27 February 2012
Update | Sector: Metals
Sesa Sterlite
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
17,446
5,281
CMP: INR204
TP: INR218
Neutral
+
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
SESA IN
869.1
Sesa Goa-Sterlite merger: EPS-accretive, but value-dilutive
Vedanta Plc should have paid USD3b for exiting VAL
Sesa Goa (SESA) and Sterlite Industries (STLT) announced the merger and
acquisition of Vedanta Plc's (VED) stake in Malco and VAL (Vedanta
52-Week Range (INR)
331/149
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
-6/-10/-27
Aluminum) as part of an exercise to simplify the group structure. The new
M.Cap. (INR b)
177.3
merged entity would be called Sesa-Sterlite (SS) and have 2.96b shares where
M.Cap. (USD b)
3.6
the promoter's holding will be 58.3%.
The simplification of the group structure was overdue, but it is at the cost of
STLT and SESA shareholders because VED sells its 70.5% stake in the loss-
Y/E March
FY11 FY12E FY13E
Sales (INR b) 92
86
741
making and highly indebted VAL for a consideration of INR16b (at our target
EBITDA (INR b) 52
35
270
price of INR218 for SS, discussed later) by way of 72m shares of SS. On the
NP (INR b)
43
30
109
other hand, STLT has paid INR94b and SESA INR10b by way of cancelled inter
EPS (INR)
49
34
37
corporate deposits (ICDs) to VAL. Since VAL's outstanding debt is INR197b
EPS Gr. (%)
62
-30
8
and STLT had invested INR6.7b in equity, the total EV paid by SS is INR307b
BV/Sh (INR)
147
177
212
for acquiring 100% stake in VAL. In our view, VED should have paid USD3b (or
P/E(x)
4.2
6.0
5.6
664m shares), instead of getting 72m shares in SS valued at INR16b.
P/BV(x)
1.4
1.2
1.0
We expect STLT to get re-rated because of the removal of uncertainties
EV/Sales (x)
1.0
2.3
1.3
regarding the restructuring and introduction of a play on oil prices. Although
EV/EBITDA (x) 1.7
5.6
4.9
VAL's valuation is very disappointing, it is better than earlier situation where
RoE (%)
33
21
19
STLT was largely funding the loss-making projects, while its claim on upside
RoCE (%)
41
25
24
was only to the extent of 29.5%. Further, part of the burden of restructuring
RoIC (%)
159
115
51
would now being borne by SESA. Our target price for STLT based on exchange
ratio of 0.6x of SS is now 10% lower at INR131.
We expect SESA to get de-rated in the near-term because it now has to
Shareholding pattern (%)
Sesa Sterlite - Post merger
unexpectedly share part of the burden of VAL's restructuring. Our target
price for SESA is now 17% lower at INR218.
Promoter
Over the longer term, we expect the stock to get re-rated because a simplified
58.3
group structure would reduce the cost of capital and cash flows become
more fungible. However, cash cows (CAIR and HZ) are still listed and cash
flows are not fungible. Since the loss-making VAL has been merged with the
Others,
profitable copper smelter and iron ore business, USD200m of annual savings
41.7
are expected though reduced tax outgo and reduction in cost of capital.
According to our estimates for FY13, the merged standalone entity
(TcRc+VAL+SEL+SESA) of SS will have a gross debt of INR673b and cash
equivalents of INR61b, while the EBITDA will be INR55b.
Stock performance (1 year)
Excluding the non-fungible cash of CAIR and HZ, the group (SS) will have pro
forma debt of INR733b, cash of INR107b, while the pro forma EBITDA will be
Ses a Goa
Sens ex - Rebas ed
INR79b. Thus, the net debt to EBITDA is implied at 7.9x, which is more relevant
400
from the point of view of servicing loans indicating stress on balance sheet.
325
The transaction is EPS accretive for both SESA and STLT because of increased
250
consolidation of CAIR earnings, which has been acquired at very high
leverage. Overall, we believe that valuations are attractive for STLT/SESA
175
because the merged entity will have multi-commodity play. Though VAL's
100
and SEL's businesses are hardly generating any cash flows presently, there
remains potential of significant upsides as and when these assets turn around.
We maintain
Buy
on
STLT
and
Neutral
on
SESA.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com);Tel:+9122 39825412
Pavas Pethia
(Pavas.Pethia@MotilalOswal.com); +9122 39825413