4 November 2011
Update | Sector: Utilities
NTPC
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
17,482
5,266
CMP: INR178
TP: INR229
Buy
Captive mines allotment to address fuel supply issues
Key LT positive; can support 18-20GW of incremental capacity
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
NTPC IN
8,245.5
203/160
-2/5/7
1,467.7
29.8
Possible restoration of de-allocated captive mines with reserves of 3b tons
Incremental captive mine allocations to support 8GW capacity
FSA signed for 16m tons in 2QFY12 with Coal India
Y/E March
2011 2012E 2013E
Sales (INR b)
548.7 675.0 770.6
EBITDA (INR b) 125.8 160.1 175.6
NP* (INR b)
79.6
EPS (INR)*
9.7
EPS Growth (%) -5.9
BV/Share (INR)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/ Sales (x)
RoE (%)
82.3
18.4
2.2
13.2
3.2
12.2
88.0 103.2
10.7 12.5
10.5 17.3
89.3
16.7
2.0
11.3
2.8
12.4
96.3
14.2
1.8
11.2
2.6
13.5
Captive coal mines to meet ~45% of incremental coal demand in Twelfth Plan
Mr. Shriprakash Jaiswal (Union Minister of Coal) and Mr. Arup Roy Choudhury
(NTPC CMD) have reiterated restoration of five de-allocated coal blocks of NTPC
(reserves of ~3b tons) very shortly. While NTPC had been re-iterating restoration
possibilities in the past, the comments from Mr. Jaiswal are encouraging.
Coal ministry has further given in-principle approval for allotment of five coal blocks
through government dispensation route for additional ~8GW of capacity. This
further re-enforces the superior positioning of NTPC in the sector, already starved
of domestic fuel and lowering dependence on Coal India for capacity additions.
Thus, a very large part of the fuel requirement for the incremental capacity
commissioning in the 12th Plan will be met through captive mines. These
developments will be a key long term positive, as it lends increased certainty to
an already robust business model of NTPC.
FSA signed for additional 16m tons further lends comfort on existing capacity
NTPC has recently signed Fuel Supply Agreement (FSA) for Farakka (1.6GW),
Kahalgaon (1.8GW) and Ramagundum project (500MW), totalling 16m tons with
Coal India, which were under negotiation earlier. NTPC was thus not "assured" of
committed quantity leading to imported coal usage of as high as ~30%.
Signing of FSA will boost availability factor and improve assurances on recovery
of fixed charge. This is because lower cost of generation (lower imported coal
blending) will enable preference in merit order dispatch, leading to higher
generation/PLFs. We calculate that NTPC is assured of ~70% of its requirement
at 90% ACQ levels for Farakka and Kahalgaon and 45-50% for Ramagundem.
Well placed on fuel sourcing; captive production ramp-up a key; Buy
NTPC's incremental fuel requirement over FY12-17E stands at ~105m tons+,
towards planned capacity addition of ~25GW in Twelfth plan period. Of this, there
exists possibility of 10-12GW on captive coal blocks. Several of these projects
have been awarded under bulk tendering of 800MW sets (7.2GW) and thus project
commissioning provides sufficient time to synchronize the mine development.
Production ramp up at captive mines is crucial and slippages will impact profitability.
2QFY12 PAF of 83.4% (lower than 85%) was impacted due to several one-off
factors like heavy rainfall at NCL/ECL mines, Strike at SECL given Telangana
issue, etc. Further, availability could not be declared even with "physical" availability
of coal at the some stations due to wetness and higher moisture in coal. Given
the one-off nature of these events, management remains confident of achieving
92%+ PAF for FY12 (same as FY11) given higher PAF of 98-99% in 3Q/4Q.
We expect NTPC to deliver net profit CAGR of 14% over FY11-13E. Stock trades
at PER of 14.2x and P/BV of 1.8x on FY13E basis.
Buy
with TP of INR229/sh.
RoCE (%)
13.3 12.9 11.7
* Reported Pre Exceptional Earnings;
factoring in tax gross up by MAT
Shareholding pattern % (Sep-11)
GoI,
84.5
Others,
3.7
Foreign,
3.6
Domestic
Inst, 8.2
Stock performance (1 year)
NTPC
230
205
180
155
130
Sensex - Rebased
Nalin Bhatt
(NalinBhatt@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825429
Satyam Agarwal
(AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825410 /
Vishal Periwal
(Vishal.Periwal@MotilalOswal.com) +91 22 39825417