26 July 2011
1QFY12 Results Update | Sector: Real Estate
Godrej Properties
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
18,518
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
5,575
GPL IN
69.8
845/545
14/39/23
55.5
1.3
CMP: INR794
TP: INR744
Neutral
Revenue up 217% YoY, down 60% QoQ:
GPL has reported 217% YoY jump (60% QoQ decline) in revenue to INR1.3b,
as several additional projects began contributing to revenue over FY11. The QoQ drop in revenue is attributable to one-off
boost in recognition during 4QFY11, with Frontier (Gurgaon) and Prakriti II (Kolkata) crossing 20% threshold in that
quarter. During 1QFY12, the key revenue contributors were (a) Garden City (Ahmedabad) - INR380m, (b) Waterside
(Kolkata) - INR323m, (c) Prakriti (Kolkata) - INR232m, (d) Frontier (Gurgaon) - INR176m, (e) Genesis (Kolkata) - INR114m,
and (f) Eternia (Chandigarh) - INR53m.
EBITDA margin declined from 29.2% in 4QFY11 to 15.4%:
EBITDA grew 1422% YoY to INR202m, while EBITDA
margin dropped from 29.2% in 4QFY11 to 15.4%. Higher contribution (~25% of total revenue) from low margin commercial
projects in Kolkata and lower contribution from higher margin Gurgaon projects (Frontier accounted for just 13% of
revenue v/s 23% in 4QFY12) are the key reasons for the decline in EBITDA margin.
Sales booking strong, up 70% YoY; robust launch plan for FY12:
GPL maintained strong growth in sales booking
during the quarter, with ~70% YoY jump to INR2.3b (0.56msf) as against INR1.3b (0.53msf) in 1QFY11. This includes
~0.24msf of sales in Garden City III (Ahmedabad), ~0.12msf in Prakriti (Kolkata), 0.07msf in Frontier (Gurgaon), and
0.14msf in commercial projects at Kolkata and Chandigarh. The management has for a slew of new launches of 7-8msf
over FY12, including new locations such as Hyderabad, Chennai, Kochi and recent acquisitions in Chembur (Mumbai).
Net debt-equity up to 1x; reduction plan linked to commercial monetization:
As at June 2011, GPL's gross/net
debt stood at INR104b/INR9.4b, implying a net DER of 0.1x v/s 0.86x as at March 2011. While a significant portion of
GPL's debt is towards commercial assets in Kolkata and Chandigarh, its deleveraging plan is largely linked to the pace
of monetization of these commercial properties.
Valuation and view:
We estimate GPL's NAV at INR744/share, with core NAV at INR592/share and probability-weighted
option value at INR152/share. The stock trades at ~7% premium to our NAV estimate and at 4.2x FY13E BV of INR189
and 22.7x FY13E EPS of INR38.3. Maintain
Neutral.
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +91223982 5436