27 January 2012
Re-initiating Coverage | Sector: Diversified
Sintex Industries
BSE Sensex
17,077
S&P CNX
5,158
CMP: INR79
TP: INR112
Buy
Long-term growth story, eclipsed by near-term slowdown
Most concerns priced in; Buy for 42% upside
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity shares (m)
52-Week Range
1, 6, 12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M. Cap. (INR b)
M. Cap. (USD b)
SINT IN
271.0
195
/59
4/-48/-41
19.8
0.4
Financial snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2012E 2013E 2014E
Oper. Income 46.3 49.0 54.4
EBITDA
7.7
7.9
9.0
Adj. Cons. PAT 3.7
3.8
4.4
EPS (INR)
13.8 14.0 16.2
EPS Gr. (%)
-16.1
1.7 15.9
B V/sh.(INR) 100.0 112.1 127.5
RoE (%)
14.6 13.2 13.6
RoCE (%)
11.9 11.4 12.8
P/E (x)
5.7
5.6
4.9
P/BV (x)
0.8
0.7
0.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.9
4.7
3.6
EV/Sale s (x)
0.8
0.8
0.6
We believe Sintex's long-term growth story is broadly intact:
1. Building materials: Offers secular play on government's spending on low cost
housing and social infrastructure e.g. slum rehabilitation is an INR4.5t opportunity.
2. Composites: Expect synergies with overseas subsidiaries and continuous
innovations to drive next phase of profitable growth.
Domestic and global slowdown will stretch Sintex's working capital and moderate its
growth momentum over FY11-14. However, its operating efficiency combined with
lower capex will help sustain positive FCF.
Most concerns are priced in; stock is attractively valued at 5.6x FY13E EPS. Re-initiate
coverage with TP of INR112 (8x FY13E EPS). Buy for ~42% upside.
Building Materials a huge opportunity; Sintex offers excellent play:
Sintex's
Building Materials business caters to two kinds of low-cost construction
opportunities - (1) Housing, via monolithic construction, and (2) Non-housing,
via prefab structures (rural classrooms and healthcare clinics, worker shelters,
etc). Low-cost housing demand will be mainly driven by slum rehabilitation, an
INR4.5t opportunity by our estimates. Here, Sintex's monolithic segment enjoys
a strong order book of INR30b (BTB of 2x TTM) to be executed over 22 months. In
the non-housing segment, expect Sintex's prefab structures business to benefit
from rising government welfare expenditure on social infrastructure projects.
"Plastic-ization" to drive composites growth; Sintex well-placed:
"Plastic-
ization" is an ongoing process of substitution of metals by plastic, driving Sintex's
composites business. We believe Sintex is poised to reap significant gains from
two kinds of synergies from its overseas subsidiaries:
(1) Client synergy:
Many
global clients of Nief (Sintex's European subsidiary) are expected to buy
composites from Sintex India. Subsidiary Bright is already supplying electrical
parts to Schneider. Other clients are also expected to follow shortly; and
(2)
Operating synergy:
Overseas subsidiaries will increasingly source intermediate
products and services (e.g. design) from India, leading to higher margins.
Headwinds may moderate growth, but balance sheet will improve:
Expect
Sintex's FY11-14 revenue CAGR of only 7% and EBITDA CAGR of only 3%, given
multiple headwinds: (1) Deteriorating working capital due to payment delays,
(2) delay/cancellation of projects (ahead of state elections), (3) order slowdown,
etc. However, focus on working capital management and disciplined capex would
improve FCF and balance sheet, to (1) enable USD290m FCCB redemption due in
Mar-13, and (2) bring down net debt-equity to 0.3x in FY14 from 0.6x currently.
Concerns priced in; re-initiating coverage with TP of INR112, Buy:
Sintex stock is
attractively valued at 5.6x FY13E EPS. This, we believe, prices in both (1) growth
slowdown, and (2) other concerns (FCCB repayment, conflict of interest issue
on power venture, etc). We value Sintex at 8x FY13E EPS, which is 33% discount
to its long-term average P/E. Our target price of INR112 offers ~42% upside from
current levels. Re-initiating coverage with a
Buy
rating. We believe recovery in
growth expected in 2HFY13 can provide with further re-rating catalysts.
Shareholding pattern % (Sep-11)
Foreign,
38.6
Others,
18.3
Domestic
Inst, 8.2
Promoter
35.0
Stock performance (1 year)
S i ntex Inds .
S ense x - Reba sed
220
175
130
85
40
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +91 22 3982 5436