20 December 2011
Update | Sector: Healthcare
Divi's Laboratories
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
15,175
4,544
CMP: INR738
TP: INR910
Buy
Strong relationships to drive CRAMS growth; generic API
business a cash cow
Expect 18% earnings CAGR over FY11-13; Buy
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
DIVI IN
132.7
843/582
11/12/45
97.9
1.8
Y/E March
2011 2012E 2013E
16.4
6.0
36.4
4.7
4.7
35.7
19.9
7.6
38.3
6.0
6.0
45.4
Revenue (INR b) 13.1
EBITDA (INR b)
4.9
EBITDA mar. (%) 37.6
Rep. PAT (INR b) 4.3
Adj. PAT (INR b)
4.3
EPS (INR)
32.4
Strong relationships with global innovator companies should enable Divi's
CRAMS business to record 25% revenue CAGR over FY11-13.
Worldwide leadership in some of its generic API products enables Divi's
to maintain high profitability; we expect this business to record 19% revenue
CAGR over FY11-13.
Divi's features among the most profitable companies in the Indian
Healthcare sector, with EBITDA margin of 35-40%.
Management guidance for FY12 and FY13 remains strong. We expect 18%
earnings CAGR over FY11-13; Buy.
EPS Gr. (%)
25.7 10.3 27.2
BV/Share (INR) 135.6 158.8 190.2
RoE (%)
25.9 24.3 26.0
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Sales (x)
28.2
22.8
5.4
19.9
7.5
30.1
20.7
4.6
16.4
6.0
32.0
16.2
3.9
12.9
4.9
Frontrunner in Indian CRAMS sector:
Being an early entrant, Divi's Labs has become
a key outsourcing partner for some of the largest innovator companies. It services all
the top-10 global innovator companies. It is now a prominent player in providing custom
synthesis services from India and collaborates with innovator companies all through
the drug development stage to the commercialization stage.
Strong relationships with innovators to drive growth:
Given its strong relationships
with global innovator companies, we believe that Divi's would be a key beneficiary of
increased outsourcing from India. We expect Divi's CRAMS business to record 25%
revenue CAGR over FY11-13.
Among the most profitable companies in Indian Healthcare:
Divi's features among
the most profitable companies in the Indian Healthcare sector, with EBITDA margin of
35-40%, backed by its strong chemistry skills and custom synthesis presence.
Strong capex imparts visibility to future growth:
Divi's has undertaken a capex of
INR2b (spread over FY11-12) on an SEZ. Past track record indicates that the company
generally does not undertake large capex without visibility of customer contracts.
The capex on the SEZ is likely to come up for utilization from FY13 onwards and will
fully ramp up in FY14, driving topline growth.
Strong guidance:
The management has guided 25% topline growth for FY12 and
20%+ growth for FY13, while retaining EBITDA margin at historic levels of 36-38%.
We believe that the strong guidance is partly based on the management's expectation
of revenue contribution from the new SEZ. We estimate topline CAGR of 23.4% for
FY11-13 and average EBITDA margin of 37.4% in this period, led mainly by 25%
revenue CAGR in the CRAMS business.
Expect 18% earnings CAGR over FY11-13; Buy:
Divi's will be a key beneficiary of
increased outsourcing from India, leading to 18% earnings CAGR for FY11-13. EPS
growth would be lower than topline growth due to significant increase in effective tax
rate from 9% in FY11 to 19% in FY13. We estimate RoCE and RoE of 25%+ for the
next few years, led by traction in the high-margin CRAMS business and incremental
contribution from the Carotenoids business. The stock trades at 20.7x FY12E and
16.2x FY13E earnings. Reiterate
Buy,
with price target of INR910 (20x FY13E EPS).
Shareholding pattern % (Sep-11)
Others,
19.1
Promoter
52.2
Foreign,
11.8
Domestic
Inst, 17.0
Stock performance (1 year)
Divis Labs
Sensex - Rebased
900
775
650
525
400
Nimish Desai
(NimishDesai@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5406
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5423