Sector
Sector Update | Financials
Update | 6 March 2025
Indian General Insurance
Fire GWP growth trend
Fire GWP (INRb)
YoY growth
36.1
26.8
P&C becoming pricey!
7.0 11.1 7.2
(5.8)
159 201 215 239 257 212
Top players in the fire insurance
industry
Market
Share (%)
NIA
ICICI Lombard
BAGIC
Tata AIG
HDFC ERGO
United India
Oriental
SBI General
Reliance General
National Insurance
Go Digit
FY23
17.7
12.8
9.0
7.9
7.1
7.9
6.7
6.8
4.2
4.9
1.7
FY24
17.1
13.1
9.3
8.1
7.0
8.1
6.1
7.1
4.3
4.6
1.9
YTD
FY25
15.7
13.4
10.6
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.2
6.1
5.0
4.6
2.1
Fire insurance GWP clocked a 17% CAGR over FY20-24, driven by rising infrastructure
development, growing awareness, and government initiatives. However, in YTDFY25
(till Jan’25), GWP declined 6% YoY, largely due to aggressive discounting by players to
address competitive pressure.
The rising NATCAT claims over the past few years, driven by an increase in catastrophic
events, have largely impacted the commercial lines segment, as evidenced by the
increase in the fire segment loss ratio to 78.3% in FY24 from 58% in FY23. However, in
9MFY25, prudent business selection resulted in only 50-60bp NATCAT impact for BAGIC
and ICICIGI (90-100bp in 9MFY24).
Aggressive discounting amid the high incidence of catastrophic events has led to
unsustainable loss ratios in the commercial segments, creating solvency pressures for
reinsurers. Hence, players have raised their insurance rates, as seen in Jan’25 renewals.
This is expected to drive growth in fire insurance GWP and potentially improve
profitability.
Commercial insurance accounted for ~10% of general insurance premiums. The price
hike is expected to boost industry growth, complemented by increased demand fueled
by: a) a pickup in infrastructure activity and b) favorable lending terms for SMEs. Key
players are enhancing their tech capabilities to improve risk analysis and underwriting
experience, which will help them capture greater market share.
ICICIGI is the largest private insurer in the fire segment, holding a 13.4% market share
in YTDFY25. We remain positive on ICICIGI’s ability to capitalize on growth
opportunities in the fire segment, especially with pricing discipline returning to the
market. We reiterate our BUY rating with a one-year TP of INR2,100 (premised on 32x
FY27E EPS).
Increasing catastrophic events impacting the entire insurance ecosystem
Over the past few years, India and countries across the globe have experienced an
increase in the frequency, intensity, and geographical spread of catastrophic
events. This trend has had a significant impact on the entire ecosystem, from
insurers to reinsurers to customers.
General insurers, especially those dealing with commercial insurance, witnessed a
significant rise in claims following catastrophic events, affecting their profitability. In
FY24, the claims ratio of the fire industry jumped to 78.3% from 58% in FY23.
The large-scale nature of losses in commercial insurance necessitates reliance on
reinsurers to mitigate exposure. Increased occurrences of catastrophic events have
impacted the profitability and solvency of reinsurers. GIC Re, the only Indian
reinsurer (51% market share of gross reinsurance premiums), witnessed a rise in its
claims ratio to 89% in FY24 (vs 80% in FY23).
The hardening of reinsurance costs to maintain solvency will lead to price hikes for
commercial insurance, ultimately affecting policyholders.
Globally, natural catastrophe insured losses remain elevated at USD145b,
surpassing USD100b for the fifth consecutive year (S&P Global Reinsurance Sector
View 2025). The rising frequency and severity of claims have led to a consistent
hardening of rates in the global reinsurance market over the years.
1
Reinsurance rates hardening globally; India to see hardening in 2025
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Research Analyst -Prayesh Jain
(Prayesh.Jain@MotilalOswal.com) |
Nitin Aggarwal
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
Research
2025
-Kartikeya Mohata
(Kartikeya.Mohata@MotilalOswal.com) |
Muskan Chopra
(Muskan.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com)
6 March
Analyst
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
In India, insurers underpriced high-risk insurance coverage to achieve growth
and garner market share in the highly competitive environment. This has
adversely impacted the claims ratios of reinsurers, prompting industry-wide
premium increases, which have already started to reflect in Jan’25 renewals.
The rising incidences of catastrophic events could lead to the further hardening
of reinsurance rates, which may be reflected in the Apr’25 renewals.
In India, there was a period of softening prices, driven by the desire to garner
market share and boost top-line growth. However, with increasing pressure
from reinsurers, insurers are now following a more disciplined approach to
pricing. They are focusing on aligning with the burn cost rates recommended by
IIB, which will be modified annually based on the market environment.
While many players focused on expanding their market share through deep
discounts, players like ICICIGI remained prudent over the past nine months,
implementing price corrections of ~10-15%. With the return of pricing discipline,
as reflected in Jan’25 renewals, ICICIGI has also increased its prices for fire
insurance and anticipates further price hikes in response to the continued
hardening of reinsurance rates.
According to media articles (Moneycontrol), fire GWP could witness a 60%
growth in 2025, with many insurers raising prices by as much as ~80%.
Price hike seems inevitable
Insurers keen on maintaining a profitable stance
ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI)
The insurer has been at the forefront of adopting the latest technologies such as
IoT, drone usage, and satellite monitoring to enhance physical risk management
and assess risks more accurately. ICICIGI provides curated suggestions to clients
for process enhancements, boosting operational efficiency and improving client
safety.
In FY24, the second edition of the SalaamMSME program was launched to raise
awareness about ICICIGI’s business insurance solutions and enhance
engagement with fast-growing MSMEs
ICICIGI’s prudent risk selection approach led to the exit from certain businesses
in the past due to viability concerns. While this resulted in a decline in YTDFY25,
the company’s loss ratios improved to 50.1% (70.6% in 9MFY24). Investments in
technology to enhance underwriting and claims processing are expected to help
ICICIGI gain market share moving forward.
Bajaj Allianz General Insurance (BAGIC)
BAGIC’s digital capabilities are a key driver of growth. In FY24, the company
launched a rapid claims settlement platform to automate the process for the
commercial lines segments. The company has also launched a digital chatbot
tailored for property insurance, enhancing underwriting and other policy
issuance procedures.
The company launched the Udyam Seva Portal to cater to the requests of
corporate and MSME clients. It also leverages advanced technologies like drone
inspections to expedite assessments.
BAGIC expects the price hike to be positive for the industry and the
sustainability of these hikes to be beneficial for its growth. The company
witnessed a 7% YoY growth in fire GWP during 9MFY25, garnering the highest
incremental market share in the industry. Fire loss ratios improved to 60.3% in
9MFY25 (62.9% in 9MFY24), driven by cautious business selection. The company
6 March 2025
2
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
anticipates 10-15% growth in its commercial lines business segment as a result
of the price hike.
Go Digit
Go Digit is conducting business with the top 80 corporates of the country, in
various capacities. The company is focusing on increasing its presence in
INR500m and below as well as INR5b and above categories in the fire segment.
The company is continuously building AI tools to enhance the underwriting
capabilities in the commercial business. It launched a portal for customers to
purchase marine insurance, which has been receiving significant traction.
Go Digit is expanding its capacity in the fire segment, with the business
becoming viable again due to upward pricing revision. The company’s flattish
growth in the fire segment has been better than that of the industry. The use of
AI tools to enhance underwriting has helped reduce the fire segment loss ratio
to 62% in 9MFY25 (96% in 9MFY24). The company is also leveraging the
bancassurance channel to capture business from small corporates.
Reiterate BUY on ICICIGI; leadership in fire segment to boost growth
In YTDFY25, ICICIGI witnessed a 7% YoY decline in the fire segment, driven by
prudent risk selection and the exit from businesses facing viability issues.
However, price hikes across the industry are expected to make more businesses
viable.
ICICIGI is the largest private insurer in the fire segment, holding a 13.4% market
share in YTDFY25. We remain positive on ICICIGI’s ability to capitalize on growth
opportunities in the fire segment, especially with pricing discipline returning to
the market.
While volume growth in the auto sector will be a challenge, value growth driven
by premiumization and fuel selection (EV vs ICE, CNG vs Petrol) will remain
strong. With stricter EOM implementation, we expect some semblance in group
health pricing, which will support group health profitability.
We reiterate our BUY rating with a one-year TP of INR2,100 (premised on 32x
FY27E EPS).
Exhibit 1:
ICICIGI’s financial summary
INRb
NEP
U/W Profit
PBT
PAT
EPS (INR/share)
EPS Growth (%)
BVPS (INR/share)
Ratios (%)
Claims
Commission
Expense
Combined
RoE
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2024
168.7
-9.8
25.6
19.2
38.9
11.0
242.8
70.8
17.0
15.5
103.3
17.2
43.8
7.0
2025E
191.3
-9.6
34.3
25.7
52.3
34.2
278.7
69.9
18.6
14.5
103.1
20.0
32.6
6.1
2026E
206.8
-9.3
39.2
29.4
59.7
14.2
322.1
69.2
18.9
14.5
102.5
19.9
28.6
5.3
2027E
239.2
-9.3
44.4
33.3
67.6
13.3
373.5
68.9
18.7
14.3
101.9
19.5
25.2
4.6
6 March 2025
3
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
Exhibit 2:
Fire insurance GWP growth declined in FY25
Fire GWP (INRb)
36.1
26.8
7.0
YoY growth
Exhibit 3:
Industry GWP mix (%) – commercial at 10%
Fire
Engineering
Motor
Health
20.0
37.6
31.7
1.9
8.9
Others
20.0
38.7
31.2
1.9
8.2
11.1
7.2
26.4
(5.8)
27.3
36.6
1.4
8.4
24.8
29.5
34.1
1.5
10.1
23.4
33.3
31.9
1.6
9.8
22.1
35.3
31.6
1.7
9.3
159
201
215
239
257
212
Source: GI Council, MOFSL
Source: GI Council, MOFSL
Exhibit 4:
Key private players gaining market share in the fire insurance industry
Market Share
NIA
ICICI Lombard
BAGIC
Tata AIG
HDFC ERGO
United India
Oriental
SBI General
Reliance General
National Insurance
Go Digit
FY20
19.3
11.2
7.7
6.0
6.2
9.8
8.4
7.5
4.4
6.4
1.3
FY21
18.7
12.3
8.2
7.1
5.8
8.8
8.2
7.0
4.3
5.9
0.8
FY22
18.4
12.8
8.9
7.6
6.2
8.5
7.5
6.3
4.4
5.1
1.2
FY23
17.7
12.8
9.0
7.9
7.1
7.9
6.7
6.8
4.2
4.9
1.7
FY24
17.1
13.1
9.3
8.1
7.0
8.1
6.1
7.1
4.3
4.6
1.9
YTD;FY25
15.7
13.4
10.6
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.2
6.1
5.0
4.6
2.1
Source: GI Council, MOFSL
Exhibit 5:
Fire loss ratios impacted by rising catastrophic events in FY24
Loss Ratio of Key Players (%) - Fire Insurance
NIA
ICICI Lombard
BAGIC
Tata AIG
HDFC ERGO
United India
Oriental
SBI General
Reliance General
National Insurance
Go Digit
Industry
FY19
113.1
83.2
74.4
74.9
53.3
89.5
112.5
74.0
54.3
55.9
220.4
90.5
FY20
76.1
64.0
68.0
61.5
70.0
130.1
79.6
55.4
37.3
77.1
78.1
90.0
FY21
74.1
63.7
54.5
39.4
74.8
58.4
53.6
53.4
55.9
71.3
58.2
65.1
FY22
62.3
53.1
57.0
56.4
62.6
58.5
61.7
53.9
38.2
87.5
51.6
60.3
FY23
71.3
49.3
35.2
46.8
58.4
69.9
58.1
51.7
29.0
53.5
38.2
58.0
FY24
80.1
62.2
47.4
64.8
87.4
78.0
105.7
88.3
50.5
82.6
85.7
78.3
Source: IRDAI, MOFSL
6 March 2025
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
Exhibit 6:
Impact of key catastrophic events; protection gap remains elevated
Catastrophic Event
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana floods
North India floods
Gujarat floods
Cyclone Michaung
North India floods
Cyclone Biparjoy
Cyclone Tauktae
Cyclone Yaas
Cyclone Amphan
Western and Southern India floods
Cyclone Fani
Kerala floods
Chennai floods
Cyclone Hudhud
J&K floods
North-east floods
Year Economic Losses (INRb)
2024
-
2024
-
2024
-
2023
120
2023
150
2023
60-80
2021
150
2021
200
2020
1,000
2019
710
2019
120
2018
300
2015
150
2014
715
2014
388
2014
393
Insured Losses (INRb)
5
4
22
25
12
15
15
7
15
20
12
25
49
42
16
16
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 7:
ICICIGI fire GWP declining in FY25
ICICIGI Fire GWP (INRb)
YoY Growth (%)
Exhibit 8:
ICICIGI GWP mix (%) – commercial at 15%
Fire
14.0
Engineering
14.1
20.0
13.9
21.7
46.1
3.0
15.3
Motor
16.0
Health
16.1
27.8
38.9
3.6
13.6
Others
46.7
18.0
28.0
39.0
3.0
12.0
40.1
10.8
11.0
22.8
25.6
40.8
3.1
14.5
10.3
-7.1
50.3
2.1
10.8
48.9
2.5
14.5
18
25
27
31
34
29
Source: GI Council, MOFSL
Source: GI Council, MOFSL
Exhibit 9:
BAGIC fire GWP growth better than the industry
BAGIC Fire GWP (INRb)
YoY Growth (%)
Exhibit 10:
BAGIC GWP mix (%) – commercial at 14%
Fire
Engineering
Motor
Health
Others
29.5
35.2
15.5
12.6
10.7
7.0
31.1
17.2
40.9
30.8
16.7
37.6
25.5
23.2
35.4
1.9
14.0
27.1
22.0
34.9
1.9
14.0
25.9
31.9
28.6
2.0
11.6
18.9
40.6
26.7
2.1
11.7
12
17
19
22
24
22
1.2
9.6
1.8
13.2
Source: GI Council, MOFSL
Source: GI Council, MOFSL
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
6 March 2025
5
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
NOTES
6 March 2025
6
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
SELL
NEUTRAL
UNDER REVIEW
NOT RATED
Expected return (over 12-month)
>=15%
< - 10%
< - 10 % to 15%
Rating may undergo a change
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
-
-
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall be within following 30 days take
appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures
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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in
the business of providing Stock broking services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com. MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National
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its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member of
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MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or
derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial
instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and
other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are
completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
MOFSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOFSL
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The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer,
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MOFSL has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research
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6 March 2025
7
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Sector Update | Financials
-
-
-
-
-
-
received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific
recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent
conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
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