26 July 2012
2QCY11 Results Update | Sector: Information Technology
Patni Computer Systems
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
18,871
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
5,680
PATNI IN
130.4
510/306
-7/-30/-34
42.0
0.9
CMP: INR459
TP: INR337
Neutral
Patni's 2QCY11 operating numbers were way below estimates, with USD revenues declining 3.4% QoQ to USD
183.8m (v/s our estimate of 2.3% QoQ increase to USD194.7m). The decline was led by broad-based sluggishness
in volumes and drop in onsite pricing.
Though the management indicated that 2QCY11 revenue may be the bottom, it expects only a modest growth going
forward from current levels. This is corroborated by the fact that Patni's top client, who was also the only common
client for the two entities (iGate and Patni) has expressed interest in moving future projects from new programs to
iGate.
SGA costs (excluding one-time severance charge of USD17.5m) increased 250bp to 21.6%, USD39.6m (up from
USD35.5m in 1QCY11), and are expected to stay in that range. Even depreciation and amortization increased to
USD10.3m, up from USD7.3m in the previous quarter, and is expected to be higher by USD2m in the next three
quarters. Higher costs and lower revenues drove the plunge in PAT, which declined 25% QoQ to INR0.9b (excluding
one-time severance costs, v/s estimate of INR1.1b).
With higher expenses here to stay and growth to remain modest over the near-to-medium term for Patni, we believe
that the ambitious targets of the management (25% EBITDA margin by 2HCY13 and revenue of USD1.6b for the
combined entity) are unlikely to gain much ground over the next few quarters. We have cut our CY11-12 USD
revenue growth estimates by 3.1-4.8pp and earnings estimates by 11-21% on lower growth and higher costs. Our
revised target price is INR337, based on 10x CY12E earnings.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); Tel: 3982 5424