Sector Update |3 March 2025
Hotels
Steady growth ahead!
Number of Muharat days
Indian hospitality industry anticipates a strong 4QFY25 performance
The Indian hotel industry is poised to continue its strong recovery in 4QFY25, fueled by
healthy traction in MICE (meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions) activities,
cultural events, and a strong wedding season. According to our recent channel checks, key
hospitality players are likely to witness 12-14% YoY RevPAR growth in 4Q (similar to
3QFY25), primarily driven by growth in ARR (11-13%) and higher occupancy levels.
The strong end to 3Q set the stage for a robust Jan’25 and Feb’25, where key
hospitality players are witnessing healthy RevPAR growth, led by a double-digit ARR
growth and higher occupancy.
30
4QFY24
29
4QFY25E
Mumbai and Delhi NCR would continue to experience RevPAR growth in 4Q, in line
with 3QFY25, supported by a strong lineup of MICE and cultural activities. Key metro
cities in the southern region (Bangalore and Hyderabad) and Pune are likely to
continue the strong traction aided by a pickup in business activities. The business
activities are improving sequentially due to fewer holidays.
RevPAR YoY Growth
We expect the overall hotel industry to maintain its growth rates in 4Q, supported by
industry tailwinds, favorable demand-supply dynamics, and corporate rate hikes
leading to higher ARR and high occupancy levels. This, coupled with incremental
contributions from inventory addition, stabilization of key hotels, and reopening
renovated hotels with additional keys, will lead to healthy earnings for most of the
hospitality companies in 4QFY25.
4QFY24
3QFY25
4QFY25E
Note: Refer Exhibit 5
Strong 4Q ahead; outlook remains optimistic
The strong end to 3Q has set the stage for an uninterrupted Q4FY25, which is
likely to see a robust performance thanks to similar wedding Muhurats YoY (~29
days in 4QFY25 vs. ~30 in 4QFY24; refer to Exhibit 5) and continued healthy
traction in MICE activities (sports events, concerts, business expos, cultural
events, etc.; refer to Exhibit 6).
The unprecedented scale of Coldplay’s India tour in Jan’25 led to a surge in hotel
room rates and occupancy in Mumbai and Ahmedabad. These concerts
highlighted
India’s untapped potential for hosting large-scale international
events,
reinforcing the country’s attractiveness as a destination for global
entertainment and tourism-driven economic activity.
According to our channel checks, most of the hospitality companies expect
RevPAR growth (~12-14%) to be in line with the strong growth witnessed in
3QFY25. Jan and Feb’25 maintained high occupancy rates with double-digit ARR
growth (11-13%) led by numerous concerts, MICE events, and the number of
higher wedding dates.
With large events (domestic and international) and MICE activities consistently
increasing in India, we expect the hospitality industry to continue its growth
momentum over a longer tenure.
Sumant Kumar - Research Analyst
(Sumant.Kumar@MotilalOswal.com) |
Research Analyst: Meet Jain
(Meet.Jain@MotilalOswal.com) |
Nirvik Saini
(Nirvik.Saini@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.