Metals Weekly
8 November 2011
Metals Weekly
Valuations: Indian companies
Price
EV/EBITDA P/BV
(INR) FY12E FY13E FY12E
Steel
Tata Steel
SAIL
JSW Steel
JSPL
Sesa Goa
Non-ferrous
Sterlite Inds.
HZL
Nalco
Hindalco
468
111
711
577
211
5.6
7.7
7.2
9.7
6.2
4.5
7.5
5.7
8.7
6.1
1.5
1.1
0.9
3.0
1.1
Metal Prices
CMP
7-NOV
HRC Tube grade - Mumbai (INR/ton)3 7 , 1 7 1
HRC (USD/ton) fob CIS
653
HRC (USD/ton) fob China
668
Sponge iron - Raipur (INR/ton)
23,800
Pig iron - Raipur (INR/ton)
24,751
Iron ore spot (USD/ton) cfr China
133
Coke (USD/ton) fob
390
Shred. scrap (USD/ton) fob Rotterdam 3 9 8
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
3m LME (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
3m LME (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
3m LME (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
4,546
2,140
104
763
1,952
94
415
7,825
386
%
-1
4
0
0
0
1
-3
-2
0
-5
-4
-3
-2
1
-2
-1
-3
3
-1
1
0
0
-8
Week
31-OCT
Quarter
% 1-OCT
YTD CY11
% 1-JAN
9 33,998
3
635
-9
736
2 3 19,400
1 7 21,124
-25
176
0
390
-2
406
6
-13
-6
9
-15
-14
12
-16
-12
4,277
2,470
110
699
2,308
109
371
9,346
439
37,625
- 2 38,078
628
-9
718
6 6 9 -10
738
23,800
8 22,000
24,751
1 24,479
1 3 2 -26
179
4 0 0 -10
435
404
-8
434
4,547
2,242
108
783
1,985
93
0
-1
-4
-7
5
1
4,558
2,157
108
824
1,860
93
475
6,800
340
123
123
63
139
4.3
4.7
5.7
5.5
3.4
3.8
3.3
5.1
0.9
1.9
1.3
1.4
Mid-caps
Monnet Ispat
435
Godawari
120
Sarda Energy
123
Tata Sponge
331
Adhunik Metaliks 4 3
Bhushan Steel 3 3 5
Jai Balaji
93
Rain Comm.
29
Prakash Inds.
46
13.7
3.0
9.6
2.1
5.6
8.8
7.4
2.8
2.3
9.2
3.5
6.4
1.2
4.7
8.1
7.8
2.9
1.5
1.2
0.6
0.5
0.9
0.5
1.0
1.1
0.5
0.3
4 2 3 -13
7,885 1 5
399 1 3
27,201
56,003
1,982
1.11
49.3
1,912
Note: Detailed table on pg 19
Source: MOSL
Gold (INR/10gms)
27,898
Sliver (INR/1kg)
55,625
Lead 3m LME (USD/ton)
2,010
Ferro-chrome 6-8%C60%(USD/lb Cr) 1 . 1 1
INR/USD
BDI
49.1
1,766
7 26,077
9 51,100
2
1,961
-3
1.15
0
-6
49.2
1,886
3 6 20,575
2 1 46,065
-21
2,550
-16
1.32
10
0
44.7
1,773
Valuations: Global companies
Price
Steel
A. Mittal
Posco
Nucor
Gerdau
Bao Steel
US Steel
EV/EBITDA P/BV
CY11 CY12 CY11
5.7
4.9
7.2
7.2
7.1
6.2
6.5
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.3
5.4
4.4
4.8
6.0
6.0
5.6
5.9
4.5
4.1
4.5
4.2
0.5
0.9
1.0
1.6
1.1
0.9
0.8
1.3
1.0
2.8
2.0
Source: MMR/LME/Metal Bulletin/SteelPricesIndia/MOSL
EUR 14.7
USD 27.4
USD 39.0
BRL 15.7
CNY 5.4
k KRW 378.5
Non-ferrous
Alcoa
USD 10.8
Teck Res. USD 38.9
Xstrata
BHP
Rio Tinto
GBp 10.0
AUD 37.7
AUD 68.8
Indian steel producers cut HRC prices by > USD20/ton; steel demand
still sluggish; aluminum prices down 5%
Indian steel producers have cut HRC prices by > INR1,000/ton in November.
Demand remains sluggish in a seasonally stronger second half of the financial
year.
Domestic steel prices declined 1.4% WoW for flat products and 0.5% WoW
for long products. Prices of both sponge iron and pig iron were flat WoW at
INR23,800/ton and NR24,751/ton, respectively.
Base metal prices weakened, as political uncertainty in Greece and Italy fueled
further concerns on the European debt crisis. Aluminum and copper spot
prices decl ined 5% and 3% WoW to USD2,118/ton and USD7,775/ton,
respectively. Zinc prices were up 0.2% WoW at USD1,912/ton.
Chinese spot iron ore CIF prices were up 1% WoW at USD133/ton while iron
swaps r ecovered much more sharply by 7-12% WoW.
Steel prices declined in China (down 1% WoW), Middle East (down 3% WoW),
North America (down 2% WoW) and Turkey (down 2% WoW) while prices
were flat WoW in Europe and Russia.
Demand outlook for Europe remains weak. Arcelor Mittal has recently guided
for a weaker 4QCY11 and has deferred some planned steel investments.
1
Note: Detailed table on pg 19 Source: Bloomberg
BSE Metals Index v/s Sensex
BSE Metals Index
Sensex
102
100
98
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Indexed to 100 on 1 November 2011
Individual stock performance table on pg 20
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); Tel:+91 22 3982 5412
8 November 2011
Tushar Chaudhari
(Tushar.Chaudhari@MotilalOswal.com); Tel:+91 22 3982 5425