y6zp26k). In
such a scenario, we expect LIC and IPRU to outperform, given their lower dependence
on the bancassurance channel.
Demat monthly run-rate declines; volumes dip after the new F&O regulations
Cash ADTO continued its MoM downward trajectory during the first two months
of 3QFY25 with declines of 12%/6% MoM in Oct’24/Nov’24. A slight recovery
was witnessed in Dec’24 with a 3% MoM growth in cash ADTO.
In the F&O segment, options volumes witnessed a significant decline after
partial implementation of the new F&O regulations in Nov’24, resulting in F&O
ADTO dipping 3.5%/14.8%/33.1% in Oct’24/Nov’24/Dec’24.
BSE’s market share in the options segment continues to scale up in terms of
notional/ premium turnover, reaching 29%/15% in Dec’24 vs. 27%/13% in
Sep’24.
Incremental demat account additions declined from 4.4m/month in 2QFY25 to
3.5m in Oct’24 and 3.2m in Nov’24. Similarly, incremental NSE active client
count has fallen to 1m/0.7m in Oct/Nov ’24 from an average of 1.2m in 2QFY25.
MCX has maintained its momentum with volumes remaining above INR50t in
Nov’24/ Dec’24. Futures ADTO increased to INR280b in 3QFY25 from INR270b in
Research Analyst: Prayesh Jain(Prayesh.Jain@MotilalOswal.com)
|
Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Kartikeya Mohata
(Kartikeya.Mohata@MotilalOswal.com) |
Muskan Chopra
(Muskan.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com)
October 2020
are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research
Investors
1
Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
2QFY25. On the other hand, Options ADTO rose to INR2.04t in 3QFY25 from
INR1.94t in 2QFY25.
For BSE, despite an 18% drop in notional ADTO, the premium ADTO for 3QFY25
increased to INR88b from INR82b in 2QFY25. This would drive revenue growth
while sequential EBITDA margin expansion of 330bp will be fueled by lower
regulatory and clearing & settlement costs.
We expect ANGELONE to report a revenue decline of 19% QoQ due to a 14%
QoQ dip in the number of orders and the impact of true-to-label charges. Lower
customer acquisitions, and consequently lower opex, will offset the impact
partially.
Mutual Funds: SIP inflows remain strong; equity inflows down from the peak
Mutual fund AUM grew 43%/40% YoY during Oct’24/Nov’24, driven by
57%/50% growth in equity AUM. While Oct’24 witnessed strong equity inflows
of INR587b, a slight slowdown was observed in Nov’24 (INR401b). SIP flows
scaled new heights and stood at INR253b for both Oct’24 and Nov’24.
The AUM of HDFC AMC/Nippon AMC/ABSL AMC/UTI AMC grew
44%/51%/24%/31% YoY at the end of Nov’24, reflecting market shares of
11.5%/8.3%/5.6%/5.2%.
Equity AUM’s share dipped ~70bp in Oct’24 and ~60bp in Nov’24, reaching
57.3%.
We expect AMCs to register strong revenue growth of 25-38% YoY, propelled by
healthy AUM growth. However, their profitability is likely to be hurt by a sharp
fall in other income owing to MTM hit on equity exposure in the investment
book.
CAMS and KFin are expected to register healthy revenue growth led by AUM
growth and continued momentum in non-MF businesses. Profitability should
remain healthy given scale benefits.
For wealth managers, we expect some hit because of MTM that will be offset by
inflows. For 360 One, scaling up in the loan book will also provide support to
earnings.
Life Insurance: Mixed performance likely; VNB margin to be stable QoQ
Private life insurance companies experienced 18%/44% growth in APE in
Oct’24/Nov’24. For Dec’24, we expect industry growth momentum to remain
stable.
The industry’s VNB margin would be influenced by: 1) product mix – share of
ULIPs remained strong, 2) some benefits of non-par repricing, and 3) the impact of
surrender charges. For our coverage universe, we expect a change of -40bp to
+70bp sequentially.
General Insurance: Accounting changes to affect expense ratios
Excluding crop, the general insurance sector witnessed GWP growth of 20%/3% in
Oct’24/ Nov’24. The health segment grew 47%/dipped 1% YoY in Oct’24/Nov’24
(+3% in 2QFY25). Retail health growth was impacted by the change in accounting
for long-term policies. The motor segment was hit by low automobile sales and
grew 13%/4% YoY in Oct’24/Nov’24 (+6% in 2QFY25).
For ICICIGI, premium growth in Oct’24/Nov’24 was below the industry average of
3%/-3% YoY. While the retail health segment grew in the high teens, weak motor
growth and a decline in the group health segment resulted in a tepid
performance.
For Oct’24/Nov’24, STARHEAL experienced a soft premium growth of 5%/8% YoY,
with retail growth of 6%/8% and group health decline of 12%/growth of 2%.
January 2025
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
While there is no change in operational efficiency of insurers, the change in
accounting for long-term health policies will result in elevated opex ratios. Loss
ratios are anticipated to remain elevated, especially in the health segment.
Variance Variance
Variance Variance
Dec’24
YoY (%) QoQ (%)
YoY (%) QoQ (%)
Operating Revenue (INR m)
EBITDA (INR m)
9,113
35.7
2.7
7,217
41.1
2.6
4,255
24.6
0.3
2,487
28.0
-0.7
5,855
38.3
2.5
3,860
48.9
3.1
3,776
30.2
1.2
1,825
60.4
-0.2
Operating Revenue (INR m)
PBT (INR m)
5,678
29.2
-3.5
2,705
30.1
-6.5
7,413
32.8
0.2
3,267
41.8
-6.2
2,522
38.2
4.0
1,094
37.0
5.1
2,922
39.2
2.2
700
40.0
1.9
Operating Revenue (INR m)
EBITDA (INR m)
8,437
22.7
-13.7
4,287
22.2
-25.1
7,589
104.2
1.7
4,204
356.5
8.1
3,180
66.1
11.4
2,036
NA
13.5
Operating Revenue (INR m)
EBITDA (INR m)
3,725
28.6
2.0
1,744
34.8
2.4
2,945
34.7
5.0
1,352
38.1
6.8
3,086
43.9
-4.2
1,886
43.5
-5.6
APE (INR m)
VNB (INR m)
38,685
21.2
0.3
9,671
13.0
3.1
25,975
36.2
3.7
5,974
37.0
2.0
Exhibit 1:
Quarterly performance
Sector
CMP
(INR)
Rating
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Dec’24
Dec’24
6,067
2,155
3,255
1,612
2,342
2,430
797
524
3,173
3,690
1,728
1,255
958
1,614
4,336
2,549
AMC
HDFC AMC
4,162
ABSL AMC
837
Nippon AMC
754
UTI AMC
1,366
Wealth Management
360 One
1,276
Nuvama
6,974
Anand Rathi
3,935
Prudent
2,726
Exchanges and Broking
Angel One
3,017
BSE
5,426
MCX
6,285
Intermediaries
CAMS
5,108
Kfintech
1,545
CDSL
1,809
Life Insurance
HDFC Life
617
IPru Life
661
SBI Life
1,401
Max Financial
1,101
General Insurance
Star Health
482
ICICI Lombard
1,808
Non-Lending
Variance
Variance
YoY (%)
QoQ (%)
Net Profit (INR m)
23.9
5.2
2.9
-11.1
14.6
-9.6
-20.7
-38.7
Net Profit (INR m)
20.7
-5.3
37.9
-5.8
37.3
4.5
46.7
1.7
Net Profit (INR m)
21.9
-25.1
251.8
6.7
NA
12.5
Net Profit (INR m)
41.8
3.9
43.3
7.2
50.1
-0.3
Net Profit (INR m)
18.8
0.2
12.0
1.3
66,252
8.1
22.9
20,685
15.2
-4.7
Gross Premium (INR m)
40,385
12.0
-7.6
66,297
3.0
-4.6
3,28,777
16.8
1.7
17,888
6.5
23.4
4,861
-0.6
-5.1
Underwriting Profit (INR m)
-564
NA
NA
-1,609
NA
NA
74,886
30.9
5.6
56.1
-5.1
4.1
12.8
Net Profit (INR m)
2,178
-24.8
95.7
6,344
47.0
-8.6
53,599
32.0
-3.0
5,022
1,572
Exhibit 2:
Changes to our EPS estimates (*For life insurance companies – absolute VNB in INR b)
Company
HDFC AMC
ABSL AMC
Nippon AMC
UTI AMC
360 One
Nuvama
Anand Rathi
Prudent Corp
Angel One
BSE
MCX
CAMS
Kfintech
CDSL
HDFC Life*
ICICI Pru*
SBI Life*
Max Fin*
Star Health
ICICI Lombard
New Estimates (INR)
FY25E
FY26E
FY27E
114.1
136.0
154.7
32.0
37.3
42.8
21.6
26.6
31.2
69.1
76.8
87.2
25.3
34.1
40.3
272.7
314.9
363.2
75.3
102.1
122.5
49.4
67.1
87.5
159.3
169.7
246.8
98.9
129.0
158.2
119.0
166.6
198.8
99.2
119.5
144.0
20.9
26.8
33.8
30.1
37.2
46.3
40.3
48.5
58.1
25.3
33.9
40.2
58.5
71.1
83.3
20.7
25.7
30.5
13.9
18.4
25.0
50.0
56.6
74.5
FY25E
118.9
34.5
22.7
79.8
25.2
272.3
75.3
49.4
169.0
99.2
123.5
99.2
20.9
30.7
39.9
26.4
59.8
21.0
17.0
50.8
Old Estimates (INR)
FY26E
136.4
38.2
26.6
77.6
33.3
314.9
102.1
67.1
189.7
129.0
166.6
119.5
26.8
37.9
48.0
32.1
72.7
25.7
21.3
60.6
FY27E
155.2
44.1
31.2
88.1
38.4
363.2
122.5
87.5
264.1
158.1
198.8
144.0
33.8
47.1
57.5
38.3
85.2
30.0
27.4
77.6
FY25E
-4.0
-7.0
-4.8
-13.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
-5.7
-0.3
-3.7
0.0
0.0
-1.8
0.9
-4.0
-2.1
-1.5
-18.0
-1.6
Change (%)
FY26E
-0.3
-2.2
0.0
-1.0
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
-10.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.8
1.0
5.5
-2.1
0.1
-13.6
-6.7
FY27E
-0.3
-2.8
0.0
-1.1
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-6.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.7
1.0
4.9
-2.1
1.5
-9.0
-4.0
January 2025
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
Exhibit 3:
Total demat accounts surpassed 180m
Demat (in m)
Exhibit 4:
BSE’s market share in notional turnover improved
NSE (%)
7
BSE (%)
9 10 14 13 15 17 19
23 22 23 25 27 23 24 29
93 91 90 86 87 85 83 81 77 78 77 75 73 77 76 71
Source: NSDL, CDSL MOFSL
Source: NSE, BSE, MOFSL
Exhibit 5:
NSE’s cash volumes declining since Jul’24
NSE (INR t)
Exhibit 6:
BSE’s cash volumes down from the peak
BSE (INR b)
Source: NSE, MOFSL
Source: BSE, MOFSL
Exhibit 7:
MCX option volumes maintaining momentum
Options Volumes (INR t)
Exhibit 8:
Decline in volumes of MCX futures in Dec’24
Futures Volumes (INR t)
5.5
3.8 4.1 3.4
3.5
6.2
5.2
6.3 6.2
5.7 5.7 6.1
5.4
4.1
4.7 4.6
Source: MCX, MOFSL
Source: MCX, MOFSL
Exhibit 9:
SIP flows continue to achieve new peaks
SIP Flows (INR b)
Exhibit 10:
Share of equity AUM down from the peak
Share of Equity AUM (%)
56.6
55.9 56.2
57.4
57.6
57.7
58.6
57.9
57.3
54.7
55.1
53.3
55.6
Source: AMFI, MOFSL
Source: AMFI, MOFSL
January 2025
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
Exhibit 11:
Net equity flows declined in Nov’24
Net Equity Flows (INR b)
424
448
325 298 291 320
282
527 494 545
388
587
482
393
401
Exhibit 12:
GI premium impacted by accounting change
General Insurance Premium (INR b)
372
Source: AMFI, MOFSL
Source: GIC, MOFSL
Exhibit 13:
Motor premium growth trend
Motor Insurance Premium - YoY change (%)
18
16
11
12
9
9
12
13
10
7
6
10
6
2
4
13
Exhibit 14:
Health segment growth trend
Health Insurance Premium - YoY change (%)
33
23
15
10 13
17 16 19 17 17 15
2
-2
-1
10
47
Source: GIC, MOFSL
Source: GIC, MOFSL
Exhibit 15:
Monthly APE for the life insurance industry
Monthly - Total APE (INR b)
Exhibit 16:
Individual APE growth YoY for pvt. listed players
SBI Life
90
60
30
0
-30
HDFC Life
IPRU Life
Max Life
Source: Life Insurance Council, MOFSL
Source: Life Insurance Council, MOFSL
January 2025
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
The tables below provide a snapshot of the actual and estimated numbers for companies under the MOFSL coverage
universe. Highlighted columns indicate the quarter/financial year under review.
ABSL AMC
CMP INR837 | TP: INR1,100 (+31%)
Weak market sentiments likely to impact flows into equity
schemes; flattish growth in QAAUM expected.
Expecting yields to remain stable due to flat AUM growth.
Buy
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -7.0|-2.2
Cost-to-income ratio likely to remain elevated YoY, largely
driven by growth in employee expenses.
Weak market performance during the quarter to hit other
income; expected to decline sequentially.
(INR m)
1Q
3,112
2.2
774
1,412
15
1,700
54.6
778
2,403
557
1,846
79.4
FY24
2Q
3,350
7.7
798
1,431
11
1,919
57.3
557
2,368
587
1,781
-7.1
3Q
3,415
8.7
794
1,472
12
1,943
56.9
795
2,635
542
2,093
25.9
4Q
3,656
23.1
842
1,607
16
2,049
56.0
745
2,676
592
2,084
53.7
1Q
3,866
24.3
892
1,664
18
2,203
57.0
948
3,045
688
2,357
27.7
FY25
2Q
4,242
26.6
894
1,738
21
2,504
59.0
958
3,351
928
2,423
36.1
3QE
4,255
24.6
913
1,768
20
2,487
58.5
479
2,854
699
2,155
2.9
4QE
4,345
18.9
926
1,789
11
2,556
58.8
614
3,055
762
2,294
10.1
FY24
13,532
10.3
3,208
5,922
13.5
7,610
56.2
2,874
10,082
2,278
7,804
30.8
FY25E
16,708
23.5
3,625
6,958
17.5
9,750
58.4
2,999
12,306
3,076
9,229
18.3
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Revenue from Operations
Change YoY (%)
Employee Expenses
Total Operating Expenses
Change YoY (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Other Income
PBT
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
Change YoY (%)
HDFC AMC
Buy
CMP INR4,162 | TP: INR5,200 (+25%)
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -4.0|-0.3
Equity AUM to maintain growth momentum backed by
Consistent cost-to-income ratio with stable growth in
improving fund performance.
operational expenses.
Yields likely to decline sequentially but scaling up of AUM to
Weak market performance during the quarter to hurt other
drive revenue growth.
income; likely to decline sequentially.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Revenue from Operations
Change YoY (%)
Employee Expenses
Total Operating Expenses
Change YoY (%)
EBIDTA
EBIDTA Margin (%)
Other Income
PBT
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
Change YoY (%)
1Q
5,745
10.1
838
1,460
10.6
4,285
74.6
1,580
5,713
939
4,775
52.0
(INR m)
FY25E
35,053
35.6
3,948
7,499
20.4
27,554
78.6
5,555
32,466
8,116
24,349
25.1
FY24
2Q
6,431
18.1
929
1,608
14.7
4,822
75.0
1,221
5,891
1,516
4,376
20.2
3Q
6,713
20.0
903
1,599
9.2
5,114
76.2
1,424
6,386
1,489
4,897
32.6
4Q
6,954
28.6
864
1,562
19.8
5,393
77.5
1,555
6,791
1,380
5,411
43.8
1Q
7,752
34.9
1,011
1,809
23.9
5,944
76.7
1,735
7,523
1,485
6,038
26.4
FY25
2Q
8,872
38.0
959
1,838
14.3
7,034
79.3
1,710
8,584
2,818
5,766
31.8
FY24
3QE
9,113
35.7
974
1,896
18.5
7,217
79.2
855
7,910
1,843
6,067
23.9
4QE
9,316
34.0
1,003
1,957
25.3
7,359
79.0
1,255
8,449
1,971
6,479
19.7
25,843
19.3
3,535
6,229
13.5
19,615
75.9
5,781
24,782
5,323
19,459
36.7
January 2025
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
Nippon Life India AMC
Buy
CMP INR754 | TP: INR900 (+19%)
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -4.8|0.0
Market share in other schemes (ETFs) has been above 17%
Scale benefits expected to improve cost-to-income ratio YoY
for the last seven months.
for 3QFY25.
AUM growth and stable yields to drive revenue growth for
Significant decline in other income likely due to weak market
the quarter.
performance during the quarter.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Revenue from Operations
Change YoY (%)
Employee Expenses
Total Operating Expenses
Change YoY (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Other Income
PBT
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
Change YoY (%)
1Q
3,542
12.0
780
1,517
11
2,024
57.2
1,169
3,099
746
2,354
105.9
(INR m)
FY24
2Q
3,975
19.9
799
1,561
13
2,414
60.7
779
3,104
661
2,443
18.6
3Q
4,233
19.6
881
1,642
17
2,592
61.2
1,071
3,581
741
2,840
38.7
4Q
4,683
34.4
886
1,775
27
2,908
62.1
923
3,741
315
3,426
73.3
1Q
5,050
42.6
1,051
1,886
24
3,164
62.7
1,308
4,388
1,066
3,322
41.1
FY25
2Q
5,713
43.7
1,069
1,969
26
3,744
65.5
1,208
4,861
1,261
3,600
47.4
3QE
5,855
38.3
1,075
1,995
22
3,860
65.9
604
4,369
1,114
3,255
14.6
4QE
6,013
28.4
1,088
2,034
15
3,979
66.2
723
4,601
1,168
3,432
0.2
FY24
16,432
21.7
3,346
6,495
17.0
9,937
60.5
3,941
13,525
2,462
11,063
53.0
FY25E
22,631
37.7
4,284
7,884
21.4
14,746
65.2
3,843
18,217
4,609
13,608
23.0
UTI AMC
Buy
CMP INR1,366 | TP: INR1,600 (+17%)
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -13.4|-1.0
Market share declined across schemes, resulting in marginal
Scale benefits to improve operational efficiency, resulting in
AUM growth expectation for 3QFY25.
YoY improvement in the cost-to-income ratio.
Yields anticipated to remain broadly stable sequentially,
Significant decline in other income expected due to weak
keeping revenue growth flattish QoQ.
market performance in 3QFY25.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Revenue from Operations
Change YoY (%)
Employee Expenses
Total Operating Expenses
Change YoY (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Other Income
PBT
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
Change YoY (%)
1Q
2,828
-1.6
1,063
1,680
11.9
1,148
40.6
1,858
2,884
540
2,344
148.3
(INR m)
FY24
2Q
2,916
0.3
1,112
1,725
4.6
1,191
40.8
1,140
2,198
370
1,828
-9.9
3Q
2,900
2.2
1,053
1,762
-0.9
1,138
39.2
1,602
2,607
573
2,034
236.5
4Q
3,177
17.9
1,165
1,876
5.0
1,301
41.0
1,026
2,180
365
1,815
111.7
1Q
3,368
19.1
1,137
1,781
6.0
1,587
47.1
1,970
3,413
670
2,743
17.0
FY25
2Q
3,730
27.9
1,153
1,901
10.2
1,829
49.0
1,671
3,357
726
2,631
43.9
3QE
3,776
30.2
1,170
1,951
10.7
1,825
48.3
418
2,094
482
1,612
-20.7
4QE
3,852
21.3
1,197
2,007
7.0
1,844
47.9
627
2,318
532
1,787
-1.5
FY24
11,821
4.5
4,393
7,043
4.9
4,778
40.4
5,626
9,869
1,848
8,020
80.9
FY25E
14,725
24.6
4,657
7,640
8.5
7,085
48.1
4,685
11,182
2,409
8,773
9.4
January 2025
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
360ONE WAM
Buy
CMP INR1,276 | | TP: INR1,450 (+14%)
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: +0.2|+2.4
ARR to contribute to overall revenue growth; TBR decline
Cost-to-income ratio is likely to improve YoY due to
likely to result in sequential dip in revenue.
economies of scale.
Decline in ARR as well as TBR yields to impact overall yields
Performance and costs of new business ventures and entry
in 3QFY25.
into new geographies will be closely monitored.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
1Q
Net Revenues
Change (%)
ARR Assets Income
TBR Assets Income
Operating Expenses
Change (%)
Cost to Income Ratio (%)
Operating Profits
Change (%)
Other Income
Profit Before Tax
Change (%)
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
PAT
Change (%)
PAT Margins (%)
4,055
8.2
3,217
839
2,103
25.9
51.9
1,952
-6.0
287
2,239
11.0
2,239
426
19.0
1,813
15.6
(INR m)
FY24
2Q
4,275
11.8
3,108
1,166
2,144
19.5
50.2
2,130
4.9
137
2,268
0.5
2,268
415
18.3
1,853
6.3
3Q
4,395
5.9
3,377
1,018
2,315
24.3
52.7
2,080
-9.0
271
2,350
5.3
2,350
410
17.4
1,940
13.1
4Q
5,731
45.8
3,568
2,163
3,002
62.3
52.4
2,729
31.3
500
3,229
61.4
3,229
817
25.3
2,412
55.2
1Q
6,002
48.0
3,756
2,247
2,649
25.9
44.1
3,354
71.8
969
4,323
93.1
3,447
1,011
23.4
2,435
34.3
FY25E
2Q
5,886
37.7
3,973
1,913
2,992
39.5
50.8
2,893
35.8
298
3,191
40.7
3,191
719
22.5
2,472
33.4
3QE
5,678
29.2
4,109
1,569
2,973
28.4
52.4
2,705
30.1
298
3,003
27.8
3,003
661
22.0
2,342
20.7
4QE
5,989
4.5
4,458
1,531
3,111
3.6
51.9
2,878
5.5
288
3,166
-2.0
3,166
621
19.6
2,544
5.5
FY24
18,456
17.9
13,270
5,185
9,565
33.3
51.8
8,891
4.9
1,195
10,085
18.6
10,085
2,068
20.5
8,018
21.8
FY25E
23,555
27.6
16,295
7,260
11,725
22.6
49.8
11,830
33.1
1,852
13,682
35.7
12,806
3,012
22.0
9,794
22.2
Anand Rathi Wealth
Neutral
CMP INR3,935 | | TP: INR4,500 (+14%)
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: +0.0|+0.0
Consistent AUM growth to be driven by equity and non-PP/
Cost-to-income ratio is likely to improve due to economies of
SP products.
scale and operational efficiency.
Yields to maintain the YoY improvement trajectory and to
RM addition and productivity improvement will be the key
remain stable sequentially.
growth drivers.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
MF – Equity & Debt
Distribution of Financial Products
Other Operating revenue
Revenue from Operations
Change QoQ (%)
Operating Expenses
Change QoQ (%)
EBIDTA
Depreciation
Finance Cost
Other Income
PBT
Change QoQ (%)
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
Change QoQ (%)
1Q
522
1,215
13
1,750
22.4
1,016
24
734
45
14
34
709
19
177
533
25
(INR m)
FY24
2Q
3Q
625
715
1,187
1,095
14
14
1,826
1,824
4.3
-0.1
1,051
1,026
3
-2
775
798
46
50
16
16
65
48
778
780
10
0
200
200
577
580
8
0
4Q
804
1,024
15
1,843
1.0
1,111
8
732
52
18
129
790
1
221
569
-2
1Q
890
1,471
15
2,376
28.9
1,394
25
982
57
14
78
990
25
256
734
29
FY25
2Q
1,057
1,352
15
2,424
2.0
1,384
-1
1,040
61
30
72
1,021
3
259
762
4
3QE
1,099
1,406
16
2,522
4.0
1,428
3
1,094
63
32
77
1,076
5
280
797
4
4QE
1,151
1,469
18
2,637
4.6
1,483
4
1,155
63
35
83
1,140
6
310
831
4
FY24
2,666
4,521
56
7,243
32.0
4,204
36
3,039
194
65
276
3,057
34
798
2,259
34
FY25E
4,197
5,698
64
9,959
37.5
5,688
35
4,271
243
110
310
4,227
38
1,104
3,124
38
January 2025
8
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
Nuvama Wealth
Buy
CMP INR6,974 | | TP: INR8,800 (+26%)
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: +0.2|+0.0
Wealth and asset management growth expected to remain
Cost-to-income ratio is likely to improve YoY due to
consistent, offset by decline in capital market income.
economies of scale.
Yields to remain broadly stable sequentially across all
Expansion strategy and further investment areas to be the
business segments.
key monitorables for future growth.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Revenue from Operations
Change YoY (%)
Employee expenses
Total Operating Expenses
Change YoY (%)
PBT before associate profit share
Change YoY (%)
Tax Provisions
PAT before associate profit share
Change YoY (%)
Share of profit of associates
Net Profit
Change YoY (%)
Key Operating Parameters (%)
Cost to Income Ratio
PBT Margin
PAT Margin
1Q
4,166
19.2
2,087
2,924
8.3
1,242
56.6
317
925
70.2
22
947
73.7
70.2
29.8
22.7
(INR m)
FY24
2Q
4,924
28.8
2,119
3,015
16.1
1,909
55.7
465
1,444
56.8
5
1,450
56.5
61.2
38.8
29.4
3Q
5,581
38.2
2,342
3,277
21.1
2,304
72.7
545
1,759
68.9
3
1,762
65.9
58.7
41.3
31.6
4Q
5,956
35.5
2,517
3,575
25.0
2,381
55.0
564
1,817
55.7
-10
1,807
57.2
60.0
40.0
30.3
1Q
6,675
60.2
2,793
3,741
27.9
2,934
136.2
760
2,174
135.0
37
2,210
133.5
56.0
44.0
33.1
FY25
2Q
7,402
50.3
2,983
3,920
30.0
3,482
82.4
902
2,580
78.6
0
2,580
78.0
53.0
47.0
34.9
3QE
7,413
32.8
3,132
4,146
26.5
3,267
41.8
849
2,418
37.5
12
2,430
37.9
55.9
44.1
32.8
4QE
7,759
30.3
3,259
4,415
23.5
3,345
40.5
871
2,473
36.1
27
2,500
38.4
56.9
43.1
32.2
FY24
20,627
30.9
9,065
12,791
17.7
7,836
60.3
1,891
5,945
61.9
20
5,964
62.8
62.0
38.0
28.9
FY25E
29,249
41.8
12,166
16,221
26.8
13,027
66.3
3,383
9,644
62.2
75
9,719
63.0
55.5
44.5
33.2
Prudent Corporate Advisory
CMP INR2,726 | | TP: INR3,200 (+17%)
Revenue growth to be driven by the sustained growth
momentum in AUM, offset by sequential decline in yields.
Mix of insurance product distribution likely to improve
sequentially.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Commission and Fees Income
Other Operating revenue
Revenue from Operations
Change YoY (%)
Operating Expenses
Change YoY (%)
EBIDTA
Depreciation
Finance Cost
Other Income
PBT
Change YoY (%)
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
Change YoY (%)
1Q
1,644
10
1,654
28.7
1,262
31.1
392
59.6
6.0
49
375
34.1
95.5
279
31.4
Neutral
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: +0.0|+0.0
Cost-to-income ratio is likely to improve YoY due to
economies of scale and remain stable sequentially.
Growth in SIP and market share accretion will be the key
growth drivers.
(INR m)
FY24
2Q
1,886
14
1,900
28.7
1,469
39.4
432
61.3
5.0
41
406
9.6
101.7
304
10.0
3Q
2,084
15
2,099
32.5
1,599
38.1
500
63.0
3.6
45
479
24.4
121.6
357
25.1
4Q
2,376
21
2,397
35.5
1,789
51.0
608
64.3
7.8
62
598
5.6
152.1
446
4.6
1Q
2,477
17
2,494
50.8
1,904
50.8
590
62.9
4.9
70
592
57.9
149.9
442
58.3
FY25
2Q
2,845
15
2,861
50.5
2,174
48.0
687
67.2
5.7
78
693
70.6
177.9
515
69.2
3QE
2,907
15
2,922
39.2
2,222
39.0
700
67.2
5.7
70
697
45.7
173.6
524
46.7
4QE
3,102
14
3,116
30.0
2,362
32.0
753
67.7
7.7
70
747
25.1
180.8
567
27.2
FY24
7,990
61
8,051
31.7
6,120
40.4
1,932
248
21
196
1,858
18.5
471
1,387
18.9
FY25E
11,331
62
11,393
41.5
8,663
41.6
2,730
265
24
288
2,729
46.9
682
2,047
47.5
January 2025
9
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
Angel One
CMP INR3,017 | TP: INR3,800 (+26%)
Pace of client addition has moderated in Nov’24 and was the
lowest since Jul’23.
Slowdown in daily order run-rate and F&O/cash volumes;
commodity volumes remain strong.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Revenue from Operations
Other Income
Total Income
Change YoY (%)
Operating Expenses
Change YoY (%)
Depreciation
PBT
Change YoY (%)
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
Change YoY (%)
1Q
5,198
1,088
6,286
22.0
3,230
21.4
89
2,967
22.3
759
2,208
21.6
Buy
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -5.7|-10.6
MTF book expanded at a strong pace and has been stable
over the last three months.
Weak client acquisitions, offset by increased hiring costs, to
improve the cost-to-income ratio YoY.
(INR m)
FY24
2Q
3Q
6,747
6,874
1,411
1,401
8,158
8,275
46.0
43.9
3,974
4,635
49.3
75.1
112
131
4,072
3,509
42.5
16.1
1,027
907
3,045
2,602
42.5
13.9
4Q
8,742
1,869
10,611
64.7
5,856
114.0
167
4,588
26.9
1,188
3,400
27.3
1Q
9,150
1,983
11,133
77.1
6,940
114.8
226
3,968
33.7
1,041
2,927
32.5
FY25E
2Q
9,774
2,210
11,984
46.9
6,007
51.2
256
5,721
40.5
1,487
4,234
39.1
3QE
8,437
1,216
9,653
16.6
5,080
9.6
286
4,287
22.2
1,114
3,173
21.9
4QE
8,942
1,292
10,234
-3.6
6,043
3.2
316
3,875
-15.5
1,007
2,868
-15.6
FY24
27,562
5,769
33,331
45.3
17,695
65.3
498
15,137
26.9
3,881
11,255
26.4
FY25E
36,304
6,700
43,004
29.0
24,069
36.0
1,084
17,851
17.9
4,650
13,202
17.3
BSE
BUY
CMP INR5,426| TP: INR6,500 (20%)
EPS CHANGE (%) FY25|26: -0.3|0.0
The best ever premium to notional turnover ratio witnessed
Continued momentum with respect to new listings to boost
in Dec’24, offsetting the adverse impact of volume decline.
revenue from service to corporates.
Transaction revenue to witness growth across cash,
Decline in regulatory and clearing costs, due to a fall in
derivatives, and MF segments.
notional turnover, to improve profitability.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Revenue from Operations
YoY Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Investment Income
PBT before EO Expense
Exceptional items
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
P/L of Asso. Cos.
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
Margins (%)
1Q
2,156
15.4
1,455
701
32.5
214
65
556
977
3,657
4,634
371
8
119
4,382
1,018
995
47.2
(INR m)
FY24
2Q
3,145
59.1
1,814
1,331
42.3
227
0
525
1,629
0
1,629
636
39
190
1,184
1,184
303
37.6
3Q
3,717
82.2
2,796
921
24.8
249
0
598
1,271
-16
1,255
371
30
165
1,049
1,060
379
28.5
4Q
4,885
115.2
3,923
962
19.7
265
0
600
1,297
-17
1,280
470
37
244
1,054
1,064
19
21.8
1Q
6,077
181.9
3,239
2,838
46.7
240
0
666
3,265
0
3,265
851
26
227
2,642
2,642
-40
43.5
FY25E
2Q
3QE
7,463
7,589
137.3
104.2
3,573
3,385
3,890
4,204
52.1
55.4
291
285
0
0
727
675
4,325
4,594
-2
0
4,323
4,594
1,109
1,148
26
25
244
245
3,458
3,690
3,459
3,690
192
252
46.3
48.6
FY24
FY25E
4QE
7,635 13,903 28,765
56.3
70.5 106.9
3,179 9,988 13,376
4,456 3,915 15,388
58.4
28.2
53.5
306
954 1,122
0
65
0
600 2,279 2,668
4,750 5,174 16,934
0 3,624
-2
4,750 8,798 16,932
1,188 1,848 4,296
25
21
25
254
719
970
3,816 7,668 13,606
3,816 4,326 13,607
273
77
262
50.0
55.2
47.3
January 2025
10
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
MCX
CMP INR6,285| TP: INR 7,200(+15%)
Growth momentum maintained for volumes driven by high
volatility in commodity prices.
Options ADTO increased sequentially to INR2.04t from
INR1.94t in 1QFY25.
Neutral
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -3.7|0.0
Futures ADTO rose sequentially to INR280b from INR270b in
1QFY25.
Costs are expected to remain stable, while revenue growth
will drive margin improvement and profitability.
Quarterly Performance
1Q
Sales
Y-o-Y Gr. (%)
EBITDA
Tax
Rate (%)
Profit from Associate
PAT
Y-o-Y Gr. (%)
EPS (INR)
Total Volumes (INR t)
Y-o-Y Gr. (%)
1,458
34.0
107
58
21.6
-13
197
-53
3.9
51.8
80.7
FY24
2Q
1,651
29.6
-287
16
-9.9
-10
-191
-130
-3.7
67.0
86.3
3Q
1,915
33.4
-197
-91
68.3
-11
-54
-114
-1.1
73.6
80.6
4Q
1,811
35.4
1,020
205
19.3
19
878
1,512
17.3
82.7
97.1
1Q
2,344
60.8
1,326
273
19.8
4
1,109
464
21.8
112.3
116.8
FY25E
2Q
2,856
73.0
1,794
374
19.6
4
1,536
-906
30.2
143.2
113.8
3QE
3,180
66.1
2,036
432
20.0
0
1,728
-3,330
34.0
148.4
101.6
4QE
3,337
84.3
2,129
627
27.1
11
1,694
93
33.3
159.9
93.4
FY24
6,835
33.1
643
189
18.2
-15
831
-44
16.3
275.0
86.7
(INR m)
FY25E
11,717
71.4
7,284
1,706
22.0
19
6,068
630
119.0
563.7
105.0
CDSL
CMP INR1,809 | TP: INR1,900 (+5%)
Weak cash delivery volumes and demat addition to hit
revenue. This will be offset by recurring annual issuer
charges and sustained IPO momentum.
Neutral
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -1.8|-1.8
Cost structure expected to remain largely stable.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Revenue from Operations
Change YoY (%)
Employee expenses
Other Expenses
Total Operating Expenses
Change YoY (%)
EBITDA
Other Income
Depreciation
PBT
Change YoY (%)
Tax Provisions
P&L from associate
Net Profit
Change YoY (%)
1Q
1,497
6.8
226
464
690
7
807
242
58
990
28
242
-11
737
28
(INR m)
FY24
2Q
2,073
39.2
224
555
779
39
1,294
228
65
1,457
33
358
-9
1,090
35
3Q
2,145
51.9
237
593
830
48
1,314
215
69
1,460
46
375
-10
1,075
44
4Q
2,408
93.0
276
653
929
68
1,479
266
80
1,665
100
390
20
1,294
105
1Q
2,574
72.0
267
762
1,029
49
1,544
295
98
1,741
76
405
5
1,342
82
FY25
2Q
3,223
55.4
314
910
1,225
57
1,998
362
119
2,241
54
627
6
1,620
49
3QE
3,086
43.9
314
886
1,200
45
1,886
380
122
2,144
47
536
6
1,614
50
4QE
3,369
39.9
319
984
1,302
40
2,067
314
123
2,258
36
587
6
1,677
30
FY24
8,122
46.3
963
2265
3,229
39.3
4,894
950
272
5,572
50.7
1,365
-11
4,197
52.0
FY25E
12,252
50.8
1,215
3,541
4,756
47
7,495
1,352
462
8,385
50
2,155
23
6,253
49
January 2025
11
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
CAMS
CMP INR5,108 | TP: INR6,000 (+17%)
Stable momentum with respect to equity flows during the
quarter will drive revenue growth.
Operational efficiency is likely to improve profitability.
Buy
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: +0.0|+0.0
Yields are expected to remain stable sequentially as share of
equity AUM is maintained.
The contribution from non-MF businesses will be closely
tracked, especially AIF/PMS RTA and Insurance Repository.
(INR m)
1Q
2,613
10.4
950
1,512
9.0
1,101
97
165
20
1,012
16.4
255
757
17.1
FY24
2Q
2,751
13.5
977
1,530
12.2
1,221
96
174
20
1,124
15.9
286
838
16.2
3Q
2,897
18.9
997
1,603
18.4
1,294
99
185
21
1,187
21.4
302
885
20.3
4Q
3,105
24.6
1,048
1,671
19.2
1,433
114
181
21
1,346
36.6
316
1,030
38.5
1Q
3,314
26.8
1,130
1,816
20.1
1,498
117
170
21
1,424
40.7
354
1,070
41.3
FY25E
2Q
3,652
32.7
1,186
1,950
27.5
1,702
126
184
22
1,622
44.4
414
1,208
44.2
3QE
3,725
28.6
1,209
1,981
23.6
1,744
135
184
22
1,673
41.0
418
1,255
41.8
4QE
3,848
23.9
1,241
2,021
20.9
1,827
144
185
23
1,763
31.0
434
1,329
29.1
FY24
11,365
16.9
3,972
6,316
14.7
5,049
406
705
82
4,668
22.8
1,159
3,510
23.3
FY25E
14,538
27.9
4,766
7,767
23.0
6,771
522
722
88
6,483
38.9
1,621
4,862
38.5
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Revenue from Operations
Change YoY (%)
Employee Expenses
Total Operating Expenses
Change YoY (%)
EBITDA
Other Income
Depreciation
Finance Cost
PBT
Change YoY (%)
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
Change YoY (%)
Kfintech
CMP INR1,545 | TP: INR1,400 (-9%)
Strong equity flows during the quarter will drive AUM and
revenue growth.
Operational efficiency is expected to improve profitability.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
1Q
Revenue from Operations
Change YoY (%)
Employee expenses
Other Expenses
Total Operating Expenses
Change YoY (%)
EBITDA
Other Income
Depreciation
Finance Cost
PBT
Change YoY (%)
Tax Provisions
Net Profit
Change YoY (%)
1,815
7.6
756
355
1,111
4.6
704
53
124
29
604
18.0
165
434
15.9
Neutral
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: +0.0|+0.0
Contribution from non-MF businesses, especially issuer
solutions, to further boost revenue growth.
(INR m)
FY24
2Q
2,090
16.0
760
393
1,153
5.7
937
63
126
32
842
41.5
223
614
28.1
3Q
2,187
16.3
831
377
1,208
4.8
979
64
134
12
898
6.6
226
668
25.2
4Q
2,283
24.7
850
387
1,237
2.4
1,046
66
146
11
955
6.4
199
745
30.6
1Q
2,376
30.9
958
421
1,379
11.4
997
81
148
12
918
-3.8
237
681
56.9
FY25
2Q
2,805
34.2
1,018
522
1,539
11.6
1,265
105
165
11
1,195
30.1
301
893
45.5
3QE
2,945
34.7
1,060
533
1,593
3.5
1,352
105
169
11
1,277
6.9
319
958
43.3
4QE
3,088
35.2
1,088
552
1,639
2.9
1,449
115
175
13
1,376
7.8
343
1,033
38.7
FY24
8,375
16.3
3,197
1,513
4,709
3,666
247
530
84
3,298
27.7
813
2,461
25.7
FY25E
11,214
33.9
4,124
2,027
6,151
5,063
407
657
46
4,766
44.5
1,201
3,565
44.9
January 2025
12
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
HDFC Life
CMP: INR617 | TP: INR800(30%)
New business premium to maintain growth momentum,
driven by the Annuity and Par segments.
VNB margins are likely to expand QoQ with robust VNB
growth.
Quarterly Performance
Policy Holder's A/c
First Year Premium
Growth (%)
Renewal Premium
Growth (%)
Single Premium
Growth (%)
Gross Premium Inc.
Growth (%)
Surplus/(Deficit)
Growth (%)
PAT
Growth (%)
Key Metrics (INRb)
New Business APE
Growth (%)
VNB
Growth (%)
AUM (INR b)
Growth (%)
Key Ratios (%)
VNB Margins (%)
1Q
18.5
8.4%
58.0
13.8%
40.2
24.0%
116.7
16.2%
2.1
0.9%
4.2
15.4%
23.3
12.8
6.1
17.8
2,533
18.7
26.2
FY24
2Q
25.7
5.9%
78.4
13.5%
45.4
14.7%
149.4
12.5%
2.3
-7.2%
3.8
15.5%
30.5
6.8
8.0
4.0
2,649
17.8
26.2
Buy
VNB CHANGE (%): FY25|26: +0.9|+1.0
Improvement in persistency ratio and commentary on
growth outlook are the key monitorables.
The share of HDFC Bank in the distribution mix and the
outlook ahead will be critical monitorables.
(INR b)
3Q
26.8
-1.7%
84.0
16.8%
44.5
-4.6%
155.3
6.5%
0.6
-81.4%
3.7
15.8%
31.9
-2.1
8.6
-2.2
2,797
19.6
26.8
4Q
40.1
-10.1%
114.1
23.3%
55.2
-6.6%
209.4
6.7%
2.7
-52.3%
4.1
14.6%
47.3
-8.4
12.3
-18.3
2,922
22.4
26.1
1Q
23.6
27.4%
64.1
10.5%
40.4
0.6%
128.1
9.7%
5.6
165.7%
4.8
15.0%
28.7
23.1
7.2
17.7
3,102
22.5
25.0
FY25
2Q
3QE
32.5
34.5
26.8%
28.7%
88.3
99.6
12.7%
18.6%
48.4
48.1
6.8%
8.0%
169.3
182.1
13.3%
17.3%
5.1
2.3
122.6%
282.1%
4.3
4.3
14.9%
18.8%
38.6
26.7
9.4
17.1
3,249
22.7
24.3
38.7
21.2
9.7
13.0
3,396
21.4
25.0
4QE
46.8
16.5%
135.0
18.4%
57.7
4.5%
239.5
14.4%
2.5
-6.9%
4.8
16.8%
55.2
16.7
14.1
14.0
3,631
24.2
25.5
FY24
111.1
-1.9%
334.5
17.6%
185.2
4.3%
630.8
9.6%
7.8
-43%
15.7
15.3%
129.6
-1.0%
35.0
-4.7%
2,922
22.4%
26.3
FY25E
138.0
24.2%
398.3
19.1%
192.3
3.8%
728.6
15.5%
15.6
101.4%
18.1
15.2%
161.2
24.3%
40.3
15.1%
3,631
24.2%
25.0
ICICI Prudential Life
CMP: INR661 | TP: INR840 (27%)
New business premium is likely to experience strong YoY
growth driven by the group business.
VNB growth is likely to remain healthy, but margin to dip
QoQ owing to the higher share of ULIPs.
Quarterly Performance
Policy Holder's A/c
First Year Premium
Growth (%)
Renewal Premium
Growth (%)
Single Premium
Growth (%)
Gross Premium Income
Growth (%)
PAT
Growth (%)
Key Metrics (INRb)
New Business APE
Growth (%)
VNB
Growth (%)
AUM
Growth (%)
Key Ratios (%)
VNB Margins (%)
1Q
10.2
-1.5%
41.6
6.8%
21.9
-5.9%
73.7
1.5%
2.1
32.9%
14.6
-3.9%
4.4
-7.0%
2,664
15.8%
30.0
FY24
2Q
3Q
15.3
15.3
5.9%
11.3%
58.9
60.8
4.4%
5.7%
30.1
26.7
7.0%
0.9%
104.3
102.8
5.4%
5.2%
2.4
2.3
22.4%
3.1%
20.6
3.2%
5.8
-7.1%
2,719
11.3%
28.0
19.1
4.7%
4.4
-29.4%
2,867
13.8%
22.9
Buy
VNB CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -4.0|+5.5
Expense ratio outlook will be the key monitorable.
Growth in the Non-Linked business is expected to remain
healthy and recovery is projected in the Protection business.
(INR b)
4Q
29.5
11.9%
84.3
16.6%
37.8
20.7%
151.5
16.6%
1.7
-26.0%
36.2
9.6%
7.8
-26.4%
2,942
17.1%
21.5
1Q
15.2
48.8%
43.3
4.3%
24.3
10.6%
82.8
12.3%
2.3
8.9%
19.6
34.4%
4.7
7.8%
3,089
15.9%
24.0
FY25E
2Q
3QE
20.6
32.9
34.6%
114.7%
69.9
68.2
18.6%
12.3%
30.3
32.4
0.9%
21.2%
120.8
133.6
15.8%
29.9%
2.5
2.5
3.1%
12.0%
25.0
21.4%
5.9
1.6%
3,205
17.9%
23.4
26.0
36.2%
6.0
37.0%
3,349
16.8%
23.0
4QE
31.0
5.4%
91.5
8.6%
42.6
12.9%
165.2
9.0%
2.9
65.4%
37.6
3.9%
8.8
13.0%
3,512
19.4%
23.3
FY24
70.3
8.3%
245.6
9.0%
116.5
6.7%
432.4
8.3%
8.5
5.1%
90.5
4.7%
22.3
-19.5%
2,942
17.1%
24.6
FY25E
99.8
41.9%
273.0
11.2%
129.6
11.3%
502.3
16.2%
10.2
19.6%
108.2
19.6%
25.3
13.7%
3,512
19.4%
23.4
January 2025
13
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
Max Financial
CMP: INR1101| TP: INR1200 (+7%)
New business premium growth sustained in double digits.
VNB and VNB margin are projected to decline slightly on a
sequential basis.
Policy Holder's A/c (INR b)
First Year Premium
Growth (%)
Renewal Premium
Growth (%)
Single Premium
Growth (%)
Gross Premium Income
Growth (%)
PAT
Growth (%)
Key Metrics (INRb)
New Business APE
Growth (%)
VNB
Growth (%)
AUM
Growth (%)
Key Ratios (%)
VNB Margins (%)
1Q
9.9
8.0%
30.1
15.1%
8.7
52.8%
48.7
18.7%
1.0
13.2%
11.1
10.3%
2.5
16.0%
1,291.3
20.5%
22.2
FY24
2Q
3Q
15.3
17.6
37.7%
20.7%
42.0
46.1
7.5%
14.6%
8.9
9.3
14.2%
15.5%
66.3
73.0
14.2%
16.1%
1.6
1.5
196.2%
-34.9%
16.5
38.8%
4.2
11.5%
1,341.6
18.4%
25.2
18.0
18.9%
4.9
-17.5%
1,426.2
20.5%
27.2
Neutral
VNB CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -1.5|+0.1
The proprietary channel is likely to exhibit healthy trends.
Wallet share with Axis Bank and other bank partners is a key
monitorable.
1Q
12.6
27.1%
33.2
10.3%
8.2
-5.7%
54.0
10.8%
1.6
51.4%
14.5
30.5%
2.5
2.8%
1,611.5
24.8%
17.5
FY25
2Q
20.5
33.6%
47.2
12.4%
9.7
8.4%
77.4
16.8%
1.4
-11.2%
21.7
31.3%
5.1
23.1%
1,701.4
26.8%
23.6
FY24
3QE
21.3
21.2%
53.2
15.5%
10.1
8.7%
84.7
16.0%
1.6
4.1%
4QE
30.9
21.9%
75.4
12.8%
16.6
9.8%
122.9
14.5%
1.8
-445.5%
33.1
15.4%
8.2
-0.6%
1,692.7
12.2%
24.6
68.9
16.8%
185.1
13.0%
41.3
35.1%
295.3
16.5%
3.6
-17.8%
73.0
17.7%
19.7
1.2%
1,508.4
22.8%
31.2
FY25E
85.3
23.9%
212.9
15.0%
45.9
11.0%
344.2
16.5%
6.3
74.8%
89.9
23.2%
20.7
4.8%
1,692.7
12.2%
23.0
4Q
25.4
5.3%
66.8
14.6%
15.2
66.5%
107.4
17.3%
-0.5
-186.4%
28.7
13.2%
8.2
6.6%
1,508.4
22.8%
28.6
20.7
15.2%
4.9
-0.6%
1,769.5
24.1%
23.5
SBI Life
Buy
CMP: INR1,401 | TP: INR1,850 (+32%)
VNB CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -2.1|-2.1
Growth in the new business premium is expected to remain
Cost leadership is projected to continue.
stable.
Single-digit VNB growth is anticipated, while margin is likely
Sluggish growth in the SBI channel has been an area of
to remain flattish QoQ.
concern, making the outlook in this area crucial.
Quarterly Performance
Policy Holder's A/c
First Year Premium
Growth (%)
Renewal Premium
Growth (%)
Single Premium
Growth (%)
Gross Premium Income
Growth (%)
PAT
Growth (%)
Key Metrics (INRb)
New Business APE
Growth (%)
VNB
Growth (%)
AUM
Growth (%)
Key Ratios (%)
VNB Margins (%)
1Q
26.4
3%
73.5
28%
35.7
18%
135.6
19%
3.8
45%
30.3
4%
8.7
-1%
3,283
25%
28.8
FY24
2Q
3Q
46.3
56.8
33%
12%
101.2
127.2
11%
17%
54.2
40.6
35%
21%
201.8
224.6
21%
16%
3.8
3.2
1%
6%
52.3
33%
14.9
20%
3,452
22%
28.5
61.3
13%
16.8
11%
3,714
24%
27.4
4Q
45.3
11%
130.0
9%
77.1
93%
252.4
26%
8.1
4%
53.3
17%
15.1
5%
3,889
27%
28.3
1Q
31.5
19%
85.4
16%
38.9
9%
155.7
15%
5.2
36%
36.4
20%
9.7
11%
4,148
26%
26.8
FY25
2Q
3QE
49.2
64.6
6%
14%
117.2
143.4
16%
13%
37.8
51.0
-30%
26%
204.1
259.0
1%
15%
5.3
5.0
39%
56%
53.9
3%
14.5
-3%
4,390
27%
26.9
66.3
8%
17.9
6%
4,565
23%
27.0
4QE
52.7
16%
151.9
17%
81.7
6%
286.3
13%
9.6
19%
60.8
14%
16.4
9%
4,603
18%
27.0
FY24
174.8
15%
431.9
14%
207.6
44%
814.3
21%
18.9
10%
197.5
17%
55.5
9%
3,889
27%
28.1
(INR b)
FY25E
195.8
12%
494.4
14%
231.8
12%
922.0
13%
25.1
33%
220.8
12%
58.5
5%
4,603
18%
26.5
January 2025
14
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
ICICI Lombard
CMP INR1,808| TP: INR2,200 (+22%)
Slowdown in motor segment and change in accounting for
long-term health policies hurt premium growth.
Claims environment to remain stable YoY and loss ratio
improvement expected on a QoQ basis.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Net Earned Premium
Total Income
Change YoY (%)
Incurred Claims
Total Operating Expenses
Change YoY (%)
Underwriting Profit
Rep Net Profit
Claims Ratio
Commission Ratio
Expense Ratio
Combined Ratio
1Q
38.9
45.4
14.1
28.8
42.1
14.9
-3.2
3.9
74.1
12.5
17.2
103.8
Buy
EPS CHANGE (%) FY25|26: -1.6|-6.7
Change in accounting in the health segment (for long-term
policies) will result in elevated expense ratios.
(INRb)
FY24
2Q
3Q
43.1
43.0
50.5
50.0
12.2
14.7
30.5
30.1
44.5
45.9
11.6
12.3
-1.5
-2.8
5.8
4.3
70.7
70.0
17.4
18.0
15.8
15.5
103.9
103.6
4Q
43.7
51.6
-1.8
30.0
46.0
15.7
-2.3
5.2
68.6
19.9
13.7
102.2
1Q
45.0
53.5
17.9
33.3
48.5
15.3
-3.5
5.8
74.0
15.0
13.3
102.3
FY25E
2Q
50.3
58.5
15.9
35.9
51.9
16.5
-1.6
6.9
71.4
17.5
15.6
104.5
3QE
48.7
57.6
15.1
34.1
51.4
12.0
-2.6
6.3
70.0
18.7
16.0
104.7
4QE
49.4
58.5
13.4
34.3
52.3
13.8
-3.0
5.6
69.4
19.0
16.5
104.9
FY24
168.7
197.5
9.2
119.4
178.5
13.6
-9.8
19.2
70.8
17.0
15.5
103.3
FY25E
193.4
228.2
15.5
137.6
204.1
14.3
-10.7
24.6
71.1
17.5
15.3
104.0
Star Health
CMP INR482 | TP: INR560 (+16%)
Premium expected to grow in double digits, but to be
impacted by change in accounting for long-term policies
Claims ratio anticipated to improve sequentially.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Net Earned Premium
Total Income
Change YoY (%)
Incurred Claims
Total Operating Expenses
Change YoY (%)
Underwriting Profit
Net Profit
Claims Ratio
Commission Ratio
Expense Ratio
Combined Ratio
1Q
30,438
31,898
13.6
19,909
28,983
14.5
1,454
2,879
65.4
13.1
19.3
97.8
Buy
EPS CHANGE (%): FY25|26: -18.0|-13.6
Change in accounting in the health segment (for long-term
policies) will result in elevated expense ratios.
(INRm)
FY24
2Q
3Q
32,056
32,936
33,566
34,563
15.0
15.9
22,022
22,295
32,839
31,794
17.0
16.0
-784
1,142
1,253
2,896
68.7
67.7
13.7
11.1
16.8
19.0
99.2
97.8
4Q
33,953
35,764
17.1
21,774
34,864
17.1
-911
1,423
64.1
14.3
14.4
92.8
1Q
35,203
36,916
15.7
23,789
33,800
16.6
1,404
3,189
67.6
13.5
18.1
99.2
FY25
2Q
3QE
37,039
37,936
39,142
40,036
16.6
15.8
26,959
26,935
38,986
38,500
18.7
21.1
-1,947
-564
1,113
2,178
72.8
71.0
13.8
13.8
16.4
17.6
103.0
102.4
4QE
39,517
41,989
17.4
26,356
41,387
18.7
-1,870
1,697
66.7
14.0
15.0
95.7
FY24
1,29,383
1,35,790
15.4
85,999
1,28,480
16.2
903
8,450
66.5
13.2
17.0
96.7
FY25E
1,49,695
1,58,083
16.4
1,04,038
1,52,672
18.8
-2,977
8,178
69.5
13.8
16.6
99.9
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
January 2025
15
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
NOTES
January 2025
16
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
> - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take
appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report or date of the public appearance.
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Companies where there is interest
Analyst ownership of the stock
No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at
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January 2025
17
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
December 2024 Results Preview | Sector: Capital Markets and Insurance
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January 2025
18